Hard to see anyone pulling away and creating distance between themselves and the pack. Derby, possibly. They have a touch of class and a few extra points in the bag, plus they've looked solid in the last couple of games. Their next away game is key. Lose it and they're back with the rest of us. Rob is right when he says elsewhere that the Championship could be won this season with a record low number of points. This doesn't mean the second place will be low also, though, and I think what is needed to make the playoffs could be one of the highest ever. I could see half a dozen teams getting between 80 - 85. Squeaky bum time, guys. But we're in there with a shot now, and that looked highly unlikely just a few weeks ago. 8 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats MIGHT be enough for us (that would be 86). Tough call, but possible, especially if we can beat the three rival candidates at home.
Fixtures for March and IMO, both Boro and Ipswich have the toughest few weeks!!! Brighton v Derby Tue 3 Mar 19:45 Derby v Birmingham Sat 7 Mar 15:00 Norwich v Derby Sat 14 Mar 15:00 Derby v Middlesbrough Tue 17 Mar 19:45 Wolves v Derby Fri 20 Mar 19:45 Norwich v Ipswich Sun 1 Mar 14:05 Leeds v Ipswich Wed 4 Mar 19:45 Ipswich v Brentford Sat 7 Mar 15:00 Middlesbrough v Ipswich Sat 14 Mar 12:15 Ipswich v Bolton Tue 17 Mar 19:45 Watford v Ipswich Sat 21 Mar 15:00 Middlesbrough v Millwall Tue 3 Mar 19:45 Forest v Middlesbrough Sat 7 Mar 15:00 Middlesbrough v Ipswich Sat 14 Mar 12:15 Derby v Middlesbrough Tue 17 Mar 19:45 Bournemouth v Boro Sat 21 Mar 12:15 Bournemouth v Wolves Tue 3 Mar 19:45 Fulham v Bournemouth Fri 6 Mar 19:45 Bournemouth v Blackpool Sat 14 Mar 15:00 Cardiff v Bournemouth Tue 17 Mar 19:45 Bournemouth v Boro Sat 21 Mar 12:15 Norwich v Ipswich Sun 1 Mar 14:05 Norwich v Wigan Wed 4 Mar 19:45 Millwall v Norwich Sat 7 Mar 15:00 Norwich v Derby Sat 14 Mar 15:00 Huddersfield v Norwich Tue 17 Mar 19:45 Norwich v Forest Sat 21 Mar 15:00 Watford v Fulham Tue 3 Mar 19:45 Wolves v Watford Sat 7 Mar 15:00 Watford v Reading Sat 14 Mar 15:00 Wigan v Watford Tue 17 Mar 19:45 Watford v Ipswich Sat 21 Mar 15:00
Spot on, though I would say that the lowest Championship winning total was 81. I can't see our league being won with much more than 83-84 unless someone goes on a fantastic run. Which is why I'm gunning for us to get 13 wins 0 draws and 0 defeats which by my calculation would put us on 98 points and beyond doubt
Tell you what, if Ipswich are still in the top six at the end of March they'll deserve to go up. On paper our fixtures are by far the 'easiest', if only football was played 'on paper'
Let's for arguments sake give Derby the Title - I'm not saying they're a cert by any means - but let's allow them that. I cannot in all honesty, the way we are playing and with our relative fixtures, see ourselves finishing behind either the Binners or 'Boro, so I reckon it's likely to be a shoot-out between us and Bournemouth for the second auto spot. That result we grabbed at the Goldsands is starting to look better and better. Come on Forest!
it's all very close and going to be a great end to the season. Brentford and Wolves have a good play off chance. we certainly have the quality to finish top two, can we deliver it though. nobody running away with it like Leicester last year
Looking at that, I can only see us being in the top 2 by the end of Match. theres a reasonable chance we could even be top Of the tree.
I would think so, but it's still possible that they won't as so many teams have to play each other (draws being the results that damage overall points the most). This season I feel like teams at the top aren't drawing all that often which is why I'm guessing 83-84 at this stage. Derby could still run away with it though. It was West Brom in 2008: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007–08_Football_League_Championship That was also the season with the lowest play-off position in terms of points, though I don't think that will be the case for ours. A bad season for us! And Ipswich missed out on play-offs by a point. Also interesting to see Leicester got relegated that season and now look at them... For the stattos I think I've linked this before but it's quite useful for gauging: http://www.footballforums.net/showthread.php/271690-Championship-Run-in-Ladder That tells us that, essentially, if you get 87 points you will be very unlucky not to get autos...
