Seems confidence is certainly mounting in him, I'm just starting to think that the price has become completely unreflective of his chances and the hype machine is in over drive...
I always ignore this type of propoganda, unless I've seen it with my own eyes, and that usually means seeing it on a racetrack, they haven't even named the horse he pulled clear of! All I've seen from CH is him win the Dante in a very slow time, fair enough the time wasn't down to him, but I'd want to see alot more from a gorse to consider backing him at 5/4 for the Derby! When you talk of 5/4 for the Derby you think of Nijinsky's and Shergars of this world, and there is no way Carlton House has produced performances anywere near as good as those 2 leading up to the race! I'm not saying the horse won't win, as he probably has the strongest form, but if he wasn't the Queens he would be a 3/1 favourite, not 5/4! I probably won't be having a bet in the race, so il be happy to cheer the Queens horse home, if I do have a bet it will most likely be on Native Khan, at a double figure price, his Guineas form is pretty solid
Carlton House won the Dante in the style of a horse who needs a flight of hurdles and at least two circuits to be seen at his best and I will definitely be laying him on Derby Day. Fallon is very sweet on the chances of Recital and I think Seville, who was confidently ridden by Soumillon at York, will improve for the run. It's a very sub-standard Derby and, to be honest, I really don't care who wins it, but it probably won't be Carlton House.
I have a feeling Carlton House will find at least one other too good on the day. AOB needs to confirm his runners but after the weekend talk was Recital & Seville look likely to go to Epsom and I would think they'll both improve for the run too. So will Carlton House though and he does have one over on Seville already. Definitely it being the Queens horse has squeezed the price so I'll do the same as in the Guineas and look for a little value e/w somewhere...or just not bother!
