Betfair Chase Preview: Tizzard’s star should be bang on Cue By Joe Rendall (Timeform) -- published 18th November 2014 Joe Rendall previews this weekend’s Betfair Chase from Haydock where history could be about to repeat itself. It’s a nervous time to be a jumps fan. Despite the feast of racing which awaits between now and Christmas, Timeform’s two highest-rated chasers, Cue Card and Sprinter Sacre, have to prove they retain their old ability after significant injury scares. If they don’t, whatever the rest of the season holds, there will be a distinct lack of sheen to proceedings. Sprinter Sacre’s test lies further ahead, but for Cue Card this Saturday, when he attempts to defend his Betfair Chase crown, is the big one. In winning last year’s race Cue Card ran to a rating of 180, the highest by any chaser in training last season. If he is in the same form this year, there is no reason to suggest he won’t win impressively again, and if that’s the case then the current 3/1 on offer looks a pretty decent price. The big question is, will he be? The short answer is that it is impossible to know for sure. A known unknown, if you will. However there are plenty of reasons to be sufficiently optimistic to back him, which is the long and short of Timeform’s view of the race. If you’d have stopped his comeback run in the Haldon Gold Cup last time two fences from home it would have looked the perfect pipe-opener. As it is he finished fourth, only the second time in 13 completed starts over fences that he has finished out of the first three. In doing so he ran to a figure 10 lb inferior to the previous year, but there are mitigating circumstances. The first is that Cue Card had an injury to overcome, and a fairly serious one at that. The talk of retirement was far from premature at one stage so to shape so well for much of the race at Exeter was actually a hugely encouraging sign, even if he did falter slightly in the closing stages. The other point is that he lacks the pace for two miles these days and had to give away weight to two fairly progressive horses in that sphere in Balder Succes and God’s Own. Cue Card more than hinted that the old ability was still there and so, after further inspection, it now looks an encouraging reappearance. As for Saturday, it’s hoped that run will have put Cue Card where he needs to be in terms of fitness, and the reliable record discussed above should give punters heart too. He is the best horse in the race on Timeform figures and with Daryl Jacob (Timeform Jockey Rating +4.03) taking over from Joe Tizzard (+0.63) another positive, it’s advised you take the 3/1 currently on offer in the expectation that the old Cue Card will be back with a bang. The betting looks to have the rest of the field about right, with Dynaste and Silviniaco Conti coming next in the market. Dynaste ran a career-best when second in this race last year and he was largely consistent at the top level last season, bar a blip in the King George. Given David Pipe’s current form he is sure to have his supporters, but although Dynaste has more than earned the right to run at the top level, you get the feeling he may just be found wanting in the more competitive Grade 1s. He didn’t beat a bad field in the Ryanair in March but it is fair to say there weren’t any superstars, and as he’s only half a point bigger than Cue Card for Saturday’s race with a four-and-a-half length deficit to overcome, he is best avoided. Silvinaco Conti like Cue Card has had the benefit of a comeback run, but looked badly in need of it at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall. You can bet your bottom dollar that Paul Nicholls left a bit to work on and it although visually it might not have been that encouraging, it may be that he needs a run to get him sharp these days. Were Cue Card to underperform you fancy Silviniaco Conti would be best placed to pick up the pieces, especially as he is likely to encounter his optimum conditions - soft going and a flat track – on Saturday. Paul Nicholls has proved himself peerless at priming his horses for a big day, and Silviniaco Conti merits serious respect for that reason. If there is one horse who could spring a surprise in the field it’s Taquin du Seuil, who ran right up the best of his novice form when second at Wetherby last time. It may be that the increased emphasis on stamina the likely soft going will provide on Saturday will bring about improvement too, give he shaped as if the Charlie Hall didn’t quite get to the bottom of him. With Barry Geraghty booked and conditions more likely to suit if you were after a saver in the race he looks the most sensible candidate at 6/1. He certainly looks capable of winning a race of this nature at some stage, it’s just a question of when. The rest of the field don’t make much appeal. Menorah won the Charlie Hall well last time but has proved consistently inconsistent and for that reason, despite the rampant form of handler Phillip Hobbs, can’t be backed at 7/1 with any confidence. Harry Topper has always looked a horse who will need his first run back and with a history of jumping errors doesn’t make much appeal off a 252-day break. The Giant Bolster is hard to catch right and there’s enough of a doubt as to whether the strong-travelling Double Ross will find the race run to suit on Saturday to swerve him too. Medermit ran a respectable race at Wetherby last time and is entitled to come on for the run after six months off, but has upwards of a stone to find to be involved with the principles and even if he were to return to his best form would have place claims but probably no more. The 2014 Betfair Chase rightly revolves around Cue Card. As when Sprinter Sacre hopefully returns at Sandown in a few weeks’ time, plenty will just be hoping that they show some of the old spark. However, unlike at Sandown where Sprinter is likely to go off at prohibitive odds, we have the chance to back Cue Card at a reasonable price. The advice is to do so, so that any feelings of unbridled joy at seeing a top-class horse back to his best are enhanced by the warming glow of significant remuneration come Saturday afternoon. Recommended bet: Back Cue Card in the Betfair Chase
I never call Silviniaco right, I'm not backing him Saturday as my money is the ultimate weight for him so I will just cheer him home instead as I think he wins this and wins it well
Think he calls it spot on, Cue Card would be the biggest danger but i really fancy Taquin D S. Ground on the fast side last time and will get a proper tow into the race with Cue Card making the running. His form with Uxizandre certainly looks decent now
I can't see any reason why Menorah won't confirm Charlie Hall form and he represents e/w value at 7/1. Dynaste is the dark horse here - ran a cracker last season and if CC and SC are not at their absolute best he could be the one to mop up. But 3/1 is quite skinny and at the prices Menorah makes more appeal.
