Tips / Bets Can we do it ? 23/24 edition

Unfortunately it's all about money and we don't have any .

We will have to sell players to stay afloat without that Premier league money.

Premier league seasons are usually horrible but we need the money .

 

I've voted No, so good reason for everyone to feel hopeful if you've seen my performance in the Score Prediction Threads.

 

If we make the play-offs our chance of promotion is actually closer to 50%, because at most, we only play against 2 of the 4 play-off teams. The last time it was Ipswich home and away then Boro at Wembley. For me then, we can do it, but it isn't a certainty, which is why I didn't vote either yes or no.

 

Look at your math again, Rick. All things being equal, each playoff team has a 1-in-4 chance of winning. I voted No because for the last season and a half these players haven't shown me they are good enough.

 

Yes, I accept that it's 1/4 for all four teams, but I was looking at the fact that we only have to beat two teams to be promoted. That seems less daunting than having to beat 3 other teams. Our chances depend on Wagner's ability to get our players to play consistently as a team rather than as 11 individuals, which was too often the case under Smith. The signs were good at Preston, but it needs to be maintained over the next 19 matches.

 

I was tempted to put a bet on promotion but 7/2 is not very good

 

Bump

 

Maybe put 1000 on Burnley going up and you can get a couple of cups of coffee for it

 

7/2 backs up the very comprehensive analysis earlier in the thread. Assuming we have a 25% chance then it just adds in the bookie's profit margin. The big question is do we want to go up? We would almost certainly have another dire season.

 

And £160m in the bank.

 

We are now out at 5/1 according to oddschecker, which is odd pricing because it has Boro at 9/5. I guess that is because Boro has a chance at autos, but I feel like that fails to recognise that only two can go up automatically - so whatever the odds are for the top three shouldn’t affect any other playoff contenders.

My best guess is now is a good price to bet overall, the odds will only get shorter as the number of playoff contenders shrinks and if Sheffield United find form again to cement the top two

 

I don't understand this , hoping to not get promoted because the team will be better equipped the following season .

The relegated sides get stronger each season & as one of the poorest sides in the top 2 divisions we need that sweet sweet TV money .

Our better players like Sara will need to be sold & it's harder to attract new players outside the Premier league.

Personally I wouldn't care if the club banked all the Premier millions & get relegated again financially buoyant rather than gamble our future on big signings.

I believe we will finish top 6

 

7/2 isn't 25% that would be 8/2

 

I totally agree with you, DD. For me, the idea that we don't want to go up because we'll be better prepared for the step-up if we delay promotion for a year is the triumph of theory over reality - clubs can't pick and choose what lies ahead, so you snatch at the opportunity if it comes. Also, it's not like the past when a team that romped the second tier were almost bound to survive in the first - our own record of easily winning the Championship twice and then not doing as well as the other teams who went up with us proves that.

I am less confident about your final sentence, but our performance this weekend should tell us a lot about that.

 

Put it this way , watching & following Norwich has become enjoyable again for me & we clearly have a squad that knows what the manager wants & scoring amazing goals.

The cloud of doom has departed & the smiles are back on the faces of the players & fans.

Well most of us

 

For me, the difference now is Wagner. He has energised the players after the lethargy Smith inspired and if we manage to gain promotion, Pukki may stay on and we'll have Mumba coming back from loan with the ability to play a variety of positions. We won't have much to spend as the cash comes later, but if we can come up with some uninjured new additions including a quality CB and a strong DM suited to Wagner's tactics (I don't see Hayden as that), we might have a chance in the PL.

 

Rashica may also be one that can come back and benefit from the new manager, Jon Rowe could become a fully fledged first team member. I personally think it is time to move on from Pukki no matter which league we are in and look toward the future with Sargent and Idah. That isn't a knock to Pukki who is undoubtedly one of the best strikers we have seen at the club, but if he doesn't want to sign a contract now then let him go, his quality has strangled the progress of others.

 

I agree though think it’s a bit harsh to say Smith inspired lethargy!

I think he had good ideas and a good system to play towards, but the players we had didn’t click with that system frequently enough and that gradually and steadily eroded everyone’s confidence (players, fans, and his). That’s what developed the lethargy…! The issue was his system with the players and he wasn’t prepared to change the system he wanted, which is fine but then it’s the end.

Wagner has brought in a new system which is better suited to the players we have, rather than perhaps the players Smith wanted.

 

Yes, lethargy was probably the wrong word, but everything was so slow and predictable under Smith. Wagner has brought quick movement and an intensity of play in marked contrast to what Smith managed.