Evening lads. Henderson has been unbelievable so far. McCain has been almost as good. Mullins is hitting a little bit of form with his Neptune horses running very well in defeat and his bumper horses once again proving their is only one King of the Bumpers. Nicholls... ahem. Has anyone checked whether he knows Cheltenham started this week and not next? Onto my selections: Jewson 1.30 Peddlers Cross (7/2) I think McCain is going to prove to us all that taking him out of the Arkle was the sensible move. If this lad runs up to his previous festival form (I know it has been over hurdles and these are fences) then nothing will live with him. We saw today with First Lieutenant how much a horse can be transformed by lovely spring ground as opposed to horrible, turgid, sticky winter slop. I think Peddlers will prove alot of the doubters wrong on Thursday. Sir Des Champs is the obvious threat as is Solix (based on trainer form). Pertemps Final 2.05 Buena Vista e/w (11/1) Maybe he's getting a little long in the tooth for all this but at the end of the day this lad excels at the Cheltenham Festival where he has form figures of 6365211. He's 2lbs higher than last year but has a 10lb claimer on his back as opposed to just 5lbs last time so in effect runs off 3 lbs lighter. A huge run is on the cards. Ryanair Chase 2.40 Somersby e/w (6/1) I am convinced he's got a huge run in him at this trip. His win last time out is now looking like a serious piece of form and at 6/1 is a fair each way price. Ladbrokes World Hurdle 3.20 So Young e/w in the w/o Big bucks market (10/1) I keep trying to convince myself to go against Big Bucks as I'm not backing that champ at likely prices and my acca's are down the toilet! The one's I prefer is So Young. I'd be shocked if he can beat Big Bucks but the form of last years Neptune is unbelievable. Rock on Ruby now Champion Hurdler, First Lieutenant could/should arguably have won the RSA had he not been keen over the first mile and a half. Rock solid form. Trifolium beaten like he didn't exist last time out. He's now run second in the Supreme Novices. Again rock solid form. It does worry me that Paul Townend opts for Thousand Stars as he will love the extra trip but I want a bit of value if i'm against Big Bucks and Thousand Stars run last time out worries me slightly. Ideal scenario is Big Bucks wins, So Young second. Byrne Group Plate 4pm Divers (7/1) and Schindlers Gold (50/1) both each way I backed Divers last year and will be going in headfirst again this. Loves Cheltenham. His trainer has obviously laid him out for Thursday. Schindlers gold is really interesting - dropped down the handicap like a lead balloon after being given a mark that was most probably incredibly harsh during the summer. I love the trainer though and know he can ready one for the festival. Cynical me says they've been pulling him up on purpose to get his mark down... well it's worked. Kim Muir 4.40 Be There in Five (50/1) e/w This is a decent amateur. Needles uses him when he's got a winner to land and i'm expecting a big run. His recent form is dreadful admittedly but if he'd have won at any point there's no way he'd be getting in here with a workable mark. The way Henderson's horses have been flying today I feel like this is a horse I have to back at big odds.
1.30 The Jewson feels like it should be called the âNot Quite Good Enough Novices Chaseâ and as such its only a grade 2. This is a competitive renewal and Peddlars Cross, Sir Des Champs and Cristal Bonus are all in with big shouts. The one that tempts me though is CHAMPION COURT, useful over hurdles and has taken well to chasing. He is a very sound and bold jumper and has excellent track form. I think he is a cracking EW bet at his current price. 2.05 The handicap good things havenât done the business over the first two days and its not hard to look past this one for me. I like Cape Tribulation a lot, he was given an easy race last time out with this possibly in mind. He should go very well. However, at the bottom of the handicap lurks SCOTSBROOK CLOUD carrying only 10-6 and with a claimer removing another five! His only below par effort this season came on totally unsuitable ground. He is as game as they come and will relish a battle up the hill if he is there at the death. It sounds ridiculous but he really is a live outsider at huge odds. (80-1) 2.40 It pains me to say this but my boy Somersby will probably find a festival win beyond reach again. I hope he proves me wrong but if head rules heart then it must be RIVERSIDE DRIVE. Back from injury and better than ever. He really is a class animal and the yard are in pretty good nick too. 3.20 The Big One for the Big One and history beckons. He cant be backed by us lesser mortals so we need to find an each way shout. The each way market is made interesting with the inclusion of the doubtful stayer Oscar Whisky. With those two overlooked I want to be on a possible improver at a nice price and to me its glaringly obvious. It has to be SMAD PLACE at 40-1. He was only beaten by the very well weighted Bourne at Ascot in a smart handicap hurdle last time and I think that form gives him a lively chance of stepping up to this level. No I donât think he will beat Big Bucks but I do think can finish in front of the others. 4.00 I am slightly bottling the Byrne by picking two. I like HECTORS CHOICE who has all the credentials to run well here. He jumps very well and is as genuine as they come. His second to Nacarat looks very good in the context of this race. My other choice is THE COCKNEY MACKEM who I think has just the kind of profile that NTD can spring a surprise with. I unashamedly will back both EW. 4.40 One topweight has already triumphed in a handicap this week and the Kim Muir could very well go to another. UP THE BEAT is very smart and is still open to bags of improvement. He may be carrying 11-12 but I actually think the handicapper has been quite lenient. He and Portrait King pulled some way clear at Punchestown, that looks very useful form. If he handles the quicker ground I think he will win. Good luck everyone!
