Someone asked yesterday whether Enable has the pace for the 10F Eclipse. Backers at the likely short odds will be taking somewhat of a risk on that front because it just isn't the distance she has been campaigned for most of her career. This will be more of a speed test than she has had for some time. Frankie says she is as fit as can be expected for her reappearance and just showing up was a question when she opened at 7/2 in the ante-post betting. Some of the potential dangers have fallen by the wayside. Crystal Ocean was backed just before he was pulled out of it and Sea Of Class left her chance in the mud at Royal Ascot in the Prince Of Wales and misses out now. In the end only seven are taking her on and she will be very short because of both her superiority on Ratings and achievements, allied to the lack of solidity in the challengers in terms of meeting the requirements needed to win an Eclipse. On official ratings Enable is top of the tree and the challengers line up behind her as follows:- Enable 125 Magical 123 Mustashry 121 Zabeel Prince 117 Regal Reality 116 Telecaster 115 Hunting Horn 114 Danceteria 110 Those are the bare ratings but taking into account weight for age etc there will be weight concessions and we need to add the weight conceded to the rating of the horse getting weight in order to get the correct terms on the day. Based on the altered figures the ratings will actually pan out as follows when allowing for weight carried:- Enable 128 Magical 126 Telecaster 125 Mustashry 121 Zabeel Prince 117 Regal Reality 116 Hunting Horn 114 Danceteria 110 Telecaster is the biggest beneficiary with a ten pound concession from the older colts because he is the only 2YO in the race. Enable and Magical get the 3 lbs sex allowance. On Ratings I am eliminating Hunting Horn and Danceteria right away. Hunting horn will be the pacemaker for Magical and Danceteria is out of his depth here, well held by Regal Reality on Brigadier Gerard form and won a weak French Group 3 last time. After the ratings the trip becomes a factor to consider. Enable only tried the distance once and was third before stepping up in trip and going unbeaten. I have always felt she is strongest at the end of her races and there are faster horses here than she usually meets, even if they are probably not real top notchers. It would not be so much of a concern at bigger odds but at a shade of odds-on and running for the first time in a while it has to be a question. Magical is a horse I liked after her Debutante Stakes win at 2YO but she went off the boil after that. She has no concerns about the trip but I just feel she has been winning weak races at short prices. Each of her last three wins has been from the same horse, Flag Of Honour, and only one winner has come in 25 runs from those who finished behind her in those three races. I have my doubts if Magical is really only 2 lbs behind Enable in the ratings. Regal Reality is interesting as a "New Kid On The Block" he is a course and distance winner who hammered recent winner Matterhorn in the Brigadier Gerard. That was his first try at beyond a mile and he is lightly raced. Plenty to find with Mustashry from last season's Joel Stakes but at 4YO now and two solid races under his belt this season it might be folly to write of the occasionally fractious Regal Reality with the possibility of more to come at the trip for his patient trainer. Stoute also saddles Mustashry here and he's no mug but he had looked a shade short of Group 1 class until winning, ultimately decisively, the Lockinge Stakes. I fancied him that day as a bit of value but I did have slight reservations as to whether he really had improved by the amount the official handicapper raised him for that win. In the Queen Anne I backed him again but without as much confidence. In the end he ran a flat race, well below his Lockinge effort. Mustashry has won at 10F but that was from Spark Plug in a Listed race and it is surely not coincidence that he has not tried the trip again until now. Zabeel Prince is tied in close with Mustashry and they have clashed before on more than one occasion. Zabeel Prince was pretty impressive in landing the Earl Of Sefton and the race worked out really well. He was getting 5 lbs from Mustashry though and the Stoute horse looked in need of the race that day. I backed Zabeel Prince for the Prix D'Ispahan next time but was not convinced that he won in like a horse who would definitely want stepping up an extra furlong next time. I was against him for the Prince Of Wales because of that and when the rain came I felt he was on a fools errand. He ran like a drain there and I feel Varian may be bloody minded in trying to prove him at the trip, rather than take the option of dropping back to a mile where the strength in depth looks weaker. This leaves us with Telecaster and his weight concession to ponder. On the figures he's thereabouts but he was an almighty flop in the Derby. Hughie Morrison regretted running the horse in the Derby, having said he should have stuck with his thinking that it was too much, too soon for his colt. The original plan was to wait until August and go for a Group 2 race in France as a comeback run. Is the trainer making another mistake in aiming high earlier than planned now? Much hinges on the Dante form and I saw some claim that the Dante form has been franked by Japan running 3rd in the Derby and then landing the Edward VII at Ascot. The Royal Ascot race was one where Japan had 10 lbs in hand on all ratings and the Derby was a bunch finish that has already failed to hold up. Too Darn Hot was cited as a form boost for the Dante after his runs in the Irish Guineas and St James Palace but that seems to fail to take into account that Too Darn Hot was dropped 6 lbs for the first run and a further 5 lbs for the second run. I am not convinced that a horse who ran in the Dante rated 126 and who is now rated 115 has been franking anything. Conclusion:- Enable is the class act with the big prizes in the bag. Aged 5 now and absent for a while she will need to be sharper and she has looked a horse who does her business in the final 2F of 12F races. Not for me at the short odds. Magical just looks to me as if she has cashed in on winning weak races and I can't quite take her as the option. I have gone with Regal Reality, who is unexposed, particularly at the trip. I remember Mtoto winning the Brigadier Gerard and coming on to complete the double and although he's unlikely to be as good as the Alec Stewart horse he still put up a decent show last time and has no concerns on trip/track. Backable each way with the bare eight runners and three places but it's only really a money back job for a place, so I will go on the "Hooter" Coral Eclipse Regal Reality 13/2 to hopefully upset Enable Probably sensible to back Enable for the Arc though. 7/2 could look very big by Saturday night and it looks a weak affair this year. She could lose and still shorten for Paris.
