Would like to see a preview of this race. For the time being, the softer the better for The Tin Man but 3/1 at best means he has to be backed to win. The outstanding bet in this is the 7/1 on offer from WH for Librisa Breeze. Librisa Breeze loves Ascot 6f soft and won the race last year beating many of these, including fav The Tin Man. This was despite not the clearest of runs. Has not had his ground since. and looks to be primed for back to back wins. He looks nailed on ew at 7/1 Librisa Breeze ew at 7/1 WH NB. see below - price isn't available (Actually 5/1)
NB. Those odds were taken from ATR (who supposedly reflect bookies odds) but they seem to have all WH prices wrong (Eg I was about to put up Crystal Ocean at 5/1 ew. but on Oddschecker WH have him at 5/2). However on Oddschecker. Librisa Breeze is best priced 5/1 Still the best bet in the race at ew
Call me mad (it wouldn't be the first time) but I have a strong inkling about Dream of Dreams at 33-1 ew
I have a soft spot for Limato, having been at Longchamp to see him come from an impossible position to get up to be 2nd to Make Believe on Arc day 3 years ago. Soft ground is as soft as he has encountered so not sure how he will cope if comes up really soft to heavy
Quite a poor renewal of this race I feel. Harry Angel has never quite fulfilled his promise but he has met the wrong going a few times and was desperately unlucky at Royal Ascot. I had waited many months sitting on a 5/1 voucher for the Jubilee race, only for the horse to get trapped in the stalls on the day. I had a similar experience with Blue Point ante post for the Al Quoz sprint at Meydan at 13/2 and then saw him pulled out 30 seconds before the off because a little blood was coming out of one nostril. You can't believe these things sometimes. Anyway, Harry Angel has met soft going again and after fading in his last race, you feel conditions won't suit again here. I can never catch the Tin Man on a going day. He either flops or is unlucky when I back him and usually comes to spoil the party when I am on something else. I'll pass on him at the odds. Limato is probably a little flattered by the three consecutive wins. Two of them were Listed races and it looked a weak Group 2 he won last time. He has normally swerved soft ground in the past. Hard to see him suddenly getting a liking for ground his trainer has shunned in the past. Plenty here come into the race out of form. At the odds Librisia Breeze is the poorest looking value considering he is a year from his last win and his previous win to that one was a further year back. 2 wins in 2 years is not really what you want for a 5/1 shot in my opinion. Others seem to have lost their way and at the odds on offer here I think Brando is probably the best value as an each-way propect at 8/1. Kevin Ryan's Brando has done me a few favours in the past, winning the Ayr Gold Cup was a highlight. along with a 3rd at 40/1 each-way in the July Cup as a value alternative to Caravaggio who was odds on that day. There have been some poor runs from him too mind you. He was tailed off last on one occasion when 5/2 Fav but it later transpired he had burst blood vessels. 2nd to The Tin Man last time, beaten 1/2 a length, he is more than double the odds now but there is only a fag paper between the two horses on ratings. He seems to represent better value to me. With Jamie Spencer on board you would expect to see Brando coming through in the closing stages and hopefully the famous "Frank" can time it right. In a renewal where there is little appeal I think Kevin Ryan's decent sprinter can be thereabouts at what is a viable each-way price for people who like to cover their bet a bit. Normally I would rather pick two as win only because getting the full odds and two horses going for you appeals as a better value overall than the fifth of the odds for the place part of the wager. Brando 8/1 on the nose for me.
Heavy ground could provide a big price winner. Harry Angels recent form and persistent temperament issues discounts him from my list though I'd like to see him win. A small ew play on the Wokingham winner Bacchus @ 33/1 for me.
Brando does like to come late so he has the right jockey for that. Librisa Breeze does love Ascot and loves the soft so all his form since last year can be discounted. Brando was bumped when making challenge last year so it is conceivable he could go well with a clear run from the rear. Sod it. Here is my bet (net profit in brackets if one wins) 2 points win Librisa Breeze 5/1 (7.5 points) 1 point win Brando 8/1 (4.5 points) 1 point win Harry Angel 13/2 (3 points) 0.5 point win Limato 16/1 (4 points)
(Disclaimer: I've never knowingly met, spoken to, or communicated with anyone connected with the Ivory stable). But the programme followed by Librisa Breeze this season does suggest irresistibly to me that this race has been the plan since the day after last year's Champions' meeting. The ground looks to have come right, the draw will give Winston a choice of where to make his run and the opposition (apart from The Tin Man) doesn't look top class if you accept that Harry Angel and Ascot just don't get on. Like Ron, I missed the fancy prices, but I did get some 6-1 on the exchange. I'll be surprised if I can't trade at a profit at some point on Saturday, but I'll probably let it run. I'd still much rather it was held at Newmarket, but this looks like a good day's racing. Enjoy.
To calm my nerves I'm covering that with 1.5 points on The Tin Man at 3/1 Meaning 2 points win Librisa Breeze 5/1 (6 points) 1 point win Brando 8/1 (3 points)/1 1 point win Harry Angel 13/2 (1.5 points) 0.5 point win Limato 16/1 (2.5 points) 1.5 points win The Tin Man 3 (0 points) Silly bet but can watch with some interest
Crowley fancied Tasleet strongley lto when the ground went soft/heavy, might be worth another go as he just didnt get away well in that race behind The Tin Man.
