Thought I'd post a thread looking at the many horses we thought were potential bankers going into the festival, reviewing their performances, and asking the questions as to their futures. Day 1 The Arkle: Sprinter Sacre I, for one, was a doubter of Sprinter Sacre - I thought he would struggle coming up the hill, and that given a serious fight he might be found wanting. A couple of things to note: 1) Al Ferof clattered a fence. In my opinion this put him out of the race. 2) Sprinter Sacre did loose ground from the bottom of the hill to the finish line. These two things are, however, completely irrelevant. Sprinter Sacre jumped phonomenally, ran beautifully, and, in my opinion, had plenty left in the tank when crossing the line. (At this point I have to hold my hands up and say I was completely wrong about Sprinter Sacre). This was the kind of performance you don't get to witness very often, and I am proud to say I was there. Sprinter Sacre, will, I think, walk away with another prize at Aintree, finishing the season unbeaten. Next year the real work starts. How far will Sprinter Sacre win the Maghul by? Are there any genuine challengers to him for next years Champion Chase? Verdict: Phonomenal The Champion Hurdle: Hurricane Fly I am, in short, Hurricane Fly's greatest fan. This was my biggest bet of the festival, and if it weren't for Hunt Ball and Une Artiste I would never have made it back. It was therefore a massive disappointment to see him get beaten. I think we have to admit that maybe he simply doesn't have the pace to keep up with a stiffly run two miles on good ground. Rock on Ruby ran a fantastic race, and next years race will be extremely interesting - Zarkandar looked a fantastic prospect with the right ride, and with the addition of Unaccompanied, Grandouet, Spirit Son, Peddlers Cross (is anyone interested in Cinders and Ashes?) and any number of the Triumph horses it could be a very classy contest. So what remains for the Fly? Well, firstly, murdering the Irish. I fully expect a winning return to Punchestown (assuming Rock on Ruby/Spirit Son doesn't go), and then, assuming he remains fit, a build up to next years Champion Hurdle as a 9 year old defeated champion. Questions: Has the Hurricane been ousted as a hype horse? Would you have him for next years renewal? Verdict: Not as good as I thought (but still unbeatable in a sprint finish) The Mares Hurdle: Quevega Having won the three previous renewals, Quevega was the hot favourite for this race, going off at about 4/7 on the course. She won comfortably, as is always the case. There is little more to be said about the race - she quickened away from them after the last and won by four lengths or so. Looking to the future then, there is, as always, the Punchestown World Hurdle to consider. After smashing the boys last year, she should line up favourite. In my opinion this years looks to be much more challenging than last years though, with the likes of Voler la Vedette and the possibility of Dynaste or Smad Place to contend with, and if more than one of that trio line up, I think I will consider a lay(!). Voler la Vedette ran a phonomenal race at Cheltenham, and such strong staying power will make for a rare challenge to Quevega (who, remember, is rated 158, not 180) in May. Questions: Can Voler la Vedette upset the Queen of Irish racing? Will it be another facile 5/5 next year? Verdict: Classy winner, but not beaten a lot What do you think the future holds for these favourites? Is there still more to be seen from Hurricane Fly? Will Quevega ever meet her match? Is Sprinter Sacre really already better than Moscow Flyer?
