Friday's racing comes from Sandown and Exeter over the jumps plus 3 flat meetings on the artificial surfaces at Lingfield, Wolverhampton and Dundalk. Sandown begin their 2 day Tingle Creek festival with a cracking card featuring the Winter Novices Hurdle (sponsored by Neptune Investment Management - who I applaud for putting so much money into the sport) and the Sportingbet Future Stars Chase. The Winter Novices Hurdle features the horse that (to date) has got me the most excited this NH season - Phillip Hobbs Fingal Bay (NAP). An impressive bumper winner last season, he was rumoured to be the best horse his trainer has ever had before going to the Persian War Novices Hurdle and tanking home from an admittedly weak field (although the 3rd has since won impressively over the larger obstacles). Fingal Bay then went to Cheltenham for the Grade 2 sponsored also by Neptune and coming to the 2nd last had them all hard at it. He absolutely clattered that hurdle but it barely slowed him down and up the run-in he pulled readily clear from a good field including several previous winners and subsequent easy Newbury scorer Sivola De Sivola. Nicky Henderson saddles Simonsig who really could be anything and Paul Nicholls sends Jump City (looks held on a line through Well Regarded), and Henry De Bromhead sends over Sizing Symphony who has racked up a hat trick of novice hurdle wins. This is certainly Fingal Bay's stiffest test to date and I hope (and expect) Richard Johnson to make plenty of use of him as he clearly stays beyond the 2m4f trip. I have taken some 13/8 on him Thursday evening. If he takes this well one would expect him to be aimed at the sponsors race on the Wednesday at Cheltenham although I think he has the stamina for the Albert Bartlett, given how he powered up the hill at Cheltenham last time. The Future Stars Chase sees RSA Chase winner Bostons Angel with one main opponent, Paul Nicholls unexposed chaser Royal Charm. I think it is between these 2 but a no bet race for me. Exeter also hosts a cracking novices chase featuring Notus De La Tour, Shammick Boy and the first 2 home in the 2009 Triumph Hurdle, Zaynar and Walkon. Notus De La Tour has looked a very accomplished novice in 2 starts thus far and I think he has the beating of Shammick Boy and Zaynar. The one who could give him a race is Walkon if he jumps well, and the 2 could well reoppose at the festival later on the season. For now I will take David Pipe's charge to prevail. One that caught my eye in the bumper is Caroline Keevil's Southfield Theatre. By Kings Theatre out of Chamoss Royale, who won 4 times for Paul Nicholls (including on debut), this one will want further but I can see him staying on well at the end of the race and might grab a place at a tasty price.
I've been waiting for the debut of Prescient for Ger Lyons for a long time and this happens in the 6.30 at Dundalk tomorrow. This 3 year old filly made her debut in July last year when she posted an excellent 3rd 1.75L behind the excellent Misty for me and 0.5L behind Katla who is a dual Listed winner and is now rated 105. Back in 4th was Why who is herself a 96 rated horse who has been campaigned in predominantly Listed and Group Class (although never a factor) by Aiden O'Brien since. A 170,000G purchase, she is quite a well bred filly and it has been really disappointing to see her lack of progression since her debut. She has disappointed on every start subsequently and has not even managed to be a factor even off a rating as low as 69 since (although she ran an ok race 2 starts back in July at the track when beaten 2.5L). I think its a strong indication that this filly is far better than what she has shown as she has left Frank Dunne to join the excellent Ger Lyons stable. Her debut for this yard comes after over a 4 month break which should be definitely enough time for Ger Lyons to revitalise her if she is ever going to recapture her old form. She looks to have a tough task on her official ratings but with Gary Phillips 7lb claim she only has 7lb to find with favourite Duff and 17lb with Angel's Pursuit. She has a handicap mark of 66 and if Ger Lyons can return her to her former self then she looks incredibly well handicapped on her debut run. She's 25/1 tomorrow which I think is a fair reflection of her chances but if she shows any glimpes of regaining her ability tomorrow she's definitely one to keep an extremely close eye on this season. I've popped a little message on Ger Lyons Facebook to see if he'll say how she's got on at the yard and if he replies I'll update the page.
