Morning, All data from 2010 to 2022 - Supreme Hurdle Pace Abrrev Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX EX Wins H 128 8 6.25 0.91 46.82 31.37 0.94 7.06 L 14 2 14.29 2.08 45.08 32.53 0.46 1.54 P 47 3 6.38 0.93 56.75 43.23 -1.49 4.49 Trainer Nationality Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX EX Wins 1 0 0 0 27.27 7.44 -0.03 0.03 1 0 0 0 28.57 8.16 -0.02 0.02 GB 110 7 6.36 0.93 47.22 33.11 1.01 5.99 IRE 77 6 7.79 1.13 52.48 36.94 -1.04 7.04 Headgear Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX EX Wins 157 13 8.28 1.2 52.24 37.27 1.38 11.62 b 1 0 0 0 16.67 2.78 -0.04 0.04 es 1 0 0 0 11.76 1.38 0 0 h 2 0 0 0 27.62 11.06 -0.05 0.05 h1 2 0 0 0 34.62 23.96 -0.07 0.07 ht 1 0 0 0 0 0 -0.02 0.02 hWS 1 0 0 0 33.33 11.11 -0.04 0.04 p 3 0 0 0 40.74 30.04 -0.12 0.12 p1 1 0 0 0 57.14 32.65 -0.06 0.06 t 10 0 0 0 33.63 18.43 -0.63 0.63 t1 7 0 0 0 49.29 35.47 -0.31 0.31 WS 2 0 0 0 21.43 5.1 -0.12 0.12 WS2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SP Rank Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX EX Wins 1 17 4 23.53 3.42 75.4 63.87 -0.8 4.8 2 10 2 20 2.93 77.09 67.98 0.37 1.63 3 15 4 26.67 3.93 75.76 64.72 2.46 1.54 4 13 1 7.69 1.12 60.67 46.1 -0.17 1.17 5 12 0 0 0 52.76 39.18 -0.9 0.9 6 11 1 9.09 1.29 60.39 42.42 0.4 0.6 7 15 0 0 0 34.11 20.97 -0.66 0.66 8 17 0 0 0 45.33 26.01 -0.62 0.62 9 11 0 0 0 43.14 24.49 -0.29 0.29 10 12 1 8.33 1.28 40.08 23.08 0.69 0.31 11 11 0 0 0 33.57 19.41 -0.12 0.12 12 12 0 0 0 38.52 20.67 -0.18 0.18 13 10 0 0 0 44.43 26.51 -0.15 0.15 14 3 0 0 0 17.95 4.93 -0.02 0.02 15 5 0 0 0 34.78 20.01 -0.04 0.04 16 8 0 0 0 12.51 3.04 -0.04 0.04 17 1 0 0 0 22.22 4.94 0 0 18 5 0 0 0 29.35 11.11 -0.01 0.01 19 1 0 0 0 5.56 0.31 0 0 Age Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX EX Wins 4 3 0 0 0 47.3 27.76 -0.2 0.2 5 88 6 6.82 0.99 51.05 35.74 0.43 5.57 6 79 6 7.59 1.1 49.27 34.84 0.26 5.74 7 14 1 7.14 1 43.18 30.44 -0.48 1.48 8 4 0 0 0 22.33 11.4 -0.09 0.09 9 1 0 0 0 70.59 49.83 -0.01 0.01
Arkle Pace Ab Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX H 63 3 4.76 0.42 45.46 31.33 -1.39 L 16 2 12.5 1.11 43.81 31.79 -0.35 P 36 8 22.22 1.97 54.48 42.98 1.77 Trainer Nationality Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX GB 70 7 10 0.88 44.75 31.84 -0.19 IRE 45 6 13.33 1.18 53.19 40.02 0.21 Headgear Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 75 11 14.67 1.3 50.67 37.75 0.52 b1 2 0 0 0 50 27.78 -0.04 h 5 0 0 0 34.92 20.83 -0.47 h1 1 1 100 9 100 100 0.98 htWS 1 0 0 0 25 6.25 -0.15 p1 2 0 0 0 57.58 39.03 -0.06 t 17 1 5.88 0.55 47.94 33.37 -0.15 t1 2 0 0 0 82.5 68.63 -0.05 tp1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -0.02 tWS 2 0 0 0 20 8 -0.09 tWS2 1 0 0 0 36.36 13.22 -0.01 tWS3 1 0 0 0 80 64 -0.08 WS 3 0 0 0 0 0 -0.18 WS1 1 0 0 0 75 56.25 -0.05 WS3 1 0 0 0 0 0 -0.12 SP Rank Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 1 14 8 57.14 