Champion Hurdle Preview.

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Having done an earlier preview of the Chasing prospects for this season, I thought I’d try my hand at reviewing the prospects for top Hurdling honours this year.
Personally, I find the picture very confusing, and I shall be interested to hear all other members’ views on the subject.
I shall list the potential main contenders for next March’s Champion Hurdle, although I accept that one or two listed may still go the ‘chasing route.’

Hurricane Fly.
On top form, few would dispute that he is the best hurdler in training. Overall this relatively small horse has a fantastic win ratio, characterised by a high cruising speed and a devastating turn of foot.
However, his disappointing run in last season’s Champion Hurdle was perplexing, to say the least, especially since he seemed to have dispelled all doubts when winning in 2011.
This autumn will see his fifth year of hurdling since being brought from France, and therefore one questions how long can he maintain his form at the top level, and ‘which Hurricane Fly’ will turn up at Cheltenham?

Rock On Ruby.
Prior to the 2012 Champion Hurdle, his form looked as good as anything on this side of the water, having been unluckily beaten by Binocular at Kempton after impressively winning a good handicap under top weight.
Possibly many people doubted his credentials for the two mile trip- having been campaigned at around 20 furlongs as a novice.
However, he chased Overturn all the way and stayed on strongly to win with some authority.
Subsequently, he ran poorly against Oscar Whisky at Aintree, but possibly the fast track was as much against him as his exertions at Cheltenham. Nonetheless, still disappointing - given his light campaign.
It may also be that a strongly run two miles at Cheltenham really suits him, rather than the longer trip elsewhere.

Cinders And Ashes.
He maintained his form throughout the year and stayed on strongly to beat Darlan in the Supreme Novices.
On a form line through Darlan’s effort in the Tote Gold Trophy- where he fell when challenging- there is little between him, Zarkandar, and Get Me Out Of Here. The latter was certainly the unlucky horse of the race, and it is open to question whether Darlan would have beaten Zarkandar- getting 5 lbs.
Either way, is this really top Grade One form? I have my doubts.

Zarkandar.
Last Saturday’s win at Wincanton confirmed that Zarkandar goes particularly well when fresh and, in fairness, any serious Champion Hurdle contender just had to win that race, despite giving weight away.
The puzzling aspect of this horse is that his novice wins at Kempton and Cheltenham (Triumph Hurdle) were marked by a high cruising speed and a fine turn of foot.
In both this year’s Champion Hurdle and Tote Gold Trophy, he seemed badly outpaced for long periods, and only stayed on strongly late on in the race- despite winning at Newbury.

Darlan.
Apart from falling at Newbury, his only defeat in a seven race career was when second behind Cinders And Ashes.
Since he’s only 5 years old, improvement can be expected, and he wouldn’t need too much to be a serious challenger.

Grandouet.
After his third behind Zarkandar in the 2011 Triumph, Grandouet seemed to flourish as a hurdler, and his defeat of Overturn at Cheltenham last December was decisive, albeit a Grade Two contest.
Barry Greraghty feels that this is a live contender this year, even though any period ‘out through injury’ must be a concern.

Oscar Whisky.
Given Hurricane Fly’s demise in this year’s Champion Hurdle- and Peddler’s Cross’ defection to larger obstacles- Nicky Henderson must have regretted taking on Big Bucks in the World Hurdle.
On all known form, he must have been involved in the finish, despite his preference for 2.5 miles.
I notice that his ante-post price has shrunk somewhat lately- as low as 14/1. That makes the 48/1 on Betfair (11/1 a place) quite attractive. He could still go chasing, but I doubt that; likewise the folly of taking on Big Bucks again.

Simonsig.
A very impressive stamp of a horse, he is as low as 7/1 in ante-post lists.
However, surely he’ll be targeted at the Arkle chase- having chaser written all over him.