2.20 Lingfield If You Whisper 20/1 Quite like the look of Mike Muprhy's unexposed 3 year old who looks a very big price in my eyes for what represents a drop in class. After his first two races, If You Whisper took a big step forward when finishing 0.75L behind Towering Spirit over 1m at Kempton being collared close home after battling against the fence to get a clean run. The form of that race looks decent, with Sinfonico 1.5L back in 4th winning off a mark of 84 subsequently. The 5th Groomed who was 3.25L behind If You Whisper winning off a mark of 79 too so it wasn’t a bad maiden at all. After this, If You Whisper justified odds on favouritism when winning a 5 runner contest at Southwell by a length to Mazovian and although the form of that race isn’t very good, the horses have in behind have won in lower grades and it showed he is able to win which is important. On his 5th start back in January, If You Whisper made his handicap debut off a mark of 78 and started as the outsider of the field in a 4 runner Class 4 handicap here at Lingfield but ran a very good race to finish 1L behind the winner The Tichborne. It was a steadily run race so I am inclined to believe that the form of this race is genuine. The form of that race look promising with the winner placing twice off a 4lb higher mark, including a very narrow 0.62L 3rd in the Britannia Stakes behind the excellent Sagramor. Further to this, the 3rd that day Amwell Pinot has won since off a 1lb off 91 higher mark and was 1L behind If You Whisper. If You Whisper made his reappearance run after being off since for 7 months and although he was disappointing he may well have needed this reappearance run and I’m willing to forgive that effort. 2 starts back If You Whisper ran at the end of September in Kempton when finishing 6L back in 8th over 7f off 77. After slightly missing the break, If You Whisper was outpaced at the start of the race and plugged on OK in the home straight although he was too far back to be a contender and would never have gotten to those in front of him anyways. That said, it was still a slightly encouraging run and he showed that he still maintains his ability. LTO If You Whisper stepped up to 1m2f for the first time and shaped rather well but was ultimately disappointing as he didn't really pick up when asked in the home straight at Kempton in a Class 4. That was off a mark of 75 and he was well supported before the off, normally a very telling sign for a Murphy horse, so I think that a lot better was expected of him. Tomorrow, He races tomorrow off a mark of 72 which is 6lb lower than his 2nd to The Tichborne at his only appearance at the track so he clearly goes well on this surface. This represents a drop in class to Class 5, the first time he has been in a class this low since his 2 year old days.Tony Culhane takes the ride tomorrow for the 4th consecutive time and it represents his only ride of the day, as well as Murphy's only runner. The draw in stall 11 isn’t ideal but If You Whisper generally likes to be slightly off the pace so it shouldn’t be a grave concern. This 3 year old gelding has only 8 starts to date so is clearly unexposed, and I fully believe he will be able to defy his current mark in the near future. At a track where he clearly goes well, I think the 20/1 currently on offer looks much too big and if stripping fitter for his 3 recent runs at a distance I think will suit him best hopeful of a nice run tomorrow at a big price.
Evening all A cracking day of fridays racing tomorrow- A couple of selections for me tomorrow; 13.20 Sandown- Semi Colon- Is carrying top weight @ 11st 12 but an intresting fact 6 of the 9 past winners have carries more than 11st 4 also favourites have had a good record in this race. He had an impressive return over hurdles at cheltenham and if he can follow that up to his chasing career he will go very close 13.55 Sandown- Fingal Bay- A very intresting race in which again favourites do well with all 12 races with winners returning at no bigger than 11/2. Also this is surely is going to have an impact at this years festival betting. Phillip Hobbs rates this horse very highly and why shouldnt he has hasnt done anything wrong in his last 3 races.. He is definately one to keep following till he looses his unbeaten form! Im pretty sure he will have an impressive career over fences later on too! 14.30 Sandown- Bostons Angel (NAP)- Last years RSA winner fits all the bill to win this .7 yr olds have a good record with 6 of the last ten winning. Which takes out the main danger to him in Royal Charm. He was also in contention all the way at down royal last month when unseating his rider. I shouldnt take too much notice of that run- he just needed a run to get back to scratch and blow the cobwebs away! So he should be back on track and this should get him back on the winning road to cheltehnam
A horse can't regain the RSA crown Woolly - the race is for novices only so can't be won twice by the same horse
Surely Bostons Angel will be going for the Gold Cup at Cheltenham Woolcombe? I'd expect the RSA winner to be winning with ease tomorrow if he is heading for the Gold Cup, Quinz was dissapointing on his seasonal reappearance at Ascot and even recieving weight from Bostons he shouldn't bother the favourite, I think the Nicholls runner will give him most to do, Showed abit of promise last year as a 5 year old racing the older horses and Nicholls/Walsh need a decent Friday, I cannot remember the last time they had one. I agree with Fingal Bay (NAP) in the 1.55, Phillip Hobbs reckons hes one of the most talented hes had through his hand and I've been really impressed with him in all his 3 starts, Looks to have a big future...