5.05 82.93 74.01 1.81 2 12 0 0 0 50.19 35.02 -1.96 3 14 2 14.29 1.26 45.81 37.06 0.31 4 13 1 7.69 0.67 54 35.65 -0.04 5 14 0 0 0 37.57 23.88 -0.78 6 11 0 0 0 36.01 19.79 -0.46 7 14 1 7.14 0.7 44.59 29.59 0.53 8 4 1 25 2.5 58.61 50.19 0.91 9 9 0 0 0 39.75 28.82 -0.18 10 6 0 0 0 36.25 23.94 -0.09 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 -0.01 12 2 0 0 0 31.82 10.33 -0.02 Age Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 5 8 0 0 0 43.33 25.99 -1.05 6 32 6 18.75 1.66 54.52 41.35 2.27 7 50 5 10 0.88 47.94 35.44 -1.34 8 16 2 12.5 1.25 41.81 32.47 0.91 9 8 0 0 0 46.16 25.82 -0.75 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 -0.01
Ultima Pace Abrrev Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX H 157 5 3.18 0.69 39.71 27.78 -1.79 L 13 0 0 0 51 37.34 -0.44 P 48 5 10.42 2.27 58.5 47.54 2.11 Trainer Nationality Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 1 0 0 0 73.91 54.63 -0.08 GB 191 10 5.24 1.14 42.81 31.44 1.41 IRE 26 0 0 0 56 41.1 -1.44 Headgear Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 90 1 1.11 0.24 46.59 32.68 -3.83 b 3 0 0 0 31.82 30.37 -0.17 b1 3 0 0 0 0 0 -0.03 b1WS3 1 0 0 0 52.17 27.22 -0.01 bWS 2 0 0 0 0 0 -0.05 bWS3 1 1 100 24 100 100 0.93 h 5 0 0 0 43.95 34.49 -0.4 hp 1 0 0 0 40.91 16.74 -0.02 ht 2 0 0 0 0 0 -0.1 p 25 2 8 1.8 51.36 37.78 0.93 p1 10 1 10 2.18 51.97 41.05 0.54 p1WS1 1 0 0 0 86.96 75.61 -0.06 p1WS2 1 1 100 16 100 100 0.98 pWS 4 0 0 0 20.65 17.06 -0.09 pWS2 2 0 0 0 25 12.5 -0.03 t 23 1 4.35 0.97 41.02 29.93 0.15 t1 4 0 0 0 10.87 4.73 -0.16 t1WS1 1 0 0 0 90.91 82.64 -0.16 tb 6 2 33.33 7.75 63.24 51.44 1.71 tb1 1 0 0 0 68.18 46.49 -0.04 tp 7 1 14.29 3.37 36.65 26.52 0.75 tp1WS 1 0 0 0 69.57 48.39 -0.02 tpWS 4 0 0 0 44.77 32.66 -0.09 tpWS3 1 0 0 0 0 0 -0.04 tv1 1 0 0 0 94.12 88.58 -0.06 tWS 4 0 0 0 50.29 36.79 -0.16 tWS1 1 0 0 0 46.67 21.78 -0.12 tWS2 1 0 0 0 86.36 74.59 -0.14 tWS3 1 0 0 0 0 0 -0.01 v 1 0 0 0 0 0 -0.06 v1 2 0 0 0 36.11 26.08 -0.07 vWS 1 0 0 0 82.61 68.24 -0.03 WS 4 0 0 0 27.05 15.62 -0.09 WS1 3 0 0 0 53.1 44 -0.07 SP Rank Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 1 14 1 7.14 1.56 67.94 55.94 -0.73 2 9 1 11.11 2.41 71.44 60.03 0.05 3 9 2 22.22 4.89 82.4 70.07 1.15 4 11 0 0 0 55.8 45.43 -0.84 5 12 3 25 5.29 58.78 46.87 2.17 6 10 0 0 0 41.07 26.36 -0.63 7 15 1 6.67 1.43 37.55 26.96 0.2 8 9 0 0 0 62.53 46.78 -0.48 9 4 0 0 0 42.04 28.12 -0.17 10 13 0 0 0 42.71 31.32 -0.53 11 8 1 12.5 2.71 59.53 44.07 0.69 12 11 0 0 0 30.06 19.62 -0.36 13 15 0 0 0 51.24 37.92 -0.41 14 4 0 0 0 13.7 4.02 -0.11 15 17 0 0 0 34.6 22.41 -0.35 16 6 1 16.67 3.53 38.41 32.42 0.87 17 12 0 0 0 34.69 24.96 -0.2 18 10 0 0 0 26.71 15.18 -0.15 19 1 0 0 0 27.78 7.72 0 20 8 0 0 0 13.59 7.4 -0.1 21 4 0 0 0 22.43 11.83 -0.05 22 8 0 0 0 22.83 9.41 -0.08 23 7 0 0 0 26.4 13.16 -0.04 24 1 0 0 0 65.22 42.53 -0.01 Age Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 6 14 1 7.14 1.57 45.65 34.49 0.12 7 46 1 2.17 0.47 52.32 39.68 -1.9 8 67 5 7.46 1.63 46.23 33.8 1.92 9 49 2 4.08 0.89 40.44 30.63 0.07 10 27 0 0 0 40.36 26.43 -0.97 11 11 1 9.09 1.97 38.58 28.94 0.69 12 3 0 0 0 22.22 7.61 -0.03 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 -0.02
