Off Topic Coronavirus

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I always try to have a well stocked beer fridge
I'm drinking it faster than I can replace it
Luckily I have loads of it and I will get some more on the way home from work later
When We get back to normal I am definitely going to need to change parts of my lifestyle
Maybe
 
Flu season has just about finished and it’s been a pretty benign one this year, apparently. And fortunately.

The first death attributed to coronavirus in the UK was end February. Plenty of data on flu this season

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-national-flu-reports-2019-to-2020-season

Interesting stuff on the all cause mortality report link on the same page. Massive spike week of 9 April. We have been in ‘excess death’ over expected figures in England for the last 3 weeks, except for those aged under 15.

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There are so many “ah, but”s. I read the text that went to with this graph and thought it misleading. It talks about statistically significant increases in deaths of over-65s compared with the dotted red line, as well as the same in a number of regions. Whilst it also speaks of the delay in getting mortality data, the black line doesn’t appear significantly ‘spiky’ compared with earlier years in its journey. Is that a correct reading of the data presented?
 
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There are so many “ah, but”s. I read the text that went to with this graph and thought it misleading. It talks about statistically significant increases in deaths of over-65s compared with the dotted red line, as well as the same in a number of regions. Whilst it also speaks of the delay in getting mortality data, the black line doesn’t appear significantly ‘spiky’ compared with earlier years in its journey. Is that a correct reading of the data presented?
I don’t know, I’m not a statistician. It’s clearly not designed for laymen to understand, I don’t even get the scale on the x axis.
 
Ellers, I resolved a while back not to respond to your posts because your logic is generally so twisted that it's impossible to have a sensible argument with you. Twice now I've fallen off that particular wagon, and I regret it, but I'll do my best to stick to that resolution in future. However, you've obviously spent a lot of time over this post, so it deserves a response.

Anyone who makes reasonable criticisms of the government's handling of this crisis, you describe as indulging in 'political point-scoring', yet the political bias in your own posts is plain for all to see - indeed the post to which I am currently replying is dripping with it. Criticism of the government is legitimate and necessary, it is not just point-scoring and it is not unpatriotic. Of course, the government should also be praised when it get things right and I think that the Chancellor's response, whilst not without flaws, was a good one.

You've made some personal attacks on me in your post by dredging up some posts that I have made in the past, to which I should also respond.

Firstly, you accuse me of not being concerned about others' safety because I don't stick to what I consider to be daft isolation rules. As I've already explained, I'm careful to avoid getting too close to people when I'm out, but I think that the guidelines are over-restrictive and are interpreted too literally by many. What's wrong with going out more than once a day, or sitting on a park bench when you are out, or driving to visit parents, all whist maintaining the appropriate distance? I have never knowingly endangered anyone.

You've carefully cut part of my post about the doctor who had sent an open letter to Johnson criticising the lack of adequate PPE for NHS staff. This poor man died of the virus and I was outraged at the fuss being made about Johnson whilst dedicated people such as this doctor were dying. I don't wish Johnson harm, and my post was probably over the top, but I stick by the sentiment behind it.

I did indeed say in the early days that the reaction to the virus in comparison to a 'regular' flu epidemic was exaggerated and I still believe this to a point. I can see that it was necessary to avoid everyone getting the virus at once, thus bringing the NHS to a standstill, but I was attracted to the herd immunity approach (as were you, I thought). As Trump said, 'why make the solution worse than the problem?' There were 28,000 deaths in this country from the 2014-15 flu epidemic and 10,000 so far attributed to Covid-19, yet there were no extreme measures back then, or even a campaign to get us to wash our hands more often as far as I can recall. I don't believe that the lockdown will actually prevent a significant number of deaths, it will merely delay them. The numbers of deaths caused by the economic fallout, however, will be far greater in my opinion.

Yes, there will be an inquiry, but why shouldn't people speak out now if they feel that the government is getting it wrong?

Top post....
 
Ellers, I resolved a while back not to respond to your posts because your logic is generally so twisted that it's impossible to have a sensible argument with you. Twice now I've fallen off that particular wagon, and I regret it, but I'll do my best to stick to that resolution in future. However, you've obviously spent a lot of time over this post, so it deserves a response.

Anyone who makes reasonable criticisms of the government's handling of this crisis, you describe as indulging in 'political point-scoring', yet the political bias in your own posts is plain for all to see - indeed the post to which I am currently replying is dripping with it. Criticism of the government is legitimate and necessary, it is not just point-scoring and it is not unpatriotic. Of course, the government should also be praised when it get things right and I think that the Chancellor's response, whilst not without flaws, was a good one.