All of the field have questions to answer. I am thoroughly confused with this race, because I believe CC and SC are the best horses but I was disappointed with both on reappearance whilst I can't have TDS and Menorah is one of those horses who can either be great or awful.
Took 9/2 on CUE CARD with coral last week 3 pointa win. More hope than expectation tbh. Dynaste never seems to win when it counts.
Cue Card and Conti should battle it out. Taquin will be done for speed turning in. Can see Conti reeling in Cue Card as the line nears.
Was on Menorah last time out and won't abandon for this this race. Cue Card to follow him home, SC back in 3rd
I can never catch that horse right so you'll be pleased to know i'm not handicapping him with my cash tomorrow!
Rather hoping to hear old man Tizzard's Wezt Cuuntree burr tomorrow as he is interviewed in the winners enclosure. But honestly, how can you predict what these slow farm animals are going to do? Not a confident bet, but it does look a match between Cue Card and the Nichols horse.
Think Menorah will roll back the years once again, proper winter ground seems to favour the old timers at the moment.expect wishfull to do likewise
With it likely to be a really testing slog, I'm of the belief that Harry Topper 12/1 is a smashing eway bet. If he can just treat the fences with a little more respect I think he represents value in the race and should be up to grabbing a place.
A different Timeform view - By Jamie Lynch -- published 21st November 2014 Weekend Preview: Inspector Clue-Seuil Jamie Lynch plays detective ahead of the Betfair Chase, and he thinks he's solved the big-race riddle. ‘Every man at the bottom of his heart believes that he is a born detective.’ Perhaps that’s the subliminal appeal of the sport; the fact that each race is a mystery to be solved, with clues to be investigated, individuals to assess, deductions to be made, and a denouement to unravel – a dramatic one more often than not. The classic whodunit involves a plot of high stakes and tension, with a game-playing format the viewer can invest in, and some misdirection along the way, culminating in a final twist whereby the principal characters are usurped by a lesser player for whom the clues were all there, augmented in the revelation, apparent in retrospect. Revelation is the wrong word, because, according to all the textbooks, the outcome should be a realisation rather than a revelation, both traceable and logical. The Betfair Chase has exactly that whodunit feel about it. High stakes and tension: check. A game-playing format the viewer can invest in: check. Principal characters that perhaps aren’t all they seem: check. A lesser player whose credentials are more obvious than it might appear: check. The same mystery-making textbooks that say it’s realization and not revelation also state that all plots should be written backwards, so let’s start at the end: Taquin du Seuil wins the Betfair Chase. That’s what I’m going with and betting on, so now the whys and wherefores of means and motive, in conjunction with the logical climax law. Taquin du Seuil has the ideal profile, not only in terms of the Betfair Chase but also his whodunit role as the unsuspected culprit, people put off the scent due to several bigger players on higher alert, namely the first three from last year. In weaving a mystery, the best red herrings are the viable ones, and each of Cue Card, Dynaste and Silviniaco Conti have got ‘previous’ that naturally sends you in their direction. But, equally, it’s easy to write a script where their cases fall apart at the end, none of them compelling for one reason or another. The smoking-gun evidence of the Betfair Chase winner will be double-barrelled: class and stamina. In the dramatic denouement to the Haydock mystery, (if and) when Taquin du Seuil is revealed, here are the traceable clues regarding class and stamina that will explain all… I put it to you, Taquin du Seuil, that this began a long time ago, back in your Flat days in France where, unbeknown to some, you were a very useful stayer. I did a little digging and found an old friend of yours, Tac de Boistron, who said that you and him had something in common, both finishing second to the same horse (Inside Man) on your way up. Everyone knows these days how much class and stamina Tac de Boistron has, and he’s willing to testify that you had plenty yourself ,more than you let on. Your movements over hurdles are better known, but even then you were incognito, wanting to keep out of the spotlight? But I remember the day at Ascot where you came out a better horse at the weights than My Tent Or Yours, giving him 5 lb, and that was over two miles on good ground, hardly a level playing field. In fact, not once did you go beyond twenty-one furlongs as a hurdler, did you? Hmmm… It was the same trip story over fences last season, but your class came through all the same, advertised this term by Uxizandre while you yourself have been content with a couple of trial runs in preparation for the big heist, in league with your new accomplices of cheekpieces and Geraghty. You’ve tried to hide it, but you have the class, you have the stamina, and you’re the only one with the potential to pull this off. It’s you, Taquin du Seuil. It’s you. It’s YOU! The whole point of this mythical mystery is to highlight that, despite what you might think, Taquin du Seuil has the craft, cunning and capabilities to plunder this prize. The fact there are other likelier suspects is all part of a good whodunit, but the clues are clear as to how the surprise revelation isn’t a surprise at all, nor a revelation; it’s a realisation that Taquin du Seuil has been plotting this up all along.
Timeform Ratings CUE CARD 194 SILVINIACO CONTI (FR) 190 DYNASTE (FR) 185 MENORAH (IRE) 183x THE GIANT BOLSTER 174 TAQUIN DU SEUIL (FR) 173p DOUBLE ROSS (IRE) 171 MEDERMIT (FR) 170 Verdict: It would be no surprise to see last year's winner Cue Card leave his Exeter reappearance behind and take close order, but in first-time cheekpieces Taquin du Seuil could be the way to go having shaped well on his first try at this trip in the Charlie Hall. 2012 winner Silviniaco Conti also has the aid of cheekpieces now and similarly should have come on plenty for his return at Wetherby.
