Cheltenham - 9/10th December - Weekend Preview

The first big race is the International Hurdle, a recognised trial for the Champion in March and won last year by Menorah. He returns to defend his crown after his fledgling chasing career was put on hold following his unseat of Richard Johnson at Exeter.

It is worth noting the weights: Marsh Warbler, Menorah and Overturn (11-8), Brampour, Clerk's Choice, Grandouet and Sanctuaire (11-4) and Abergavenny, Pittoni and Stormy Weather (11-00).

They bet:

Grandouet - 3/1
Menorah - 4/1
Overturn - 4/1
Brampour - 9/2
Pittoni - 11/1
Clerks Choice - 16/1
Sanctuaire - 25/1
Abergavenny - 40/1
Marsh Warbler - 50/1
Stormy Weather - 500/1

It definitely looks an open race but one over which I don't have a particularly strong opinion, though if Overturn were to run here then 4/1 would be a very big price. I thought connections had lined up a break before bringing him back for the Champion Hurdle in the spring but it will be interesting if they try for the big race hatrick in this.

Grandouet has looked very good but the suspicion is that he will prove best round a flat track. Henderson has specifically chosen this race to see whether he is up to the top level round Cheltenham with the Champion in mind. It will be interesting to see how he fares.

Menorah returns to hurdles after unseating on his chase debut. He won this race last year but that now looks a pretty weak renewal (in Champion Hurdle terms) with Silviniaco Conti looking like an RSA candidate and Cue Card unplaced in the Supreme and looking like a 2m4f+ horse over fences. Nevertheless he did win it well but appeared exposed against the very best when 5th in the Champion and 4th at Punchestown. He is rated 164 and should run up to that level but if he were to win I think the conclusion would be that none of these are potential Champion Hurdlers.

Brampour has won two competitive handicaps this season including the Greatwood. Menorah took the Greatwood before winning this event 12 months ago and there is no doubt that this is another improving sort. He had the benefit of a wind operation over the summer and has proved a revelation since, jumping up the handicap by 20lbs. He is a bit of an unknown quantity given the way he is improving and he is another who is interesting. I'm not sure I could back him because I just have a lingering doubt whether he is up to the top level.

Pittoni brings a bit of Irish form to the table and he would be an interesting runner if he took his chance. He was put in his place in no uncertain terms by Thousand Stars last time and that formline should give a good guide to where a lot of the British challengers stand in relation to the Irish team. He is in receipt of a bit of weight from some of the leading contenders and that might enable him to challenge.

Clerk's Choice was 4th 12 months ago and there doesn't appear any obvious reason why he should be able to win this time around.

Sanctuaire is a bit of an enigma and his chances would improve considerably if Ruby Walsh were to take the ride (Will Harry Derham keep the ride on Brampour?) as he has yet to win for anybody else (3/6 with Walsh and 0/5 without). He definitely has ability but has more than his fair share of quirkiness to go with it. If he can settle in the early stages then he has the ability to outrun his price.

Abergavenny ran a cracker when 3rd in the Greatwood but that was off a mark of 130 and a whole lot more is required in this.

Marsh Warbler won in soft ground at Chepstow last Christmas but was well beaten in the Triumph and comfortably beaten by Grandouet last time. Very hard to see him reversing the form with that rival.

Stormy Weather has a career best hurdles rating of 125 but an effort significantly superior to that will be required to feature in this.

 

If Granduoet's more than a flat track bully he should win this. It's a big IF though! Can't see the winner of this race having much of a say come March time but it's a tidy race nonetheless. Really think Edward O'Grady missed a trick in not running The Real Article here rather than in the Hattons Grace over too far a trip and too heavy ground. If he'd have been mine I'd a been lining him up here instead....

 

Good article Zen.

Tbh,I wouldn't touch this with a barge pole and could see it cutting up really badly.

If someone put a gun to my head,and was decent enough to let me answer before filling me full of lead,I would express an interest in Clerks Choice e.w. at 16's.

He has changed stables and been targeted at this contest from quite some time ago...however,without the dead eight runners,or better,required for a third place pay out,I'll skip the race and watch Gossip Girls,which I will have sky+'ed from ITV2 earlier.