You've made some personal attacks on me in your post by dredging up some posts that I have made in the past, to which I should also respond.

Firstly, you accuse me of not being concerned about others' safety because I don't stick to what I consider to be daft isolation rules. As I've already explained, I'm careful to avoid getting too close to people when I'm out, but I think that the guidelines are over-restrictive and are interpreted too literally by many. What's wrong with going out more than once a day, or sitting on a park bench when you are out, or driving to visit parents, all whist maintaining the appropriate distance? I have never knowingly endangered anyone.

You've carefully cut part of my post about the doctor who had sent an open letter to Johnson criticising the lack of adequate PPE for NHS staff. This poor man died of the virus and I was outraged at the fuss being made about Johnson whilst dedicated people such as this doctor were dying. I don't wish Johnson harm, and my post was probably over the top, but I stick by the sentiment behind it.

I did indeed say in the early days that the reaction to the virus in comparison to a 'regular' flu epidemic was exaggerated and I still believe this to a point. I can see that it was necessary to avoid everyone getting the virus at once, thus bringing the NHS to a standstill, but I was attracted to the herd immunity approach (as were you, I thought). As Trump said, 'why make the solution worse than the problem?' There were 28,000 deaths in this country from the 2014-15 flu epidemic and 10,000 so far attributed to Covid-19, yet there were no extreme measures back then, or even a campaign to get us to wash our hands more often as far as I can recall. I don't believe that the lockdown will actually prevent a significant number of deaths, it will merely delay them. The numbers of deaths caused by the economic fallout, however, will be far greater in my opinion.

Yes, there will be an inquiry, but why shouldn't people speak out now if they feel that the government is getting it wrong?
Thank you for the reply. :emoticon-0148-yes:
Your herd comments are correct and I still believe that was the best way to go.
As quoted today there is no proof that the lockdown will attribute to more deaths than the virus, that is just speculation at this point. I am sure in future there will be some information regarding future deaths. Today 2 medical experts that have been on TV were asked the question about going out and both said you cannot guarantee you won’t catch it even with all the precautions. So I can’t agree with your comments about going out however I’m sure you will have a couple agreeing.
 
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Truly criminal.....they should start giving it out for free if it's going to waste <cheers>

Coronavirus: What's happening to the beer left in pubs?
By Justin ParkinsonBBC News
  • 7 hours ago

  • You must log in or register to see images
    Image copyrightREUTERS
Pubs, like other public venues, look set to stay shut for the foreseeable future. But what's going to happen to the contents of their cellars?

Fifty million pints - give or take.

That's the amount of beer expected to go unused in barrels if pubs remain closed into the summer because of coronavirus. Publicans are currently unable to sell their lagers, ales and ciders - save for takeaways and home deliveries.

"It's a very sad waste of all the work and talent that goes into producing great beer," says Tom Stainer, chief executive of the Campaign for Real Ale (Camra). "People won't get to drink it and all those resources have been used up for nothing."

Mr Stainer estimates the UK's 39,000 pubs have, on average, 15 barrels in their cellar at any given time. Most are kegs containing 11 gallons (88 pints) each - although many real ales come in nine-gallon (72-pint) casks. The best-before dates on pasteurised beer - including most lagers - are usually three to four months after delivery.

Those for real ales and other unpasteurised beer are usually set at six to nine weeks.

You must log in or register to see images
Image copyrightKERIS AND LEE
Image captionCan't do takeaways - Keris De Villiers and husband Lee
So most stock could go to waste if social distancing measures remain in place for several months.

Keris De Villiers, landlady of the Ram Inn, the Old Sergeant and the Pig and Whistle in Wandsworth, south-west London, says barrelled beer worth about £10,000 could go off in her cellars - while 1,000 litres (1,760 pints) more beer remains in vats at the SlyBeast microbrewery she and husband Lee have recently set up.

"We could do takeaways," she says, "but that would mean selling beer on the corner of a very small pavement. That wouldn't be socially responsible, with the need for people to keep their distance from one another. The whole situation is heart-breaking.

"Our brewer literally talks to his tanks when he's at work every day. People really care about the beer they're making. It's a craft and people are passionate about it."


Supermarket alcohol sales increased by more than a fifth last month as pubs - along with cafes and restaurants - closed on 20 March.

"People are missing these things in their lives," says Mr Stainer. "It's not the biggest issue that the country is dealing with, but aspects of life like going to the cinema or cafe, or going for a pint, are something we treasure."

