Believe who you like Col, and act as you feel fit. I don’t think the virus is a serious threat to the vast majority of people (all of the Italian deaths, about 10, have been in people aged over 70 - except one in his 60s - with pre existing health conditions). The guy who discovered the Ebola virus was also on the radio yesterday, saying that the virus looks like it can be transferred very easily, but that it has a very low mortality rate, less than 1% worldwide. No denying that the absolute number of deaths will be high if a lot of people get the disease, but it’s not the Black Death or even flu. Children and healthy adults seem pretty likely only to get a mild version, meaning that those most at risk of severe or life threatening disease are exactly the same people at risk from flu.
What does worry me is the government, NHS capability, and media response. The government is issuing contradictory advice about travel - Matt Hancock says don’t go to Northern Italy, while his own department and the Foreign Office say don’t go to the towns in quarantine (who would?). Schools have closed in Middlesbrough because some pupils were on a skiing trip in the Italian Alps - the head claims he was following advice, the Department of Health say none was issued. The media, all formats, majoring on panic, lock downs, etc and loving it. What none of them are pointing out is that the NHS is performing worse than in decades, with treating people in corridors the norm (199,000 people in December and January treated in these conditions). Even a relatively small influx of patients with COVID 19 could cause the system to collapse, as sick people will infect people already sick with something else. Are we setting up isolation hospitals all over the place?
But to calm it back down, look up pandemics on the Internet. You will be surprised (I was) how many you have lived through without noticing.
It's also noticeable how many pandemics have started in China Stan - 20 years ago they would have stayed there, but this is the danger of what we call globalization - ie. epidemics also become global. There is no real secret as to why Northern Italy has been so badly affected - Milan has the largest China Town in Europe and there would be regular connections. If we want globalization then we have to be ready for events like this.