 

I thought 4/1 Menorah frankly looked massive.

I laid him on chase debut but have to hold my hands up and admit that he had cantered all over Sam Winner before unseating.

Surely he lays down a pretty big challenge to this field here?

 

I agree topclass, MENORAH all the way for me

 

Going on official ratings then the result would be a dead-heat for 1st place between Overturn and Grandouet! My choice for the heat would be the latter as he looked ultra impressive last time out (you could ask what did he beat but the way Mr Henderson's charge travelled was a joy to behold and he barely came out of 2nd gear as he romped clear).

Agree that this is the acid test re him and Cheltenham a course that Mr Henderson has voiced concerns re him in the past. Grandouet is 0/2 at the Gloucestershire venue but it should be remembered that both were top class heats - especially the latter where he was only beaten 5 lengths in the Triumph.

I think Grandouet in receipt of weight off both Menorah and Overturn should have enough. The former, in my opinion, would be Grandouet's main rival.

Meanwhile, it’s nice to see that Mr Nicholls is to remain loyal to Harry Derham and is letting him retain the ride on Brampour. A top reward following the lad’s fine efforts on this horse so far this term. Doubt if the Ruby boy is that enamoured though as he’s on Sanctuaire now!

 

As ever with Cheltenham there are two top days sport in prospect, not least the highly competitive Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 Gold Cup.

Friday

12.00 2m5f Novice Chase - Mossley and Sam Winner look like taking their chances in this and both have something to prove after less than perfect fencing debuts. Mossley won but his jumping left a little to be desired whilst Sam Winner looked to be about to benefit from Menorah unseating when coming to grief at the last. He jumped markedly left handed on that occasion and will need to have improved in that department to figure here. I would expect Champion Court to run in the 3m race and Gift Of Dgab must be a doubt after running at Plumpton on Monday. Henderson also has Solix entered but Geraghty is down to ride Mossley so I can only assume that is who they are running. Traffic Article is going in the right direction for Gordon Elliott and has plenty of experience to his name. Doubtful whether he is quite good enough to figure here. This looks, at this stage, to be between Mossley and Sam Winner, and whilst both have question marks preference might just be for Sam Winner who looks to be more suited by the trip. Mossley has shown his best form over 3m but the step up to 2m5f looks set to suit Sam Winner, who has always been held in high regard by connections.

1.45 3m Handicap Chase - Mon Parrain looks set to take his first step on the ladder to rebuilding his shattered reputation. He looked a shadow of the horse that was so impressive last season in the Paddy Power and it is interesting that he is asked to run at Cheltenham again. Ruby felt it was the trip that got him beat so the step up to 3m looks set to suit. I would still be of the opinion that he is a relatively well handicapped horse and might be worth another chance. The obvious danger is Planet Of Sound, a valiant 2nd in the Hennessy but he has never taken too much racing and that huge effort was just 2 weeks ago. Shakalakaboomboom won at Punchestown last time but has been put up as a result and may need a career best first time up. A lot depends on the prices but if the price was right I'd be willing to give Mon Parrain another chance.

2.20 3m7f XC Handicap Chase - Garde Champetre is a standing dish over these fences but Uncle Junior was too strong at the Paddy Power meeting and is no better off at the weights. They both might have to give best with Scotsirish looking a natural last time at Punchestown. He is a decent horse over regulation fences and his 2m pace will stand him in good stead. He has stamina to prove but the likely quick ground and sedate early pace will give him every chance of seeing out the trip.

2.55 3m Handicap Hurdle - No idea who turns up but I do know that Our Father is expected to prove far better than his current mark. He was running over shorter in novice races last year but is thrown in straight at 3m first time in a handicap for a decent prize. He is sure to be well supported and will be a threat to all in this. Oscargo looks a similar type for Paul Nicholls. Without the confirmed field and prices it is difficult to put forward anything with great confidence.

3.30 2m1f Novice Hurdle - Henderson seems to hold the trump cards with Ericht and Darlan. Whichever turns up must be respected, in particular Ericht who held every chance over course and distance at the last before finding Steps To Freedom and Prospect Wells too strong. Both of those feature prominently in the Supreme market and he would be expected to make up for that defeat if allowed to take his chance.