William Hill Supreme... I already had a ante post bet on Darlan e/w but when the race came up on the day i picked out Prospect Wells as i wasnt so sure about Darlan at the off... As it was Darlan ran a good race and i was sure that i would be in with a chance, but from a little way out Cinders And Ashes always looked the winner. Maguire looked in complete control of the horse and race... Got a little back from Darlan finishing 2nd... Arkle... I just thought after the run at Newbury that Sprinter Sacre would be very hard to beat in this, and oh my god were we proved right... I was impressed with that run then but he looked so much better in this... Looked far and away the best horse in this from a long way out... Really looking froward to see where and how far Sprinter Sacre can go now. Only 6 at the moment it will be a good one to keep watching and eventually improve to be a top stayer in time... On a slightly differet note i actually thought Cue Card ran on well though had Al Ferof jumped better he may well have got 2nd... I did back Sprinter Sacre at 10/11 though not a fortune i got some more betting money back... JLT... I didnt much invested in this but i did go with but Hold On Julio and Our Mick as my picks. I was disapointed with Hold On Julio to be honest and not wanting to be too critical but i dont think he got the best ride from Thornton... Our Mick plugged away from the bottom of the hill but i didnt see Alfie Sherrin winning this from the start... Bit of a shocker in all... Stan James Champ Hurdle... I was big into Zarkandar ante post and had some good money at what i thought at the time were big prices, 12/1 and 10/1. I say that as Zarkandar drifted bad on the day out to 9's in the end but it was one that i thought would make the places. I was always looking at placing as i just thought that The Fly would be so hard to beat but still though Zarkandar would push him. From the bottom of the hill i wasnt hopeful of getting anything back or indeed losing to The Fly. But if you look back at the race from the last to the finish Zarkandar got up the hill very well and so i will take some comfort from that and that we will see Zarkandar get better and in time may claim one of the biggy's... Though maybe a further trip would suit, i think he would be good to take this race on again next year... As for the eventual winner Rock On Ruby i missed this one... I think we all knew that the trip wouldnt be a issue but i was still suprised all the same... Again the best horse on the day won, and won with some style to be fair... I was really gobsmaked that Overturn got 2nd and i never had Binocular as the winner... Lost money on the race but will be following Zarkandar again... Bit of a muddled race to be fair as i dont think anyone predicted this outcome... Not one to stay in the minds of many unless you had the winner... Handicap Chase X-Country... No bet but went with Scotsirish and Dancing Tornado as ones i thought would do well... Unfortunately we lost Scotsirish and also Garde Champetre to this race and that marred what up to now was turning out to be a good opening day at the festival... OLBG Mares... Only one horse in this and she duly delivered... Quevega is just simply in a class of her own... Though i missed out the one Sticky boy was very keen on, the 2nd placed mare Kentford Grey Lady. 14's was a great price for a e/w call but alas i didnt take Sticks advice... Pulteney Nov Hnadicap Chase... That'll Do was my pick early in the day but i have to confess to jumping onto the growing support of Hunts Ball as the day went on. I am still amazed at how much weight this horse has gone up this year. Its been unbelievable as at the beginning of the year he was off a mark of 69 and had risen to 142 before this 8 lenghts victory...!!! That'll Do came in 6th but i escaped with the 13/2 winner and was just up for the day... A good day but could have bee so much better... Always the case but a great opening day never the less...
Just lifted this from the Sporting Life website: Finally, it's worth taking heed of the words of Ruby Walsh who, in the aftermath of the Gold Cup, told reporters: "If horses could talk it would be a lot easier as they could tell you how they were feeling. "If that was the case, half the horses I've ridden this week wouldn't have run." Paul Nicholls' trained horses could prove to be a very different proposition at the remaining spring festivals and shouldn't be judged too harshly on their Cheltenham efforts.
