35 horses charging down the Rowley Mile in the Betfred Cambridgeshire Handicap. Thank goodness it is a straight mile on a wide track. Punters' Paradise or Nightmare? Entries and Odds See also the Daily Thread on the day The track
Found some stats pre the 2013 race so 2013 and 2014 results added in next post (not incorporated into the stats) "Market Trends Favourites (inc. joints):2 wins from 12 for a break even situation. Top three in betting: 4 wins for the top three in the betting. Top six in betting: 6 wins for the top six in the betting. Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided 6 of the last 10 winners. LTO stats Days since last run: 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for 16 days or less. Position LTO: 1 win for horses that won LTO (from 54 runners). Position LTO: 4 wins for horses that finished in the first three LTO from 123 runners. LTO favourites:2 wins for horses that were favourite LTO (from 55 runners). LTO Top three in betting: 3 wins for horses from the top three in the betting LTO (from 143 runners). LTO price: Horses priced 9/1 to 20/1 LTO have provided 7 of the last 10 winners. LTO race type: Horses that ran in a non handicap LTO have provided 0 winners from 71. LTO course: Horses that raced at Newbury LTOhave provided 5 wins from 58. Trainer stats Trainers:2 wins from 8 for John Gosden. General stats Headgear (visor, cheekpieces, blinkers, etc): 2 wins from 56. Claiming jockeys:2 wins from 49. Recent win:7 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last three starts from 149 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £25.00 (ROI +16.8%). Handicap wins:Horses that had not won a handicap previously have provided 0 winners 53. Course winners:Horses that have previously won at the course have provided just 1 winner from 55. Conclusion – A race that averages 32 runners is going to be tough to unravel and whatever happens the trends can only be used to create a shortlist of candidates. A good starting point looks to be ignoring runners that raced in a non handicap LTO. They have had 0 winners in the last 10 years and they have made up 22% of the total runners. It also looks worth avoiding horses that have failed to win a handicap as well. From a positive perspective, horses that were priced between 9/1 and 20/1 LTO have a good record. They have provided 70% of the winners from only 37% of the total runners. There seems no significant age bias although 7yos+ are probably worth avoiding (0 wins and only 3 placed runners from 36). There has been little too in the draw."
This has been the target ALL SEASON Ron with us hoping he would get in the consolation race on the Friday afternoon. We need 32 to come out and the rain to stop, he would have some chance if he gets in off his mark!
Having gone through the first 50 those stats (by my reckoning) come up with a short list of: Donncha - 25/1 at present Yourartisonfire - 50/1 at present Altharoos - 50/1 at present Polar Forest - 50/1 at present
Donncha - 25/1 at present Not entered before the Cambridgeshire Yourartisonfire - 50/1 at present Entered 19Sep15 4:20 (Four Day) at Ayr, William Hill Ayrshire Handicap Altharoos - 50/1 at present Entered 19Sep15 5:35 (Four Day) at Newmarket, Son of Sid Fine Ale Furlong Handicap Polar Forest - 50/1 at present - Entered 19Sep15 4:20 (Four Day) at Ayr, William Hill Ayrshire Handicap On the stats that would rule out Donncha and the other 3 need to finish out of the first 3 (at odds between 9/1 and 20/1) in their next race which would also qualify them on the "raced within 16 days" before the Cambridgeshire
Bronze Angel in form / allowed to run on his merits (delete as appropriate) is a very dangerous animal in any race. And after his win at the weekend (although that does now mean he must carry a penalty) he has to enter calculations. One time Guineas hopeful, Nafaqa, also looks most interesting off 107. Now gelded, on the pick of his form, he looks ridiculously well handicapped. Touching on the other leg of the ‘Autumn Double’ if you have a look at that it would appear that it contains ‘more plots than an Agatha Christie novel’. The Ces may have lost a lot of its appeal this term as Mr Henderson, the forum’s favourite trainer, has no entries but you look at about twenty horses and wonder ‘cor bally blinkin’ blimey what are they up to with that!’. If he gets in Pip Hobbs’ Golden Doyen looks a fascinating contender. The 4YO has won on the level and was one of the top juvenile hurdlers, in the NH sphere last term. Most interesting, methinks. 25’s commonly available.
..and ridden by Squid Dingleback, who claims the full 7lb allowance. Ah, memories and nostalgia from the distant past. 1947 Manchester November Handicap (inaugurated 1876) at Castle Irwell, winner was the filly "Regret" at 66/1, handicap weight 6-7, and ridden by apprentice J.Walker claiming 7lbs. Won comfortably in the mud carrying 6-stone even. Ah, those really were the days. Better than all these fatty riders of today! Aftertiming, but I had a bob on with my mum the bookie. She was reluctant to pay me out but dad said she had too. We didn't speak to each other for a day or two.
We need eleven defectors to get in the Silver race! We will find out on Monday if that is likely. The big question then is do I get a flight back early from my holiday in Spain to watch him? The one in the main race that jumps off the page at me is FORGOTTEN HERO.
I am due to come back on the Saturday! Tentative arrangements have been made for a mate of mine to pick me up from Stanstead on Fri morning and take me to Newmarket as my car will be at Gatwick!
All these 100/1 odds being quoted for horses with no chance of running. Does the bet get switched to the Silver race, or get refunded, or are they just thieves?
Its a refund provided they are declared and get balloted out. The bets are only for the main race, a new market gets formed for the consolation race.
Thanks stick. I presume then that anyone wanting to go for the Silver (like yourselves) will stay declared and those balloted out of the main race will qualify for the Silver. That, in itself, should minimise the number of defectors