 

Saturday

12.10 2m Juvenile Hurdle - Hinterland looked very good at the Paddy Power meeting and the form has been boosted to a certain extent by the 2nd Hollow Tree winning in facile fashion since. It would be disappointing and surprising if a penalty could stop him following up. Sure to be a warm order but I was thoroughly impressed with his first effort and this looks easier.

12.45 3m Novice Chase - Some very good entries for this including Champion Court who has 3 runs under his belt already. A winner at Aintree and then only beaten 9 lengths by Grand Crus under a penalty at the last meeting. He looks a proper chasing type and the step up to 3m should suit. Join Together won over 3m at the last meeting under an excellent ride from Ruby Walsh. He jumped well in the main, bar one bad error entering the back straight. However he might just lack the class of Champion Court and is viewed as a National Hunt Chase prospect rather than the RSA. Ground will be lively enough for him too so Champion Court is preferred.

1.20 2m Handicap Chase - Tanks For That will likely prove popular if taking up this engagement after a convincing course and distance success last time. He's been raised 9lbs for that which doesn't look insurmountable but I fancy that he might just find on or two too good here. He ran really well first time up last year before disappointing later in the season and might fall the same way this time around too. The same sentiments apply to Dave's Dream who was disappointing in the Paddy Power but has always run best when fresh. Havingotascoobydo was 2nd behind Tanks For That and receives only a 4lb pull at the weights. However, he looks to be going in the right direction and would be dangerous if lining up. Temple Lord is another with good form figures but he receives only 8lb from Havingotascoobydo but was beaten a very easy 16l when they met back in October at level weights. Unless he has improved dramatically it is hard to see the form being reversed. Another worthy of respect is Astracad who is pitched into handicap company after chasing home Al Ferof last time. He has jumped well in the main and would be a poignant winner for the famous Mould colours. That said I suspect he might just get outpaced over 2m here.

1.55 3m G2 Novice Hurdle - A very decent race with a lot of smart prospects currently engaged, including Tom George's French G1 winner Halley. A difficult race to weight up with any amount of improvement possibly in the offing from a number of runners. A race to watch for Festival clues but not a betting heat for me.

2.30 2m5f G3 Handicap Chase - A very competitive renewal of this race which sees the 1-2-3 from the Paddy Power reoppose. The winner that day was Great Endeavour and he would have an outstanding chance of following up if his fitness could be assured. However, this will be his 3rd competitive handicap inside a month and that is a big ask. Looked best at the weights before failing to stay in the Hennessy and a big chance if on top form once more. Quantitativeeasing was 2nd that day and is favourite to go one better this time. He looks progressive and is still unexposed and it is easy to see why he is well fancied. Divers is another going the right way, bar an appalling effort at Carlisle earlier in the year. My impression with him is that the Paddy Power was his big target so I suspect he'll find a few in front once more. Ghizao is the primary hope for Paul Nicholls, and the ride of Ruby Walsh, and for those reasons alone is worthy of respect. He ran a stinker in the Haldon Gold Cup and his one try at this trip (over hurdles) he weakened like he'd been shot. Nicholls also has top weight Woolcombe Folly but I feel the jury is out on this on after a really poor run at Cheltenham last time. This is a big ask off top weight. Medermit won the Haldon Gold Cup, somewhat fortuitously after the last fence departure of Captain Chris. He has since found Master Minded and Somersby too good and he takes in this race rather than the Peterborough Chase on Thursday. Alan King states that he likes the undulations at Cheltenham but he is 0/6 at the track. I think he has a biggish task at the weights though is the type to run well. Sunnyhillboy is a name that keeps cropping up in these big handicaps and he seems sure to win one, the question is when. He was 3rd in this last year and is just 3lbs higher this time. He has had a spin over hurdles when running well enough behind Dynaste at Haydock which should put him spot on. Quel Esprit is an interesting contender for Willie Mullins if he takes his chance. The fact that Ruby is already committed to Ghizao tells me either that he won't run or that he prefers Ghizao and that will do for me. I think he is probably better than his mark though. Roudoudou Village has shown progressive form and has risen up the weights sharply as a result. This is a much tougher assignment and he has still to prove that he is up to the required level. The Pipe team, as well as Great Endeavour, also have the unexposed Salut Flo, the thoroughly exposed I'msingingtheblues and the middle man Matuhi. Matuhi has a good record first time out but did disappoint in this race last year. Not without a chance mind. I'msingingtheblues looks exposed and has been busy of late. Salut Flo is something of an unknown quantity having not run since April 2010. He has only run twice in this country and looks capable of better. If he is fit and jumps round then he would have a chance. I will reserve my final call until the final field is known, but there are any number with chances.

