big list of all grand national horses and race form comparison

Hey all,

I‘ve been working on a massive spreadsheet for the national with race form versus horse form for each runner (which I do every year), and I’ve finally finished the results. I’ve checked it’s ok to make a massive thread so here is the info. Basically it fits each horse against general race form as follows:

Trends used are:
Age 9/10 (stretch to 8-11)
Weight 10-7 – 11st (+3/6lbs but less importance on less than 10-7 this year)
Entered GN or a nat’l before
Odds changed (I added this one)
Official rating [in square brackets] 136-157
Decent trainer/jockey
Top 6 last start
3-6 runs this season
Form over 3m+ and form over 26f+
10+ chases
3 career falls or less
Run last 60 days i.e. since 15/02
Winnings 100k or more (although i used chase lifetime earnings figures in error but gives an idea)
Nationality (but most are irish bred or at least trained)
**What I haven’t used on the whole is ground (apart from a couple) and whether they’ve hurdled this season** some of you might know these off the top of your head.

Note:
Where I’ve put e.g. ‘av 24f’ that’s approximate average distance over all races last couple of years and can include hurdles

The list goes from generally a lot of positives fitting the trends to more negative at the bottom. It’s not exact but they’re put together with similar others, plus 3 sections at the bottom for those outside the usual age range which are still worth considering.

I’ve not added an opinion, just matched trends v horse history, so the order isn’t my fave to my worst, I’ve just put them in some kind of general order. My idea of a neutral, e.g. jockey, might be someone else’s idea of a positive.

Apologies for the shorthand, takes a bit of reading but hopefully it makes sense. And if anyone wants the actual original spreadsheet please shout me.

Here goes..

 

Positives:

1. Synchronised [167] IRE gloucs trained
+ve: 9yo, odds shortening, won mid nat’l ‘10& ‘11 PU ire nat’l 2011 but had run mid national a month before which could explain. Trainer jj o’neill, jockey AP.
Consistent form over 3m+ 1,5,6,1,3,P,7,3,1,1, average distance 27f
Good form over 26f+ 1,1,3,P,1 [the P is the ire nat’l above]
Won last race 27f 16/03 [CGC]
4 season runs 7,3,1,1
Only one career fall and one P
High earner 478k total inc CGC winnings
-ve: 11-10 top weight, only 8 career chases
Neutral: long enough to recover from gold cup?

2. Ballabriggs [160] IRE cheshire trained
+ve: won GN 2011. Trainer Donald mccain jockey j maguire.
4th last start although only 23f 03/03, 14 career chases no falls although one SU
Form over 3 miles+ 1,1,1,1
Form over 26f+ 1,1,1
High earner 600k
-ve: average distance 24f, only 1 run this season
Neutral: 11yo, weight 11-9

4. Neptune Collonges [159] FR trainer somerset
+ve: 2nd last start 18/02 to giles cross in GN trial 28f, trainer paul nicholls, form over 26f+ 1,8,6,P,2, 20 career chases 2 falls 1 BD, 690k earnings
4 runs this season P,4,2,2[P was first run after summer break 27f]
-ve: ?
Neutral: 11yo, weight 11-6, jockey daryl Jacob, form over 3m+ b,11,1,8,6,p,4,2,2

16. According to Pete [147] IRE
+ve: 2nd yorks GN 2011, 2nd last start but 23f 03/03, 5 runs this season, form over 3m+ 11,7,2,2,3,7,1,1,2, form 26f+ 2,7 averages 26f, only one fall 2007, 97k earnings
-ve: 11yo
Neutral: weight 10-12, Malcolm Jefferson/ harry Haynes

11. Chicago Grey [150] IRE
+ve: 9yo, odds shortening, 8th scot nat’l 2011, Gordon Elliott/??, 2nd last start 20f 18/02, 5 season runs U,3,7,3,2, form over 3m+ 10 total: 1,F,2,5,1,8,U,3,7,3,2, form over 26f+ 1,8,7, av distance 27f, 15 chases, one fall nov ’10 1xUR 2 out oct ’11, 100k earnings, any old ground
-ve:
Neutral: weight 10-13, p carberry

 

Small negatives:

34. Giles Cross [138] IRE
+ve: 10yo weight 10-1, last start won GN trial 28f 18/02, 2nd in welsh nat’l x2, victor dartnall/p brennan, 3 season runs 1,2,1, form over 3m+ 1,2,3,P,2,2,1,2,1, form over 26f+ 2,3,P,2,2,1,2,1, 12 chases av 28f, only 1xF but 3xP, 115k earnings
-ve:
Neutral: has come 1st/2nd on GS ground twice but form on this ground is 1,P,P,2,P

15. West End Rocker [137 down from 140] IRE
+ve: entered 2011 but BD 6th, alan king/wayne Hutchinson, won becher chase 26f 03/12, places over 24f, 14 career chases av 28f, never fallen [3xP 1xBD], 107k earnings
-ve: 2 races this season PU,1[becher]; PU scot nat’l ’09, PU GN trial 2011, form over 26f+ P[hamp],1,1,p,b,p, hasn’t run last 60 days
Neutral: weight 10-12, ground – needs rain (not sure where I read that)

30. Becauseicouldntsee [140] IRE/IRE trained
+ve: 9yo weight 10-3, odds shortening, 2nd last start 26f 15/03, 4 season runs 3,F[2 out],2,2, earnings 73k
-ve: 3 career falls (max allowed for trends)
Neutral: entered before but fell 2011, n f glynn/ d j condon, form over 3m+ 2,2,f,6,f,2, form over 26f+ 2[36f],f[GN],2, total chases 11

23. The Midnight Club [145] IRE
+ve: 6th GN 2011, trainer w p mullins, form over 3m+ 3,3,2,1,6[36f],b,9, one fall dec ‘09
-ve: 9th last start 27f 16/03
Neutral: 11yo weight 10-8, 4 season runs bd[hurdle],4,3,9, form over 26f+ 6,9, career chases 12, av distance 24f, earnings 72k, p townend

26. Sunnyhillboy [142] IRE J P mcmanus
+ve: 9yo weight 10-5, 3rd ire nat’l 2011, won last start 26f 15/03, form over 26f+ 3,1, 12 chases av25, one career F, one P, 96k earnings
-ve: 4 runs season 7,P,9,1
Neutral: jj o’neill/r mclernon, form over 3m+ F,3,7,9,1

 

Not straightforward experience or form:

35. Midnight Haze [137] BRIT/gloucs trained
+ve: 10yo, 6th last start 31f 13/03, form over 3m+ 1,1,p,1,6, form over 26f+ 1,1,6, av distance run 26f, no falls but 2xP - last for blood vessel jan ‘11,
-ve: never entered before, only 2 season runs 1,6, only 25k earnings
Neutral: kim bailey/sean quinlan, 10 career chases

27. Killyglen [141] IRE
+ve: 10yo weight 10-4,won last start 26f 17/03, 6 season runs 3,10,3,4,1, 14 chases av 26f, only 1 career F but 4xP, 88k earnings
-ve: form over 26f+ P,F
Neutral: entered 2011 fell 4 out, s r b crawford/r m power, form over 3m+ P,2,P,5,6,F,17,3,3,4,1

14. Shakalakaboomboom [144] IRE
+ve: odds shortened, Henderson/geraghty, 2nd last start 25f 11/03, 3 runs season 1,2,2, never fallen, 78k earnings
-ve: never entered before, only 9 career chases av 23f, 5 races in total over 3m+ only 1 at 26f but won it
Neutral: 8yo, weight 10-12
Distance? Experience – only racing for 3ish years

5. Calgary Bay [151] IRE oxon trained
+ve: 9yo, won last race 24f, 4 runs this season 8,5,1,1, 20 career chases, career earnings 162k
-ve: fell 4th fence 2011, form over 26f+ 6,F, hasn’t run in last 60 days [28/01]
Neutral: weight 11-6, trainer Henrietta knight jockey dominic elsworth, form over 3m+ 6,4,5,6,F,1[F is last GN, its only career fall]

7. Planet of Sound [158] BRIT
+ve: trainer Philip hobbs jockey Richard Johnson, form over 3m+/26f+ 2nd [27f hennessy GC], 3rd [last start 25/02 24f], 283k earnings, fell once feb ’10
-ve: never entered nationals or these kinds of distances, 2 runs this season 2,3
Neutral: 11-5, 14 chases av 24f,

