Here are the trends for this Saturday`s race: Age 5yo: 0-1-2 6yo: 1-0-3 7yo: 1-2-7 8yo: 5-3-21 9yo: 2-4-14 10yo: 1-2-14 11yo+: 0-1-8 Horses aged 5 to 8: 7-6-33 Horses aged 9 or older: 3-7-36 2 of 3 winners aged 9+ had finished in first 4 in a previous renewal. Weight There is a penalty structure for this race: Winner of a Class 3 weight-for-age chase or a Class 2 handicap chase receives 4lb. Winner of a Class 2 weight-for-age chase or a Class 1 handicap chase receives 6lb. Winner of a Class 1 weight-for-age chase receives 10lb Horses carrying 11-10: 1-3-14 Horses carrying 11-3 to 11-6: 5-4-32 Horses carrying 11-0 or less: 4-6-23 Only one horse carrying max weight of 11-10 has managed to win this in past 10 years. Official Ratings 8 of 10 winners were officially rated 151+ Recent/Past Form 7 of 10 winners had run 5 to 13 times over fences 10 of 10 winners had won at least 2 chases 7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out 9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 156+ in last 3 runs 9 of 10 winners (last 9) were having first run of the season (exception run once that season) 10 of 10 winners were having their first start over fences in over 200 days 9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a graded chase 9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ (exception Deep Purple had won over 2M 4F & had never run over further) 4 of 10 winners had won over CD (1 other was 2nd in this race on only previous run over CD and the other 5 had yet to run over this CD) Other Races Highest placed finisher from last year: 2P4523344 (0-3-9) Paul Stewart IronSpine Charity Challenge Gold Cup winner (Unioniste): 5 (0-0-1) Cotswold Chase winner (Cape Tribulation): P3 (0-0-2) Aintree Bowl winner (First Lieutenant): P4 (0-0-2) 2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 28 2 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 74 2 of 10 winners ran in Cotswold Chase, finishing U6 2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Chase, finishing 21 2 of 3 season chaser winners ran in Feltham Novice Chase, finishing 12 2 of 3 season chaser winners finished in first 2 in graded novice chase at that year's Aintree Festival 5 of 10 winners ran at a chase at that year's Aintree National Festival Trainers Nigel Twiston-Davies (2-1-5) trained Ollie Magern to win this race in 2005 & 2007. Paul Nicholls (1-2-8) trained Silviniaco Conti this last year, he had previously won back to back runnings in 1999 & 2000 with See More Business. Tom George (1-0-2) won this with Nacarat in 2010. Hilary Parrott (0-1-1) saddled Wayward Prince to finish 2nd last year, entered again. Nicky Henderson (0-1-3) trained Marlborough to finish 1st in 2002 & 2nd in 2003. Sackville won this for Ireland in 2001 but all 6 Irish-trained runners since 2003 have been unplaced. Racing Tactics 8 of 10 winners led or tracked leaders, though the field size for this race is usually quite small, so most runners are settled not too far from the leader. Price The last 9 winners were priced 7/1 or below Besides one shock in 2003 (40/1 shot) all other winners have come from the first 4 in the betting and have been sent off no bigger than 7/1. Favourites (3-6-10) have won 3 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 0.65. Summary: Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - Aged 6 to 8 - Carrying 11-6 or less - Finished in first 3 last time - Posted an RPR of 156+ in last 3 chase starts - Having first run of the season - Won a graded chase worth 25K+ - Won over 3M+ - Ran in a chase at Aintree in April - Course & distance winners do well - Tends to race prominently - Priced 7/1 or shorter I think HARRY TOPPER 8/1 E/W is one who could improve to trouble the seasoned pros this season.
Excellent trends right up. Personally, I wouldn’t want to look beyond Long Run for this years renewal but equally wouldn’t want to be taking short prices about him as after all this is only his ‘prep’, the Hors d'oeuvre in preparation for the main event on St Stephen’s Day. After Wetherby Long Run will receive several weeks of master tuition and the benefit of Mr Henderson’s ‘magic hands’ prior to being asked to peak on 26 December. I think on that day he’ll win a third ‘King George VI’ which will result in the roof of the grandstand being quite literally raised because, as we are all aware, a horse has never had more popular connections.
You'd have made a fortune laying old boy Long Run on his seasonal reappearance the last three years but I've a feeling Mr Henderson will have him ready to win this time. If it goes very soft you'd fancy him pretty strongly.
The horse that beat Long Run first time up last season was Silviniaco Conti, in this race. Don't think there's anything of that quality in this years line up.
Long Run didn't run in this race last year, it was the Betfair Chase at Haydock in which Silviniaco Conti beat a first time out Long Run. It's worth pointing out that it was only after last year's Charlie Hall Chase that people viewed Silviniaco Conti as a potential Gold Cup horse. SC entered last years Charlie Hall rated a 154 horse, Unioniste comes into this year's a 153 horse. If he improves in a similar fashion, (quite possible bearing in mind he's only 5!) he may well be viewed a Gold Cup contender after Saturday.
It wouldn't surprise me if Kim Bailey's horse is in the mix. Decent animal. Wouldn't take short odds on LR on seasonal debut. Not made a proper decision about the race yet but I'll be looking away from the favourite.
i have backed Harry Topper for chelt at 33/1 and at 50/1 -- a good run sat , will see those odds shrink like pbew's brain
The race is in danger of cutting up quite badly - The Giant Bolster is definitely out, and the Irish horses may stay at home, which would leave us with an 8 runner affair looking at a match between Unioniste and Long Run, who for me are the only 2 Grade 2 or better horses in what would be left of the field without the Irish. Big Fella Thanks, Billie Magern, Cape Tribulation, Harry Topper, Master Of The Hall and Wayward Prince are nowhere near Gold Cup aspirants, Long Run clearly is and Unioniste clearly could be. A 2 horse race, reverse forecast probably the play to go for.
I thought Unioniste looked a bit one-paced so he will have to improve. Cape Tribulation might be an interesting one but he too must show improvement. Long Run a rightful favourite but I can't have him at short odds, ever!
I am a big LONG RUN fan as many of you will know but being typically French he is in early decline. He is definitely always vulnerable first time out also so for me he is a lay rather than a play!
Definitely- cannot believe he won those gruelling races last year as a 4 Y O How would you campaign him mate? Think giving him some experience over shorter trips might help in terms of cruising speed etc? Struggled to travel in the RSA didn't he.
I think this is an early feeler for the top staying chases Toppy - if he can win this well then you'd have to be thinking King George and Gold Cup. If he struggles to get home they may have to re-think.
I had kind of dismissed Benefficient because I really didn't think Tony Martin would send him over for the race, but full marks to connections for deciding to compete. I would like to think the Heavy ground was the reason for his poor showing at Punchestown and, with a blow on the flat behind him, I think he will be a major player here at decent odds.