Champion Hurdle Pace Abrrev Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX H 87 9 10.34 1.11 46.17 32.32 2.21 L 14 2 14.29 1.54 61.48 48.54 0.35 P 39 2 5.13 0.55 51.96 35.87 -2.66 Trainer Nationality Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX GB 82 5 6.1 0.66 45.19 30.19 -1.31 IRE 58 8 13.79 1.49 55.14 41.64 1.21 Headgear Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 99 11 11.11 1.2 48.48 34.02 0.9 b 1 0 0 0 40 16 -0.04 b1 1 0 0 0 18.75 3.52 0 h 6 0 0 0 72.71 57.59 -0.37 h1 1 1 100 9 100 100 0.91 ht 1 0 0 0 80 64 -0.02 p 5 0 0 0 52.45 32.77 -0.57 p1 3 0 0 0 57.41 38.37 -0.22 pWS3 1 0 0 0 0 0 -0.01 t 11 1 9.09 1.01 48.97 37.8 0.14 t1 2 0 0 0 33.33 22.22 -0.08 t1WS1 1 0 0 0 12.5 1.56 -0.06 t1WS3 1 0 0 0 22.22 4.94 -0.02 tb 1 0 0 0 11.11 1.23 -0.01 tb1 2 0 0 0 80.11 64.73 -0.25 tp1 1 0 0 0 77.78 60.49 -0.04 tWS 1 0 0 0 55.56 30.86 0 WS 1 0 0 0 0 0 -0.24 WS1 1 0 0 0 50 25 -0.08 SP Rank Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 1 13 8 61.54 6.63 80.22 72.2 3.08 2 13 1 7.69 0.83 65.83 46.47 -1.41 3 14 0 0 0 63.6 50.45 -1.83 4 13 2 15.38 1.64 52.87 40.6 0.9 5 16 1 6.25 0.64 49.94 37.22 0.02 6 11 0 0 0 37.15 23.54 -0.5 7 15 1 6.67 0.73 33.08 20.21 0.4 8 12 0 0 0 47.61 30.54 -0.3 9 12 0 0 0 43.94 22.87 -0.24 10 8 0 0 0 38.61 22.03 -0.07 11 5 0 0 0 20.36 7.18 -0.07 12 3 0 0 0 40.15 23.43 -0.03 13 2 0 0 0 0 0 -0.03 15 1 0 0 0 43.75 19.14 -0.01 16 2 0 0 0 25 6.64 -0.01 Age Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 5 31 1 3.23 0.35 36.24 21.4 -0.42 6 32 4 12.5 1.36 51.56 39.48 0.85 7 33 5 15.15 1.65 54.57 38.77 0.94 8 27 2 7.41 0.81 48.65 37.32 -1.07 9 9 1 11.11 1.29 60.86 42.49 0.26 10 5 0 0 0 61.89 40.78 -0.57 11 2 0 0 0 54.46 32.54 -0.08 13 1 0 0 0 50 25 -0.01
Mares Pace Abrrev Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX H 120 11 9.17 1.34 50.32 36.56 3.08 L 14 0 0 0 43.78 29.09 -1.34 P 56 2 3.57 0.52 48.16 31.21 -1.76 Trainer Nationality Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX FR 3 0 0 0 44.81 35.07 -0.09 GB 120 2 1.67 0.24 44.51 28.01 -1.32 IRE 67 11 16.42 2.4 57.8 45.91 1.39 Headgear Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 128 10 7.81 1.14 51.58 37.18 -0.72 b 2 0 0 0 37.95 24.19 -0.01 b1 3 0 0 0 38.62 23.59 -0.07 h 5 0 0 0 37.82 23.82 -0.1 ht 1 0 0 0 63.64 40.5 -0.1 p 14 1 7.14 1.02 42.95 25.37 0.65 p1 2 0 0 0 39.29 15.56 -0.01 pWS1 1 0 0 0 55.56 30.86 -0.02 pWS3 1 0 0 0 36.36 13.22 0 t 25 0 0 0 40.81 25.68 -1.27 t1 3 1 33.33 6 94.44 89.4 0.74 t1b 1 0 0 0 21.43 4.59 0 tWS 1 1 100 12 100 100 0.96 tWS3 1 0 0 0 38.46 14.79 -0.03 WS 1 0 0 0 0 0 -0.02 WS1 1 0 0 0 66.67 44.44 -0.01 SP