6. Alpha Beat [158] IRE / brit trained
+ve: 201k earnings, 15 total chases
-ve: never entered before, PU last start 25f 25/02, season runs 1,U,P, form over 3m+ P,1,4,6,7,1,P, form over 26f+ one race 4th 32f chelt march ’11, only one career F but 2xP 2xU one of each last two races, av distance 23f
Neutral: 8yo weight 11-5, john joseph hanlon/d n Russell

22. Treacle [132]
+ve: t j taafe / a lynch, 3rd last start 24f 12/02, 4 season runs 1,4,2,3, form over 3m+ P,5,1,4,2,3, earnings 137k
-ve: never entered before, only once over 26f+ came 5th may ’11 30f chase
Neutral: 11yo weight 10-8, 15 chases, av distance 24f

32. Swing Bill [140]
+ve: form over 3m+ 2,5,2,1,3,P,2,17, 19 career chases av 23f, only 1xF 1xP
-ve: PU mid GN twice, 17th last start 26f kim muir 15/03, form over 26f+ 2,17, only 57k earnings, FR but devon trained
Neutral: 11yo, weight 10-3, d pipe / c o’farrell, 5 season runs 1,3,P,2,17

10. Junior [153]
+ve: odds shortened, david pipe/tom scu, 2nd last start 25/02 26f, form over 3m 2,4,1,3,1,3,2,1,8,2, form 26f+ 3,1,2, no career falls, 9yo
-ve: never entered before, only 8 career chases av 24f, 56k earnings
Neutral: weight 11-2, 2 runs this season 8,2

40. Neptune Equester [132] FR? Yorks trained
+ve: 11th scot nat’l 2011, 5th last start 26f 03/03, 6 season runs 6: 3,1,5,12,4,5, form over 3m+ 2,1,1,f,3,11/3,1,5,12,4,5, form over 26f+ 2,11,1,12,5, 17 chases
-ve: started racing at 7
Neutral: brian Ellison/felix de giles, 2 career falls no pu no bd, 46k earnings, FR yorks trained, 9yo

18. Always Right [147] IRE
+ve: weight 10-10, 3rd scot nat’l 2011, 12 chases av 26/7f, one fall 2009
-ve: PU last start 18/02 28f, 3 runs this season 1,P,P, form over 3m+ f,11,2,1,3,P,P[GN trial], form over 26f+ 11,3,P,
Neutral: 10yo, wade/reveley, 71k earnings

 

Little/unknown 26f+ form:

3. Weird Al [164] IRE cheshire trained
+ve: 9yo, trainer Donald mccain,
-ve: weight 11-8, never entered a national before and PU last two gold cups. Not top 6 last start [PU CGC] within last 60 days 16/03
Form over 26f+ 8,P,P, only 9 career chases
Neutral: jockey timmy murphy, form over 3 miles+ 1,8,3,1,3,P[CGC], average distance 25f

13. Seabass [144] IRE
+ve: odds shortened, won all 5 races this season, form over 3m+ 3,1 &2nd PtP, 12 chases in total, only fallen once jan ’10, 117k earnings
-ve: never entered before, 1st last start but 16f soft ground, 0 races over 26f+ and only averages 21f
Neutral: weight 10-12, 9yo, tm walsh/Katie walsh
!Distance

12. Tatenen [150]
+ve: run in 20+ chases [although av 22f], only one fall 2009, 181k earnings
-ve: never entered before, 5th last start over 22f 18/02, only 5 races over 3m+ 9,U,P,3,7, av 22f, no races over 26f+
Neutral: weight 10-13, 8yo, trainer Richard rowe jockey a thornton, 3 runs this season 7,1,5; 2xUR 1xP 2009/10, French but trainer sussex

17. On his own [125] IRE
+ve: odds shortened, mullins/r walsh, 2 runs season: BD,1 - won last start 24f sft/hvy 26/01
-ve: never entered before, PU NH challenge cup 32f 2011, form over 3m+ 1,4,P [32f], 1, BD, 1, form over 26f+: PU, lacks (good) experience, 8yo
Neutral: weight 10-11

25. Arbor Supreme [125 down from 143]
+ve:
-ve: not run last 60 days 10th last start 24f 14/12, 2 season runs 6,10, form over 3m+ u,u,9,p,2,f,10, form over 26f+ u[36f],p[30f],f[36f]
Neutral: 10yo weight 10-7, entered before UR ’10 F ’11, trainer j j o’neill/m p walsh