Binocular.
He ran quite a good race against Rock On Ruby in March, despite never really getting to grips with the leaders.
He’ll be nine years old in March, and it’s hard to see him contending again.

Peddler’s Cross.
I have no idea what his plans are for this season. His chasing exploits left much to be desired, so will Donald McCain return him to hurdles- to take in the Champion or possibly challenge Big Bucks.
If returning to two mile hurdles, he must have a chance against the best- providing he’s not been soured by his efforts chasing.

Rite Of Passage.
Despite his high class efforts on the Flat, he couldn’t cope with Peddler’s Cross in the 2010 Neptune Hurdle at the festival.
He would certainly be an interesting contender, but his hurdling would need to have improved.

Overturn.
This wonderfully consistent horse gave his all last March, but found Rock On Ruby too good.
I’ve always felt he’s a top Grade Two horse, but I feel that about most of the others anyway.

Summary.
Probably as open a Champion Hurdle as you could imagine- almost all the above horses have some sort of chance.
Personally, I feel it looks more like a top Grade two contest, but that shouldn’t spoil its competitiveness and interest.
The big question mark is Hurricane Fly. With him out of the way, take your pick!
What do other members think?
My conclusion is ( confusedly)....

Best horse in the race.......Hurricane Fly.

Horse to beat...................Darlan.

Horse to watch out for.......Grandouet.

Dark Horse.......................Rite Of Passage.

Best Ante-Post..................Oscar Whisky (48/1 Win, 11/1 Place, Betfair)

 

A good read Tamerlo...

I am a Zarkandar fan, and so i maybe looking at this race through one way glasses but i really do think that Paul Nichols can get him ready for this race...

To be honest a mate of mine gave me this horse as a big fancy of his for the JCB Triumph back in 2011 in which he duly won, and ive hooked onto him ever since. He then followed up at Aintree for a Grade1 Juvenille race, beating Kumbeshwar 20 days later. His next run was at Newbury after a long break of 316 days, and although the Nicholls yard was struggling with a cough among his stable, Zarkandar produced a very gutsy effort to get up to win again. This run just confirmed to me that Zarkandar has got some balls and will always put a fight up when put under pressure.

The fact that most of the wins have shown that he has guts also shows that he isnt the best horse on paper, and i am readily able to accept that. But PN has got an early run under his belt this year, in fact its the first time he has run before the end of January since he has had him. Having only run 7 career races so far i am hoping that these extra races will indeed put a bit more in the tank for him to not be working so hard come 3f out and thus save a bit for the finish.

The run in the Champion Hurdle last time, showed he can stay on at the end but he did hit a bit of a flat spot that put him to far back to get up to place or win. Agian i do think that this can be put down to the coughing at the stable, and was just enough for him to struggle...


I am big on Zarkandar, and i make no apologies for that, but i do think its going to be hard for us to make a big call on this race until we've seen all the runners get a run in under their belts...

Without going into great depth here are my picks to go along with yours...

Best Horse... Hurricane Fly

Horse to beat... Zarkandar

Horse to watch out for... Oscar Whisky

Dark Horse... Darlan

Ante Post... £20 e/w Zarkandar @ 14/1...

 

Good read Tam, and again, the champion hurdle looks like it's going to be a puzzle to solve all the way up to the day of the race.

I'm with you on most of the assessments you make, and think you've got it spot on about Hurricane Fly, I backed him this year at Cheltenham, and couldn't believe how quickly he stopped, after moving into contention quite effortlessly. Having said that, I'm also still of the opinion he is the best horse in the race, and he may be hard to beat this time round.

Thought Zarkandar was impressive this weekend and think he will come on for the run, Cinders & Ashes run at Cheltenham in the Supreme novices proved he can do it at the track, despite making 2 terrible mistakes, and I hope that Go Native can get back to his best, and put himself in the mix. Darlan travelled very well in the Supreme, but I don't think he found a great deal for pressure up the hill, Binocular may win the Christmas hurdle again, but won't be winning at Cheltenham, and Oscar Whiskey doesn't have the pace in my opinion, although he is a top horse.


