Ten more assertions which may or may not be true. This time I haven't posted the answers on my profile page. I'll post them along with explanations next week (if I remember ): (1) In terms of points gained, a clean sheet is worth more than twice a single goal scored. (2) Conceding only once in a game is worth more than scoring once. (3) Appointing a new manager at a struggling club generally improves team performance at least in the short term. (4) Different countries, different national characters, different football -- for example: (a) the defensive skill of Italian teams is reflected in a low average number of goals scored per game; (b) the Spanish emphasis on technique and ball control is reflected in their predominantly short-passing game; (c) the pace and physicality of the English game is reflected in the high number of penalties and red cards; (d) Germanic efficiency is reflected in a high number of shots per game with a higher than usual proportion on target. (5) Playing at home improves a team's chance of winning by over 50%. (6) Having a player red-carded has only a marginal impact on the result of a game. It simply makes the ten men more determined and more difficult to break down. (7) Skill lights up a game, but it is mistakes that more often decide the outcome. (8) Top former players generally don't make good managers. (9) An animated manager on the touch-line endears himself to fans, who like to see "passion", but it is usually the last thing a struggling team needs. (10) Every team needs a playmaker, someone who pulls the strings and around whom the team's attacking play revolves.
Probably making a complete arse of myself robbie, but............. 1. False 2. False 3. True 4. False 5. True 6. True 7. True 8. True 9. False 10. False
Poets, as we know, are forgiven everything RBF! Bonus points for having a go. I'll PM you the answers and my explanations.
My guesses: FALSE - the average number of points per game for teams who keep a clean sheet is more than the number of points per game where a team scores only once, but not more than double. (at a guess, it will be somewhere around 1.8 ppg for a clean sheet and 1.2 for scoring one goal) TRUE - in matches where a team conceded once, they had a higher average ppg than matches where a team scored just once. (at a guess, 1.3 ppg for conceding just once and 1.2 (as above) for scoring once) NOT SURE. Taking just the Prem, and assuming "struggling" means in the bottom 25%, I suppose this is possibly true. All leagues in England and/or Europe, probably false. It's difficult to know what "struggling club" means too. FALSE. I wouldn't be surprised if every one of those stereotypes is false - the only one that looks close is (b) and even then I wouldn't be surprised if, say, France, Germany or Italy had shorter average passes. TRUE. Certainly for "Nodge". I think it was about 400%! FALSE. Your chances of conceding, and so (to a lesser extent) your chances of dropping points, is higher if you have a player red carded. At least it is in the Prem. TRUE. NOT SURE. "Top" is difficult one - was SAF "top"? He was certainly pretty good. Also, what's a "good" manager? On balance I'd say false - top players more often than not prove to be decent managers. FALSE. Not sure how this is measured, but I'm a staunch advocate of the idea that crowd response plays a massive part in playing psychology. A new manager coming in, getting fired up and the crowd getting a lift probably has a positive impact on the pitch, but I can see this one being untrue. TRUE - teams where a high percentage of touches was by a midfielder who also was their leading assist contributor have a better record than teams where the number of touches is more evenly spread.
@Canary Rob "Guesses" is surely being a bit hard on yourself Rob! I'll PM you my answers and explanations. Your comment that "struggling", "top", "good" etc. are vague is of course justified, but they are the terms in which such bits of football "lore" and received wisdom are usually couched.
Yes you can DM! I was going to post them in a day or two, but the thought of everyone on tenterhooks and totally unable to concentrate on today's match because of the suspense has changed my mind . So here goes: (1) TRUE On average, close to 2.5 points are gained by a team which keeps a clean sheet. In contrast, a team scoring once in a game gains, on average, only 1 point. (2) TRUE On average, a team which concedes only one goal gains 1.5 points compared to the single point gained on average by teams which score once. (3) FALSE The key here is to distinguish the question of whether there is generally a reversal of form for the better when a new manager takes over a struggling team, from the question of what causes that reversal of form. The assumption is that the improved performances/results are down to the new manager. Research shows that, in the typical situation where a lengthening sequence of poor results leads eventually to the manager being replaced, the subsequent upturn in the fortunes of the team is better explained by the statistical phenomenon of regression to the mean than by anything the new manager does. If you compare the performance of struggling teams where the manager is replaced, with that of equally struggling teams where the manager is not replaced, there is no difference (and if anything, the latter is more beneficial). (4) FALSE Statistics for the four leagues between 2000 and 2011 show insignificant variation in goals scored, long and short passing, penalties, shots and shots on target, corners, and many other key measures. There are differences in the number of cards awarded, but more reds cards are awarded in the supposedly less frenetic and physical La Liga than in the English Premier League. (5) TRUE Analysis shows that playing at home raises the probability of the home team winning from 27% to 42%, while reducing the probability of losing from 32% to 19%. So when Chris Hughton prioritises winning our home games, he is sensibly seeking to take maximum advantage of an already fair wind. (6) FALSE Even allowing for cases like Arnautovic's red following his 90th minute confrontation with Elmander (which coming so late had very little bearing on the result), the stats show that going down to ten men is very damaging. Its disadvantaging effect is comparable to the disadvantaging effect of playing away as opposed to at home. (7) TRUE There are all sorts of mistakes -- misjudgements in the penalty box, goal keeping errors, loss of concentration leading to poor marking, failure of communication, tactical breakdown, mistiming a header, letting the ball bounce, etc. etc. And while few players reach the highest level of skill, all are capable of error. No wonder then that in football success depends primarily on making fewer mistakes, individual and collective, than your opponents. The target set his teams by Lobanovskyi, legendary coach of Dynamo Kiev, was to reduce the number of mistakes to no more than 18% of all the team's actions! Howlers stand out and are remembered, but most mistakes are not even noticed by spectators and commentators. (8) FALSE This is a well-entrenched myth which everyone can "support" by naming ex-players who have proved disastrous in management and top class managers who never played at the highest level. But statistics for the Premier League and Football League over a twenty year period show otherwise. Managers who had been skilled players themselves were particularly effective when in charge of teams of lower-paid, less talented players (contrary to the idea that handling players who lack the level of skill to which he himself was used is a particular problem for the ex-player manager). (9) TRUE So obvious you wouldn't think it necessary to point it out! But how often do you hear remarks like "They are going to get the hair-dryer treatment" or "I bet the cups were flying in the dressing room at half-time". Helping your team take something from a game is a far cry from spurring a tiring horse to the line. Calm analysis, effective well-timed substitutions, and shrewd tactical adjustments are far more productive of points than displays of "passion". (10) FALSE Although there are plenty of examples of very successful teams who do have a playmaker, recent research indicates that teams which rely on one (or even two) such pivotal player(s) -- however good -- may be handicapping themselves. For example, such teams score fewer goals than those whose pattern of play or passing is less "centralised". As in many other aspects, balance is the key to success. ---------------------------------- Note: as before, the questions and answers are taken from Anderson & Sally's book. The primary purpose of the book is not to debunk a lot of football folk lore, but to illustrate the ways in which our understanding of the game that we (club chairmen, managers, players and fans) all think we know so well, is about to be changed by the availability of "Big Data", which makes it possible to apply to football the sorts of analytic techniques that have revolutionised so many other aspects of our lives.