I suppose tomorrow will give JH a big indicator in where his season will go. Currently he is a 25/1 shot for this years GC. And youre right I can see him running in the race but he should and I reckon he will win with ease tomorrow!
2.20 Lingfield: STRIKE FORCE 12/1 e.w (B365) Trained by C V Lines, who is a promising trainer making a name for himself 4 wins and 6 places from just 25 runners, Strike Force is currently 2lb above his career best and therefore will need to show some improvement to win off todays mark of 69. That said, Mathew Cosham takes off a handy 5lb, and having had a 3lb claimer on board LTO, Strike Force is actually 2lb better off for a 0.75L defeat over Course and Distance to Where's Susie. Where's Susie (75), Reem Star (77), and Pittodrie Star (79) were the first three home that day, and the blanket finish against horses of that standard suggests that a mark of 69 is within Strike Force's reach, especially with the 5lb claim effectively allowing him to run off 64. Also consider who was behind him that day- Green Wadi (78), Al Shazah (80), Dubai Bounty (80) again suggests we should view his close 4th as solid enough form and also makes a strong case for arguing that todays race on paper is a weaker race. 1.55 Sandown: SIZING SYMPHONY 7/1 This is where we really get to measure how far this horse has come and perhaps how far he can go. He was impressive at Cheltenham when comfortably beating a pair of decent yardsticks - the 138-rated Bold Addition, and the very easy double subsequent winner Peckhamecho, who ought to be 130-bound itself. Fingal Bay is rated 144 and the comfortable 7-length beating that SS gave to a 138-rated horse suggests he can bridge the 6lb gap in ratings. I don't think there is a huge amount of difference in the strength of either form, and at 7/1 Sizing Symphony looks a cracking price to take a chance on with more still to come. Fingal Bay got away with a mistake under pressure last time but this is a hot field and I don't think he will get away with it today, and I am hopieful that Sizing Symphony might have a bit more in the battle at the business end.
Oddy you were saying today that you couldn't find a winner but just seen that your 10 to follow is in profit!
Is it just me that thinks Fingal Bay might be vulnerable tomorrow? The ground is likely to be goodish and the 2m4f trip might make this more a test of speed than stamina. Fingal Bay has looked all about the latter so far and I fancy that Simonsig, himself very highly regarded, might have a bit too much toe for him. I am a huge fan of the horse and have backed him the last twice but I just think conditions might be more in favour of the Henderson horse. I can see Simonsig being favourite for the Neptune and Fingal Bay for the Albert Bartlett at the Festival. Only too happy to be proven wrong. They are both very exciting, no doubt about it, and it looks a top quality renewal.
Nice to see the DT in the hands of a punting expert. Onya mate. A quick scan of the meetings today led me to Exeter. I've loved that name since a kid when I read of the Battle Of The River Plate. With a four miler on offer, it comes down to guts, just like those brave souls who took on the Graf Spee. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_River_Plate So I figure as these testing events are quite often won by something down in the weights. Most of them though look up against it. I was left with El Diego who will carry just 9.12 and is as fit as. The trip is the question though. EW me thinks.
You do like those marathons don't you Cyc? Have you ever seen the Velká pardubická mate? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velká_pardubická Amazing to think Tiumen has won this 3 times on the bounce
Morning all. Yes Danbo was going to come on and point that one out!! There wasnt a market that i could see but hope someone got on. Did anyone see / get a price on O'Neil? Sorry to go with some on here but am keen on Strikeforce e/w and Fingal Bay. Good luck all
Really excited to see Walkon today, had the world at his feet as a juvenile hurdler and still looked to be a chaser in the making when he belatedly returned to the track. I think he will give NDLT a race off the weights. He is my Nap of the day.