Best Horse... Hurricane Fly

Horse to beat... Hurricane Fly

Horse to watch out for... Zarkandar

Dark Horse... Go Native / Cinders

Ante Post... £10 e/w Go Native @ 25/1

 

Cheers Tamerlo, nice thread. I am starting to like darlan more and more. Just been watching a few replays, from last year and the horse is unlucky not to have a better record. I don't think Mccoy gave it the best of rides in the supreme. Was kept to far back, and before that was cruising in the betfair hurdle that Zarkandar won before taking a crushing fall. So credit to the horse for getting back up and running second at the festival then slamming a half decent field at Aintree.

In tomorrows racing post there is a stable tour of Hendersons yard and he say's that the plan is the racing post hurdle at cheltenham on Sunday for which he is top weight and favorite. So a speculative bet i have done is for him to win that and then the champion hurdle at 20/1 with paddy power.

 

Good thread Tam, I was with Grandouet & Zarkandar last season and have had a bet on them both at 12/1 for the Champion Hurdle this season. Grandouet had the form to of won it last season and if he is fine after his injury he must go very close. Zarkandar had a disrupted run up to the Champion Hurdle last season and Nicholls said he was not right in the race, after his win at Wincanton he should be CH favourite now imo.

 

Hawkeye, that's one of the worst bets I've ever seen.

 

Really? Why Bob, I thought it was ok.

 

New kids on the block for me. Either Cinders and Ashes to emulate Brave Inca or Countrywide Flame to ape the marvellous little Katchit. The fighting fifth should be very informative.

 

Just bare in mind that Prospect Wells was a running on 5th in the Supreme Novice, not beaten far, yet Zarkandar beat him giving a stone away at the weekend. I think the Supreme Novice form will be shocking and don't see any of them threatening as Champion Hurdlers.

I would rule out Darlan regardless of how well he travels.


Binocular gets older and surely it is too far for him now. Hurricane Fly will be spot on for the race this year (Mullins had some perplexing issues with his hurdlers pre-Cheltenham- Midnight Game failed to sparkle in a gallop, Hurricane failed to sparkle on the track, and Boston Bob was beaten by the late Brisindi Breeze and Campbell Gillies-R.I.P both).

Could we seriously rule out a repeat head to head of Peddlers Cross and Hurricane Fly battling out a finish? Prior to a perplexing performance at Cheltenham, Peddlers Cross was touted as the best horse Donald McCain has ever trained and I'm not fully convinced they will not go the Champion Hurdle route. Why not? If HF underperfprmed last year, there's every chance he'd have been a Champion now so it is folly to rule him out.

I couldn't be having Go Native at any price and would back Hurricane Fly to hammer him. Go Native is talented but you have to really improve from a Supreme Novice win to Champion Hurdle company. (You'll hear more reasoning on this from me soon)

Rock On Ruby is a bloody good horse- stays well, great at Cheltenham, hurdles well. Will be very interesting to see him this season because he will be targeted to peak in March again. Cannot rule out.

From those mentioned, Hurricane Fly, Zarkandar, Peddlers Cross and Rock On Ruby would be mt ideas of challengers though there might be at least one radar horse everyone has missed, depending on how trainers have planned their seasons.


Will be a great race this year.

 

far too early to be even thinking about the Champion Hurdle or any cheltenham race really, but agree with Toppy, Go Native wont be winning it as much as I like the horse, 2 mile crawl on flat speed tracks for him, Fighting Fifth or Christmas Hurdle his best chance of a decent win.