Rank Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 1 13 6 46.15 6.75 77.82 72.41 -0.47 2 15 3 20 2.92 76.45 65.27 0.56 3 13 2 15.38 2.22 44.67 31.67 0.74 4 12 1 8.33 1.19 49.31 35.4 0.23 5 19 0 0 0 49.57 33.44 -0.73 6 12 0 0 0 59.75 44.21 -0.34 7 12 0 0 0 41.61 22.95 -0.24 8 13 1 7.69 1.14 51.72 31.3 0.81 9 18 0 0 0 51.4 32.65 -0.3 10 5 0 0 0 37.44 26.13 -0.04 11 17 0 0 0 47.67 29.74 -0.12 12 9 0 0 0 35.94 19.64 -0.04 13 6 0 0 0 30.79 19.06 -0.04 14 8 0 0 0 45.99 32.55 -0.03 15 5 0 0 0 43.33 23.64 -0.01 16 4 0 0 0 9.48 1.38 0 17 4 0 0 0 23.61 8.41 -0.01 18 2 0 0 0 5.56 0.31 0 19 3 0 0 0 9.26 1.34 0 Age Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 4 1 0 0 0 37.5 14.06 -0.09 5 19 1 5.26 0.82 43.79 30.84 0.18 6 53 2 3.77 0.55 48.71 32.36 -1.56 7 59 7 11.86 1.73 53.02 37.98 2.83 8 38 1 2.63 0.39 46.71 33.65 -1.23 9 15 1 6.67 0.94 52.93 36.93 -0.57 10 4 1 25 3.5 50 38.48 0.42 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Fred Winter Pace Abrrev Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 H 195 11 5.64 1.27 52.67 37.76 1.97 L 14 0 0 0 34.79 23.15 -0.91 P 82 2 2.44 0.55 43.46 27.12 -1.12 Trainer Nationality Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 2 0 0 0 63.04 47.73 -0.04 2 0 0 0 0 0 -0.01 FR 1 0 0 0 28.57 8.16 -0.02 GB 197 6 3.05 0.68 48.46 33.2 -2.52 IRE 90 7 7.78 1.75 51.35 36.3 2.53 Headgear Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 170 9 5.29 1.19 50.01 35.3 0.71 b 11 0 0 0 52.21 31.67 -0.42 b1 4 1 25 5.69 63.55 50.58 0.85 h 14 0 0 0 43.05 28.7 -0.66 h1 5 0 0 0 53.5 47.92 -0.35 h1b1 1 0 0 0 39.13 15.31 -0.02 h1t 1 0 0 0 90.48 81.86 -0.02 h1tWS1 1 0 0 0 57.14 32.65 -0.09 ht 3 0 0 0 75.4 60.41 -0.16 ht1 1 0 0 0 95.24 90.7 -0.05 htWS2 1 0 0 0 47.62 22.68 -0.01 hWS 1 0 0 0 47.62 22.68 -0.07 p 9 2 22.22 5.11 49.23 36.41 1.78 p1 8 0 0 0 39.81 23.95 -0.53 t 19 0 0 0 41.13 26.26 -0.7 t1 18 1 5.56 1.24 44.33 26.43 0.25 t1p1 2 0 0 0 40.48 17.8 -0.02 tb 2 0 0 0 42.86 29.48 -0.02 tb1WS1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -0.02 tp 2 0 0 0 26.74 9.95 -0.02 tp1 1 0 0 0 5 0.25 -0.03 tWS1 2 0 0 0 65.79 46.68 -0.05 tWS2 2 0 0 0 76.19 60.09 -0.02 v 4 0 0 0 57.52 36.45 -0.08 v1 6 0 0 0 36.67 23.42 -0.16 WS 2 0 0 0 69.67 48.97 -0.08 WS1 1 0 0 0 80 64 -0.05 SP Rank Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 1 15 2 13.33 2.99 63.45 54.75 -0.45 2 13 1 7.69 1.72 62.08 48.51 -0.34 3 13 1 7.69 1.73 44.92 30.06 -0.24 4 12 1 8.33 1.88 59 45.24 0.04 5 16 1 6.25 1.4 54.86 39.81 -0.02 6 20 0 0 0 47.58 32.4 -1.14 7 14 0 0 0 56.41 42.42 -0.68 8 7 0 0 0 45.77 30.95 -0.32 9 19 0 0 0 53.42 37.88 -0.76 10 13 0 0 0 49.34 30.92 -0.5 11 9 0 0 0 50.99 31.48 -0.31 12 15 0 0 0 52.6 38.79 -0.47 13 18 0 0 0 51.7 34.01 -0.47 14 9 0 0 0 44.38 27.71 -0.26 15 11 3 27.27 6.22 52.48 41.54 2.73 16 8 0 0 0 20.23 7.75 -0.11 17 19 1 5.26 1.19 46.85 28.7 0.74 18 24 2 8.33 1.85 43.08 27.83 1.74 19 1 1 100 22 100 100 0.99 20 10 0 0 0 47.37 31.9 -0.1 21 13 0 0 0 41.81 23.33 -0.09 22 6 0 0 0 17.49 6.61 -0.02 23 6 0 0 0 28.26 11.44 -0.03 24 1 0 0 0 43.48 18.9 0
