Workforce 10/11 Jan Vermeer 5/1 Elusive Pimpernel 7/1 Afsare 10/1 Cavalryman 12/1 Black Spirit 16/1 Distant Memories Sri Putan 16/1 Poet 20/1 *Prices available at Paddy Power
I would love to see Jan Vermeer win this. Despite his pedigree, his best form has been short of 12f and maybe 10f is his distance. He was a very strange declaration for the Lockinge which makes me think even AOB doesn't know his distance. But, being realistic, Workforce had him well beaten at the 10f marker in the Derby and at that stage Workforce was still a big baby and did well to keep balanced on such a testing course. Although I don't believe he could have ever beaten Harbinger in the King George, I do think he ran below form, probably due to the effects of such a fast run race on firm ground on a switchback course (the ultimate test of a horse's conformation). His run in the Arc confirmed his well being and I've always thought he would make a better 4yo. So, although 10f may be a little sharp for him these days, Sandown is quite a stiff track and he should be able to take it up fully 2f from home (if not more) and come home as he likes.
You obviously rate Jan Vermeer, but I am not a big fan, and I would be very surprised, indeed, if he was good enough to win this.
So would I. It should be a cake walk for Workforce. But I would love to see Jan Vermeer come good as a 4yo.
Workforce at 10/11, huh?!!! That's seems very generous to me, for a horse who won the Derby and the Arc. The Dunlop horses are running in to form, so Elusive Pimpernel might be worth a small wager, but it isn't really a race to bet on.
Workforce @ 10/11 for an Derby & Arc winner would be a steal however he's back in distance and its his first run The SMS camp seem to be saying he will be in need of it too so not really something I'd take a chance on or a race to bet in. Good luck to anyone taking the price though!
Workforce is more of a staying 12f horse, he doesn't posses a real turn of foot, so I do believe he could be voulnerable over 10f particularly if the ground was quick! I know Workforce won the Derby on quick ground, but he was fortunate enough that the race was turned into a test of stamina by the pacemaker! He also has to conceed 7 pounds, so I dong fancy him atall, Jan Vermeer would be my pick
I think it is known that I don't bet but if I did I think 11/10 on is very generous. But if JV is in with a shot 1f out I'll be cheering him home. My wife and I saw JO Tobin as a 2yo at Newmarket on his début and he was magnificent but sadly didn't produce much at stud (that I am aware of). We all know JV's sire but his dam is Shadow Song is by Pennekamp out of Evening Air who is by J O Tobin out of the Secretariat mare Nellie Forbes. Despite my wish for J V to win, it is very tempting to have a bet on WF at those generous odds. I can't see him being beaten.
If WF doesn't run a stinker like in the King George then will probably win by at least 3+ lengths. Anyone know of any bookie offering some value bet by win distance?
My initial thoughts were that Workforce at 11/10 was huge, as other posters have eluded to the fact it is fto and only over 10f put me off some what. Not as big a certainty as it first looks but definitely worth a small plunge at the price imo. I'm on at Evs with Laddies.
STB....Don't forget the stinker he ran in the Dante too, finishing 2nd narrowly ahead of Coordinated Cut, and that was over 10f! I know excuses were given, but I've never been one to buy excuses
You told us Makfi lost his races because he couldn't run around a bend! To some thats an excuse...to some a valid reason! They gave a reason for his poor run in the Dante. He then p***ed the Derby! He ran a stinker in the King George - no real excuses given. They suggested one or two things but he came back to win the Arc. Some people just wont give certain horses any credit nor respect! He could lose tomorrow - if he does onto the next race...it doesn't make him a nag! If he wins then he's no Pegasus...onto the next race! IMO no horse will beat So You Think between 10-12f this season and he could go down as an all-time great but Workforce is still a top class animal!
My only concern about Workforce is whether two fast races on fast ground as a 3yo has done any lasting damage. Tomorrow's going is fast again and it depends if he's feeling it in the race. We will see. If he's happy on the ground I can't see the distance being a problem. If he isn't happy on the ground it could be a while before we see him again.
I've done a little preview of the Brigadier Gerard on my blog: http://tmarchhorseracing.blogspot.com/
Flyingbolt....Nope they are not excuses about Makfi, as the trainer has never said he wouldn't go round a bend, I just formed that opinion myself, because it's the only reasonable explanation for a horse finishing behind horses he had pissed all over on a straight course! The Workforce scenario you can believe the excuse about the bit slipping, or you can see it as his only start over 10f, were he was well and truly done for pace, though saying that there was no shame being beaten by Cape Blanco over 10f judging by his cracking run in the Irish Champion Stakes! The Dante was a slow tactical 10f race, the Derby was a strongly run 12f were stamina came into play, so I think it's perfectly logical to be wary about lumping on Workforce at 5/4 in a 10f race despite his exploits over 12f
Ron - His last race was on soft in the Arc - the Derby & KG runs on good to firm didn't seem to affect him there there should be OK? Maybe the run on fast in the Derby did affect him in the King George though? All guesswork though as its been and gone! The Arc will be the target again so whatever leads him safely to that - just wonder where down the line he'll meet So You Think and as you say when will the heavens open for a while to get softer ground? The concern tonite is SMS doesn't seem to be able to over-state enough how he feels he will need the run and clearly the drop in trip which makes makes up the risk? Shergar - Missing the point completely with what I'm saying as usual but whatever! As I say whatever happens tonight doesn't make him a nag nor Pegasus!
Paying too much attention to what trainers and jockeys say and making excuses for beaten horses, are the quickest ways to the poorhouse. Workforce is worth an absolute fortune at stud and Stoutie wouldn't be running him over the wrong trip or on good/firm ground (it's been raining all morning in London Town), if he didn't think the horse could cope with it. It's a long season and there are much bigger races to aim at, so there is just a chance that WF might need the run. He seems to be drifting (10/11 to 5/4 in places), so it's definitely not a race to get stuck into, but it should be a fascinating race to watch.
Kentucky....Funnily enough I don't believe Workforce would fetch "an absolute fortune" at stud, yes he's a Derby and Arc winner, but he would have needed to win a G1 over 10f or more preferably a mile aswell to be on high demand at stud! Breeders these days want a sire with speed, and lots of it, that's why STS is worth so much at stud, as he proved over a mile aswell that he had the speed! Workforce obviously would still fetch a few bob, but I don't think he would be worth as much as some might think, that could be one of the reasons why he has been allowed to race on at 4
As my regular readers will know (sorry, just had to include that famous phrase on here) I tend only to get involved financially at very, very occassional flat races. However Workforce is now 11-8.... 11-8! I'm no expert on flat form but the opposition looks weak enough to me, even reflecting the fact that he will need the race is this not become, dare I say it, value