 

Toppy, good morning!
I think you've done a good and fair analysis there!
The four horses you've listed have probably the best form, although I should include Oscar Whisky as a pretty classy animal.
However, I just can't get my head round Zarkandar and his lines of form. I was very impressed with his Kempton and Triumph wins, but these juvenile hurdlers don't seem to progress to the top in recent times- apart from Katchit who arguably won a poor Champion Hurdle.
If you accept redcgull's argument that Nicholls had coughing in the stable last year (and therefore Zarkandar wasn't at his best), then fair enough, but this is the problem with our hurdlers- you're always having to make excuses for disappointing runs. That's a trend that never used to happen with top hurdlers- and nowadays they often only run three or four times a year!
The race that raises question marks is this year's Tote Gold Trophy. I had a good EW bet on Get Me Out Of Here who was desperately unlucky in being hampered and losing about 4 lengths when coming to take control of the race. He was handicapped at 11st 1lb (same as Zarkandar) but his apprentice rider claimed 7lbs. I just can't see this as anything but top Class Two form, but maybe I'm being cynical , as usual!
Looking at the 2011 race, you'd have to say that both Hurricane Fly and Peddler's Cross would beat the lot of them if they could reproduce that form; but that's history!
I was a big fan of Rock On Ruby for last March's race, but I just couldn't see him beating Hurricane Fly- so I didn't have a bet. But why did ROR run so badly at Aintree? Champion Hurdlers used to take the Martell Hurdle in their stride!
Anyway, I see the race as a real conundrum and an avenue for much debate.

 

Oh of course I forgot to add Grandouet also, who is a very good hurdler and will be Henderson's No.1 hope this season. His form stacks up nicely in last seasons context. He will shorten in the betting when he wins well when reappearing.

Do we have any new 2m contenders who might have improved?

Zarkandar is a cracking battler who sees out the races well but has he got that biy of finesse and ability to quicken away? Id want 20s about him if I were to back him.

 

The Champion Hurdle is a really confusing picture for me this season, as I don't think the top table hurdlers are a brilliant bunch, but I also think that last seasons novices were not the best either. At the minute Rock On Ruby and Zarkandar have obvious chances from the UK sphere whilst the 'Fly is still probably the most talented hurdler over the 2 mile trip. All three have issues for me, and I wouldn't be going strongly on any of those this season. I just wonder if we will get something battle hardened and solid coming up the hill at a decent price this season, perhaps a course specialist.

 

I would be confident enough to say that if either of the front pair in the market (Hurricane Fly and Rock on Ruby) win the old ‘Champion Hurdle’ then I will run down my local High Street starkers. The former’s Champion Hurdle win, in my opinion, should always be followed by an asterisk denoting the fact that he won it due to Binocular’s absence as a result of those ‘unfortunate circumstances’ whilst last years race lacked strength in depth and really developed into a tactical affair rather than a typical Champion Hurdle which Noel Fehily stole due to a sensational ride where he rode the other jockeys to sleep (McCoy in particular should have hung his head in shame in my view). If anything approaching decent turns up I doubt if either will see which way he went.

Mr Henderson, the forum’s favourite trainer, has a very strong hand, and if someone held a gun to my head, although I’m sure no-one would ever want to do that, then I’d nominate Grandouet as the most likely winner at this stage. That one is backed up by the likes of Darlan (my number 2 choice at the time of writing), my old fave, Binocular, Oscar Whiskey and Simonsig (should they opt to remain over timber with him). I really thing Mr Henderson will regain his hurdling crown again this term amid huge cheers from the racegoers. Meanwhile, I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, I think Cinders and Ashes is his main rival.

 

I would rather have Dodging Bullets on my side (if he ever calms down he will be a classy horse) than Countrywide Flame, however I wouldn't want to be on either.

 

"I would be confident enough to say that if either of the front pair in the market (Hurricane Fly and Rock on Ruby) win the old ‘Champion Hurdle’ then I will run down my local High Street starkers."

Barney, I can't find a price for that on Betfair!
What price are you offering? It's not everyday you have a chance to both win a packet and see a wee winkle flailing in the wind down the high street!