Betfair Chase

Betfair Chase coming up this weekend and eight stand their ground after the 5 day declarations, with exciting Novice Grand Crus, unsurprisingly, not among them. Still looks a more than decent renewal of the race and it will be most interesting to see how Long Run fares against the 'challengers', who are out in force in the heat. Best prices in the early antepost market are as follows:

Long Run - 10/11 (Paddy Power)
Weird Al - 7/1 (Various)
Dimaond Harry - 8/1 (Ladbrokes)
Kauto Star - 8/1 (Various)
Time For Rupert - 9/1 (Coral, William Hill)
Rubi Light - 14/1 (Various)
Nacarat - 33/1 (Victor Chandler)
Pure Faith - 66/1 (Various)

Looks like a decent renewal and if you take out Long Run it looks wide open. If the 8 runners all stand their ground then it could be a super race for punting because there must be plenty of EW value against the jolly. He might be worth opposing given his disappointing debut last season (though there were clearly other reasons) and there are sure to be bigger targets ahead. That said he should be winning this if he is to prove one of the 'greats' and i would expect him to win this.

Yet to really have a good look at the race but will do so as soon as i get a chance and post a more in depth preview on this thread.

My first impression was that the 8/1 with Ladbrokes about Diamond Harry looked a big EW price. I think he can beat both Weird Al and Time For Rupert. I am sure there are a few of you who think Rubi Light is a big price too.

Your thoughts please.

 

It must be remembered Oddy that the Charlie Hall 'failure' for Diamond Harry was purely because of him getting cast in his stable at the course. Though i agree entirely that he seems to be one prone to more than his fair share of hiccups. I just think 8/1 is a big price for a horse of his ability. He's never been my favourite but i think he has every chance of running into the first three here. If he makes the race i would expect him to be a little shorter than that, but i suppose the risk is factored into his price.

I think Time For Rupert is a bit of a plodder and think he'll lack a gear or two for the very best. Kauto, whilst i would absolutely love for him to come back with a bang, must be getting a little long in the tooth. I think he might well be capable of running a big race but i would be delighted but surprised if he won. Weird Al is a tricky one for me. I'm not convinced he's really top notch but i may be wrong. Rubi Light has never been this far but was travelling all over Sizing Europe last time and is improving quickly. I think it looks very interesting.

Just for a second imagine how brilliant it would be if King Kauto came and won this. I wasn't planning on going to Haydock because it's a fair old trek for me but i'm not sure i could forgive myself if he won and i wasn't there, or if he was retired and i wasn't there. But if he won, what a day that would be!!

 

If Long Run is fit and well, then he should bolt up. It's wether you can trust that Nicky Henderson has him race fit, as we've seen with Binocular in the past, it's always a risk backing his stable stars first time out, particularly when they have bigger fish to fry later on in the season.

I've gone through all of his form to see how well he goes fresh, and it's pretty inconclusive, he's never had as long a lay off before, apart from last season, when he was 3rd in the Paddy Power off 154. That wasn't anywhere near his best form, but it's wether we blame that on the distance or the fact he needed the run. I'd probably say it was the trip, but I'm not 100% convinced.

I'd probably prefer to go with Weird Al at the prices, he and TFR pulled along way clear of everything else at Wetherby, so I fancy that form is pretty strong

 

I agree Long Run should win if hes fit and healthy, His jumping in the Paddy Power was quite shabby first time out last season, So that would be My only concern. I know they've been working on his jumping alot at home so he should be be in good nick. I hope Kauto puts a good round of jumping in and hopefully runs into a place, If he is going to win a Group 1 this year the Betfair is going to be his best chance but it does look a longshot. Seeing him return safe and sound is all anyone wants to see. Diamond Harry looks to be the best of the rest... A good race in prospect

 

4 words from me on this race

 

long run will win

 

I would like to see diamond harry give him a run! but as you say oddy given the problems I just hope he is in tip top shape! and jumps cleanly that will be a start for him to progress! I shall prbly be putting on a sentimentel e/w bet on him as well as lumping on long run! lol Time will only tell!

 

If Kauto Star wins this race then I will be gobsmacked, in his prime he would of had a chance, and we may have been in for a duel much like the one he had with Imperial Commander in this very race, but at 11 it is asking alot for him to get near Long Run. Particularly as Long Run has already delt with him twice, and Kauto Stars even older now.

