Hello, Lets play handicapper for a moment (as tomorrow we get the official weights for the Grand National) and I ask you what would you do with the following horses Tidal Bay 168 Long Run 163 Hunt Ball 162 Triolo D'Alene 158 Rocky Creek 157 Katenko 156 Burton Port 145 Court By Surprise 134 If you stuck by the handicap it would go Tidal Bay 11 10 Long Run 11 5 Hunt Ball 11 4 Triolo D'Alene 11 Rocky Creek 10 13 Katenko 10 12 Burton Port 10 1 Court By Surprise 9 4 I think he will compress it to TB 11 10 LR 11 7 HB 11 6 TDA 11 3 RC 11 2 K 11 1 BP 10 5 CBS 9 8 As such you would say those at the top of the weights would have a very fair chance on the marks, especially Long Run and Tidal Bay.
Except that Long Run will clout one fence after another and either pull up or fall. The only one on your list I would give a squeak to is Trio D'Alene. Not bad guesstimating on the weights though
The weight in normal terms is difference between top weight and horse, and same from 11st 10 to carried weight So MK - 139 TB - 168 Difference 29lbs - 29lbs off 164 (11st 10) = 135 or 9st 9lb
I wouldn't do anything..why would anyone?..the existing marks are what the contenders should race off. The first year Smith tried this ridiculous system only four horses were in contention form Valentines second time around..complete farce but then this is the clown who gave Master Minded a 186 rating when he and his team rated their first Grade 1 event. Giving the best horses a lenient mark is inequitable and doesn't work.These beasts generally have other targets during the calendar and only enter this as an after thought when they are over the top or too old.They don't run over hurdles thrice before entering the fray like the modern day specialists. In any case the race is a shadow of it's former self and has lost ALL of it's lustre. I would dig out the brooks again,heighten and restiffen the fences and increase the field size...this used to be the greatest race in the world and a supreme test for riders and racehorses, (clue is the name) not a namby pamby event for animal welfare do gooders. Nothing more to add...for now...
Why stop there Dex? Add rows of barbed wire across the fences, fill in the water jumps and plant land mines, drift mustard gas across the Melling Road, and put a sniper in the stands! Then make Warhorse favourite
As my regular readers are aware I’ve been on Long Run at 33’s for a while now and so am awaiting the unveiling of the old weights with keen, and I do mean keen, interest. I’d love the old boy to be given as low a perch as possible but being realistic I’d imagine he’ll get hit with something in the region of 11-5 to 11-7 below Tidal Bay who will top ‘em on 11-10. I do though envisage after this pair the weights being compressed and that is where the brilliant mind of Mr Henderson comes to the fore as he has got his perch down and also got a lot of no more than ‘above average’ horses to be imposted around his great Champion. The question must be what will the 3rd highest weighted carry and I think it will be in the region of 11-4 or 11-5 with many, and I do mean many, more following closing in behind that one. The amazing thing is I really do believe that Long Run (who cannily may run on Thursday once the weights are written in stone) will be giving no more than 9 pounds or so to some very ordinary horses here! Nass, on the above figures surely Katenko will be lowered from that 156 after his dismal performance on Saturday. If his GN weight is similarly adjusted he’d be a leading candidate for the Shrewd with a capital ‘S’ Venetia. You could say he’s the one I fear the most. Love this day though as you can guarantee after the weights are unveiled ever forum member will be looking at one horse or another and exclaiming, ‘Golly gosh, cor blimey, I say, how well handicapped is that old boy!’
