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Cheltenham 2021 Bankers

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Ron, Jan 7, 2021.

  1. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Tuesday
    14.10 Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase.
    No doubts about this one. Only Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig and Altior have produced a better performance in the Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase than SHISHKIN. That performance gave him a Timeform rating of 165P, making him probably the banker of the meeting. He is best priced 4/5 (Lads and Coral and a few others) and that looks very good value

    Wednesday
    13.30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle
    Bravemansgame has been compared to Denman. Achieved a Timeform rating of 141p in the Newbury’s Challow Novices’ Hurdle, when drawing right away from his two remaining rivals in taking style, and in a good time. Best priced 9/2 with Lads

    16.10 Cross Country Chase
    Easysland. My banker at 5/1 last year and won like an odds on chance. Best price 2/1 'WH and B365) and will probably win again like an odds on shot

    Thursday
    13.30 Marsh Novices' Chase
    Envoi Allen looks a superstar and is available with a few at Evs. Rated 154P by Timeform and will surely be odds on come the day

    58.40/1 for the 4 horse Accum

    The ones that nearly made it are
    Zanahiyr (Triumph Hurdle) Best price 11/4 Should win but this race is often a minefield
    Paisley Park (Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle) Best price 10/3.
    Metier (ew)Supreme Novices' Hurdle Best price 7/1

     
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  2. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    So Ron, best price for the fourfold is 53/1 with Betfair. Would you take that or would you take the 39.8/1 non runner no bet with Paddy Power?
     
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  3. Ste D

    Ste D Well-Known Member

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    If I could pick four bankers now they would Appreciate It, Envoi Allen, Monkfish & Shisken. Pays 38/1
     
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  4. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    I actually think that 165P that Timeform have given Shishkin is absolute bollocks - as is his OR of 162. Firstly, the form of his Supreme Novices Hurdle win is not exactly working out well with Abacadabras having only won a very weak looking Morgiana, Chantry House won a 3-runner affair at Ascot where his main rival fell and was then stuffed by Fusil Raffles; Asterion Forlonge not sure - won a small beginners chase then fell; Allart won a Grade 2 from some right old dodgepots and you are then into the also-rans. It was an OK Supreme, but not up there with those of Altior or Al Ferof in recent years. Then you look at Shishkin's 2 Chase victories this season - the first on good ground at Kempton with 2 fences omitted and slow by 6.8 seconds. Yes he won as he liked but Mick Pastor hasn't been seen since, neither has Sanga River. 300/1 shot Battle Anthem has since pulled up at Plumpton. Then look at Shishkin's win over Christmas - a 4 runner race on soft ground in a time 5.2 seconds above standard - that was better time-wise but I think he was helped by Gumball setting the early fractions.

    2 novice chasers - Shishkin and Envoi Allen - as bankers? Hmmmm - I'd rather take Al Boum Photo, should pay better than the novice double.
     
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  5. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    give over.
     
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  6. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Remember Sprinter Sacre winning the Game Spirit Chase as a novice, beating French Opera 6 lengths and breaking Barnbrook Again's track record into the bargain? He got 161 for that. Shishkin has been nowhere near that, he is no doubt a very classy animal but they need to keep a bit of perspective.
     
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  7. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    As already discussed his time and performance on the same day and trip as Nube Negra shows how good he already is.

    In my book at this stage of his career he is ahead of Sprinter Sacre and Altior. He might not end up as good, but from everything weve seen has shown he is a class above everything he’s raced over fences and deserves to be very short for the Arkle.
     
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  8. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    We'll see on March 16th - what price might he start at? At today's odds I'd prefer Allmankind e/w <ok>
     
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  9. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    At this point in their career

    Sprinter - 3rd in Supreme. 4 hurdle runs, two bumpers. 2 chase wins beating 7 runners.

    Altior - Supreme winner, 5 hurdles three bumpers 3 chases beating 7 runners.

    Shishkin - supreme winner, 3 hurdle runs, 1 bumper 2 chases beating 6 runners.
     
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  10. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Allmankind - beaten in Triumph, ex flat horse. 5 hurdle runs. 2 chases beating 9 runners. Probably best horse he’s beaten is Hitman who I would back to beat him at the festival.

    Frankly I would lay Allmankind for a place in a Cheltenham festival race, I just can’t have him at all. To me he looks like a typical four year old who will struggle as the weight allowance is removed and I doubt we will see any improvement from what we’ve already seen in his career.
     
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  11. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Well we know Henderson ducks a challenge with the young horses ;)
     
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  12. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    It will be interesting to see if he goes Kingmaker or Game Spirit. Given Altior will probably be aimed at the latter (before being pulled) I’d expect the former. If so he’d bump into Allmankind at a track that would suit Allmankind more than Cheltenham (he has been brilliant at Warwick).

    that would be a bigger test potentially than Duc and Nube in the Game Spirit!
     
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  13. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Yeah hopefully <ok>

    I'm not trying to dis Shishkin btw - I do think he is a very special horse but, sat here on a cold January afternoon, I do like to think about what might challenge him.
     
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  14. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Sat here with fancy prices I don’t want to think that!! To my eye the danger would be something left field, perhaps the unpronounceable horse of Mullins.
     
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  15. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    The NRNB Nass
     
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  16. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Unexcepted looked a monster on chase debut - produced some spectacular leaps when Mark Walsh asked him up. The second that day, Entoucas, has since finished a close second to Blackbow and again a close second in a Grade B Handicap at Fairyhouse.
     
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  17. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Oddy, the numbers we were discussing on Shishkin versus Nube Negra & Altior are

    Start to 12F 13 14 15 16 Total Last 1/2 mile
    Shishkin 178.26 13.98 13.99 14.24 14.73 3m55.2 56.94
    Nube Negra 177.85 13.95 14.9 15.17 16.03 3m57.90 60.05
    Altior 177.79 13.95 15.13 16.04 15.84 3m58.75 60.98


    So Nube Negra and Altior were about 2 lengths ahead of Shishkin after 12 furlongs.

    As they hit the line Shishkin was 3.11 seconds faster than Nube Negra, about 15 lengths taking the soft ground metrics of 0.2 seconds a length.

    I would say that is an amazing performance and one that puts him right at the top of the best novice chasers of the last decade at this point of the season.
     
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  18. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Interesting, I think i'd have to agree.
     
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  19. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

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    Interesting, nice work Sherlock <ok">
     
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  20. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Those are RacingTV numbers from their saddlecloth GPS. With my internet I would have no chance of doing sectionals.
     
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