Daily Racing Thread - Thursday 10th Nov 11

After todays success, im going to stick with the Bet 365 4/1+ offers, which tomorrow are the 2.50 and 3.20 at SOUTHWELL.

The 2.50 is a Class 4, 13 Runners, 5f Handicap. The top weight LENNY BEE, returns to the AW where he was a pretty consistent performer with 1 win and 4 places from 6 runs, his only other run on the AW was over C&D when he finished 4th in much better company than on show tomorrow and is 5lb better off for that run.

Another that is on a winning mark and double figure odds is LUCKY MELLOR who also has C&D form off a 2lb higher mark, the down side for me is the change of trainer who is more accustomed to the NH scene and my concern is that he is having a run out before attempting the NH, notwithstanding this if at his best he is well in with a shout and i a very attractive 33/1. TILLYS TALE 7/1 has had two outings at Southwell the first was a fillies handicapped where she duly obliged off the same rating as she runs off tomorrow and from a similar draw. The other was in handicap company which was similar to what is on show tommorow where she was not disgraced.

However, my selection for this race is the very well handicapped SOOPACAL at odds of 33/1, he has a great draw, C&D form and is 7lb better off than his win over C&D back in February.

In the 3.20 which is the Div 2 of the 2.50 over 5f again with 12 runners, I am attracted to the Dandy Nicholls trained CADEAUX PEARL who runs for the first time on the AW surface, and runs off a very nice mark of 77, having raced in Class 1 listed Company when with the Richard Hannon yard of a rating as high as 95 this is a very lenient mark. With the useful claimer Billy Cray on board and a good draw, if the surface suits winning this is well within his grasp and is a knocking EW bet at odds of 16/1.

 

Superb call today Wayward unbelievable well done!

 

Draw 1 is a good draw is it? Not watched today but I would think that middle to high are best using my old fashioned formbook.

Fwiw I like Six Wives @ 11/1 and DLD in the latter at 14/1

Both have good course form and both are the sort who could make hay over the winter months

 

Nass to be honest Im going on past draws from my selections and the fact that the highest percentage of winners today were low to middle. To be honest Im no expert but it worked today, tomorrow may be a different kettle of fish, good luck with your selections all the same.

 

Ingleby Spirit @ ludlow

 

One that interests me greatly today, Dickie Le Davoir in the 3.20 at Southwell. Took some of the 12s on offer last night e/w.

 

Morning all

wake up in a really happy mood thinking of JP doing that Kung Fu voice to try and scare off Dave then read Newcastle have changed the staidum name to the Sports Direct Arena.

SPORTS DIRECT ARENA - it ****ing sounds like somewhere you would play squash and archery ffs, that fat bastard has really done it now don't care how well we are doing at the moment. That Llambias is a bigger **** as well, he has the nerve to say it will bring in 10m which is a new player WHERE the **** is the 35m from Carroll then ? he thinks we will just forget about that. Does anyone even shop at Sports Direct anymore ? I used to get some gear from there when i was like 10 and thought I was some boy but these days it is people from Jeremy Kyle that have all the 5 stripe tracksuit bottoms and the rest of the ****E he sells in there. **** OFF

 

First one i looked at Don, however, i was distracted by the fact that most of his best work has been over further and he seems to be in the grip of the handicapper. On his recent win over C&D back in March he is 9lb worse off and his best form on the AW is generally off a mark of 50-54. My selection is the Ex Hannon sprinter CADEAUX PEARL who has his first run on the AW and runs off a very lenient mark, should he like the surface i think he will destroy the field, interestingly young Billy Cray claims 3lb and gets the ride ahead of regular stable jockey Adrian Nicholls who takes a ride on NADEEN.

Good luck all the same

 

Text from Our Willie

" Heres the good news ya big Galoot, Moon Over Mandalay makes his racecourse debut in the bumper. He is a fine big chasing type but also has some nice speed in his pedigree. Our bumper horses have been running well and, hopefully, this fellow will go close, So tell the work shy fop Oddy to stop dreaming about them Swedish Birds and get lumped on , also have some on Some Target and Blazing Tempo, i fell a treble coming on Dano me boy just in time for Crimbo Stay Frosty Big Fella"

 

Odddy they don't care mate.

Fresh Meat was quality I was crying with laughter at JP

 

SOOPCAL into 16/1, CADEAUX PEARL now 12/1 a whole 21 points gone on my two EW selections since last night, hope the money is an indication of the stables thoughts

 

Thanks for that Wayward, i thought at the price was worth some interest e/w. Will do the r/f with yours just in case!!

