Off Topic Coronavirus

[Star of David Bardsley]

So, Professor Whitty admits that the most important mortality figure is "all cause mortality". I haven't heard him say this before, although I haven't listened to all these briefings. If that's his most important figure, then why the hell aren't we being given it every day (accepting that there's a delay in obtaining some data)?

I accept that COVID-19 is causing a spike in these figures compared with previous years and/or the average over the past 5 years... but how much of a spike, and is it of sufficient substance to crash the economy?

Yes, I know, Stan, the same question again and again and again...

Is it really an either/or? If we keep things open the spike is much higher (from CV and non-CV deaths) and you all probably wipe out vast swathes of the NHS workforce so I don’t think it’s a fair comparison.

I like Whitty. He comes across as genuine because he’s not been coached to give a certain response.

 

[bobmid]

Michael Gove’s daughter got a test so there must be loads.

He's a slimy little toad. Why is his daughter more important that frontline doctors, nurses, paramedics etc? I actually despise this man. A horrible slimy little weasel. It's actually quite disgusting that this has happened. One rule for the elite hey

 

[Star of David Bardsley]

He's a slimy little toad. Why is his daughter more important that frontline doctors, nurses, paramedics etc? I actually despise this man. A horrible slimy little weasel

He’s one of our own, he’s one of our own, Michael Gove he’s one of our own.

 

[Uber_Hoop]

I thought he talked about all cause mortality as an indicator of how well the NHS is coping. If it isn’t coping people will be dying of lots of different things that normally they would be treated for and survive.

Bet they wish numbers of deaths had never been mentioned. What they are to trying to achieve is to avoid the catastrophe of the NHS collapsing, which will certainly lead to thousands of avoidable deaths.

I'm not arguing with your last point - I understand the intention and support it. There may be other strategies that could have achieved the same aim.

I don't think he was referring to all-cause mortality solely in terms of how well the NHS is coping although, again, I understand the point. If he was, then it's only half the story.

I'm told that on average 1,600 people die every day (in just England, I think, but might be the UK as a whole). We're recording 700-900 deaths a day as a result of COVID-19 or, at least, deaths where the virus was deemed present in the deceased. So, to what extent has the balance of 900-700 deaths per day increased over recent weeks?

Don't worry, all rhetorical - I know there's a myriad other factors, such as NHS beds, ventilators, staff, blah, blah, blah.

Note: 92 care homes reporting cases in the last 24 hours. How does that work when the lockdown has been in place for 3 weeks and the incubation period is 7-14 days (or so we're told)? Social distancing cannot be working as intended in these places, surely?

 

[Uber_Hoop]

Is it really an either/or? If we keep things open the spike is much higher (from CV and non-CV deaths) and you all probably wipe out vast swathes of the NHS workforce so I don’t think it’s a fair comparison.

I like Whitty. He comes across as genuine because he’s not been coached to give a certain response.

Yes.

 

[Star of David Bardsley]

Yes.

Oh.

 

[bobmid]

He’s one of our own, he’s one of our own, Michael Gove he’s one of our own.

Abusing his position in my opinion, but hey we are all in this together!....not!

 

[QPR999]

If you read the article it says the total number of deaths could reach 50,000 overall, not that 50k we’re going to die yesterday. ****ing Twitter.

I don't think its Twitter's fault on this occasion. It was The Mirror who composed the headline in the Tweet for it to be perceived in the way that it was. It was deliberately misleading. They should take more care, there are some frightened and vulnerable people out there who don't need to be scared ****less any more than they already are.

 

[sb_73]

I'm not arguing with your last point - I understand the intention and support it. There may be other strategies that could have achieved the same aim.

I don't think he was referring to all-cause mortality solely in terms of how well the NHS is coping although, again, I understand the point. If he was, then it's only half the story.

I'm told that on average 1,600 people die every day (in just England, I think, but might be the UK as a whole). We're recording 700-900 deaths a day as a result of COVID-19 or, at least, deaths where the virus was deemed present in the deceased. So, to what extent has the balance of 900-700 deaths per day increased over recent weeks?

Don't worry, all rhetorical - I know there's a myriad other factors, such as NHS beds, ventilators, staff, blah, blah, blah.

Note: 92 care homes reporting cases in the last 24 hours. How does that work when the lockdown has been in place for 3 weeks and the incubation period is 7-14 days (or so we're told)? Social distancing cannot be working as intended in these places, surely?

https://assets.publishing.service.g...ortality_surveillance_week_15_2020_report.pdf
from the graph in there for for week 15 in England I think we would normally expect about 10,000 deaths and we saw c.15,000. So it looks like there is a significant number of additional deaths either directly or indirectly attributable to the virus. Of course this might be a short term thing, and once the virus dies down we might see lower than expected death rates and it might all level out in the year. But not even I would demand that the government time travels to tell us that for certain.