As I also attended on day 1 I'll add my tale of woe: We arrived in Cheltenham around 11.00 and parked at an "associate's" house just over the back of the course (adjacent to the fence at the top of the hill). We walked along the top of the course where I got some nice photos of the fences and hurdles (I can upload these if anyone is interested) and I must say the undulations of the course were a lot more apparrent from this side of the track. Halfway up the back we spotted Barry Geraghty walking the chase course and wished him the best of luck. After getting into the course and putting on the placepot it was down to the Guiness Village for a couple of swift ones (4.30 a pint this year). We went to the parade ring to look at the novices for the first race and I was very happy with the way my 2 ante post picks were looking - Tetlami was a picture but Prospect Wells looked very, very fit and well. We all agreed Steps To Freedom was carrying plenty of condition and was already looking like a chaser. As it turned out, the better looking of my 2 finished best with Prospect Wells grabbing 5th and Tetlami 11th, and the Nicholls runner looks to have the bigger future. Tetlami ran an honest enough race but lacked the change of pace to get involved at the business end. The winner looks a decent animal, winning readily despite flattening the last. A very good ride by Jason maguire. We rushed to the saddling enclosure to get a look at the Arkle runners and it proved worthwhile as Sprinter Sacre looked absolutely amazing and dwarfed all his rivals. This prompted me to have a decent bet so I was in profit after the 2nd race (despite placepot being down and having bought a round of Guiness). But that was about as good as it got all day. Buoyed by my succes on Sprinter Sacre I had a decent bet on Hold On Julio (who was disappointing, along with every other Alan King horse at the festival). I backed my 3 e/w fancies (Our Mick, Fruity O'Rooney and Magnanimity) e/w on the tote and was rewarded with 2 placed horses. Due to the skinny returns however my 3 bets of a fiver e/w (total stake 30) returned 29 so lost the Julio stake on this race. Undeterred (and having too much Guiness inside me) I lumped on Hurricane Fly to win at 8/11 and Binocular tote place. This was the race where my betting discipline went out the window I'm afraid - staking plan went down the toilet in a blaze of Guiness-fuelled glory. You know the rest of the story so I have basically done 80% of my full-day allowance after 4 races. I wasn't going to bother in the x-country but my mate persuaded me to have a small win bet on Scotsirish, but obviously that ended badly. I had been looking at Balthazar King but had no idea there had been such a gamble on him - the rails bookies don't display historical odds and I'd no idea that BK had been a much bigger price earlier in the day. Would I have backed him if I had known? Dunno. Having had a big ante post double on Quevega and Big Bucks I was praying for the great mare to win, which she duly did. I didn't top up my bet though, preferring to conserve my cash for the lucky last. The last race I was tempted to go on Hunt Ball but I'd picked Bless The Wings weeks ago and, quoting sod's law to myself, I knew if I deserted him now he would go and win. And so the last of my cash was sunk as he was scrubbed along down the hill and I watched gobsmacked as Hunt Ball pinged the last and stormed up the hill. A brilliant day out but I did leave feeling deflated - the 2 Alan King runners I backed (Hold On Julio and Bless The Wings) were both poor. Hurricane Fly, having broken my heart last year when I was on Peddlars Cross, did the same again this year with his poor showing. Looking back more objectively now, it was a fabulous performance by Rock On Ruby and I kicked myself for not having a saver on him as he is in my 10 to follow . I felt priviliged to have witnessed Sprinter Sacre and Quevega, I was amazed and delighted by Hunt Ball, and despite having done my dough I kept telling myself it was only day 1 of 4. Despite trying to be optimistic though, the feeling of disappointment at the dethroning of Hurricane Fly was winning out in the battle for my emotions. As we walked along the front of the Guiness grandstand towards the exit, I glanced down at the track for a final time. I saw Wayne Hutchinson trudging up the home straight, head bowed, and 50 yards behind him the course vet, having attended to Educated Evans in his final moments. The gloom descending over the distant Cleeve Hill seemed to seep into my very soul and we walked in silence back to the car.
Loved the run of Sprinter Sacre. He looks an outstanding prospect. I still don't know what to make of Hurricane Fly and Long Run though. I think the Fly is probably better than what he showed. He was probably the victim of the grind, as was Long Run. A lot of us thought that a long grinding run home might play to Long Run's strengths, but it seems that he can't cut it against the outright, top class stayers, on a testing course. That race could probably be run the same way a dozen times, and Synchronised would beat him home most times. Long Run is a strange animal. He seems to lack that dazzling turn of foot, but can't dig as deep as some of the best. He'll still win more than his fair share of G1 races, but he'll never be another Kauto Star. The Fly too will win a host more top class races, but he'll want a sit and sprint if he's to beat the best.
