I donât think there is much in it between the euro horses int his.the ground as dried out to good donât think there can be any excuses there.distance as well shouldnât be a problem .the 2 main things I see to consider the most is the pace of the race and the track. The track is very tight been inside the dirt track which is only 1 mile round.the run âin is also short with just shy of 2f.so many of the euros will have had little or none experience on such a tight track and short run-in. 2nd is the pace.last year they ran at a crawl taking 1m16s for the first 6f ,thats very slow.in contrast the year before when conduit won it at churchill downs they took 1m9 for the first 6f,extremely fast thanks to a american horse who set a strong pace (was a pace setter on previous starts)and a fast overall time was achieved.the year before that,again thanks to oâbriens red rocks canyon they went to 6f in 1m11 ,still pretty fast early pace. Looking at the 4 american horses I cant see any leaders.o briens runs 2 but I donât think any will be sacrificed to help the other this time round.red rock canyon was to help soldier of fortune but had been used as a donkey all season.cant really see 1 of kalid abdullaâs been used to to set the race up for another. likely hood is a american horse will lead but at a slow to even pace at most. Sea moon. - no experience whatsoever around tight bends.5 runs all on straight or galloping tracks around bends.it was a pretty fast pace at york where he stayed on the best.found trouble in the st leger but ran a great race considering how firm the ground was compared to york.he would have a similar profile as conduit first time round as progressing from hcaps to a group win and a st leger run prior.conduit however had experience around tight tracks and got a fats pace.think both the track and likely slow pace would disadvantage him greatly int his as well as overall experience Await the dawn â things were going well for this one and a classic run was high on the agenda,but got sick after york and ended up here.difficult to think he can win his first group 1 from multiple group 1 winners on his first run back from sickness.theres also the pace.the juddmonte was run slow ,just half a hour after they had gone to fast in the great voltiguer for the ground conditions.when the sprint was on he was totally left behind by midday and twice over.he wasnât at his best that day cause of illness,but as dirt runners donât quicken like turf runners and they thought of him as a bc classic hope,the lack of pace also as to be a concern.on the plus side he was impressive at chester,but think this is too tough and like sea moon trying to win his first group 1. Midday â 3 tries against males sand 3 losses.apparently it was cecilâs idea to go for the turf instead of the fillys and mares,but announce was in that as well.cecil said last year he thought the track beat her.goodwood and york where she does well feature long home straights.one pattern ive also noticed is that she as never gone more than 2 losses without winning again but st nic holds her on there epsom form and srafina using cirrus de anges as well holds her on this years form.i think she could end up getting to the lead at some point but not holding on. St nicholas abbey â was totally out sprinted by sarfina in the arc trial and again in a different pace scenario in the arc wasnât good enough.you could though say the track will suit as hes 2 from 2 on a lefthanded tracks.in a moderate pace at epsom he won .also at ascot it wasnât that great so a even pace would be ideal and faster definitely better than slow if it wasnât evenly run. Sarafina- her sprinting ability is awesome.shes used to running in slow run races then taking the entire field out will a sharp blast in the final quarter.she was very impressive beating cirrus de anges at saint cloud as they went a crawl and he quickened up himself but she got him.when the field is small enough (9 or less) she is 5 from 6 wither her only loss on her seasonal debut this year in which she needed it.shes only 1 from 4 in larger fields.only ran on 3 tracks with saint cloud her best and that is lefthanded with a 2.5f run âin Sarafina should have the ideal pace for her and should go from the rear to to win this once in the home straight.dont think the track will inconvenience her.i think st nic and midday will do the next best for there respective owners.
Sarafina is the best horse in the field and should win for exactly the reasons you have stated.Midday to follow her home.
I'd be quite strong on Midday for this if she was just drawn a little better. I am sure that she is good enough to win against the boys but has just not had things go her way. If she was drawn 4/5 then i think she'd have a big shout and would be an EW bet. As it is i'm inclined to leave her alone. The fact that there is only a short break between here and Ascot is also a slight concern. I don't fancy Sea Moon on the track (though i understand he has been working very well), and neither of the O'Brien horses appeal particularly which leaves Sarafina as the one to beat and a worthy favourite. I think that the American horses might be good enough to provide something of a shock. Deans Kitten has been in behind Cape Blanco twice which on the bare form would leave him a little way behind the European challenge but on home turf it might not be insurmountable. I also think Brilliant Speed is interesting. He ran in both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont so was near the top of the tree on Dirt. He is now switched to Turf, having started his career on it, and won well first time before finding Noseda's Western Aristocrat too good last time. That was over 9f and i reckon that the step up in trip might help him make the necessary improvement. I'm not saying they'll win but i think it's dangerous to assume that this is Europe the whole way and i think the US challenge could be being dismissed too easily. We all saw last year how the race can fall apart and whilst it is likely to be something of an afterthought for the European challenge, it looks like the target for the home team. They might be dangerous at big prices, just a thought.
It is hard to fancy any of the American contenders in the Turf. Their odds with the British bookies probably are a fair reflection of their chances unless all the Europeans fail to take to the course. Drawing lines with Cape Blanco's European form is total folly but Deans Kitten is probably the best chance for the home team. Sarafina is clearly the form pick and if the race is run to suit she ought to atone for her Arc flop (when she was badly drawn). There is no reason to believe that Midday will take to the course any better than last year, so whilst I am a big fan, I cannot see her collecting. St Nicholas Abbey is held on form by Sarafina given that he was beaten fair and square in the Prix Foy and didn't finish very far in front of her in the Arc from a much more favourable draw. Sea Moon could be the fly in the ointment as his St Leger finishing position was not as good as it could have been; and he does not have too many miles on the clock and is open to improvement.