Good report Grendel but I don't like your word "hopefully" as not in a million years would I hope she gets beaten. I don't understand why she is dropping down to 10f. Don't understand that at all. I hope they know what they are doing. Hopefully she will set sail half a mile out and win easily. Couldn't back her but wouldn't back against her. I won't wish you luck with your bet because I will be quite upset if she gets beaten
It's all about value though Ron. In the circumstances I don't see Enable as a good bet at Odds-On. Maybe she will have the class but there are enough questions to leave her at the price. I do have favourite horses but when having a bet, the horse on the ticket is my favourite horse for the duration of the race. As I say, she could lose and still enhance her Arc claims. She is prominent in the King George/Queen Elizabeth betting but I am not sure that would be a good outing for Enable, win or lose, because it is only 21 days after the Eclipse and surely the Arc is the main priority. Too many runs before the big French race might be as sure a way to make sure she leaves the potential hat-trick at another racecourse in the summer months. If there is a time to take her on this season you would feel it is at the shorter trip. A win would see her skinny for the Arc I reckon. I've pi55ed away £6 on the Arc already this year so felt a £20 bet at 7/2 was worth having on Enable and if she flops and misses Paris, I'll just watch on without a bet on the day.
I knew that I probably would not be having a bet in the Eclipse because Enable was odds-on and she is the best horse in the race. However, knowing that ten furlongs is not her trip, that she has not had a race yet this season, that no filly/mare has won the race this century (not many have tried); and that she is a lazy worker at home, I thought I would look at the race anyway. Funnily enough I then come on and find that Grendel has started a race thread and reached most of the same conclusions that I made! Could Padraig Beggy win the big race on the pacemaker for the second week running? I think not. Hunting Horn is a half decent horse but there is no way he is going to be given a soft six length lead here. I am seriously underwhelmed by the classic generation and it is far too easy to pick holes in Telecaster’s form. I have to question whether we will see Too Darn Hot again as his form this season is that of a horse that has not trained on. Magical is the obvious selection, not out of the first two in six races but she beat three and four rivals in two of them, was beaten by Enable in the Breeders’ Cup and by Crystal Ocean (previously beaten by Enable) last time. The trip is right but the ground may not be her favourite and the bad record of the fairer sex applies to her as much as Gosden’s star. So ultimately the race comes down to the two Stoute runners. In any other year Mustashry would not be a Group 1 winner. I have no idea how the assessor has managed to rate his Lockinge win so highly; and whilst he had to give Zabeel Prince 5lb in the Earl Of Sefton (and went down by nearly four lengths), the first four from that race have been winning races because there are no top draw horses to beat. This just led, therefore, to the same conclusion as Grendel. The Brigadier Gerard winner Regal Reality is an improving, lightly-raced type that Sir Michael is famous for getting the best out of as they mature. If I have winnings to play with by 3:35, I might have a small interest but I really want Enable to win – and, whatever result today, go to Ascot for the King George!
Making her seasonal debut in the Eclipse is a tough start for Enable. I have no problem with the distance, I have a slight concern with the going even if she has won on it (she's good on easier going) but I think this is a much tougher start for her than last year. One will come out of this field to challenge her and I hope it's Telecaster.
Over 10f on fastish ground this is far from ideal for Enable so this won't be the walk in the park she had on her comeback last year. I suspect Magical will be too fit for her today but I really hope Enable wins
well,this looks a fantastic race in the offing,and i am a big admirer of enable,but she has to be surely at her peak against some of these today,and,in my view,TELECASTER is flying a bit under the radar here.yes,he was disappointing in the derby,but you shouldnt judge a horse on one specific race,so theres every chance,we ll see a different horse today.so,if all is well,e w value..
Forget that. Having looked at the form I agree this is the race for Regal Reality. Has produced easily the fastest times on fast ground, over 10f and 8f so has the speed to do this. Shall I pick all the others to ensure Enable wins
Perfect. With her conformation and temperament she should make a cracking brood mare. Sometimes the best fillies/mares don't make good brood mares. There is a theory that they have too much testosterone. But there can't be too many foals from top fillies/mares so it is difficult to draw any conclusions. Urban Sea and Kind are two examples producing top quality foals that spring to mind (although Kind wasn't really top level). What are the chances of Enable passing on here brilliance? One for Princess and Bustino to comment on?
I know who you are thinking but I do not think that Abdullah will do it... I eagerly await being corrected by the experts on this but there is too much Sadlers Wells in Enable’s pedigree and I think that Kingman would be a much better cross because that son of Zenda has no Sadlers Wells in his family and keeps the Dancing Brave/Lyphard line going.
I read that Regal Reality lost a shoe during today's race. O'Brien suggested that Magical will miss the King George and come back in the Autumn.
I think the idea of going to a Green Desert line sire is a good one, so Oasis Dream, Invincible Spirit or Kingman would be possibilities. Why not OD as he won’t be around much longer. But other than Sadler’s Wells line stallions the path his fairly clear so Dubawi or and possibly a Danehill line Sire?