Stick well done with top shout in the last hope you enjoy a bottle or two tonight really well done mate ROTO Son of Flicka get in
Cheers Si. Stan James Dayo! I cant get my head round this but Tote are going 9-4 Big Bucks to win by 5 lengths or more and 9-4 that he wins by less than 5 lengths, what odds does that equate to if you back both?
Stick I think Somersby has a cracking shout in the Ryanair - he beat the Champion Chaser over 2m1f and was running a massive race in the King George before failing to stay. I think he looks better than ever this season and the Ryanair looks wide open. I'm not sure Riverside Theatre is suited by Cheltenham - didn't look happy there in the Arkle a couple of years ago tbh.
Got an account with stan but never use as they stopped doing BOG and no +4/1 offers so use 365 all the time now - thanks anyway. 2 of last years winners couldn't retain the title fellas - can Big Bucks ???
if you had £40 on each you would get back £130 for laying out £80. profit of £50, risking £80, so would that make it 5/8?
I thought Riverside Drive wasnt a "Cheltenham horse" but if you watch that Arkle again OddDog you may see it differently. He was hopelessly outpaced 4 out but must have made up at least twenty lengths from the home bend. If it hadnt been Cheltenham you would have been screaming "non trier"!
cheers hawkeye, not the good value it looks at first glance then! I think I would be on the under 5 lengths!
1.30 Jewson Novice Chase - Peddler's Cross 7/2 2.05 Pertemps Final Hurdle - Kayf Aramis 40/1 EW 2.40 Ryanair Chase - Albertas Run 10/1 EW 3.20 World Hurdle - Big Buck (no bet) 4.00 Byrne Group Handicap Chase - Divers 11/2 4.40 Kim Muir Handicap Chase - Sona Sasta 22/1 EW As before, on the blog http://nassauboard.blogspot.com/
Not sure what it equates too Stick but Big Bucks doesn't win by too many lengths always just does enough for me to get his nose in front and finish first, all your shouts that have given me a return are going on him tomorrow, then hopefully lump on Kauto on Friday
no problem, stick. what do people think of for non stop? has become a favourite of mine, and is a nice price. and after today, this bet i done last year has given me a headache! £1.50 yankee boylesports bobs worth 12/1 hurricane fly 7/2 long run 3/1 big bucks 11/8 19/3/11
2:40 Cheltenham (Ryanair) - Noble Prince (Ireland have had very little luck so far but could well take this one...............)
Ordinarily I think that Thursday is the worst day of the festival but I have to say I think it looks pretty exciting tomorrow. The Ryanair and Jewson (whilst not a purists idea of a good trip) both look above average renewals in my opinion. On a personal note two horses I really like, For Non Stop (who I won big on at Newbury) and Champion Court (who was so impressive when making all at Cheltenham in Jan), run in the Jewson and I'd love it if one of them won. Just studying the card now, if there's anything that catches my eye then 'I'll be back'
Agree it is a better-than-usual Thursday tomorrow. I fancy Sir Des Champs in the Jewson and will make that my main bet. Will also have little bit on Medermit, who likes the course and could go well at a decent price. Cannot see Big Bucks getting beat.
Evening chaps A lousy day winner wise today, hoping for better tomorrow (Thursday) Well done ROTO in finding Son of Flicka - nice one I too like the look of Sir Deschamps in the Jewson, Riverside Theatre in the Ryanair and Salut Flo in the Byrne. I am also going to oppose BB - he has to get beaten some time, and shame though it will be when he does - might as well try to benefit financially eh? I liked So Young, who was well fancied last year for the Neptune, finishing 3rd behind First Leiutenant and Rock On Ruby - but with Townend choosing Thousand Stars, I have to assume the stable knows best. Stick has persuaded me about Smad Place's ew credentials, and I think I will go with that. Good luck all