NH Chase Pace Abrrev Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX H 116 9 7.76 1.25 38.56 30.04 1.59 L 15 0 0 0 48.97 39.03 -1.09 P 46 2 4.35 0.7 35.01 26.66 -0.49 Trainer Nationality Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 1 0 0 0 0 0 -0.02 GB 122 5 4.1 0.66 35.8 26.75 -0.53 IRE 54 6 11.11 1.79 45.39 37.64 0.56 Headgear Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 89 7 7.87 1.27 45.43 35.88 0.65 b 10 0 0 0 47.7 28.42 -0.69 b1 6 0 0 0 15 6.83 -0.14 h 4 0 0 0 36.4 26.69 -0.17 h1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -0.01 h1tWS 1 0 0 0 0 0 -0.01 p 26 0 0 0 20.02 14.21 -1 p1 4 0 0 0 65.63 58.16 -0.18 pWS 1 0 0 0 0 0 -0.02 pWS2 1 0 0 0 0 0 -0.01 t 15 2 13.33 2.08 36.8 30.5 0.77 t1 2 0 0 0 30.77 18.93 -0.25 t1p 2 0 0 0 0 0 -0.13 t1p1 1 0 0 0 64.29 41.33 -0.18 tb 4 1 25 4.5 69.03 63.93 0.82 tb1 1 0 0 0 56.25 31.64 -0.06 tp 3 1 33.33 5.5 33.33 33.33 0.91 tpWS 1 0 0 0 92.31 85.21 -0.12 tv 1 0 0 0 0 0 -0.02 tWS 2 0 0 0 0 0 -0.02 WS 2 0 0 0 38.46 29.59 -0.11 SP Rank Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 1 11 2 18.18 2.93 54.89 44.49 -0.43 2 11 2 18.18 2.93 72.16 64.72 0.21 3 12 1 8.33 1.34 55.16 46.98 -0.61 4 14 2 14.29 2.24 49.88 42.23 0.8 5 8 2 25 3.97 46.55 43.57 1.4 6 14 0 0 0 58.16 41.81 -0.85 7 12 1 8.33 1.39 40.79 31.11 0.46 8 9 0 0 0 23.81 13.24 -0.45 9 7 1 14.29 2.4 52.19 41.69 0.71 10 12 0 0 0 33.76 24.07 -0.36 11 15 0 0 0 26.39 18.05 -0.4 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 -0.06 13 7 0 0 0 21.43 11.16 -0.11 14 16 0 0 0 27.89 20.09 -0.15 15 8 0 0 0 9.74 3.94 -0.06 16 4 0 0 0 28.04 15.76 -0.03 17 6 0 0 0 22.55 16.67 -0.04 18 2 0 0 0 41.18 33.91 -0.01 19 3 0 0 0 0 0 -0.01 Age Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 5 1 0 0 0 52.94 28.03 -0.03 6 18 1 5.56 0.97 49.82 37.61 -0.67 7 83 5 6.02 0.97 39.33 31.29 -0.38 8 50 2 4 0.64 35.08 25.75 -0.77 9 17 1 5.88 1.01 22.47 18.32 0.28 10 7 2 28.57 4.71 66.91 56.54 1.58 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
I think I get it. In the NH Chase you want a hold up horse, trained in Ireland, not wearing any headgear, in the first five in the betting and is seven years old. Or as Gaz would say “back the favourite “
Yep, just the three L = Lead P = Prominent H = Held Up It normally works out as 1 or 2 L 1/3 field P Rest H Which is why I don't bother looking at the strike rate for these, rather I am looking at the WAX score (Winners against eXpectations)
Funnily enough this is probably the one race that has changed the most over the last decade and whether looking back is a good way of approaching this race is probably a pertinent talking point. It has become more akin to a second season novice National trial, rather than the old sluggerthon of old with the amateurs going too fast.