3.05 2m G2 Hurdle - See separate thread.

3.35 2m4f G2 Hurdle - A really smart race with Oscar Whisky heading the line-up. If he has either Champion or World Hurdle pretensions then he must surely be winning this. Chief among the opposition are the tough campaigner Any Given Day for Donald McCain and the fast improving Dynaste for David Pipe. The former is tough and consistent but it is hard to see him overturning Cheltenham form with the likely favourite. Dynaste is clearly going the right way but more is needed once again. The stable pulled of a similar feat with Grand Crus last year and he will need to be nearly as good to win this. The Knoxs won a handicap last time first time for Paul Nicholls, having fallen over fences a couple of times for Howard Johnson. He won that handicap well enough but a mark of 150 (up 18lbs) looks on the high side and yet still more is needed to take this. Oscar Whisky looks a worthy and very solid favourite with everything in his favour.

 

I agree it will be a battle of Menorah and Overturn, this will surely be his last run before a break. I was there at ascot the day Oscar Whiskey handed it to him on the plate, but saying that he ran very well and put the rest of the field under pressure to make mistakes. He will surely be doing the same on saturday and I fancy him to continue his fantastic run of of form!

 

Great preview of the races Zen! Cant wait for the weekend. Will start looking at my selections for it tomorrow night! You going to any of the days?

 

Planning on going Saturday but having looked at the card Friday looks tempting as well!

 

She is not an intended runner Oddy which is why I left her out of the preview. Both she and Quantitativeeasing are owned by JP and Henderson has said that he expects to run only the one, almost certainly Quantitativeeasing.

Must agree that Hinterland looks a cert. Was most impressed with him at Cheltenham last time. He really did travel like the proverbial 'Wrath of God'! He was still pulling down the hill and if he settles better then he will take all the beating in March. My worry would be that he might be keen in a small field of inferior horses.

 

She's done all her winning over 2m but has been stepped up to 2m4f on the big occasions. Perhaps she might be worth a short at the Grand Annual?

 

Final Thoughts:

12.00 - This looks a straight match between Solix and Sam Winner with preference for the former. His beating of Duke Of Lucca reads well and whilst improvement is needed in the jumping department he was always expected to make a better chaser than hurdler. The same can be said of Sam Winner but he jumped markedly left handed on his fencing debut at Exeter before coming down at the last. He is starting to look a shade disappointing with just 2 wins in 13 starts.

12.35 - A few open to improvement in this but the one that caught my eye at 9/1 was the Henderson trained First In The Queue. He beat Kings Realm on the bit a couple of starts back and that one is now rated 125, the same mark that he races off in this. He ran well enough in a novice race at Galway before disappointing in a handicap a few days later but that effort is easily forgiven. Still only 4 he looks capable of better.

1.10 - Not a strong looking race but I think Rory Boy has a fair squeak. He was rated as high as 135 during a smart novice career for Nigel Twiston-Davies. He subsequently lost his way but has shown something of a revival in his last two starts, winning a chase and second in a hurdle. He races here of 115 and he is clearly capable of winning of that mark at his best. Confidence may be restored and he is worth a chance at 8/1.

1.45 - The well touted Mon Parrain bids to rebuild his reputation after a dismal showing in the Paddy Power. That effort appeared too bad to be true as he was struggling from a long way out and never jumped with any fluency, his trademark feature last season. Some quarters suggested that the undulating track might not have suited but Ruby felt it was the trip that got him beat. He returns to the home of jump racing once again and it will be most interesting to see how he fares. Knockara Beau would have a chance at his best but ran poorly over hurdles last time. Fair Along was 3rd in the Hennessy last time but can often become detached before staying on. At the available 9/4 Mon Parrain is worth another chance. He was touted as a King George/Gold Cup horse and can't have lost that ability overnight. If he is to fulfil those ambitions he should be winning this well.

