Off Topic Coronavirus

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Believe who you like Col, and act as you feel fit. I don’t think the virus is a serious threat to the vast majority of people (all of the Italian deaths, about 10, have been in people aged over 70 - except one in his 60s - with pre existing health conditions). The guy who discovered the Ebola virus was also on the radio yesterday, saying that the virus looks like it can be transferred very easily, but that it has a very low mortality rate, less than 1% worldwide. No denying that the absolute number of deaths will be high if a lot of people get the disease, but it’s not the Black Death or even flu. Children and healthy adults seem pretty likely only to get a mild version, meaning that those most at risk of severe or life threatening disease are exactly the same people at risk from flu.

What does worry me is the government, NHS capability, and media response. The government is issuing contradictory advice about travel - Matt Hancock says don’t go to Northern Italy, while his own department and the Foreign Office say don’t go to the towns in quarantine (who would?). Schools have closed in Middlesbrough because some pupils were on a skiing trip in the Italian Alps - the head claims he was following advice, the Department of Health say none was issued. The media, all formats, majoring on panic, lock downs, etc and loving it. What none of them are pointing out is that the NHS is performing worse than in decades, with treating people in corridors the norm (199,000 people in December and January treated in these conditions). Even a relatively small influx of patients with COVID 19 could cause the system to collapse, as sick people will infect people already sick with something else. Are we setting up isolation hospitals all over the place?

But to calm it back down, look up pandemics on the Internet. You will be surprised (I was) how many you have lived through without noticing.

It's also noticeable how many pandemics have started in China Stan - 20 years ago they would have stayed there, but this is the danger of what we call globalization - ie. epidemics also become global. There is no real secret as to why Northern Italy has been so badly affected - Milan has the largest China Town in Europe and there would be regular connections. If we want globalization then we have to be ready for events like this.
 
Undoubtedly it is, the government would never admit it as the panic that would ensue would make things far worse. I guess we'll get a far better idea of things over the next week or two as we see what develops in Italy and the rest of Europe. Doesn't look like my flu jab will be much use...
Your flu jab will be absolutely no use at all.
Different virus all together Col
 
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Your flu will be absolutely no use at all.
Different virus all together Col
Actually the authorities here are encouraging as many people to have flu jabs as possible Beth. The logic behind this is that if a person has flu and then gets the Coronavirus on top of it then their resistance levels are lower. The last thing we need at the moment is a rise in the number of people with flu like symptoms all thinking they have the Coronavirus - this could stretch emergency services to the limit. Of course you are right that a flu jab will not protect you against the virus itself - but what we do know is that if you get the virus then it helps to be in as good a physical health as possible at the time.
 
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Actually the authorities here are encouraging as many people to have flu jabs as possible Beth. The logic behind this is that if a person has flu and then gets the Coronavirus on top of it then their resistance levels are lower. The last thing we need at the moment is a rise in the number of people with flu like symptoms all thinking they have the Coronavirus - this could stretch emergency services to the limit. Of course you are right that a flu jab will not protect you against the virus itself - but what we do know is that if you get the virus then it helps to be in as good a physical health as possible at the time.
On that aspect you are right Cologne.
A method to prevent muddying the waters..

But something I really I do not understand ( Stan help me here), is ...

People do not seem to die of Coronavirus, but of a pneumonia that developed in the weakened patient....in older, younger or immunocompromised patients

There is a jab available for pneumonia ...so why not give people that. It won't stop them from getting Coronavirus, but would stop them getting the secondary more fatal pneumonia
 
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On that aspect you are right Cologne.
A method to prevent muddying the waters..

But something I really I do not understand ( Stan help me here), is ...

People do not seem to die of Coronavirus, but of a pneumonia that developed in the weakened patient....in older, younger or immunocompromised patients

There is a jab available for pneumonia ...so why not give people that. It won't stop them from getting Coronavirus, but would stop them getting the secondary more fatal pneumonia
Until Stroller’s post I was unaware that there is a vaccine for pneumonia. I had that - three weeks off work and as weak as a baby. I’m not sure there can be a single vaccine for all pneumonia, which is a catch all for severe respiratory infections. Coronavirus seems to turn into shortness of breath after initial symptoms of cough and temperature. Those with COPD, other heart/lung diseases, asthma etc and an underlying frailness would seem most vulnerable. If a pneumonia jab would help them, give it!

Been talking to colleagues in a variety of locations around the world. Definite air of panic and fear (not amongst my colleagues, more in general). Still not an official WHO pandemic, though I suspect that this is inevitable and we should be ready for high levels of infection just about everywhere, as the ‘lockdown’ approach can’t contain something as mild and infectious as this, only takes one person out of a hundred to break quarantine, or simply be unaware that they are infected (speculation that there must be symptomless carriers) to infect loads more.

