Very interesting interview with the Italian PM on the BBC last night. I do like him as a politician and what I really like is the very straight answers he gives, even revealing his personal thoughts and you can feel his pain. What I really liked was his response to the insinuation that there were some kind of strings attached to the medical help that Russia has given to Italy - he roasted the journo and stated that he was deeply offended by such an accusation, good to see a politician with some emotion. What is becoming interesting is the discussions regarding the " next phases" - I don't like the term exit strategy as there is not one until a vaccine is widely available. But what can and should be done between some point were a country has their epidemic under control and when a vaccine is available. If I had a crystal ball, this is what I think could happen - the really vulnerable will have to be locked down hard, with bolted down plans to support them in whatever setting they are in. - schools will reopen first. There is a real concern about children's health not being at school and also vulnerable children that are no longer visible. - some industries will reopen. But with the focus to work from home if possible. - places of mass congregation I.e. Pubs, restaraunts, cinemas, football, churches etc. Will remain closed . With medical and social capacity and capability secured and in place, the brakes come off a little. But you have to accept there will still be people catching it and some not surviving. But I do not believe staying in lockdown until there is a vaccine is an option.
I have now seen the numbers from Sweden and you're right, it is ramping up very fast. It's tragic that their "experiment" has effectively failed. The dawn was certainly false and its heart breaking that so many will suffer.
I think for the old and vulnerable staying in some form of isolation may be the only way forward for the foreseeable.. Until the vaccine appears or the world has limited the virus capacity to spread. I don't really understand virology but all the scientists say that all viruses follow a bell curve and eventually morph into something less toxic. I would be interested if anyone can explain this to me. Spanish Flu for example killed millions and then faded away.. Here's hoping...
I really do wish that politicians would be straight with people, rather than trying to manage the bad news. How many NHS staff have died? We cannot say for reasons of confidentiality. I don't accept that. The question was about numbers not names. Attempts to suggest that equipment will be available in the next couple of days, when on closer questioning it is drawn out that it will actually be a couple of weeks if all goes well. Just who are the really vulnerable? Figures in France are more detailed than the ones given out in the UK. From those you can see that 30% or so in intensive care are under the age of 50. Certainly from what evidence is coming to light here the stricter the lockdown the better the result. We are seeing a very slow, but encouraging reduction in the deaths, admissions to hospital and intensive care beds, but the suggestions are that it should be well in to the autumn or even next year before many of the restrictions are lifted.
lots of interesting information regarding the flu virus , which is a relative of this latest one , took over 20 years to develop a vaccine for that .......not saying it will be that long again , but many complex issues are obviously involved . in the second wave during 1918-1919 , it was the healthy who were killed disproportionately, cykotine storm effect most common, where a over reaction occurs and immune system destroys itself , this is what seems to be happening with this as well ......lots to learn .......it’s only been around a few months ....
It is going to be a very long time before we get back to 'normal' w_y. If 'normal' means that I can get onto a crowded train and go to a football match with 60,000 others and then go to the pub afterwards as in days of old (how recently were we doing these things ). The problem is that if you leave such a lockdown in place until all danger has disappeared then all the pub, cafe, and restaurant owners will have gone bankrupt and there will be none left to reopen when this is over. I think that some European countries are now past the worst and will be tempted to lift restrictions, though it would be tragic to do this too soon. One of the benefits of intensive testing is that it allows more studies to be done - we are getting to know this virus better every day - but the one thing which is missing is to be able to trace exactly when and where a cross infection took place. If we were able to do this then we would know that some social settings are more dangerous than others. My suspicion is that the vast majority of infections took place within 4 walls - if that is the case then getting people out of their homes and into the open air may be beneficial - so is it necessary, or beneficial, to close public parks or beaches. If, through closing schools, kids are spending more time in company with their grandparents then it may be more dangerous.
Well basically the virus doesn't want to kill you - that would be bad for business because the reproduction rate would be stopped by your death. So, the milder variants have more chance of spreading - so called survival of the fittest, and the fittest virus, in this case, is one which allows its victims to walk around infecting others. This is how they mutate into milder strains. Somehow all of the scientists are saying different things - in fact all of the mistakes made by our politicians have been based on the recomendations of so called experts, so maybe we need fewer experts and more common sense. It was, after all, an expert who convinced Bojo of the benefits of developing herd immunity - ie. the best way of tackling this was to let 60% of your population get it as quickly as possible Viruses do fade away at times, sometimes for unknown reasons. It is also possible to kill a virus by lowering the reproduction rate to a situation where the average infected person infects less than one other ie. a ratio of less than 1:1. Social distancing can lead to this situation wothout the necessity of going through a so called bell curve - basically you want as many seeds falling on barren ground as possible.
I agree that there is no point in banishing the voles out of my garden if they all go next door - because, one day, they will soon be back ! (unfortunately I have lots of experience of this ). So it's better to coordinate my approach with that of my neighbour. China has had many epidemics in the past which remained localized - and if we had not been so wedded to a globalization which none of us voted for this one would have remained localized as well.