Many breweries and distributors have offered to take back barrels at no charge once the lockdown is over, taking some of the financial pressure off landlords.

You must log in or register to see images
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image captionSome pubs are offering takeaways to prevent beer being wasted
Iain Crockett, director of Gloucestershire-based Severn Brewing, says draymen - people who deliver beer - face the "worst week of their lives" when the pub trade returns, having to lift full barrels - rather than empties - out of cellars. He wants there to be at least a couple of weeks' notice before pubs are allowed to reopen.

"All the little brewers are going to be completely shafted otherwise," Mr Crockett says. While the big brewers have large storage capacities, small operators will be starting more "from scratch", he adds.

Before that, though, there's the question of how to get rid of tens of millions of pints. Can we expect scenes like those following the introduction of Prohibition in the US a century ago, where bottles and barrels were smashed, their contents poured away?

Probably not. In the US, bar owners have been told not to tip out-of-date beer down storm drains, because it's illegal and environmentally damaging. Some UK publicans, have, however, already resorted to this.

You must log in or register to see images
Image copyrightREUTERS
The British Institute of Innkeeping is advising against such action, amid concern it could leave landlords further out of pocket. Under Treasury rules, when publicans get rid of large amounts of spoilt beer, duty doesn't need to be paid on it. Brewery representatives normally oversee this process, but because of social distancing they can't visit premises at the moment.

The government has temporarily allowed brewers to appoint publicans to oversee the dumping of beer. But they must keep a proper record of it, including perhaps filming a video as proof it's been destroyed, rather than put aside for profit.

One option that publicans and brewers who spoke to the BBC would love to try is converting out-of-date beer into hand sanitiser, by extracting the alcohol. Independent brewer Brewdog is already making hand sanitiser at its Aberdeenshire premises, while the government is giving manufacturers who want to do the same "priority" access to the methylated spirits - or "denatured alcohol" - they need.

Despite these difficult times, Mrs De Villiers says pub owners and tenants are doing "all we can" to survive and "assist the community".

"The breweries are helping us and they want us to survive," she adds. "Everyone's ready to help everyone else."

In an effort to limit the economic damage caused by coronavirus, the government has offered £330bn in loans, £20bn in other aid, a business rates holiday, and grants for retailers and pubs.

"Pubs are at the heart of our communities and an important part of local economies," says a spokesman for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy.

"We've asked them to temporarily close in order to help protect people and reduce the spread of the virus. But we are also delivering support to help businesses, including pubs, through the coronavirus pandemic."
 
Truly criminal.....they should start giving it out for free if it's going to waste <cheers>

Coronavirus: What's happening to the beer left in pubs?
By Justin ParkinsonBBC News
  • 7 hours ago

  • You must log in or register to see images
    Image copyrightREUTERS
Pubs, like other public venues, look set to stay shut for the foreseeable future. But what's going to happen to the contents of their cellars?

Fifty million pints - give or take.

That's the amount of beer expected to go unused in barrels if pubs remain closed into the summer because of coronavirus. Publicans are currently unable to sell their lagers, ales and ciders - save for takeaways and home deliveries.

"It's a very sad waste of all the work and talent that goes into producing great beer," says Tom Stainer, chief executive of the Campaign for Real Ale (Camra). "People won't get to drink it and all those resources have been used up for nothing."

Mr Stainer estimates the UK's 39,000 pubs have, on average, 15 barrels in their cellar at any given time. Most are kegs containing 11 gallons (88 pints) each - although many real ales come in nine-gallon (72-pint) casks. The best-before dates on pasteurised beer - including most lagers - are usually three to four months after delivery.

Those for real ales and other unpasteurised beer are usually set at six to nine weeks.

You must log in or register to see images
Image copyrightKERIS AND LEE
Image captionCan't do takeaways - Keris De Villiers and husband Lee
So most stock could go to waste if social distancing measures remain in place for several months.

Keris De Villiers, landlady of the Ram Inn, the Old Sergeant and the Pig and Whistle in Wandsworth, south-west London, says barrelled beer worth about £10,000 could go off in her cellars - while 1,000 litres (1,760 pints) more beer remains in vats at the SlyBeast microbrewery she and husband Lee have recently set up.

"We could do takeaways," she says, "but that would mean selling beer on the corner of a very small pavement. That wouldn't be socially responsible, with the need for people to keep their distance from one another. The whole situation is heart-breaking.

"Our brewer literally talks to his tanks when he's at work every day. People really care about the beer they're making. It's a craft and people are passionate about it."


