A cracking entry, with lots of high grade, potential Cheltenham winners in the field. You'd have to think that current Supreme fav Irving would HAVE to win this to be taken seriously at Cheltenham, but this race IS a handicap, and although he gets weight from Champion Hurdle bound Melodic Rendezvous, he similarly has to give weight to some decent performers. Nichols has entered 2 others apart from Irving - Irish Saint and Far West. Henderson has 4 entered - Rolling Star, Gibb River, Vasco Du Ronceray and the disappointing Snake Eyes, who went to Ireland for a change of scenery recently - it certainly wasn't to try to win a race. Hendo won this last year with My Tent Or Yours, but I don't see anything of that quality here. Jonjo has 3 entered, Pipe a couple, Mullins a single, but intriguing entry, Smashing, who has won his last 2 but possibly not against anything of note, and a sprinkling of single entries, including Melodic Rendezvous, Act of Kalanisi, Chris Pea Green and a couple that interest me at longish odds, Recession Proof and old favourite Cheltenian. I hope that most of these stand their ground as this makes an interesting and intriguing puzzle as things stand. I can't decide between a few of these, yet common sense seems to scream - IRVING!!!
I have been having a look at this race. Am hoping Melodic Rendezvous runs, i'm pretty sure they will run now after the abandonment of Saturdays hurdle races at Sandown, as the trainer said they won't wait about for the champion hurdle because he favors soft ground so much. Will have enough weight to carry but is the class act in the race in my opinion and horses have run well in the race off a lot of weight before. Although has a lot of trends to overcome. Am tempted by 16/1 but am reluctant to bet ante post without hearing any trainer comments. Far West is being aimed at the Imperial cup i think i heard the other day, so looks like Irving will run. Mullins had 5 entered and said they will decide late in the week which one runs, so the fact they only have one left now suggests Smashing will be coming over. Don't know much about the horse. Regarding Snake Eyes, i think he needs better ground. Can see him popping up at a big price sometime. Will probably run, but will have no chance if its soft or worse.
Just read that, lol. Apparently Far west could be rerouted now. This race is pretty much a non starter from an ante post point of view.
Unfortunately no longish odds about Cheltenian - 10s about the best you can get. Tight buggers, I fancy his chances in this although Irish Saint looks a good thing
Speaking of Imperial Cup... Regal Encore is on course to run there. They obviously fancy the Cup and festival double(Bonus £££). Irish Saint appeared to relish a step up in trip so id be unsure if they will run him in this. Montbazon looks very interesting if he takes his chance on his comeback from injury. 4th in a pretty decent supreme 2 years ago and would be receiving nearly a stone from Melodic Rendezvous
The way Irish Saint cruised to victory lto on the same kind of ground has to be a very likeable factor. Del Arca is a another likeable sort the way he won the Greatwood with such ease. Another pick Melodic Rendezvous- surely he is not going to run in this his he? But he if he does, forgive the xmas hurdle but the way he beat Ptit Zig he was back to form and the form reads well if he runs 14/1 e/w is a steal of a price and he is a class above most of these, even with the weight he will have on top look at the past few winners Zarkandar & MTOY both run off a mark of 149 and 151 so in recent years, horses on top of the weights do well.
I like Montbazon too wardy but cant see him even lining up on this ground. It will be interesting to see who Jonjo legs up on ALAIVAN. Potentially well treated on his best form and will love the ground. A likely outsider at 40-1 near the bottom of the handicap.
Well he was pulled on Saturday, I didn't see the reasons, but presumably not injury? But with only 10-3 to carry it's certainly attractive. Even if AP can't do the weight 40-1 looks too big if he's over whatever ailed him at the weekend.
Alan King said a week or so ago that he was âvery reluctantâ to run Montbazon in something as competitive as the âBetfairâ on his return after 23 months off the track. The âhope of the countyâ looks ridiculously well treated off 140 but I do agree that this heat may not be the one for him after so long off. Re Snake Eyes the race for him this term, as Iâve said before, is I believe the âboys raceâ at the Festival. Is another that is potentially very well handicapped. Especially, now that he has seemingly learnt to settle. Being too free in his early races severely impacted on the performances that the old boy was able to deliver.
That Alaivan really is interesting. Sticky, old boy, you may have highlighted another notable one, methinks. I see that when trained on the level, by old boy John Oxx, he was a winner at Listed level and was perched as highly as 106, in that sphere, so the class is obviously there. Then he went to Eddie O’Grady and won 4 out of 9 including at Listed level, again, and then Grade 2. Was then off the track for 18 months before resurfacing at ‘Jackdaws’ (in the interim McManus paid £150,000 for him). And Alaivin is now on a figure 15 pounds below what he was in his ‘O’Grady pomp’. Did nothing in his first 2 outings for O’Neill but last time was Eyecatching with a capital ‘E’. I've never been O'Neill's greatest fan, he's certainly no Mr Henderson, but when he gets a good 'un occasionally he knows what to do with it. 40/1 does look massive for Alavain but it might be worth waiting 24 hours to see if he's declared to run on Thursday in an alternative engagement he's got at Huntingdon.
I've selected Alaivan in my hedging bets the last twice he was due to run. If I don't select him at 40/1 he's bound to win.
Nicky's waxing lyrical about Rolling Star according to the owner in the Racing Post. Getting to the point though that this beast has to win a decent pot soon as he's been pretty expensive to follow thus far.
I have always felt Rolling Star might develop into a horse capable of running in a Champion Hurdle (winning it is another thing altogether) but he needs better spring ground where he can use his strong travelling style. Given the weather, I imagine Newbury will be a fair old test?
Alan King seems to have had a change of heart somewhat and is now saying that Montbazon, ‘the hope of the county’, will ‘probably’ run in the Betfair providing he works well this morning and his ‘tracheal wash’ is 100%. He does add though that if he goes here it will be because there is almost no other alternative at the moment and therefore the ‘highly reluctant’ comment still applies. The ‘I will...I won’t...I will’ approach hardly inspires confidence and you do get the impression that whatever Montbazon does on Saturday he will come on enormously for the run. I really feel that he could still, in time, be a Champion Hurdle horse and off 140, if on his A game, is thrown in, at the weekend, but reading between the lines the Betfair for Montbazon is merely a ‘prep’, a ‘warm up’, his ‘Hors d'oeuvre’ for other targets later in the campaign. Plus, those bookie chappies rate his stablemate, Vendor, a more likely winner. Alavian continues to plummet in the market, people, and he’s as low as 14’s now.
The age stats are against Alaivan: "all bar one of the last 17 winners have been aged seven or younger" (courtesy of Richard Dunwoody's column on the Sporting Life website).