Weights out: 1) 121-1532 TIDAL BAY (IRE) 13-11-10 Andrea & Graham Wylie Paul Nicholls 2) 132-54U LONG RUN (FR) 9-11-09 Robert Waley-Cohen Nicky Henderson 3) 13-6060 HUNT BALL (IRE) 9-11-07 Atlantic Equine Nicky Henderson 4) 1-F21P20 ROI DU MEE (FR) 9-11-06 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE 5) 301-131 TRIOLO D'ALENE (FR) 7-11-06 Sandy & Caroline Orr Nicky Henderson 6) 1113-22 ROCKY CREEK (IRE) 8-11-05 The Johnson & Stewart Families Paul Nicholls 7) 211-F443 KATENKO (FR) 8-11-04 Andrew Brooks Venetia Williams 8) 11FF-16 BOSTON BOB (IRE) 9-11-03 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE 9) 5-10661 ON HIS OWN (IRE) 10-11-03 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE 10) 3/F1115- BOG WARRIOR (IRE) 10-11-02 Gigginstown House Stud Tony Martin IRE 11) 13/230-6 SEABASS (IRE) 11-11-02 Gunners Syndicate Ted Walsh IRE 12) P0P-553 KAUTO STONE (FR) 8-11-01 Robin Geffen Paul Nicholls 13) 2U11-11 MOSSEY JOE (IRE) 11-11-01 Barry Connell Enda Bolger IRE 14) 145-F405 QUITO DE LA ROQUE (FR) 10-11-01 Gigginstown House Stud Colm Murphy IRE 15) 110-012 CANTLOW (IRE) 9-11-00 J P McManus Paul Webber 16) 1U-03U0 COLBERT STATION (IRE) 10-11-00 J P McManus Ted Walsh IRE 17) 30-3626 RUBI LIGHT (FR) 9-11-00 Bill Hennessy Robbie Hennessy IRE 18) 1112212 TONER D'OUDAIRIES (FR) 7-11-00 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE 19) 22P52-U4 WALKON (FR) 9-11-00 McNeill Family Alan King 20) 20P-111 BALTHAZAR KING (IRE) 10-10-13 The Brushmakers Philip Hobbs 21) P-21221U CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE) 8-10-13 J P McManus John Kiely IRE 22) P06-52P WAYWARD PRINCE 10-10-13 John & Mrs Hilary Parrott Hilary Parrott 23) 155-P03 CAPE TRIBULATION 10-10-12 David Abell Malcolm Jefferson 24) -450311 MR MOONSHINE (IRE) 10-10-12 Douglas Pryde, Jim Beaumont & David van der Hoeven Sue Smith 25) 06203-0 TEAFORTHREE (IRE) 10-10-12 Conyers, O'Reilly, Roddis, Zeffman Rebecca Curtis 26) 010-501 ACROSS THE BAY (IRE) 10-10-11 Scotch Piper Syndicate Donald McCain 27) F11111 DOUBLE SEVEN (IRE) 8-10-11 J P McManus Martin Brassil IRE 28) 2131-5P GODSMEJUDGE (IRE) 8-10-11 Favourites Racing Alan King 29) 0/530P-1 PLANET OF SOUND 12-10-11 Charles Lloyd-Baker Philip Hobbs 30) 11-1PRP BATTLE GROUP 9-10-10 Jolly Boys Outing Johnny Farrelly 31) 65-0510 BUCKERS BRIDGE (IRE) 8-10-10 Ann & Alan Potts Partnership Henry de Bromhead IRE 32) 11/PP-501 LION NA BEARNAI (IRE) 12-10-10 The Lock Syndicate Tom Gibney IRE 33) 12-3004 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 11-10-10 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE 34) 5/3/1/P1/ MASSINI'S MAGUIRE (IRE) 13-10-09 Alan Peterson Tim Vaughan 35) 13P-341 MONBEG DUDE (IRE) 9-10-09 Oydunow Michael Scudamore 36) 00PU-20 QUANTITATIVEEASING (IRE) 9-10-09 J P McManus Enda Bolger IRE 37) 2/5PU-01 SUNNYHILLBOY (IRE) 11-10-09 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill 38) 1/F0211-2 BIG SHU (IRE) 9-10-08 H Duffy/R J Robinson/Miss C M Woods Peter Maher IRE 39) 42/-500P BURTON PORT (IRE) 10-10-08 Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O'Neill 40) P-25P434 JUNIOR 11-10-08 Middleham Park Racing