Nice write up Oddy... Ive never been to Cheltenham and it is something that is on my 'to do' list... Soon i hope as i would hate to miss out on what seems to be a great place and a great course... A crying shame though with the loss of the horses on the day but i hope you have good memories of the day also...
Over all it was a cracking four days. From a punting point it was the best festival I've ever had. Cinders and Ashes pretty much paid for my week and made my Ante Post book a big winner having backed him at prices ranging from 33's to 16's. If ever anything made me continue to bet Ante Post it was this fella. SS hugely impressive and covered my ante post Peddlers Cross losses. Hold on Julio and Mossley made the next one a loser and like most people HF getting turned over crucified most of my ante post accas. X country was a disaster although my ante post losses on Scotsirish don't make a blemish on the tragic loss of both him and GC. Quevaga was just a watching brief and my day ended on a high with Hunt Ball. Brought a tear to the eye.
For me this festival was a real set of highs and lows: I went on Tuesday. Race 1: Cinders and Ashes - had a small ante-post back and lay on betfair, so won a tenner or so having had no bet on the course, couldn't have been more pleased for Donald McCain who'd said all along that he was going to win. Race 2: Phonomenally impressive from Sprinter Sacre, won me a few quid but Al Ferof would have won me a fair few more - up about £80 by now. Race 3: Had a couple of ew bets, both finished out of the frame - up £30 or so, but no disaster... Race 4: Oh no. Really?! My ante-post book had Hurricane Fly, Zarkandar, Binocular, Celestial Halo and Overturn covered for no loss, with Hurricane Fly making me a HEFTY wadge. Rock on Ruby?!? What the ****? Well that wasn't part of the plan. Down about £170. Horrible. Race 5: £10 ew on A New Story at 20-1. I was in the middle of the course, and having seen them turn for home I thought he'd won the race and saved the day - was jumping around like a loon. Oh wait, beaten by Balthazar King by half a length. Still, I'd gone each way, so *only* down about £140. Race 6: No bet - I was sitting on a £20 Quevega/Big Bucks double antepost voucher at just under 4-1, and after the days form I didn't want to make a further mess of things! Race 7: I may have been the second most excited man in Gloucestershire when Hunt Ball jumped clear at the last - having one late last lunge at clawing my winnings back, I'd gone £20 straight on the win at 13-2 and brought myself back to only down £10 (+ my ticket, but happy to pay that for the day) to start afresh on Wednesday. Unbelievably good day out, but I wasn't half sweating for a while! The rest of the festival was significantly less stressful, with everything working out just about evens with the exception of: Sizing Europe dropping me almost as badly as Hurricane Fly and Une Artiste, with £5 ew at 50-1, coming through to make a reasonable success out of the week. (Phonomenally lucky that one, it was a real impulse bet, I will in no way claim to have any brilliant tipping skills whatsoever!!!).
For me this festival was a real set of highs and lows: I went on Tuesday. Race 1: Cinders and Ashes - had a small ante-post back and lay on betfair, so won a tenner or so having had no bet on the course, couldn't have been more pleased for Donald McCain who'd said all along that he was going to win. Race 2: Phonomenally impressive from Sprinter Sacre, won me a few quid but Al Ferof would have won me a fair few more - up about £80 by now. Race 3: Had a couple of ew bets, both finished out of the frame - up £30 or so, but no disaster... Race 4: Oh no. Really?! My ante-post book had Hurricane Fly, Zarkandar, Binocular, Celestial Halo and Overturn covered for no loss, with Hurricane Fly making me a HEFTY wadge. Rock on Ruby?!? What the ****? Well that wasn't part of the plan. Down about £170. Horrible. Race 5: £10 ew on A New Story at 20-1. I was in the middle of the course, and having seen them turn for home I thought he'd won the race and saved the day - was jumping around like a loon. Oh wait, beaten by Balthazar King by half a length. Still, I'd gone each way, so *only* down about £140. Race 6: No bet - I was sitting on a £20 Quevega/Big Bucks double antepost voucher at just under 4-1, and after the days form I didn't want to make a further mess of things! Race 7: I may have been the second most excited man in Gloucestershire when Hunt Ball jumped clear at the last - having one late last lunge at clawing my winnings back, I'd gone £20 straight on the win at 13-2 and brought myself back to only down £10 (+ my ticket, but happy to pay that for the day) to start afresh on Wednesday. Unbelievably good day out, but I wasn't half sweating for a while! The rest of the festival was significantly less stressful, with everything working out just about evens with the exception of: Sizing Europe dropping me almost as badly as Hurricane Fly and Une Artiste, with £5 ew at 50-1, coming through to make a reasonable success out of the week. (Phonomenally lucky that one, it was a real impulse bet, I will in no way claim to have any brilliant tipping skills whatsoever!!!).