9. Deep Purple [154]
+ve: won London nat’l but is only race over 26f, form over 3 miles F,1,4,3,1 and a P when breaking blood vessel KG 2009, only 1 career fall [last start 25/02], 240k earnings
-ve: fell last start
Neutral: 11yo, weight 11-3, evan Williams/Jamie moore, 2 runs this season 1,F

19. Cappa Bleu [147] IRE
+ve: 10yo weight 10-10, odds shortened, only form over 26f+ is 3rd welsh nat’l dec ’11 Hvy, 3rd last start 24f 18/02, 3 runs season 1,3,3, form over 3m+ 1,F,2,P,1,3,3, only 2 falls: PtP & hennessy ‘09
-ve: only 6 career chases av 25f, 58k earnings, despite being 10 only raced since 2008
Neutral: evan Williams/p moloney

28. Quiscover Fontaine [126 down from 142 4 starts ago]
+ve: weight 10-4, 4th irish nat’l 2011 29f its only run over 3m+, one career fall
-ve: 16th last start 16f 28/01, 3 season runs 9,1,16, only 7 chases av distance 20f, 29k earnings, French although IRE trained
Neutral: 8yo, mullins/casey

20. Rare Bob [145 down from 150] IRE
+ve: 10yo weight 10-9, 5th becher dec ’11, 3rd last start 24f 11/03, no falls 1xUR 1xPU, 177k earnings
-ve: form over 3m+ 3,3,P,8,P,U,3,4,5,5,3 av 24f no form over 26f+
Neutral: d t hughes/b cooper, 5 runs season 4,5,16,5,3

 

outside age range

7yo

21. Organised Confusion [145] IRE / fr bred
+ve: jockey nina carberry who won irish nat’l on this horse 2011 but only form over 3m+, earnings 143k
-ve: 7yo, never entered before, 12 chases but av 18f, 2 career falls one over 21f 28/01
Neutral: weight 10-8, trainer a l t moore, 5th last start 18f 10/03


38. Viking Blond [139]
+ve: 5th last start 24f 18/02, no falls, 2xPU
-ve: PU welsh nat’l, 7k earnings, FR gloucs trained, 7yo
Neutral: nigel T D / brian hughes, 5 season runs 1,4,3,p,5, form over 3m+ 1,2,p,6,2,3,13,7,16,1,4,3,p,5, form over 26f+ 2,2,p


29. Tharawaat [132 down from 141] IRE
+ve: Gordon Elliott/b t o’connell, one career fall 1xUR 1xP, 12 chases
-ve: 7yo, never entered before, 7th last start 20f 25/02, earnings 50k, never run over 26f+, av 21f
Neutral: weight 10-4

12yo+

36. Vic Venturi [145 from 155] IRE
+ve: entered before hamp UR 2010 BD 2011, 27 chases, av 24f, 215k earnings
-ve: 12th last start 24f 12/02, 12yo
Neutral: d t hughes/harry skelton, 3 season runs 1,1,12, form over 3m+ 15,1,u,7,4,4,b,2,1,1,12, form over 26f+ u,4,b[to 2011 – 24f since], 1p, 1u,1bd

37. In Compliance [137] IRE / ire trained
+ve: entered 2011 13th, 3rd last start 26f 26/03, career chases 23 av distance 23 plus GN, no career falls but 2xUR 2xPU one of each end ’11 over 20f, 180k earnings.
-ve: 12yo
Neutral: weight 10-0, d t hughes/l aspell, season runs P,3, form over 3m+ 5,13[GN],3, form over 26f+ 13[GN],3

31. State of Play [142] FR / welsh trained
+ve: form in GN ’09-‘11 4,3,4, career chases 17 in total, no career falls but 1xp[hennesy], 418k earnings
-ve: 12yo, only runs in GN now and nothing else apart from ’09 hennessy where PU
Neutral: weight 10-3, evan Williams/n fehily

24. Mon Mome [145 down from 161/50] FR brit trained hereford
+ve: 744k earnings inc GN 2009
-ve: 12yo, entered before won 2009 fell 2010 PU GN trial 18/02, 12th last start 13/03 25f
Neutral: venetia Williams/a coleman, career 3xUR 4xPU 2 of which jan/feb ‘12

13yo

8. Black Apalachi [154] IRE
+ve: entered before UR ’09 2nd ’10, d t hughes/d o’reagan, 421k earnings
-ve: 13yrs old
Neutral: weight 11-3, only 1 season run but 2nd 25f 25/02, form over 3m+ 17,2,2,2, form over 26f+ f,2,p,1,u,2 but has had 2 years off

