Punchestown has a terribly disappointing card in store for us tomorrow. I like Trifolium but at the prices Alderwood is a no brainer and I've taken 3/1. I've put War Singer up three times now and been disappointed three times. Handicap tomorrow. Attracting support. 9/1 each way will do. Last chance. Sizing Europe should have too much for Big Zeb but prices are about right so no bet. If I was betting I'd be on Big Zeb. He shouldn't have beaten SE last year either but did and 4/1 is almost tempting. Sir Des Champs hasn't beaten much thus far but has been impressive and can't be opposed. I quite want Mossey Joe to win for ROTO though but don't see it happening. I hope things improve later this week but fear the worst.
€100K for that bumper is a bit barmy Quel - does it usually throw up a good un? Last year's winner Texas Jack hasn't done much since.
I've backed War Singer at 10/1 EW 5 places with Bet365. He could easily flop but it would seem that this has been the plan and he looks worth chancing in what looks a weakish race. There's a few with a shout but not loads and of the rest I like Leah Claire most. Trifolium should take the beating but looks a poor price with Alderwood a decent opponent, but the ground looks to be in favour of the Gigginstown horse. Sizing Europe looks a banker but he did at Cheltenham too, and here last year and lost in both. Sir Des Champs should take the beating but 1/4 is horrendous considering that Big Buck's could be backed at nearly that price for the Liverpool Hurdle. The more of these shorties I see the better value Big Buck's looks. I'd have Sizing Europe down as the safest of the 3 and he's the biggest price!
Won't be surprised if there's an upset in the 6.40 at Punchestown but Sir Des Champs is by far the best horse in the field.
16.55 Punchestown- Snap Tie- 12/1 Have been eagerly awaiting the come back of this very talented chaser. Was last seen winning @ 1/2fav over 2m at cheltenham back in October. He is being put over hurdles to ease his come back. Although the stable has had a terror of a seaon they are just starting to find thier feet. And with that combined with the bounce back factor he can make a winning return. The only worry will be the ground as his preferred ground on the firm side and with all the rain there has been it is the only negative but he will be a fresh as a daisy and 12/1 looks like a fantastic e/w price
The prize money usually outweighs the quality of runners in it Oddy. I'm considering First To Boogie at 6/1. Barry Connell doesn't often mess about when he buys a horse.
I like Citizenship tmz - think he is a lot better than Chelts run suggests. Btw off topic but how good is this bloke as Louis Walsh and Kevin Webster http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxqd934b8a8
Hope Snap Tie returns finally tomorrow and stays safe and sound Sir Des Champs steps up to 3m (slightly too late for my RSA bet ) but doesnt really get the test I hoped for in terms of opposition. Something tells me Realt Dubh will go a lot better tomorrow, he's interesting e/w. Trifolium should win but this is end of season jumps racing- Midnight Game will probably wake up tomorrow, feel like a good gallop and hose up by about 36 lengths.
Sitting on a 14/1 docket for Mossey Joe with 3 places paid, I sit in anticipation of what he can do tomorrow. I've followed him throughout his career and although he isn't getting much of a look in against the current Gold Cup favourite I'm happy he's been completely underestimated. Although the ground has probably gone against him a bit and I can envisage him pulling like there is no tomorrow early on, I cannot wait to see how he acquits himself tomorrow. Given he's been off the track with an injury, if he gives Sir Des Champs any sort of race tomorrow I'll be very happy and if he beats him I'll be chuffed to bits. Regardless of the result, and even if he under-performs, Mossey Joe is a horse you will be hearing a lot about over the coming 12 months. Trust me on that.