Some great write ups here. I still haven't gone through my P/L though I'm confident it is a P even if only a small one. What I do know is the winners I had were Cinders & Ashes, Rock on Ruby, Quevega, Bobs Worth, Big Bucks, Sir des Champs and Salsify, plus decent each way picks up Mountbazon, Monksland and a very decent pick up on The Giant Bolster. The common denominator re the above ? All non handicaps ! My week was always centred around a big Quevega/Big Bucks ante post double and a lumpy single on Quevega but If I hadn't had a bet in the handicaps my P/L would be I'm sure about 100% better, of course I'll forget this by next March but if ever there were lessons to be learned.....
Cracking write up Oddy but I can't agree with the above. Prospect Wells looked dull in his coat and like he hadn't come to himself at all. I'm surprised he ran as well as he did given paddock appearances. Steps To Freedom was very buzzy in the pre-parade but looked fit, but more of a flat racer than a chaser in the making, in my opinion of course. To my eye the clear paddock pick, and by some substantial margin, was the winner Cinders And Ashes. I didn't fancy him on the formbook at all but he appeared to be right on top of his form in the paddock and backed him in an open looking race accordingly. A good way to start the Festival.
I must admit I'm no paddock expert but well done if you had C&A as the paddock pick and backed him accordingly. At least I had Sprinter Sacre as the paddock pick
Haha nice one. I never really know what to look for in the paddock, I'm not a good judge so tend to have a look but try not to let it affect my betting. Would be a nice skill to have, but I think I've just never spent enough time around horses to be honest...
I also have basically no idea when it comes to the paddock. I know what I'm supposed to be looking at/for I just can't tell if what's there is good or bad. I can do a coat up to a point and a little bit of muscle but when it comes the rest such as balance, conformation ect i'm a complete novice. That said I had Cinder's and Ashes as the horse with the stand out form in the book. Funny sport this is, all about opinions. As a day 1 attendee I'll share my day in a couple of hours when I have time as I have enjoyed this thread. I am afraid it involves rather more time spent drinking my winnings in the Guiness tent than studying the horses' coats in the parade ring
The day, for me, started in London at too early o'clock. That said, we left at about 9am hoping to arrive for 12-12.30. We were on time as well until we hit terrible traffic approaching the course. I have since learned that we went a very novicey way into Cheltenham. Anyway we sat and sat in the traffic but it was still 12.30 and we were confident of making the first race. I told my mates that I was all over Cinders and Ashes in the first. I wasn't on as of yet but I'd spent most of the day before with as much video form as I could find and he was my bet of the day. Sure enough texts flew round (from their phones as all of my friends stopped asking for/listening to tips from me years ago!) and across the globe I was responsible for way to much money going onto Cinders and Ashes given my track record!! We were told, in no uncertain terms, at 12.45pm that we had "no chance" of making the first race by a couple of local bobbies and sure enough we didn't make it to the entrance of the course until 1.10 so things were looking desperate. **** this I cried as I turned right into a private field and not left into the course. At the cost of a fiver we parked up instantly and made our way towards the course (also provides a great way to get out quickly). I am not ashamed to admit that all dignity went out of the window and we even had a 'gentle' trot for some of the way. I say gentle - it would have looked gentle to those we passed who were sitting in their cars but I can assure you it didn't feel gentle! Anyway we were in the course for 1.25 and were ready to begin our day. We roared home Maguire in the first and laughed about how good a decision it was parking in the field. If I'd been sat in the car with no money on I'd have been fuming plus experiencing the roar for the first time is worth at least a fiver