Would you 'lay' Constitution Hill based on the stat that no horse has won the Champion Hurdle, after winning the Supreme Novices' Hurdle the year before, since Bula in 1971 (that stat did 'down' the 2nd fave in the race last term). I won't drone on and on about this (have done in the past I know) but the Ultima does contain within one of my fave stats of the year - 9 of the last 11 winners, of the contest, wore some form of headgear. Other notes / stats, I've got, for day 1 (a.k.a the opening day) are - - 18 out of the last 20 winners of the Supreme Novices Hurdle were aged 5 or 6. 23 out of the last 26 winners, of the race, won last time out. - Every one of the last 13 winners, of the Arkle, arrived at the Cheltenham Festival on the back of a win. - Not since 1981 (Sea Pigeon) has a horse won the Champion Hurdle without a prep run post Christmas. - Eight of the last nine winners, of the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, have carried at least 11 stone. - There has been no winning favourite, of the National Hunt Chase, since 2013.
Systems (I will endevour to post qualifiers on the day or earlier) Supreme Novice Age 5 or 6 No headgear Tissue price < 8/1 Proform MR last three runs rating of >69 (System has had 4 winners from 11 runners) Arkle Chase Age 6 or 7 Tissue Price <5/1 Won LTO No Headgear (6 winners from 11 runners) Ultima Handicap Under 10 years age Any headgear More than 3 runs in last year LTO SP Rank < 3 (5 winners from 28) Champion Hurdle SP Rank 1 (8 winners from 13) Mares Age 6 or 7 Held Up Last Time Out Trainer rank <4 Proform MR last three runs rating of >69 (3 winners from 5) Fred Winter Horse bred in Ireland SP Rank last time out >3 (6 winners from 59) NH Chase No Headgear SP Rank <4 (6 winners from 25 runners)
Might just be a coincidence but JP McManus has won 2 of the last 3 Fred Winters - is that perhaps a sign he is aiming a better class of horse at the race? Band Of Outlaws and Brazil were both flat recruits and both "somehow" Ballydoyle owned (I think BoO was half owned by Aiden's wife) Cougar and Sundial fit that pattern in this year's race - both trained by Padraig Roche who trained Brazil to win the race last year.
He purchased BOO after it won the Fred Winter, but he won it with Aramix. It is also noticeable that both Aramix and Brazil were towards the top of the handicap, which would be a good sign for Tekao or Common Practice (latter if the top weights came out)
Here's a few more from me (in addition to the above) re day 1. - There hasn't been an Irish trained winner, of the Ultima, since 2006 - 0/35 since. 10YOs are 0/30 in the Ultima Handicap Chase since 2011. Venetia Williams is 0/17, in the race, since 2009. The favourite has won just 1 of the last 13 runnings of the Ultima Handicap Chase. - 9 out of the last 10 winners, of the Champion Hurdle, won last time out. 15 of the last 16 winners, of the race, had had no more than 13 starts over hurdles. - 8YOs are 0/32, in the Mares Hurdle, since 2013. - The favourite has won just 1 of the last 12 runnings of the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. Willie Mullins is 0/15, in the race, since 2009. 3 out of the last 4 winners, of the race, won the Naas Rated Novice Hurdle ran in early/mid-February. To date there has been just one British-bred winner of the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (first run 2005). I guess the skill / luck (delete as appropriate) element is now predicting which stats and trends will fall by the wayside, in '23, and which will remain.