I still think the reaction to this bug is more serious than the bug itself. Some really interesting potential social and economic consequences. Pension pots already eroded by the genius’ who trade stocks and shares.

This is a good tracker, I like the ‘recovered’ stat as well

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Perspective - most cases in China have been in Hubei province, which has Wuhan as its capital. Suppression of information about the virus in December and January and densely populated towns and cities would have encouraged rapid spread. So far 77,000 confirmed cases in China, and 2,000 deaths, mostly in Hubei. Let’s say these are massive underestimates, times by 5 to nearly 400,000 cases and 10,000 deaths in Hubei. The population of the province is 58 million. Less than 1% infected.
 
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There are definitely symptomless carriers, and people with very mild symptoms, which is why it has travelled so far.
People do not know they have it.

Notice the words ..cases are linked to people who have travelled to China/Italy ...not people who have the disease.
Most of the coronavirus positive patients in UK have now been released too
 
Believe who you like Col, and act as you feel fit. I don’t think the virus is a serious threat to the vast majority of people (all of the Italian deaths, about 10, have been in people aged over 70 - except one in his 60s - with pre existing health conditions). The guy who discovered the Ebola virus was also on the radio yesterday, saying that the virus looks like it can be transferred very easily, but that it has a very low mortality rate, less than 1% worldwide. No denying that the absolute number of deaths will be high if a lot of people get the disease, but it’s not the Black Death or even flu. Children and healthy adults seem pretty likely only to get a mild version, meaning that those most at risk of severe or life threatening disease are exactly the same people at risk from flu.

What does worry me is the government, NHS capability, and media response. The government is issuing contradictory advice about travel - Matt Hancock says don’t go to Northern Italy, while his own department and the Foreign Office say don’t go to the towns in quarantine (who would?). Schools have closed in Middlesbrough because some pupils were on a skiing trip in the Italian Alps - the head claims he was following advice, the Department of Health say none was issued. The media, all formats, majoring on panic, lock downs, etc and loving it. What none of them are pointing out is that the NHS is performing worse than in decades, with treating people in corridors the norm (199,000 people in December and January treated in these conditions). Even a relatively small influx of patients with COVID 19 could cause the system to collapse, as sick people will infect people already sick with something else. Are we setting up isolation hospitals all over the place?

But to calm it back down, look up pandemics on the Internet. You will be surprised (I was) how many you have lived through without noticing.


I don't think I've ever said that I'm unduly worried, only that I wonder whether we're being given all the facts.

In it's present form I don't believe this virus will be much of a killer at all.
 
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I don't think I've ever said that I'm unduly worried, only that I wonder whether we're being given all the facts.

In it's present form I don't believe this virus will be much of a killer at all.
As you can probably tell Col I’ve developed an unnatural interest in this thing, the reaction to it and the way it’s being handled is fascinating. So I might jump to unwarranted conclusions sometimes, apologies.
 
As you can probably tell Col I’ve developed an unnatural interest in this thing, the reaction to it and the way it’s being handled is fascinating. So I might jump to unwarranted conclusions sometimes, apologies.
I think the reaction to this is simply fear of the unknown Stan - better the devil you know, and all that. The thing which worries people is that it is new and unknown - and, in the absence of real facts, then fake news will fill the void. I am sure that I would be taking a far greater risk riding my bike through London without a helmet but it would be a calculated risk, which most people can cope with.
 
I think the reaction to this is simply fear of the unknown Stan - better the devil you know, and all that. The thing which worries people is that it is new and unknown - and, in the absence of real facts, then fake news will fill the void. I am sure that I would be taking a far greater risk riding my bike through London without a helmet but it would be a calculated risk, which most people can cope with.
You’d definitely be at much greater risk standing in K Block at Dynamo Dresden without wearing the home teams colours.

Just done a little experiment. Went into 3 chemists and asked if they had any surgical face masks. All sold out, no sign of new stock.

I should stress that I don’t think these thing are especially effective at stopping the spread of a virus. They might work for a few hours in a sterile environment like an operating theatre or a recently disinfected ward, but down the shops they won’t be sterile for more than a couple of minutes. I wanted a packet in case you become a social pariah at some time in the next few weeks if you are out and about and not wearing one, ie simply for forms sake. Let’s hope the government isn’t daft enough to advise that we all wear something that isn’t available, we’ll have riots.