2.20 - The Cross Country race sees a few familiar names back at Cheltenham once again, none more so than Garde Champetre. He was beaten by Uncle Junior last time and there seems no obvious reason why he should reverse the form. Back in 3rd was Double Dizzy and she receives a 10lb pull at the weights but it is hard to see that making the difference. Preference is or Scotsirish, who looked a natural at Punchestown. He has stamina to prove but the sedate early pace should help him see out the trip. He will have the necessary pace when the sprint for the line starts in earnest and is worth chancing at 11/4.

2.55 - Oscargo and Di Kaprio look the obvious contenders and it is hard to see past them. There are plenty out of form tumbling down the weights who might pop up with a new lease of life but hard to fancy any of them.They both look short enough, in particular Oscargo at 7/4, with Di Kaprio a best priced 4/1. Di Kaprio is stepping up in trip but stayed on strongly when winning at Newbury last time and it might be just what he needs. The 4/1 looks better value and he would be my selection.

3.30 - Nicky Henderson relies on Darlan, under a penalty, for JP and AP. He's a warm order at 4/6 and this looks a winnable contest. Remarkably it is AP's only ride of the day. The hint should be taken. Balding Banker might be worth a few quid EW at 6/1 for those not fancying a short price. He was no match for Molotof last time but there's no disgrace in that. He can chase the favourite home and pick up the pieces if anything goes amiss.

 

This is a very interesting race, especially when you consider it in terms of last years Champion Hurdle: Menorah, Clerks Choice and Overturn filled 5th, 6th and 7th, and yet they appear to be fancied in the order Overturn, Menorah ..... Clerks Choice.

After the Champion Hurdle came the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, in which Menorah was beaten by Binocular, who would have come (in my opinion) higher than all three of them if he had made it to Cheltenham (and that said despite the fact that I don't really like Binocular and have laid him on a few occasions, with some success). For me, this means that Menorah, at least, can't win - he will be outclassed here I feel.

Grandouet made Marsh Warbler look very poor last time out, and so we'll rule out Marsh Warbler. Similarly Stormy Weather was a distance behind Overturn a couple of weeks back, and is eliminated. Again, Abergavenny was trounced by Brampour and hence is dropped.

That leaves 6 in it (assuming everyone turns up):

Grandouet - 3/1
Overturn - 4/1
Brampour - 9/2
Pittoni - 11/1
Clerks Choice - 16/1
Sanctuaire - 25/1

A lot of people seem overly enamored by Overturn in recent weeks. I'm afraid however, that the majority of this form lies in beating Binocular, and I think that Binocular is a good horse...but not great. Certainly I think he would have filled say 5th spot in this years Champion - behind HF, PC, OW and TS. With this in mind, I am willing to take Overturn on.

Brampour is a strong contender, but I think turning down the ride for Ruby Walsh will show to be a mistake, and I would be buying Sanctuaire in the match bet. I don't think Pittoni looked very strong in behind Thousand Stars, which leaves Sanctuaire, Grandouet, and Clerks Choice.

Grandouet looks an excellent horse, but the Nicky Henderson line of 'looking to see if he can handle Cheltenham' I'm also willing to take on.

Sanctuaire, along with the Ruby ride, and Clerks Choice, whose form looks entirely reasonable are at attractive prices.

With that in mind, EW on Clerks Choice and Sanctuaire is looking good value for money - I think it wouldn't be unreasonable to take them both now - I think both will go and all that can happen is the price can drop if horses higher in the market pull out.

Should be a cracker.

 

Menorah relishes Cheltenham and I think he is dangerously overlooked here. Last years Champion Hurdle was a fantastic one, and Menorah travelled very well in Ireland before emptying out (though he would never get near to HF)

He won the international hurdle last season, giving Cue Card a good amount of weight and handed his arse to him, and having shaped like all the ability was still there before useating on chase debut, he will be bang there IMO.

 

Not sure Menorah is being overlooked...certainly not by the layers...he a 1/4 of a point off favouritism with PP and vying for market leader with most firms.

Fascinating to see who the money comes for on Saturday.