Good luck.

 

Win Lucky on the 3 of willies (9/2-11/4-4/5) & Ingleby Spirit (4/1)

Stay Frosty

 

Wayward/roto

a little late but thanks again for superb selections yesterday. I know you are not dancing men/christmas crackers types of guys but from me

 

Godd afty all... Well i relented on giving any money away yesterday... (though i should have listened to you wayward. missed your 25/1 shot... Nevermind, more fishes as they say...)

And to be honest i dont think any money will be parting from me today... Having said that Taunton has a few that closer to the time i might play on...

Drumbeater has a good chance in the opener, 1.10, currently 9/2... Dancewiththedevil, 1.40, has shortened up into 7/2, was 11/2 earlier and i did like this one lto, though he struggled and came home in 3rd... Aines Delight in the 3.10 is another one that i like to... 10/3 currently...

Good luck to all who play...

 

2.50 Southwell

On The High Tops 25/1

Ruth Carr's 3 year old gelding looks to have a pretty good chance on what is his AW debut. On The High Tops is the sort who goes well fresh, winning on his debut and on his seasonal reappearance this year when nearly 6 months off the track. Although he's not been off as long this time, he been off about 6 weeks so I think this should hopefully be enough of a break to help him. He's also on a very fair mark and is 3lb lower than when winning at Thirsk in June. Although there are clear doubts about whether he'll take to the fibresand, looking through his ancestry it certainly looks the she should. I think it is also quite interesting that On The High Tops is fitted with blinkers for the first time and that could eek out further improvement. Andrew Mullen takes the ride tomorrow and although he's 0-13 when riding for Carr, it is quite interesting that he has ridden On The High Tops 3 times before when with Tom Tate including his last win which is rather interesting. Although not prolific recently, Ruth Carr has been amongst the winners so I wouldn't be off put by that at all and if there is a bias towards horses drawn on the stands rail then On The High Tops looks to have a lovely draw in 13. There is a few unknowns so I wouldn't be investing heavily in this but Bet365's stand out 25/1 looks much too big.

3.20 Southwell

Bookiesindex Boy 16/1

I took 33s last night but still think he's worth a bet.Another selection that needs a little bit of faith with is J R Jenkins highly tried 7 year old who has had 75 races to date. Although he is 2lb out of the handicap here, he is still very well treated on his old form. He goes quite well around here and boasts 2 wins over C+D off marks of 64 and 72, the latter coming back in February of this year. The form of that race is very strong with the 2nd Where's Reiley winning twice subsequently at the track: once off the same mark and off 6lb higher also. These were his last 2 runs so that form could look ever stronger. Since then he has been largely disappointing although he did put up a good effort at Brighton off a much lower turf mark in July. There are a fair few positives for tomorrow. Firstly, his blinkers are refitted after competing without them for his last 3 races so I think that should hopefully get a bit of improvement out of him. Secondly, Joe Fanning looks a very good jockey booking and he has only ridden once for Jenkins before. He also rides for Jenkins in the previous race on Monsieur Jamie who looks to have a good chance so it could be a case that Jenkins is going for a big day tomorrow. He races here effectively off a mark of 66 and on his old form he looks to have a pretty good chance. Once again if there is a stall bias towards the stands rail he looks ideally positioned and although this horse travels like a dream and finds nothing off the bridle lets hope he can last out and take this down!

4.28 Meydan

Lowdown 33/1

Going to take a chance on a former Mark Johnston horse who popped up in my horse tracker tonight after ages of not seeing him. The main reason I haven't seen him is that he has moved across to the UAE to be trained by a certain I Mohammed. He's had 2 runs for his current trainer, both coming back in February at Jebel Ali where he was pretty poor but he may not have taken to the dirt (according to timeform) but I have no idea about what sort of surface it is over there so I'll have to take their word on it! He comes here after a decent break but that should be no concern as he finished a head 3rd after a 6 month break at Lingfield - his only outing on the AW in England. He's back down to his last winning mark where he was a very impressive winner of a big handicap in Hamilton in July 2010. Antioco Murgia looks a decent jockey booking and his 5lb claim allows Lowdown to get in here off bottom weight of 8-2. The trainer also has the favourite in this race who is a lightly raced 4 year old who is unbeaten at the track but this is a huge step up in class for him and I am quite willing to back his stable mate at a much bigger price