Daily Thread 27th June

Hello all,

My selections and views today are

Musselburgh 7.55 - Hot Sugar - This isn't a race to get too excited about, with most of the field either making their debut or are returning after a poor debut. Hot Sugar is interesting and I think its overprice to boot. This Kevin Ryan debutant is nicely bred being by the Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid, and whilst he will probably need more of a trip in the future I think from a good draw he is likely to go well here. He needs to bag the rail if possible. 11/2 BOG 1pt

Pontefract 3.15 - Another potentially informative Conditions race that is being cut up by low numbers of entrants and also non runners. Betty Fontaine ran yesterday and still is set to run, so the field could be down to two if she is withdrawn later. These races can turn really tactical and as such I find it too tricky to bet in.

Windsor 6.40 - Kylassie - A race that looks to revolve around the raced horses and Richard Hannon has two that have similar form. Kylassie looks overpriced on her last run at Warwick and I wouldn't be surprised to see her outrun her odds in this race. She stayed on nicely last time out in a race that could prove to be better than this heat, and I think she showed enough progress from her debut to suggest she could run well here. I also think the yard are coming into better form. 0.5pt EW 9/1 BOG

Wolverhampton 4.00 - Repeater - This race looks very interesting but I do like the Cheveley Park runner Repeater, the horse played up before its debut. He wasn't given the hardest time on debut, and I think he will improve for that run and he could prove to be too good for this field. He is rather short in the market mind and thus is only a 1pt bet. 1pt 5/2 BOG


Good luck all

 

Also -

2.15

Amazing Blue Sky

This horse has been catching my eye in recent times and now comes into a ladies jockey race and gets the assistance of the very able Serena Brotherton from the saddle. She rode the horse when it made all at Haydock to win by 5 lengths. The horse then went up in trip and failed to stay in races that were not run to suit, the first being run at a faster than ideal pace and then the second was run to suit a better stayer. The horse still managed to run well in both races and still can go close off this mark. She should be able to dominate on this one today.


Unfortunately the price has gone since I started writing this, but its still available at 5s which is a very fair price

 

Good Morning Nass

Pontefract

2:45-Wisemans Diamond E/W 5/1 BOG

Not won since good spell at end of 2009, but fallen in the weights as a result. Blinkers had positive effect when easily faring best of the pacesetters last time, so one to take seriously.


3:45-Mosaicist E/W 4/1 BOG

Bred to be decent and going the right way,Winning a Yarmouth Maiden on seasonal debut before easily winning over 6f at Kempton the last day.Still progressing and can go very close here.

4:45-Moral Issue E/W 5/1 BOG

Tough and consistent front runner who has been placed in 8 of his last 9 starts.Great attitude and will be placed again here or maybe go 1 better today.

5:15-Regimental 7/2 BOG

Has looked a different horse of late,Holding on to beat a unexposed type at Mussleburgh last week,Prior to that he had won at Haydock.Only raised 3 pound and proberly won with a little in hand the last day.Very good chance of making it 3 wins on the spin here.

Windsor

7:40-Midnight Feast E/W 5/1 BOG

just beaten by Royal Exchange over 6f at Salisbury at the back end of lat year and has been placed both starts since including his only start this year when 3rd on the AW at Lingfield over 7f 2 weeks ago.Should be placed again here.

8:10-Canaveral-11/4 BOG

Gelded over the winter and it seems the penny is finally starting to drop with this fella,Winning at Bath on handicap debut over 1m2f and the returning to score over that same distance again in May.Still improving and can make it a hat trick of wins here.

8:40-Choral Festival E/W 13/2 BOG

Loves it round here and is in good form this season,Placed twice before winning over C+D under this apprentice the last day.Gone up 4LB but the jock negates that with his 5 pound claim.Sure to go close again.

Also done a Canaveral/Regimental WIN DOUBLE which pays 16/1

and Murray to beat gasquet 3-2 which pays 5/1

GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY

 

I agree with Famous wise on Mosaicist. It's my nap of the day. I was given another one in that race - Blanche Dubawi - last night from a fairly reliable source but I don't usually follow other people's tips unless I already like them so I shall stick with my instincts

 

Hello all,its been a v busy weekend here.Still had time to watch aidy saddle the first 3 home in the irish derby.We had lucy russell and peter scud around for drinks last night and the quiz.They happened to mention that BARLIFFY had a v good eway chance tonight at musselburgh.

 

Good morning Nass/Famous: There's a winner up there somewhere? Just godda find it.....................GL today everyone!..................

 

Morning Nassau and Co hope everyone had a good weekend

Nap today is the only Dascombe / Kingscote runner at Wolverhampton in the 4pm Juno the Muffin.

Missed out on Betty Fontaine yesterday, got a nag alert and didn't check my emails, doh!

 

Morning all, quick question.

At Catterick over 5F what is the draw bias?

 

low I would suggest but its not very pronounced.

 

A couple i really fancy today are 2.15 Pontefract FUJIN DANCER 4/1 and 3.45 FAVOURITE GIRL 18/1 took 11/1 last night but seems to have drifted overnight, hopefully it stays that way as i think this one has a cracking EW chance.

Good luck to everyone who plays today

 

The one thing I remember about Catterick was a 25/1 winner that I'd waited months for only to put 1/- ew on it. Having gone through the entire Timeform Racehorses annual one year I unearthed this horse who "showed great alacrity from the gate" and "barely stayed 5f". So I went through all the courses looking for one that had no uphill bits and found Catterick, described almost as downhill all the way. So I waited for this horse to run at Catterick on fast going. Meanwhile I had watched it run on unsuitable courses including the stiff Ascot 5f where it was running everything off their legs until inside the final furlong and was unplaced. Finally the day came; Catterick, firm going 25/1 and up against the top sprinter of the year (Granville Greta, I think). It was an exceptionally fast 5f but my horse won in a photo. The horse was called Conita. How's that for memory.

So my message is look for a horse who is exceptionally fast from the gate but just can't maintain if against top sprinters on stiff tracks. If you can find one it will not have won anywhere else and will be a massive price.

 

Cor blimey, people, it’s bally hot today. The one flicker of good news is that my mole at the Met (Office not ropolitan Police) assures me that temperatures will be much cooler for the rest of the week after today. Let’s certainly hope so, say I.

Anyway as this is an old gee-gee forum rather than one for discussing the weather I’ll get down to ‘brass tacks’ and advise that today is a ‘no bet’ one for me. Very poor racing today, methinks.

Good luck though if you do wager.

 

Great story Ron, thanks for sharing. The first 2 races on Wednesday are 5F races, would be interesting to see if anyone can find a horse that fits the bill.

 

Afternoon all

 

the don, I have to say I like the Bryan Smart Excellette against your lass, has a draw to go to war from and showed enough last time to suggest that this will be ideal. Especially if the ground dries more.

 

Thats the one i would pick out too Nass. Quite pleased with our Jockey booking!

 

It depends on whether you are laying the horse or not (sorry but I think Mr Winston did himself a great injustice with that episode), he is one of the stronger jockeys and he is good on juveniles. I hope they give her a tender ride and let her mature with the race. Good luck with her.

 

Fujin dancer in the opener