LI David Pipe 41) 0P/124-0 OUR FATHER (IRE) 8-10-08 The Ives & Johnson Families David Pipe 42) 203-061 SIRE COLLONGES (FR) 8-10-08 Angela & Bill Tincknell Paul Nicholls 43) 12/034/-P MON PARRAIN (FR) 8-10-07 John & Barbara Cotton Paul Nicholls 44) 241-3315 MOUNTAINOUS (IRE) 9-10-07 Walters Plant Hire & James & Jean Potter Richard Lee 45) 4UP-261 THE RAINBOW HUNTER 10-10-07 May We Never Be Found Out Partnership Kim Bailey 46) 2P-1262 VINTAGE STAR (IRE) 8-10-07 Trevor Hemmings Sue Smith 47) 0400-1P CHANCE DU ROY (FR) 10-10-06 Miss I D Du Pre Philip Hobbs 48) 212P-42 HAWKES POINT 9-10-06 Graham Roach Paul Nicholls 49) P513-35 HOME FARM (IRE) 7-10-06 Chris Jones Arthur Moore IRE 50) 2-44110 KRUZHLININ (GER) 7-10-06 Paul & Clare Rooney Donald McCain 51) 35F201 PINEAU DE RE (FR) 11-10-06 J A Provan Dr Richard Newland 52) 3-20116 WHITE STAR LINE (IRE) 10-10-06 Exors of the late Patsy Byrne Dessie Hughes IRE 53) 01R03/3- GOLAN WAY 10-10-05 W R B Racing 58 Tim Vaughan 54) 421-0102 MIDNIGHT APPEAL 9-10-05 David Sewell Alan King 55) P0-FP13P PETE THE FEAT (IRE) 10-10-05 G J Larby & P J Smith Charlie Longsdon 56) 125010 TWIRLING MAGNET (IRE) 8-10-05 Gay Smith Jonjo O'Neill 57) 302-FU0 VESPER BELL (IRE) 8-10-05 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 58) 400123- AWAY WE GO (IRE) 11-10-04 O'Gorman Partnership Willie Mullins IRE 59) 01631P MART LANE (IRE) 9-10-04 Jim Stewart Dr Richard Newland 60) 001140 RENARD (FR) 9-10-04 ROA Arkle Partnership Venetia Williams 61) 612-00P SAME DIFFERENCE (IRE) 8-10-04 Mrs R Vaughan Nigel Twiston-Davies 62) 5/4/14PP-0 THE PACKAGE 11-10-04 The Johnson Family David Pipe 63) 11P-03P WELL REFRESHED 10-10-04 Patrick Wilmott Gary Moore 64) 15211-P0 RAZ DE MAREE (FR) 9-10-03 Dessie Hughes Dessie Hughes IRE 65)114P-01 ROSE OF THE MOON (IRE) 9-10-03 Middleham Park Racing XXXIII & Partners David O'Meara 66) 0/11220/- SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM (IRE) 10-10-03 Liam Breslin Nicky Henderson 67) 606F0-12 TATENEN (FR) 10-10-03 The Stewart Family Richard Rowe 68) 6R3-51P ALVARADO (IRE) 9-10-02 William & Angela Rucker Fergal O'Brien 69) 356-24P HIGHLAND LODGE (IRE) 8-10-02 The Unusual Suspects Emma Lavelle 70) 51433-0 LAST TIME D'ALBAIN (FR) 10-10-02 Fontstown Syndicate Liam Cusack IRE 71) 1P-130P LOST GLORY (NZ) 9-10-02 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill 72) 20-2553 MERRY KING (IRE) 7-10-02 F Gillespie Jonjo O'Neill 73) 23-F3P4 ONE IN A MILAN (IRE) 9-10-02 Paul Langford Evan Williams 74) 1/P10//02-6 PANDORAMA (IRE) 11-10-02 B Mellon/P McBride/Michael D Muldoon Noel Meade IRE 75) 3P1-250 GOONYELLA (IRE) 7-10-01 Ann & Alan Potts Partnership Jim Dreaper IRE 76) 1162-0P GOULANES (IRE) 8-10-01 Roger Brookhouse David Pipe 77) 3400-10 IKORODU ROAD 11-10-01 W J Odell Matt Sheppard 78) 16-060P LIBERTY COUNSEL (IRE) 11-10-01 Neale/Murtagh Partnership Dot Love IRE 79) 14406-5 SWING BILL (FR) 13-10-01 Halewood International Ltd David Pipe 80) 113/04P-0 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 10-10-00 Jackie Mullins Willie Mullins IRE 81) B/0010-54 SOLL 9-10-00 Derrick Mossop Jo Hughes 82) 66/3124/-0 UP THE BEAT 9-10-00 