Saturday sees the renewal of the Group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock Park. There has been a little inconsistency in the top sprinters, and also only small discrepancies between Group 1 and Group 3 performances. Of the older horses, Deacon Blues seems to stand out, but it could well be a three year old which takes the spoils. Below is a quick summary of the horses I see as the main contenders. Dream Ahead. Was eye-catching in winning the July Cup, but how good was that contest? The form seems to be devalued by the close proximity of Hitchens (third) â and the fact that, out of the whole field of 16 runners, only Libranno has won since. Since then he was only seventh when a hot favourite over 7 furlongs in France. Personally, I think he is a poor price and should be taken on. Deacon Blues. This 4 year old is at the top of his game. After winning the Wokingham, he has sauntered home at Newbury and a Group 3 at The Curragh. It will be very significant if Johnny Murtagh is released by John Oxx to come over and ride him- instead of riding for his retainer at Leopardstown. If he does ride him, he will probably start favourite and has a first rate chance. Society Rock.James Fanshawe has already booked Pat Cosgrave to ride this Golden Jubilee winner, but I feel that Deacon Blues (riderless at the moment) is obviously the one to fear- even though Society Rock finished ahead of Wootton Bassett, Dream Ahead, and Genki, when second over 7 furlongs at Deauville . Wootton Bassett.Having his first run since being unplaced behind Frankel in the St James Palace at Ascot, he led to the furlong marker in the Deauville 7 furlong race. Now back to 6 furlongs- the distance over which he has never lost- he makes quite a bit of appeal at 16/1. Bewitched. After three good wins in Group company, she was made a warm favourite for Society Rockâs Golden Jubilee, but her poor showing was too bad to be true. After the race the Dansili filly was found to be lame, and I feel we must forget that run. Charles OâBrien has a very high opinion of her, and it is significant that he has not waited to see if normal jockey, Johnny Murtagh, will ride her; or Deacon Blues; or stay at Leopardstown. He has booked Richard Hughes for the ride. Summary. Personally I feel the winner will come from the above five, even though Delegator, Hoof It, Genki, and Bated Breath all have good form over six furlongs. Whether Murtagh rides him or not, Deacon Blues looks really on the upgrade and could easily win it. However, I feel the real value lies with Wootton Bassett (16/1) and my recommended Each Way bet, Bewitched at 20/1.What do other members think?
Do not underestimate Bewitched at 20/1 if the ground is easy. Hugely talented and still improving.Her win over Zoffany at L'town was facile and on g/f going.She doesn't really have the pedigree of a 6f horse but when the ground is easy she has a sustained increase in pace that is very effective.Also interesting that Coolmore are persevering over this trip as I believe she could be competitive at a mile in the Matron stakes,but then they are well stacked in the filly division at that trip. When JM got off her at The Curragh,prior to her ascot success,he confidently articulated that she was considerably better than G3 class.I agree and had a decent bet on her in the Diadem(may have been in one of Supreme's compo's in old 606!!..)when she won easily. I agree Dream Ahead is a class act,but his last performance,and lack of a bonafide excuse,renders him vulnerable.He does,however,remain the colt to beat. At the current odds,I'm prepared to watch the weather and play on Bewitched. I do hope if it's firm,my mates horse,Hitchens runs up to his July Cup form. Fascinating contest.
Tam,didn't actually fully read through your post before replying. Interesting you agree with Bewitched.Do you concur with my trip/ground contention? I really think this,like most G1 sprints this year,is weak aside from the excellent Dream Ahead.
Re Wootton Bassett,I don't think he has trained on,or indeed recovered from the severe beating that Hanagan administered to him at Longchamp in the Grand Criterium. How that did not result in a suspension is beyond decent taste.Hope he comes back though,likeable and tough horse.
Dexter, yes, I basically agree with you and, although Bewitched has won on all types of going, a bit of cut will help over 6 furlongs. I also think Haydock should suit her- it's not an easy track and she's won here before. You may be right about Wootton Bassett not training on, but he finished ahead of Dream Ahead in France, and I feel he certainly has a chance. Deacon Blues is a big danger- there's no telling how much he's improved this year, and he absolutely slaughtered his field in Ireland last time.
I meant the G3 Bengough Stakes,not the Diadem which is now a G2..subconsciously promoting Bewitched already!! I assume the Bengough Stakes is named in honour of the Colonel,quite right too.
With the weather forecast, it may be best to leave this until Saturday morning. If the rain arrives on Friday night or Saturday morning, the complexion of the race can change in a few hours. Some want rain and others do not. Dream Ahead has only run one decent race this season when he collected the slowly-run July Cup so I would be looking elsewhere. The French filly that won the six-and-a-half furlong Prix Maurice De Gheest was dropping back in trip but clearly her stamina helped in the soft ground and the British/Irish raiders were strung out like washing. Sole Power is one of the ones that needs it to stay dry and there are doubts about him over six furlongs. Delegator has been a disappointment (when he has actually run) since his Duke Of York Stakes win in May. If it rains, Frankie can head straight to Leopardstown! Society Rock will need lots of rain as his Golden Jubilee win and his Deauville second were both on soft ground.
Apologies for replying to my own comments, but it has just occurred to me that the band of rain that is heading our way (according to the BBC weather forecast) has to cross Ireland to get here. If it rains at Leopardstown as well as Haydock, Frankie will not need to go over for the Irish Champion Stakes because Snow Fairy will be scratched. Yet again a top Group 1 contest is going to be reduced to a handful of runners and, with So You Think currently trading at 1/3, it does not look like being much of an event.
No strong opinions from this correspondent re this heat but what I will say is that no way should my old fave, Tiddliwinks, be priced up as a 66/1 shot by those bookie chappies. That is way, way too big.
I think we may be in for a suprise- Bewitched is a huge price for a winner of good group company and has hughes on board- I have written off the jubliee and I think she will come up trumps!