 

reserves / non runners as at thurs in case they run

41. RES Any Currency [131] IRE
+ve: form over 3m+ 5,4,3,2,3,P,4,7, form over 26f+ 4,2,3,P,7, 12 career chases, av 27f, no fall, 1xP
-ve: last start 7th 25f 28/01, only 48k earnings
Neutral: 9yo weight 9-8, 3rd London nat’l dec’11 but PU welsh nat’l 3 weeks later, m Keighley/ap cawley, 7th last start 26f 28/01, 4 season runs 3,P,4,7

43. RES Abbeybraney [128] IRE
+ve: 3rd last start 23f 03/03, 13 chases, av 26f,
-ve: fell becher chase 26f, form over 3m+ p,f,3, form over 26f+ p,f, only 51k earnings
Neutral: 11yo weight 9-5, George bewley/ryan mania, 4 season runs f,p,3,3, only 1 career fall but becher 12/11

33. RES Postmaster [139] BR/US/welsh trained
+ve: 10yo, no career falls although 5xP 2UR
-ve: never entered before, no jockey, only 1 season run over 20f although won it 28/02, no form over 26f+
Neutral: tim Vaughan, form over 3m+ p,2,p,2,6,1, 24 career chases, av 24f, 41k earnings, weight 10-2

42. RES Our Island [130] IRE
+ve: 6th welsh nat’l dec ’11, 8th last start 32f 14/03 chelt, only 1 career fall
-ve: 7yo, no jockey, only 9k earnings, 7 career chases
Neutral: weight 9-7, tim Vaughan, form over 3m+ 1,1,7,4,2,9,2,6,5,8, form over 26f+ 6,8

44. RES Smoking Aces [126] IRE/ IRE trained
+ve: 8yo, 4th cork nat’l, 6th GN trial punch, 4th last start 24f 11/03, form over 26f+ 4,1,6, no falls ever, 13 career chases
-ve: only 19k earnings
Neutral: weight 9-5, trainer t j taafe, 6 season runs 3,4,1,11,6,4, form over 3m+ 6,4,5,4,1,11,6,4

NR Le Beau Bai [140] NO JOCKEY
+ve: 9yo weight 10-3, won welsh nat’l dec ’11, 3rd GN trial last start 28f 18/02, been in 17 chases, av 26/7f, no career falls
-ve: 4xPU 2 of which in mid GN and southern national nov ‘11
Neutral: Richard lee/??, 6 season runs 11,p,7,1,1,3, form over 3m+ 1,3,p,7,2,15,4,3,p,11,p,7,1,1,3, form over 26f+ 3,p,4,3,p,p,1,3

NR Always Waining [110 down from 140 3 starts ago] IRE
+ ve: one race over 26f+ 4th becher dec ’11, 33 chases av 26f, 200k earnings
-ve: last start 9th 24f 24/03, 5 season runs 8,4,4,11,9, form over 3m+ 8,11,7,11,4,8,4,11,9
Neutral: 11yo weight 10-3, peter bowen / t o’brien, career Fx2 Px8

NR Saddlers Storm [124 down from 136]
not typed out NR

NR Ballyvesey
not typed out NR

 

that's all of it! if it helps any. can't believe i typed all that, now i'll have a beer

 

Well done mate.

 

Very interesting thanks a lot for that. And well done for having the patience to type it all out!!

 

Absolutley love this, great work!

I really fancy Giles Cross in this one - did well in the Welsh and he's never fallen. Worth fiver each way I reckon, and he's a small neg in this EPIC analysis.

 

As Neptune Coll, Chicago Grey and According To Pete are the ones that im looking at this sorts of helps me along with backing them... Your right, its only in your opinion, but the detail youve gone into for each and every runner is commendable...

Great work Pepito... You deffo desevrve a drink after this...

 

Well done Petito and thanks for sharing.

 

Great Work mate..

Deserve a and a

 

thanks all. glad it's useful

i quite fancy giles cross myself and i'd normally not take ground into account so perhaps i should stick to ignoring it. and good old neptune collonges, would be great to see him do well.

one thing i did find out by chance is harry haynes, riding according to pete, has never ridden in a national before i don't think. i'm not sure how important that is.

off to watch today's now..