So vettel has a huge lead in the championship so far with his title rivals (Button, Hamilton & Alonso) only having won one race each. Is it possible for them to claw back that giant lead?... well look at this as it is an interesting comparison. Vettel 2011: 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 Alonso 2006: 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 these are the finishes of the first nine races. now cast back to 2006 and you may remember schumacher in the ferrari managed to claw back the lead and with a bigger differense between 1st 2nd and 3rd for points it can be quicker to catch up. So could it happen? Discuss...
"Discuss?" Hmm… just when I was considering coming to the forum to notDiscuss anything ever again, and throw my computer out of the window. But having thought better of it, I'll just read the rest of your post again… OK, I'm back. Yes, your comparison is interesting. Not only do they have the same tally of results in common, but also something else which I believe to be very relevant: they are both driving one of the FIA's favourite cars… Do notDiscuss…
oh cosi you joker. But on the point it is fairly uncanny dont you think? Im living in hope the end of this season is going to become a cracker! I dont mind if Vettel wins but as long as a challenge is in place
Oh yes, I entirely agree with your point Bando: it is indeed uncannily similar and although it has felt pretty much like 2006, I was not aware of the statistical similarity until you mentioned it here. We can only hope that the remainder of the season will hold people's interest; and obviously if Alonso can claw back the deficit, this will make the outcome less predictable. However, I believe such hopefulness will be in vain this season…
It's worth pointing out though that in 2006, Schu had two wins, four 2nd places, 5th, 6th and a retirement which in today's points system would total 140. Webber is currently on 124 and affectively, isn't going to be allowed to challenge Vettel. The next closest person is Alonso with 112, with Button and Hamilton on 109. It's a lost cause frankly.
The magic number to stop this possible charge of Alonso beating seb is a tally of 363 points. This is only if Alonso is able to win every race from Germany to Brazil or the magic number gets lower every time he doesn't win a GP. This of course is unlikely considering the field of competition against Alonso. If this was to happen Sebastian has to score 159 points from now on to the end to be able to lock out anything Alonso can dish out. Vettel would have to finish 2nd x9 to win the WDC, this is also if Alonso is able to win every race from now on. Again both unlikely to happen as both are so close in driver/car combo and very unlikely that seb will not win again. Also McLaren will be in the thick of it, maybe Mercedes towards the last quarter. But finishing 3rd at every GP with Alonso winning them all would make Seb lose the WDC lead by Abu Dhabi and giving us a title fight in Brazil. Out of all this dirge I've written up on a bit of toilet paper on the top of my head doing a number 2, the most important thing for Sebastian is to get those 159 points and just lock it out as quick as possible. Please discuss and call me mad as you want.
159 with 10 races left. That is 16 points per race. If Alonso gets all podiums from now which I think is probable he will get about 20 points on average which is 200 points. minus the amount behind he is to Vettel is 113. Vettel needs less than 12 points per race on average(4th place). It is basically over realistically, but a couple of retirements on Vettel's end could change that.
This thread is following along the same lines as this: http://www.not606.com/showthread.php/64597-Clawing-back-the-lead Shouldn't it be merged before we end up with repetitious points in both?
Still doesn't hurt to try and take a few wins from Sebastian. And it would stop Red Bull getting ready for 2012.
Interesting how you have dismissed Webber's chances even though he is Vettel's closest rival in the Champoinship - quite rightly I'd say It is very unlikely for anyone other than Vettel to win the 2011 Championship - the title is 100% in Vettel hand's now and even if Alonso wins every race, he needs Vettel to mess up a few times as well - anything to keep Vettel off the podium basically. Things like driver errors, bad lack, mechanical failures/car problems and collisions with other drivers could quite easily restrict Vettel's points to 0 in a race. If that were to happen just twice, Alonso will be back in the game and suddenly the pressure will be back on Vettel and he might not cope very well with that added pressure. It's going to take a phenomenal second half of the season from Alonso, but this "do or die" approach of taking every race as if it's the last race of the season could be exactly what he needs to make a successful comeback. With the greatest respect to Vettel and Newey, both the car and driver have weaknesses which can be exploited. When I say weaknesses, I mean vs Alonso and the F150. RB7 - Tyre management - one of the biggest strenghts of the car is how quickly it heats up the tyres, but over a stint that becomes a problem, which is quite evident with Mark Webber when he's in dirty air, and whenever Vettel is stuck behind someone his tyres don't last very long either. The F150 doesn't have that problem. - Speed - Due to the superior downforce, Red Bull usually have a deficit in straight line speed compared to Ferrari. In addition Red Bull's DRS is better for qualifying. This could cause further problems for Vettel should he find himself in a position where he needs to overtake. - Traction - Red Bull are good in this area, but we saw in Barcelona that Ferrari are a step ahead of them, when Vettel couldn't stay with Alonso in that final sector, which caused overtaking difficulties. - KERS - Not only do Red Bull have a weaker KERS but it's also unreliable - meaning defending could be a problem as well Vettel - Tyre management - People say he's good at managing his tyres, but most of the time he's in clean air out in front. At Silverstone in Hamilton's dirty air, he destroyed his tyres - maybe the car was mostly to blame, but it is something that for this year, could hinder Vettel. - Overtaking - Apart from having just pitted (with advantage of fresh tyres), Vettel hasn't really done many overtakes. Similarly, he hasn't produced great memorable overtakes like Hamilton and Alonso have. In Silverstone he failed to overtake Hamilton with a much faster car - in fact, he didn't even come close to having a proper go at him, while Alonso took just 1 lap to get past Hamilton (having closed the gap). Not saying Vettel can't overtake, just that this could be another weakness for him. - Pressure - Vettel has coped well at times but he bottled it in Canada and Button wasn't exactly close to his gearbox. I don't think his "crash kid" alter-ego will return this year, but I think if put under enough pressure, Vettel will crumble. As far as I'm aware, the greatest comeback in F1 history was Hunt vs Lauda in 1976. Under the current points system, Hunt would have been 98 points behind Lauda with 9 races remaining. The circumstances are obviously different, but why can't Alonso come back from 92 points behind with 10 races remaining? I would love nothing more than to see Alonso and Vettel fight for the Championship all the way to Brazil, but once again I'll say it is very unlikely for anyone other than Vettel to win it. Sorry for the long post, hope it was worth reading.
Good read forza. I would only say the problem with overtaking is mostly to do with the Renault engine and extra downforce, thats my only issue regarding his overtakes since he did plenty in his toro Rosso days with a Ferrari engine.
but as I stated above the point differences are bigger between 1st 2nd 3rd etc so would be easier to claw back. If Alonso button or Hamilton win the next race then the challenge is on but if Vettel wins it will probably be all over. We have 1 last hope
