Really, really exciting race at Ascot on Saturday which sees the following lock horns over 2m5f with the going soft at present. Captain Chris 5/2 Cue Card 11/4 Finian's Rainbow 3/1 Somersby 9/2 Ghizao 9/1 Pigeon Island 50/1 As the market suggest there's 4 in with a good shout. Captain Chris is an understandable favourite following a King George VI Chase second to Long Run this season. He also won over 2m3f at this track back in November, with Ghizao and Finian's Rainbow in behind that day. The ground will provide no problem and he clearly loves going right handed. Cue Card is my favourite horse in training so don't listen to a word I say but he ran a huge race in the King George before not fully seeing out the 3 mile trip in heavy ground. It was the first time he'd encountered such ground and such a long trip and whilst 2m5f is sure to really test his stamina it's markedly different to 3 miles in my opinion. Looks to be a major player. 2012 Champion Chase winner Finian's Rainbow has had just the 1 race this season, when last of 4 behind Captain Chris here at Ascot on heavy ground in November. Beaten 24L that day but I always say you can forgive a horse 1 bad run (especially on that sort of going) he arguably goes into the race as another facing stamina questions. He easily disposed of Wishful Thinking over 2m4f at Aintree last year on good ground but I think this will be a whole different test and it's fair to say he probably wouldn't want it any softer. Somersby comes in a general 9/2 shot which some people might consider value given his course form. Is he the same horse under Mick Channon though? With a run as recently as Trials Day at Cheltenham there won't be any fitness concerns with this one (FR and Cue Card are returning from a long break) and he should come on for what was his first run of the season. You'd think he probably has to as well to be in with a chance here. No disrespect to Pigeon Island but the one other with some sort of realistic chance is 9/1 shot Ghizao. He's another who took part in the Ascot race back in November and he finished 4L 3rd to Captain Chris, interestingly though he was giving 6lb to the winner that day. It's worth noting that he'd already had a run though and as such might well have had a fitness edge that day. Most recently he finished 8L 3rd to Menorah at Kempton on the 27th Dec. How many of these are using the race as a stepping stone to Cheltenham? Are we seeing the winner of the Ryan Air Chase? And, most importantly, which of these horses, if any, represent the value on Saturday? guys it's safe to say I'm pretty excited about this race and I know we have 1 or 2 Ascot locals, do keep us informed as to the weather!! All that's left to say is come on Cue Card!
Currently dry George but from walking the dog these past couple of days I can tell you that underfoot conditions in these parts can only be described as very SOFT. Ascot always produces decent ground but it will be on the Heavy side of SOFT!
Captain Chris for me...a completely different horse going right handed and will handle the ground. Cue Card's stamina will be tested in the ground but if he does stay i think he is a big danger. I have a suspicion the ground may be too soft for finians rainbow over a trip which is a bit of an unknown, especially on the likely going. Ill be disappointed if Somersby is good enough to win this if the other three perform
You have to take Somersby seriously at Ascot, his course form is absolutely outstanding compared to his efforts anywhere else. Narrow defeats to MASTER MINDED and then a storming late surge to see off FINIAN'S RAINBOW (went on to win the Champion Chase) means he has to be considered. I was hoping for bigger than 9/2. That said, this is over 2m 5f so its a bit of a trip unknown for most of them bar Captain Chris. Would love to see Cue Card settle down early and then allowed to stride on later. To help his jumping though, they might be best to just let him bowl along from the front and just see if he stays.