I really cannot believe what I have been reading about UK cars turning up in Spain for a holiday break. The main autoroutes are patrolled for anyone on non-essential journeys, so these people have been taking to the minor roads and crossing into Spain. It is quite possible to do as I have found out when I was travelling down in the southwest and suddenly found I couldn't read some of the place names. So how are they getting into France? The ferries will not bring you across the Channel unless you can prove it is for vital almost life saving reasons. So attention turns to the Channel Tunnel. Lorry drivers are reporting that the checks by UK Border Control staff are fairly minimal due to lack of numbers. Last time I used the tunnel you were only checked at one end on the assumption that that should be enough. Perhaps that policy needs looking at. The police on both sides of the French/Spanish border have now realised what is happening and have set up check points on the small passes that can lead you from one country into the next. 14 days in an isolation establishment might be quite a wake up for some of these idiots. A local mayor on the Île de Ré set up checks on the bridge linking the island to the mainland to find anyone going to their holiday home, and if caught he sticks you away for 14 days for a rather different holiday to the one you expected.
Seems that Italy and Spain are relaxing some of their measures today, some shops and businesses will be able to re-open. The spread of the virus that shows an exponential growth requires more contacts than within 4 walls. It's when 1 person infects multiple people that this growth occurs. This exponential growth is seen in the cities and towns where close contact is huge. Little Miss W_Y had some symptoms before the lock down started after a evening out with work colleagues in London - she would have been in close contact with hundreds of people that day. She self-isolated for 14 days and has worked from home since - her company couriered a new lap-top to her to enable her to work effectively. School closures is an interesting debate. From the start, the view of closing schools was that the additional risks of closing schools could outweigh the risks of not closing schools and the "experts" seem to be divided. Mrs W_Y is working at her school 2 days per week, but the numbers of children attending is very small. Even many identified as being the children of key workers or have special needs or are vulnerable are being held back.
I’ve read the Labour mayor’s and the RMT dep leader’s comments. Clearly neither are very bright and I abhor their comments. Disappointed that the Daily Mail have Corbyn guilty by association by putting into the story a selfie that RMT pillock had with Corbyn. There’s no way on earth that Corbyn would have thought the same and that is cheap of the DM. Expected though. Glad the Labour Party removed the whip, but the Labour Party now will be like the Tories and play the political game of doing whatever is most politically favourable, not what is necessarily ‘right’. Johnson having the virus is not logically something people can associate with the deaths from Austerity, imho. I hope he makes a full recovery, and separately from that, I hold him, Cameron, Osborne, et al, responsible for those deaths. The acceptance of the social impact of Austerity was a national disgrace. Those responsible only gave a fig about the economic impact, but they never reference the trillion pounds it added to National Debt (about £80 000 per household). As for mayor and RMT idiot, it would be naive of me to think the idiots are only on one side of the debate. Also, thank you for drawing my attention to it. That’s what a balanced debate is about, and I’m so glad you are back. SH would only preach ‘party line’ to antagonise, like a ‘debate’ with someone like Raab would be. No one moves their learning of a situation forward.
I know a bit about 111 having two of my ex students work there...... A terrible set up..... they both needed weeks of training and virtually half the people appointed left soon after....... They all work in a big call centre..... Trouble is you need medically aware staff and most medically trained people would not want to do call centre work.... They have targets and all that goes with that...... sadly another attempt at medical support on the cheap.... I really pity people working there now.....
A sticking plaster approach from a government without a clue - the same government that managed this - please log in to view this image
Another press conference where the people there refused to answer the questions asked. Still we did learn that the restrictions in the UK are unlikely to be lifted in the near future, and an admission that maybe they might have got it wrong about people wearing mask when they do go out. Twice Raab was given the chance to put right what Patel had said, and he just couldn't bring himself to do it. Still in France there is disquiet about the messages coming from government, with just under 50% of people feeling they are getting sufficient information. Some other things that over here that are important to people. Agriculture should enable the country to be self-sufficient, 93%, medicines should be researched and made in France rather than rely on sourcing them from around the world, 92% and far more given to green policies, 87%. People want to see the EU strengthened so that it can have a monetary policy in place before another crisis, 76% and 61% of the population do not expect the world economy to function as it did before. When you see the number of prime time TV shows given over quiet normally to discuss issues of a political nature, then it not surprising that people do have informed opinions on what are sometimes complex issues.
Seeing as the UK is probably a week or two behind France in bringing in the restrictions, it maybe is a gauge as to where the UK is going. Tonight Macron has been on TV giving an address, where he stated that the current restrictions will stay in place until the 11th May, with just a partial lifting then to allow schools to gradually go back. He also said that most restrictions on larger gatherings will be in place until the middle of July. He also admitted that the country was not fully prepared for it, with insufficient stocks of vital equipment. Quite a difference in tone to what I hear from Downing Street.
I think it is easy to criticise people who are trying to make an incredibly difficult call. They may be experts but nothng like this has ever been seen so they are making educated guesses at best that are costing lives. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.
Therese Coffrey when pressed repeatedly on Breakfast News this morning did actually go some way to acknowledge... Regardless of one's views the Government has looked stupid day after day dancing round these questions... Surely better to own up and move on... There were very few western countries prepared...
Exactly. It also does not help when people pick and choose the expert that aligns to their opinion. They criticise for not following the guidance of the WHO on one topic, but completely ignore their advice of a different topic. So the WHO advice on the wearing of face masks is that there is no scientific evidence that shows this is anyway effective and there is a concern that it might be more risky in the general population. The CSO states that the UK continues to look at the global scientific evidence and react accordingly. Anyone who has travelled in the Far East will know that the wearing of face masks is prevalent in many Asian countries, but it does not seen to have had much effect for COVID.