Mrs A M Varmen/R J D Varmen Willie Mullins IRE 83) 121114 MINELLA FOR VALUE (IRE) 8-9-13 Maxilead Limited John Butler 84) 1-2301P NIGHT IN MILAN (IRE) 8-9-13 Richard Collins Keith Reveley 85) 3000-04 SAINT ARE (FR) 8-9-13 David Fox Tim Vaughan 86) 22/0-P50P OUT NOW (IRE) 10-9-12 Dermot Cox/Nelius Hayes Edward O'Grady IRE 87) 62-5023 TRANQUIL SEA (IRE) 12-9-12 No Dramas Partnership 1 Warren Greatrex 88) 13/304-4 ALFIE SHERRIN 11-9-11 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill 89) 1P0-332 COURT BY SURPRISE (IRE) 9-9-11 Nick Mustoe Emma Lavelle 90) U20441 ROCKYABOYA (IRE) 10-9-11 P W Mullins Willie Mullins IRE 91) 03F-000 ROMANESCO (FR) 9-9-11 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE 92) 2B6-P51 THERE'S NO PANIC (IRE) 9-9-11 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls 93) 62P-0B20 ORPHEUS VALLEY (IRE) 11-9-10 No Horse Box Syndicate Tom Gibney IRE 94) 6050F-03 QUISCOVER FONTAINE (FR) 10-9-10 J P McManus Enda Bolger IRE 95) F11110 STANDING OVATION (IRE) 7-9-10 The Bravo Partnership David Pipe 96) 103-00P WYCK HILL (IRE) 10-9-10 J P McManus David Bridgwater 97) 0-33412 BAILE ANRAI (IRE) 10-9-09 Massive Dan Skelton 98) 2110F0 GULLIBLE GORDON (IRE) 11-9-09 Karen Bowen Peter Bowen 99) PP/4-P05 QUINZ (FR) 10-9-09 Andrew Cohen Philip Hobbs 100) 1-24003 UNDERTHEBOARDWALK (IRE) 8-9-08 Independent Syndicate Tony Martin IRE 101) 6-1FF11 WRONG TURN (IRE) 8-9-08 John Breslin Tony Martin IRE 102) 0-P5325 ANY CURRENCY (IRE) 11-9-06 Cash Is King Martin Keighley 103) P023-42 REAL MILAN (IRE) 9-9-06 Diana Whateley Donald McCain 104) 6-5U024P SIR DU BEARN (FR) 8-9-06 Mickey Bowen Peter Bowen 105) F-04654 SOLIX (FR) 8-9-06 Paul Vogt Ian Williams 106) 3313F65 STORM SURVIVOR (IRE) 8-9-06 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill 107) 013444 VICTRIX GALE (IRE) 8-9-06 Badgers Syndicate Tony Martin IRE 108) 000035 WHODOYOUTHINK (IRE) 9-9-06 Redgap Partnership Oliver McKiernan IRE 109) 004-26P TOUR DES CHAMPS (FR) 7-9-04 Raymond Mould Nigel Twiston-Davies 110) 13-2520P BOB FORD (IRE) 7-9-03 The Bob Ford Partnership Rebecca Curtis 111) 104F0U LIVING NEXT DOOR (IRE) 8-9-03 John Breslin Tony Martin IRE 112) 4-22112 MERLIN'S WISH 9-9-02 Miss R Toppin Martin Keighley 113) 121300 SERGEANT PINK (IRE) 8-8-11 Andrew Sayer Dianne Sayer 114) 0-P000P TARQUINIUS (FR) 11-8-11 Richard Gilbert Gordon Elliott IRE
Long Run 11-9. Cor blimey. Another example of the horse racing authorities in this country persecuting greatness. The did it with ‘King’ Kieren, they did it with Mr Henderson in the past and now they’ve done it to the forum’s favourite again. How on earth can he get put within 1 pound of Tidal Bay?!? The one consolation is that the weights have been most deffo definitely compressed and he will have to give not much more than a stone to anything that makes the ‘cut’. Initial reaction though is ‘doooooooooooooooh’. Other early thoughts. Home Farm looks nicely weighted on 10-6 and the aforementioned Katenko has been done no favours in being allotted as high as 11-4.
That grade one at the weekend must have been atrocious if Tidal Bay gets a 7lb allowance for coming second.