of anyone's money. Despite the fact that I'd given my companions Cinders and Ashes it was somehow my round because I 'had the most on'. Not sure how that works really but nonetheless I got the round in. We spent rather longer than intended in the Guiness tent because you can't take your drinks out. So much so that I had to run to the Tote to get my next bet on. In my rush I didn't manage to get the Sprinter Sacre - Cue Card forecast that I'd been talking up since Christmas on but I did get a single on Sprinter Sacre. I was a little gutted though I know I'd have had much less on the forecast than I did on Sprinter Sacre so I wasn't too much out of pocket and it was amazing being able to just focus on Sprinter Sacre and revel in the ease and class of his victory. Credit to many of you on not606 too because at the start of the NH season i was in the 'won't get up the hill' camp but many you, and the preview nights and his Newbury perfomance, persuaded me to think otherwise. Food and the toilets were next on the agenda and I have to say it was a big negative of the day that that was all we were able to achieve in the 35-40 minutes in between the races. Too many people = too long queuing! Handicaps at Cheltenham are as tough as it gets so I fired some small stake win only bullets at 4 horses in the next race. Two were unplaced but I was a little aggrieved to have picked out both Our Mick and Fruity O'Rooney and still come away with nothing to show for it. We went straight to the parade ring for the Champion Hurdle and I have to say I said to one of my companions that Hurricane Fly and Binocular both looked a bit shoddy and that Overturn looked in top nick. Hurricane Fly in particular had a blotchy and dull coat but I remember from one of the write ups on here that someone said Hurricane Fly has always been 'a desperate looking animal' plus I am not good enough on 'Paddock Picks' to back any of my own inclinations. For all I know Hurricane Fly might have been the best looking there to the trained eye. So the Fly win was the bet - he couldn't be beaten I said. Rock on Ruby always looked the winner from around the half way mark and going round the bend I said Rock on Ruby has this in the bag. As Simon Holt says, the horse that wins the Champion Hurdle is often the one that travels best on the day and that was very much Rock on Ruby. I was delighted for Noel Feihly, he's finally getting the recognition his talent deserves imo. For a second after the last hurlde I thought the Fly might actually get up close home but having watched the replays it's clear that Rock on Ruby simply idled a bit out front. He was most impressive, though I still think the Fly is the one to beat next year. Next up was what I think is the worst race of the week. I wasn't too concerned about watching it so we got our bets on early. I seemed to remember Balthazar King was going nicely in X country race when the lead horse caused carnage towards the end of last year so I went on him at 11/1 and talked one of my friends into it too and off we went back to the Guiness tent. Dickie Johnson gave our selection a great ride and I thought A New Story was desperately unlucky but we weren't too upset . We had no idea of the two ill-fated horses either. <dove> . In the next I was wary of Quevega after the Fly's perfomance but we joined the queue for the one on course bookie who were going 8/13 and had a decent sized bet nonetheless. After the race the only thing longer than the queue to that bookmaker were the payout guys' faces!! To the Guiness tent for a couple more and then back for the lucky last. After my selection, That'lldo, fell early on I was emotionally backing Hunt Ball and we couldn't believe how easily he won. A number of the field had been laid out for this race and must have been really well in so it was wonderful to see Hunt Ball 'serve it up to them' as the owner said. It will be fascinating to see where he goes next and it's been a great story all season. All in all a great day out and it was great that it was all paid for by the on course bookies. The sheer amount of people was a frustration but it's just something one has to put up with I guess. It was a pleasure and a joy to see Sprinter Sacre though.
