Handicaps are a nightmare for backers. When you consider that "expert" handicappers assess each horse and allocate weights so that they should all dead heat. How many races finish anything like close? How often does the "well in" horse get unplaced? Why are some won in a procession with the fav down the field? Because they are a bloody fiddle you might say. But "It's more complicated than that".
Some horses run just as well under 12 stone as they do under 11 stone and some horses run no better with 10 stone than they do under 11 stone. Not all horses have the same weight carrying ability, due to their build. A horse needing strong handling carrying 12 stone with a 10 stone jockey could quite easily run a totally different race to if it had a 12stone jockey aboard. Some horses might prefer a heavy/light jockey. Some will definitely go better with a jockey with "soft" hands. They will probably feel more "up for it" on some days, feeding programs will affect performance, stress will affect performance (eg away from normal surroundings/company etc etc. So, on what basis do we pick our "winner"?
Bloody nightmare. I bet a large % of handicaps are won by horses that are several pounds below the top rated for the race
We need information that isn't readily accessible nor easily derived. Can we detect any common themes relating to a horse's best and worst performances? Can we detect the reasons (other than injury) as to their different performances (track conditions and race distances are the easy part)?
Give me system that takes everything into account, not just the form book and the weights and I might start backing in handicaps. Otherwise I'll stay well clear thank you
Goodnight all. Sweet dreams.
Well that might work, dreaming the winner. If so, let us all know.
Some horses run just as well under 12 stone as they do under 11 stone and some horses run no better with 10 stone than they do under 11 stone. Not all horses have the same weight carrying ability, due to their build. A horse needing strong handling carrying 12 stone with a 10 stone jockey could quite easily run a totally different race to if it had a 12stone jockey aboard. Some horses might prefer a heavy/light jockey. Some will definitely go better with a jockey with "soft" hands. They will probably feel more "up for it" on some days, feeding programs will affect performance, stress will affect performance (eg away from normal surroundings/company etc etc. So, on what basis do we pick our "winner"?
Bloody nightmare. I bet a large % of handicaps are won by horses that are several pounds below the top rated for the race
We need information that isn't readily accessible nor easily derived. Can we detect any common themes relating to a horse's best and worst performances? Can we detect the reasons (other than injury) as to their different performances (track conditions and race distances are the easy part)?
Give me system that takes everything into account, not just the form book and the weights and I might start backing in handicaps. Otherwise I'll stay well clear thank you
Goodnight all. Sweet dreams.
Well that might work, dreaming the winner. If so, let us all know.
