After a fantastic 3 points tonight against the team directly above us, and with Morecambe losing at Sheffield Wednesday, Neil Harris enjoying the moment with the Rainham End...
We possibly rode our luck at times during the game and you could see how nervous our players were in the second half just to hold out but that 3 points should do the players a world of good. It's also refreshing to know we can win whilst still not at full potential. For the first time in several months, us Gills fans have something to be excited about. Whether we can stay up remains to be seen, but there may just now be a small glimmer of hope and that can only be attributed to Neil Harris.
I think we should have been 3, or 4 up by half time... Definitely too deep (( but not exclusively )), in the 2nd half... Overall, the effort on display was good.. It will probably not get enough points to avoid relegation - but - it bodes well for recovering next season... Most importantly, the effort is what I personally come to watch... Not always pretty, or overly full of quality - but - commitment to challenge and look interested.... I even think that the set-up / tactics inspired Ehmer to have a much better game ( and put in a brilliant block late in the game. )... Thank you (all) for giving some reasonable 'entertainment.'
Let's be realistic....Gills WONT avoid relegation ! I'll spare you my thoughts regarding the 'political' reasons why Gills were destined for relegation BEFORE the season started (( although the injury list hasn't helped.)) ....... I'll 'spare' you - because the reasons depress me - and I don't want to spread the misery - but fans need to realise that there is NO 'Great Escape.'..... If you look at the 14 games we have left, Gills are on 26 points, and need to get to a minimum of 50 for a chance of safety.... That's (at least) 24 points (( approximately 8 wins from those 14 games .)) Given the 'pedigree' of the opponents, I will be surprised if we win more than 3 or 4 games.... If we win 4, and draw the others (( in other words - remaining UNBEATEN )), it will only be 48 points --- NOT ENOUGH ......... and I can't see Gills NOT losing a few more games before the end of the season.
Certainly is very unlikely we will stay up but we have two home matches coming up. Both I would say winnable, if we win both probably be just 2 points of safety. Those 2 games will be vital if we stand any chance. Will mean have to win one more game than teams around us which is definitely possible
The good news last night, Crewe lost. The bad news last night, Doncaster won, but it still leaves them a point off us, and we have one game in hand. Plymouth Saturday, I'd say we need at least a point, going into the big one against AFC. I know the target is usually 50+ points, but the only way we can look at this with hope is to say Wimbledon in 20th, are 5 points ahead of us, if we beat them we reduce the deficit by 3 points albeit they have a game in hand. What could screw us is our GD....here we go again...
Stick your neck out time ! I see that brb is still being (too) optimistic - so - let's see how far out he wants to stick his neck.... Below are the remaining 13 games - and my assessment ( optimistic ) guess of points from each. AFC Wimbledon ( H).... A MUST win... 3 points Lincoln (A) 1 point Bolton (H) 1 Doncaster ( A) ... MUST win... 1 - 3 points Charlton (A) 0- 1 Sheff Wed (H) 0 - 1 Accrington (A) 0 - 1 Sunderland (A) 0 Wycombe (H) 0 - 1 Cheltenham (A) 1 Fleetwood (H) 3 Portsmouth (A) 0 Rotherham ( H) 0--1 That's a total of between 10 and an extremely hopeful 17 points.... Even if I was as optimistic as three people called brb, that's a grand total of 43 points ------ NOWHERE enough to save the team from relegation... My (conservative) estimate of our final points haul is 40, with Gills ending 23rd in the table...... you see, I can be optimistic - I didn't say we'll be bottom! .....Now it's your turn.
I've moved the goal posts for this season though. Well after our season under Evans, it was best we didn't give the opposition goalposts to score between. Anyway, I would normally look at the criteria of requiring 50/51 points, but what is the point, because as you have demonstrated mate, we are not going to achieve it, by any stretch of the imagination. So it's like we are now hanging on the cliff edge, waiting to be pushed or slip into L2 OR I can be optimistic, some people would call it stark raving bonkers, but me, well let's go for optimisitic... We ONLY need to get more points than Wimbledon, see simple eh!..What do you mean NO! Look forget about the others of Morecambe, Crewe, Doncaster, play along now, keep the objective simple, someone has nicked my abacus. So simple, Wimbledon have 5 more points than us, IF...and I know that's a massive IF, we beat Wimbledon on Tuesday, we will only be 2 points behind them. What do you mean but they have a game in hand. ... look just behave for a minute, they might lose their game in hand, anyone else see that flying pig over Priestfield this morning, I expect the Chairman will say it was flying dangerously. it's a joke Mr Chariman. Anyway let's keep on topic, win Tuesday, and we only need 2 more points to catch them, if Wimbledon slip up, and they will. Hmmm....looking at that fixture list you wrote out, I can only see two games we might win, did I ever tell you about the dead parrot sketch.
It's not looking much better for AFC Wimbledon...... (( but if they DON'T lose to Gills, their 5 point advantage is going to be difficult to catch.)) AFC Wimbledon appear to be the only (( remotely realistic )), team that Gills might be able to catch..... Here are their fixtures - along with my thoughts re points from each game. Gills (A) 0 ( fingers crossed ) Doncaster (H) 3 Wigan (A) 0 Plymouth (A) 0 Lincoln (H) 3 Cheltenham (A) 1 - 3 Charlton (H) 1 Cambridge (H) 3 Sheff Wed (A) 0 MK Dons (H) 1 Crewe (A) 1 Wycombe (H) 0 -1 Fleetwood (A) 1 That makes a total of 14 - 17 to add to 31.... Brb's theory is possible.... IF Gills beat Wimbledon tomorrow.... Neither team will fancy their 'run-in' -- but, I believe that Gills last 9 games are tougher than Wimbledon's last 5.
Another team with a squeaky bum ! Despite Fleetwood being on 32 points, and a game in hand + goal difference, I don't think they can relax... Here are their fixtures, together with my 'predicted' points haul. Lincoln (H) to be arranged 3 points Sheff Wed (H) TBA 0 Portsmouth (A) 0 Wigan (A) 0 Ipswich (H) 0 Sunderland (A) 0 Burton (A) o Doncaster (H) 3 Wycombe (A) 0 Crewe ( A) 1 Acc Stanley (H) 3 Oxford (H) o Gills (A) 0 AFC Wimb (H) 3 Bolton (A) 0 On the face of it, I have only given Fleetwood 13 points from the above games.... with a final total of about 45 points.... This is not impossible for Gills to achieve ( by some miracle )......... ...... Does it suggest that the 'safety' points figure may be a record low this season ??... will Gills be relegated by their awful goal difference ?? Fleetwood v AFC Wimbledon on the final day of the season could be an interesting fixture -- it wouldn't surprise me if a draw would ensure that both sides stay in L1.
... Well -- that's why I don't do the 'Prediction' league ! In all seriousness, neither team deserved to win the game last night... Gills 'tried' - but - were exposed by their dreadful lack of quality in front of goal. .... and if we're just going to hoof the ball - why have only Oliver upfront... The one time he won a decent ball ( first half ), he beat the keeper and headed the ball to ... nobody (who would have had a 'tap in' ) - and how did he miss with his header in the 2nd half ? .... Gills are simply not good enough - even for the 10 points that I thought we would get in our last 13 games (( let alone an improbable 17 points - which still won't be enough. ))
I've been saying for the last two seasons what our problem is, but when you're a fans favourite, you are a fans favourite and no one wants to listen to the contrary, so I tend to keep my mouth shut on the topic. As a result we are now going to get relegated. There is a time when strikers need to step up, last night was another time when they did not. Need a massive clear-out now.