He's French bred, so it was quite an achievement that he managed 3rd in the Gold Cup at 11, but his days are numbered now. I wouldn't be suprised if Saturday is the last time we see him on a race track. If he finishes tailed off, or has another fall, then I would hope connections would do the right thing and retire him. There realy is no point running an old horse, who isn't capable of doing himself justice anymore

 

I agree shergs! As i said in previous posts its heartbreaking to loose any horse but it would be a black day in racing if kauto wasnt to walk out of the unsaddling enclosure!

 

Time For Rupert has won on his 2nd start of the season for the past two years running and has, seemingly, often come on for the run. I'm not sure how the weather has been as of late but Haydock has had some cut in the ground for the past 3 Betfair chases and that would suit him. I thought he jumped imperiously in the Charlie Hall and he and Weird Al were miles clear of the rest. Weird Al has a 100% record when running fresh and I think you have to measure Time For Ruperts performance against that to some degree, and therefore I think on slightly quicker ground than he'd want, and against an excellent horse fresh, his close 2nd and excellent round of jumping put him just about bang in the mix this Saturday. I am quite liking that 9/1 at the moment.


One point to bear in mind is that the Charlie Hall was Time For Rupert's just fourth start over fences which I could not believe having watched the way he jumped around Wetherby. I just think he is open to bundles of improvement and with some cut on Saturday and the Charlie Hall bringing him on a bit, surely 9/1 is a belting e/w bet.

Weird Al ran a lovely race in the Charlie Hall, and if he were to confirm form with Time For Rupert and even win the Betfair, I think you would have to take him seriously. That said, historically he is better fresh and I think this time he might struggle to confirm the form. It would not be a bad thing for the NH scene were he to wn though, as he is clearly a talent, if somewhat fragile.


Kauto Star- What can you say? If he were to really turn up this weekend, he could get another fairytale Grade 1. He looked in good nick on the gallops at Exeter, but I just wonder about him seeing out his races at the business end now. He travelled very well in the Gold Cup but in the end succumbed to Long Run and Denman. I cannot rule him out, and indeed I'd be ecstatic to see him win. I still think, if he comes out of this race okay, that his biggest run might come in the King George, as he does seem a better horse at Kempton. He was fighting back against Long Run last year before hitting 3 out, so he wouldn't have been far behind that day. Who knows, if he could get Ruby back on board around Kempton and get into a rhythm, he might just go well. The Betfair chase has certainly put him spot on for Kempton in the past, and rarely has he been at his best here, despite winning.


Long Run was a worthy winner of both the King George and the Gold Cup, but when we consider the subsequent disappointments of both Kauto and Denman, I do think Long Run still has an awful lot to prove and I'd rather be laying him at around even money for the King George than siding with him at this moment in time. That's not me knocking the horse at all, he's looked very good but I just think you can't say with any certainty just what he beat- were Kauto and Denman running to their marks? I think there are some cracking e/w prices to be had for the Betfair chase, and am quite surprised at the value. Fair play if he absolutely hacks up and continues to prove he's a class act, though


Rubi Light is very much on my radar after I was watching him travel all over Sizing Europe before unseating at Gowran. He looked a potential top notcher that day and that built on his very promising 3rd in last seasons Ryanair. He was a big outsider that day and was only beaten 3L by Albertas Run, which was a superb effort. He was rated just 148 going into that race,still only 6, and the way he has improved means I can't rule him out at all. He was travelling easily the best on proper soft ground over 2 and a half miles at Gowran against Sizing Europe and I don't think it is stamina that will beat him this weekend.


To summarise, I just think there is plenty of e/w value on offer if you can find the right ones and at 10/11 I just think Long Run is worth taking on. After all, he will come on for this when he runs in the King George and that is his first real aim of the season. There is a lot of pace in the race, and I think the true stayers will come to the fore here. Weird Al seems to possess a turn of foot but I think that will be blunted as a result of a good clip (Nacarat/Rubi Light/Time For Rupert on the front end). I think, although the romantic in me says otherwise, that Kauto might travel pretty well coming into the final 3 fences, but possibly not quite find enough. I think he'll head to Kempton for his finale and bow out at the scene of arguably his 4 greatest days.