What really pissed me off was the pharmacist in our (very big) branch of Boots, who also said that the masks don’t do much, said that she had told people to go to Screwfix and buy a dust mask. I asked her to stop doing that - the dust masks are to stop proper working people - like my son - from breathing in brick dust and plaster boards haze. If there is a shortage many of them are not in a position to down tools until supplies are resumed, they need the cash, and this dust can really **** up your lungs. They are not to give neurotic twats a false sense of security.
 
You’d definitely be at much greater risk standing in K Block at Dynamo Dresden without wearing the home teams colours.

Just done a little experiment. Went into 3 chemists and asked if they had any surgical face masks. All sold out, no sign of new stock.

I should stress that I don’t think these thing are especially effective at stopping the spread of a virus. They might work for a few hours in a sterile environment like an operating theatre or a recently disinfected ward, but down the shops they won’t be sterile for more than a couple of minutes. I wanted a packet in case you become a social pariah at some time in the next few weeks if you are out and about and not wearing one, ie simply for forms sake. Let’s hope the government isn’t daft enough to advise that we all wear something that isn’t available, we’ll have riots.

What really pissed me off was the pharmacist in our (very big) branch of Boots, who also said that the masks don’t do much, said that she had told people to go to Screwfix and buy a dust mask. I asked her to stop doing that - the dust masks are to stop proper working people - like my son - from breathing in brick dust and plaster boards haze. If there is a shortage many of them are not in a position to down tools until supplies are resumed, they need the cash, and this dust can really **** up your lungs. They are not to give neurotic twats a false sense of security.


Coming up to the match yesterday, I travel on the same train that connects to that tax haven for high end fashion stores, Bicester Village.

A lot of tourists from the middle and far east use it ( it is absolutely awful place imho). However most of the people on the train carrying Chanel, and Gucci bags were wearing masks.

The regular commuters and footy fans were not!

The paranoia has already started
 
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You’d definitely be at much greater risk standing in K Block at Dynamo Dresden without wearing the home teams colours.

Just done a little experiment. Went into 3 chemists and asked if they had any surgical face masks. All sold out, no sign of new stock.

I should stress that I don’t think these thing are especially effective at stopping the spread of a virus. They might work for a few hours in a sterile environment like an operating theatre or a recently disinfected ward, but down the shops they won’t be sterile for more than a couple of minutes. I wanted a packet in case you become a social pariah at some time in the next few weeks if you are out and about and not wearing one, ie simply for forms sake. Let’s hope the government isn’t daft enough to advise that we all wear something that isn’t available, we’ll have riots.

What really pissed me off was the pharmacist in our (very big) branch of Boots, who also said that the masks don’t do much, said that she had told people to go to Screwfix and buy a dust mask. I asked her to stop doing that - the dust masks are to stop proper working people - like my son - from breathing in brick dust and plaster boards haze. If there is a shortage many of them are not in a position to down tools until supplies are resumed, they need the cash, and this dust can really **** up your lungs. They are not to give neurotic twats a false sense of security.

Every expert I've heard has said that the masks are a complete waste of time.

The six nations game in Italy has been postponed due to the virus.
Can't remember anything like that happening before with other outbreaks, although I stand to be corrected.
 
Every expert I've heard has said that the masks are a complete waste of time.

The six nations game in Italy has been postponed due to the virus.
Can't remember anything like that happening before with other outbreaks, although I stand to be corrected.

The match was due to be in Dublin, not Italy. Presumably postponed because there would be some Italians there. Seems like a major over-reaction to me.
 
Every expert I've heard has said that the masks are a complete waste of time.

The six nations game in Italy has been postponed due to the virus.
Can't remember anything like that happening before with other outbreaks, although I stand to be corrected.
It was postponed before during the the foot and mouth epidemic. To prevent movement through areas of contamination. I believe the matches were played in the autumn.

Not sure that is possible with such a full program in the autumn now.
 
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Every expert I've heard has said that the masks are a complete waste of time.

The six nations game in Italy has been postponed due to the virus.
Can't remember anything like that happening before with other outbreaks, although I stand to be corrected.
From what I have heard gloves are far more effective than masks. Other than that the precautions are exactly the same as when the flu is going around ie. distance yourself from people who are coughing or sneezing (which we mostly do anyway), wash your hands regularly, and avoid pressing buttons such as doorknobs, liftbuttons or when going to a cash machine. The train has little viral monsters on everything you touch and so washing hands upon leaving all forms of public transport is a must. Also shaking hands is not recommended at the moment (stupid habit anyway ! - this is probably why the Asians mostly don't do it). All in all exactly the same precautions as if the flu was going the rounds.
 
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