The binners scoffed when I posted this back in January, I only wish one of them had been brave enough to use it as their signature as I honestly still believe it could become a reality
"it could"? Maybe not precisely "four points" but I am getting ever more confident by the day about our prospects and your prediction. I've been giving them Binners loads of signature material for the last few days and none of them have taken it! Fear is holding them back. It's brilliant. They've never been brave enough to make a counterprediction as early though no doubt they will try to use it later down the line if we don't get promoted but I just don't care because from where I'm sitting it seems more likely that we will.
With 13 games remaining, you would expect 4 to be against top 8 teams. Middlesborough/Ipswich have 6, Derby have 5, Bournemouth and Norwich have 3. The remaining 13 games are not significantly harder for these teams. Also, they can't all suffer from playing these games. If Derby and Middlesbrough play each other then, just as much as it ensures that one will drop points, it also ensures that one will take points. My point is that, for this league to be won with 83 points, Derby's PPG will have to drop from 2 to below 1.5 over fixtures that are really little different to the ones they have faced all season. It might happen but I don't see why anyone would expect it to. Middlesborough could lose all 6 of those 'top 8' fixtures and still pick up more than 83 points. They don't need to go on a fantastic run to clear 83 points. They just need to carry on.
Nearly half of Middlesbrough and Ipswich's remaining games are against top 8 teams. That's a lot. Many away. I don't understand your last point? Our fixtures are the easiest of the lot, by some margin, if we beat Ipswich on Sunday. That's why I could see us going on a run. Eh? That's why I mentioned draws - draws mean both teams drop points. That's where the limit has been. The weird thing about this mid-season with the bizarre Chuckle Brothers activity at the top of the league is that these teams aren't drawing as much - it's all either win or lose. I believe we'll see some draws coming up as it gets tight, pressure ramps, squads get stretched by fatigue and you come across some teams fighting for survival. That's more than believable. They need 19 points to get to 84. I reckon they will get between 8 and 11 points from their next 7 games. After that, anything can happen - if they only get 8 they have to make up 12 points from their last six games to exceed my prediction. I accept they could well. I also acknowledge that they are by far and away the most likely team to do so (and have indeed looked like it all season). As I said, if one team (most likely Derby) goes on a good run, then the 84 points mark probably will be well cleared. I'm just saying that I don't think it will. It's a fine margin, but as you're quite oddly pressing this point I'm going to make a stab in the dark and say I think there is a 60% chance Derby won't exceed 84 points. That still means there is a very good chance they will. By which you mean they would pick up 84 points. Which is what I predicted. And that would mean they won all their others. Which they won't. Sorry, Swedish, I'm afraid I'm a bit lost as to what point you're making. I'm saying I've looked at the remaining fixtures and think X will happen. You don't need to tell me that my prediction might not come true. I know that. That's why it is a prediction. If I could know that X will happen, I would be a very rich man from the bookies!
The point I would raise would be around SD's final sentence when he talks of Middlesboro needing to "carry on". I assume he means carry on beating Bolton 1-0 at home as they did last night, but they could just as easily carry on losing at home to the likes of Leeds as they did on Saturday. Plenty of wobbles to be made between now and the end of the season, let's just hope that we've already made ours and from now on it will be us who shows the consistency so many of our rivals had been doing until the past few weeks.
No, I just mean they need to carry on achieving the PPG they have already averaged this season (a touch under 2). Rob is saying that 83-84 is as high as teams will get, because there is an unusual number of tough games left and it would take a fantastic run to achieve more. I'm saying I don't think the number of tough games is actually as significant as he thinks, and rather than taking a "fantastic run" to achieve more, a higher total is quite achievable by a number of teams if they just carry on with their seasons form so far. Rob, I'm not saying you can't have a prediction, or that it won't come true. I'm just saying for me the evidence points to something different! I haven't looked at it on a per-game basis. I gave up on that long ago! Maybe I'd come to the same conclusion if I did but on the face of it 83 seems low.
Rather than looking at their ppg across the whole season, maybe a better indicator would be looking at recent form, which hasn't been great since Arsenal ended their six game winning streak. Karanka said it was their worst performance of the season last night as they struggled to beat Bolton at home.
Can't wait to see this updated after last night's results 0 http://www.footstats.co.uk/?task=formguide