Small, specialist Irish trainer, John Kiely, had his first two runners for over two weeks today- and both bolted up at 15/8 and 6/1 (Saint Gervais & Kilbarry Beauty). In fact he's only run 18 horses in 2012 and had five winners and four other placed horses. There's no doubt he'll be trying hard at Punchestown, and some of this weeks entries are: Saffron Wells (7.15 Tuesday) and Clara Bel La (entered in 7.15 Wed. and 7.15 Thurs.) First time out in a bumper for both (his speciality), Saffron Wells is ridden by Katie Walsh tomorrow.. Current 8/1 (Betfair). Market support should be heeded- likewise for Clara Bel La- whichever race she contests. Carlingford Lough and Seventy Three are both entered in the same two races (3.40 Wednesday and 6.05 Thursday.) Carlingford Lough bolted up last twice and Seventy Three was backed and finished sixth in a valuable 3 mile handicap . Both are worth an interest, whichever races they contest. Note that Seventy Three is also entered on Saturday (5.35)- along with dual winner, Up For The Match, who has risen to a mark of 124- having hacked up last time off 111. Knowing Kiely's astute ability to place his horses, I think all his possible 6 runners can be supported at the meeting and any market moves are always very significant, although he does win with some good prices as well. For those who are not familiar with it , goracing.ie is a comprehensive and excellent site for Irish Racing. It give all trainers' horses performances, entries, jockeys, etc. http://www.goracing.ie/HRI/Home/
The ultimate wingman save this, cracks me up every time particularly how many blokes have chipped in and found the answer helpful
4.55 Punchestown SNAP TIE 12/1 Snap Tie is the most interesting runner of the day in my eyes. Phillp Hobbs lightly raced 10 year old hasn’t been seen on the track since October 2009 but I think he could be absolutely thrown in off his current mark of 137. In his career to date, Snap Tie has finished a narrowly beaten 2nd in a Grade 1 and a Grade 2 race including behind the excellent Harchibald who in his prime was rated 162 and a multiple Grade 1 winner. Snap Tie has lots of excellent form with other top class horses such as beating the multiple Grade 1 winning Katchit, finishing 1L behind the excellent Calgary Bay whilst conceding him 8lb, as well as finishing 3rd behind the excellent Captain Cee Bee and Binocular in the Supreme Novices back in 2008. This form makes him unquestionably well handicapped if retaining his old form and there is no way he would be kept in training for so long if this wasn’t the case. Due to run in the Imperial at Cheltenham, Snap Tie was withdrawn on the day for one reason or another but it certainly demonstrates that he is in good order. Furthermore, Snap Tie has a very good record on the back of a break with 3 of his wins coming on the back of 5 months absences or longer which is a massive positive. Richard Johnson comes over for the one the ride and although he's unproven on the ground, with trainer Phillip Hobbs in good form and having a 31% strike rate at the track I'm certainly willing to risk his ability to go on the ground, especially considering its been raining for a few days and surely Hobbs would have known if the ground was unsuitable.
6.50 Towcester Orang Outan 10/1 Think this 10 year old looks vastly overpriced and hopefully he can revert back to winning ways 14 months after his win over C+D. Trainer Laura Hurley put together a great training performance when getting Orang Outan to win last year on debut for the yard after nearly 2 years off the track and I'm pretty surprised this has been her sole win as a trainer to date. Off only a 3lb lower mark in a Class 4, Orang Outan put in a very game effort to win 1.25L with the front two drawing 15L clear and it certainly was a likeable performance. In his three subsequent start since, Orang Outan has been a bit disappointing on good ground but as a result he looks pretty well handicapped. Tomorrow he returns to Towcester where he's 1-1 and another important factor will be the softer ground conditions. The last twice he has encountered soft ground he has been successful so its another obvious bonus. Jeremiah McGrath is a good jockey booking for this conditional jockey handicap and it represents his only ride of the day. Moreover, he drops into a Class 5 event for the first time in his career so this should represent his easiest career task to date. Looking well weighted and proven at the course, I'm quietly confident Orang Outan can put up a strong performance and go close to winning at what I think is a price that vastly overstates his chances.
I had a good look at the Punchestown handicap last night and War Singer looks an all too obvious Pipe plot but I am surprised none of you have mentioned FIRST IN THE QUEUE. He has dropped to an almost winnable mark and is pretty useful on his day. I wouldnt think Hendo would be wasting his time taking him if he didnt have a squeak. Of the home runners I like LEAH CLAIRE who is admirably consistent and still being given more than a fair chance by the handicapper. At 16-1 and 11-1 I am happy to have them both!
I think both Snap Tie and First In The Queue would prefer better ground. I backed the Henderson horse first time up at Cheltenham this year and very nearly collected. He's dropped back to a nice mark and I will be supporting him again when he gets a bit of good ground. I like Leah Claire too Stick and will probably have a saver on him.
Guys if you want a bit of casual interest in Punchestown tonight then ATR are running a tipping contest for free with 500 quid to the winner. Especially if you think, like me, that its a tricky card to be punting on. Ive put 40 points on Simenon LOL. He is better than we saw at Cheltenham. So i took a gamble.
Can't share your guys enthusiasm fro Snap Tie - he's a top of the ground horse, never run on anything softer than Gd/soft, soft in places, when well down the field in Punjabi's CHampion Hurdle. Plus he has a 921 day absence to overcome and carries top-weight. At the same odds of 12/1 I would much rather be on Burrenbridge Lodge who has proven himself to be tough and consistent on this going all winter. Elsewhere on the card there are plenty of shorties which make little appeal. Midnight Game could surprise Trifolium in the Novice Hurdle but both that race, and the 2 other grade 1s later on the card, lack an e/w perspective due to the small fields and are therefore "no bet". Add in the 2 bumpers which are a minefield and all-in-all it's a bit of an inauspicious start for the Punchestown festival. Hopefully much better to come later in the week.
Im with you on this one Stick, i notice he is Hendersons only runner of the meeting, smells of a plot. If i had one doubt it would be his ability to react over 2 miles on what will be at best Soft and maybe Heavy going, although he does have winning form on the flat over 8f on Soft which is a good indicator and runs off a very nice mark indeed and I make FIRST IN THE QUEUE 14/1 my NAP of the day