Not sure about care homes. But those who die from this disease can be ill for 3 weeks after first showing symptoms before dying. Also these deaths need to be registered before they are recorded, and this can happen up to five days after the death has occurred, usually the responsibility of the next of kin (I had to register my dads death a few years ago). I should imagine the registrars are pretty busy, and social distancing makes it even more tricky.

 

[sb_73]

I don't think its Twitter's fault on this occasion. It was The Mirror who composed the headline in the Tweet for it to be perceived in the way that it was. It was deliberately misleading. They should take more care, there are some frightened and vulnerable people out there who don't need to be scared ****less any more than they already are.

Fair enough. Did you click onto the article before posting it? Very poor sub editing.

 

[QPR999]

Fair enough. Did you click onto the article before posting it? Very poor sub editing.

Yes, I did and even that is appalling. The likes of you and I are fortunate enough to see beyond the headline before you even read the article. I'm surprised the Mirror hasn't removed the atrocious Tweet.

 

[sb_73]

Yes, I did and even that is appalling. The likes of you and I are fortunate enough to see beyond the headline before you even read the article. I'm surprised the Mirror hasn't removed the atrocious Tweet.

Have to confess I hadn’t realised it was the Mirrors own twitter stream/account or whatever. Twats.

 

[QPR999]

Note: 92 care homes reporting cases in the last 24 hours. How does that work when the lockdown has been in place for 3 weeks and the incubation period is 7-14 days (or so we're told)? Social distancing cannot be working as intended in these places, surely?

I'd imagine it's due to the carers and other staff having to go home and also go shopping and travel to and from their place of work. My sister is in one of these care homes. It has been in lockdown for over a month now. If the virus gets in there it will kill her.

 

[sb_73]

OK this is worrying, though I suspect inevitable. Cancer specialists are reporting a significant decrease in referrals for diagnosis of new patients. I should imagine this is the typical British ‘grin and bear it, shouldn’t bother the docs when they are busy’ response kicking in. Obviously there is no real decrease in the number of people needing a diagnosis, and we all know that early diagnosis is the best possible thing for cancer.

I wonder how many people are putting off going to the docs over something that is worrying them?

 

[rangercol]

I don't think its Twitter's fault on this occasion. It was The Mirror who composed the headline in the Tweet for it to be perceived in the way that it was. It was deliberately misleading. They should take more care, there are some frightened and vulnerable people out there who don't need to be scared ****less any more than they already are.

Sums up most of the media imo.
I've stopped watching a lot of the news programmes and reading articles, as they're just so ****ing doom laiden.
Most of the reporters are as much in the dark as me.

 

[Turkish" Premier" Hoops]

Sums up most of the media imo.
I've stopped watching a lot of the news programmes and reading articles, as they're just so ****ing doom laiden.
Most of the reporters are as much in the dark as me.

That’s true, we’re all in the dark to be honest, but in our defence at least we don’t have to make up stories to create headlines and to sell papers like the lying bastard journalists.

 

[QPR999]

Sums up most of the media imo.
I've stopped watching a lot of the news programmes and reading articles, as they're just so ****ing doom laiden.
Most of the reporters are as much in the dark as me.

Same here Col, I stopped watching about two weeks ago. Beth Rigby, Peston, Boulton and Carole Cadaver need locking up along with Piers Morgan.

 

[sb_73]

Sums up most of the media imo.
I've stopped watching a lot of the news programmes and reading articles, as they're just so ****ing doom laiden.
Most of the reporters are as much in the dark as me.

They just love getting their face on the telly though, don’t they? The same questions asked endlessly to try and catch out people who, though they might be making mistakes, are trying their hardest is just pathetic. Yeah challenge and hold to account but do it responsibly.

On another point, aside from a renewed commitment backed up with cash and staffing for the NHS coming out of this, I hope that we develop a list of health critical capability and capacity that we need to have within the country - PPE and testing would surely be near the top of the list.

 

[daverangers]

Macron speaking now...promising more masks and more help for those fighting the virus...and the confinement extended until Monday 11th May. May even make it stricter.

 

[QPR999]

Macron speaking now...promising more masks and more help for those fighting the virus...and the confinement extended until Monday 11th May. May even make it stricter.

I saw a video of Macron turning up at a hospital yesterday and getting a bollacking off of a load of nurses. I can't seem to find it now as I can't remember where I saw it.