Supermarket alcohol sales increased by more than a fifth last month as pubs - along with cafes and restaurants - closed on 20 March.

"People are missing these things in their lives," says Mr Stainer. "It's not the biggest issue that the country is dealing with, but aspects of life like going to the cinema or cafe, or going for a pint, are something we treasure."

Many breweries and distributors have offered to take back barrels at no charge once the lockdown is over, taking some of the financial pressure off landlords.

You must log in or register to see images
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image captionSome pubs are offering takeaways to prevent beer being wasted
Iain Crockett, director of Gloucestershire-based Severn Brewing, says draymen - people who deliver beer - face the "worst week of their lives" when the pub trade returns, having to lift full barrels - rather than empties - out of cellars. He wants there to be at least a couple of weeks' notice before pubs are allowed to reopen.

"All the little brewers are going to be completely shafted otherwise," Mr Crockett says. While the big brewers have large storage capacities, small operators will be starting more "from scratch", he adds.

Before that, though, there's the question of how to get rid of tens of millions of pints. Can we expect scenes like those following the introduction of Prohibition in the US a century ago, where bottles and barrels were smashed, their contents poured away?

Probably not. In the US, bar owners have been told not to tip out-of-date beer down storm drains, because it's illegal and environmentally damaging. Some UK publicans, have, however, already resorted to this.

You must log in or register to see images
Image copyrightREUTERS
The British Institute of Innkeeping is advising against such action, amid concern it could leave landlords further out of pocket. Under Treasury rules, when publicans get rid of large amounts of spoilt beer, duty doesn't need to be paid on it. Brewery representatives normally oversee this process, but because of social distancing they can't visit premises at the moment.

The government has temporarily allowed brewers to appoint publicans to oversee the dumping of beer. But they must keep a proper record of it, including perhaps filming a video as proof it's been destroyed, rather than put aside for profit.

One option that publicans and brewers who spoke to the BBC would love to try is converting out-of-date beer into hand sanitiser, by extracting the alcohol. Independent brewer Brewdog is already making hand sanitiser at its Aberdeenshire premises, while the government is giving manufacturers who want to do the same "priority" access to the methylated spirits - or "denatured alcohol" - they need.

Despite these difficult times, Mrs De Villiers says pub owners and tenants are doing "all we can" to survive and "assist the community".

"The breweries are helping us and they want us to survive," she adds. "Everyone's ready to help everyone else."

In an effort to limit the economic damage caused by coronavirus, the government has offered £330bn in loans, £20bn in other aid, a business rates holiday, and grants for retailers and pubs.

"Pubs are at the heart of our communities and an important part of local economies," says a spokesman for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy.

"We've asked them to temporarily close in order to help protect people and reduce the spread of the virus. But we are also delivering support to help businesses, including pubs, through the coronavirus pandemic."

We’ve had a load of crisps and snacks from local pubs......and a whole ton of Easter eggs :)
 
Good old mainstream media. This headline was in The Daily Mirror 2nd of April ...

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So, Professor Whitty admits that the most important mortality figure is "all cause mortality". I haven't heard him say this before, although I haven't listened to all these briefings. If that's his most important figure, then why the hell aren't we being given it every day (accepting that there's a delay in obtaining some data)?

I accept that COVID-19 is causing a spike in these figures compared with previous years and/or the average over the past 5 years... but how much of a spike, and is it of sufficient substance to crash the economy?

Yes, I know, Stan, the same question again and again and again...
 
So, Professor Whitty admits that the most important mortality figure is "all cause mortality". I haven't heard him say this before, although I haven't listened to all these briefings. If that's his most important figure, then why the hell aren't we being given it every day (accepting that there's a delay in obtaining some data)?

I accept that COVID-19 is causing a spike in these figures compared with previous years and/or the average over the past 5 years... but how much of a spike, and is it of sufficient substance to crash the economy?

Yes, I know, Stan, the same question again and again and again...
I thought he talked about all cause mortality as an indicator of how well the NHS is coping. If it isn’t coping people will be dying of lots of different things that normally they would be treated for and survive.

Bet they wish numbers of deaths had never been mentioned. What they are to trying to achieve is to avoid the catastrophe of the NHS collapsing, which will certainly lead to thousands of avoidable deaths.
 
Good old mainstream media. This headline was in The Daily Mirror 2nd of April ...

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If you read the article it says the total number of deaths could reach 50,000 overall, not that 50k we’re going to die yesterday. ****ing Twitter.
 
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