I'll take TIME FOR RUPERT 9/1 e.w
RUBI LIGHT 14/1 e.w

 

Long Run is probably the brightest prospect at his age I have seen since the tragic Gloria Victis, To achieve what he as done at such a young age is frightening and he could win many many Gold Cups and King George's if he continues to improve and I don't see why not. His jumping as always been a concern, Even in his Gold Cup win he blundered alot of his fences and a Kauto Star or Denman a couple of years younger would have seen him off comfortably at Cheltenham. The baton as been passed to Long Run from the old guard in Kauto and Denman and nothing more that a comfortable win at weekend should be expected. Haydock is a stiff track and as stiff fences so I worry that Long Run may come unstuck here hence the reason Im finding Diamond Harry a very interesting contender, Proven form round Haydock and a very talented horse (Maybe not as talented as Long Run but certainly as ability) I remember Kauto unseating at Haydock and hes been as versatile as they come (Track, Distance, Ground) Is Long Run? Time will tell...

If Kauto Star is retired after the weekend (If he puts a lacklustre display in) Then I don't think theres another horse apart from Denman who deserves a long and happy retirement. One of the all time greats...

 

Istabraq.....Since when has Kauto Star ever jumped well enough around Cheltenham, to see Long Run off. I have never seen a fluent round of jumping from KS round there. Kempton yes that was his course, but I'm convinced that Long Run's victory last year woluld have seen off KS, even in his prime.

Im even convinced that Long Runs performance in last years KG, would have been good enough to beat KS, in any of his victories

 

I'm the only member who's put Rubi Light in his "Ten To Follow"- and really believes in the horse.
Saturday will be his moment of truth- enough said.

Shergar, you must have a short memory about Kauto and his jumping round Cheltenham- watch the 2009 Gold Cup.

 

What did Kauto Star beat in the 2009 Gold Cup? A Denman who had just made a comeback from a serious heart condition. We all know KS won a couple of soft Gold Cups, and when he was up against a fully fit Denman, he was beaten, 3-1, need I say anymore.

We all know that had Denman never had his heart issues he would have won the 09 Gold Cup beating KS in the process, just as he did in 08.

We all know 100% fit and well, and in there prime, that Denman was by far the better horse, he proved that

 

A fascinating renewal if the dead eight go to post, but you just know there'll be at least one defection. So then it's all about one horse, and wether or not you want to back or lay the favourite at the prices. At even money I'd be willing to back Long Run to modest stakes, despite the fact he's likely to be slightly undercooked. He's so obviously the best horse in the race.

 

Is there a more loved hunt horse in the world? Well maybe one, Denman. Long Run is the one with all the spotlight on him, and rightly so, but if the great Kauto Star can put himself into the race at the end, he'll have people all over the place cheering him on. I know I will. Questions are rightly being asked about his age and whether he still has the legs to get the job done, but the man who knows him best, Paul Nicholls likes what he's seen so far.

"Kauto Star looks fantastic at the moment and is as alert as ever at home, never missing a trick. He has been working with all his customary verve and enthusiasm and goes to [Haydock] 100% fit and well. And, with the current ground and a dry forecast, there should be no excuses for him." He said.

Surely he's great value?

 

Just a point on the Denman heart problem. According to probably one of the leading experts on equine "pump' troubles, Dr. Marr, the atrial fibrillation condition suffered by Denman, wasn't the huge issue the press made it out to be. "There was no operation at all, because there wasn't any need," Marr said. "The idea seemed to take hold that it was like an episode of Casualty, that we stopped his heart and then went off for a cup of coffee before starting it again. His condition was one that can require an operation if it does not respond to treatment with drugs, but in his case, he did respond, so there was no need to operate."

"The agreement among the experts that Denman's heart condition is unlikely to recur."

It's easy to invent reasons for defeat. But to do so is be unfair to others who won fair and square. If the vet, trainer and owner say the horse was ok, then I'm prepared to believe them. They would know better than any of us.

 

I think for the antepost punter Kauto Star is a right royal bet, 3 places and I can almost see some of these withdrawing at final decs. You might get three places for a six runner race

I probably won't be backing in the race, because I have a feeling that Long Run will not be in tip top shape and I fear that he will have at least one run this season where his jumping doesn't hold up.

Tempting race, but unless we get the flat 8 on the day and a good view on Long Run in the parade ring I won't be dabbling.

 

To keep it short I can't, for one moment, see beyond Mr Henderson's Long Run in the 'Betfair'. Although he will have much 'bigger fish to fry' than this heat this term I can only see one outcome on Saturday and that is a comfortable debut success for the current holder of the old CGC. If someone held a gun to my head, although I’m sure no-one would ever want to do that, then I would nominate dear old Kauto Star as the biggest danger.

Re Weird Al he put up an admirable effort in the 'Charlie Hall' but, people, he may not even be the best chaser that Don McCain currently trains which starts with the letter 'W'.