Since the jump season is upon us, i was thinking of a betting scheme.Basically it is to back a horse that fell last time out. My reasoning behind this is that, the horse that fell, probably wants to jump everthing put in front of him /her,next time out instead of getting the stuffing knocked out of themselves again.If a horse falls twice its off the list (because he/she probably enjoys falling in some sad way). I got this from watching some show jumping on tv, these horses love to jump, but if they don't want to jump or make a fool of themselves they just refuse and send the rider flying. And yes, before everyone gets on the band wagon its just for fun.I will try it for a few months till xmas to see if there is anything to it. Horses that refused or pulled up will not be included. The bets will be ew, because i assume the bookies will be kind with their odds for the fallers. The betting bank will start with 1000pts with a min bet of 10pts. Hopefully i will not miss any last time out faller runners.
Well just my luck there is only one race with a faller in it, and it has 3 of them,and the bookies are not being kind, looking at the sporting life betting forecast. So here we go to start with the betting plan. Roscommon 17.35 Pistol Jack sp 10ew Onzo mor sp 10 ew Ballygill Gayle sp 10ew 60pts total bet, betting bank total 940 pts
Islander,backing fallers! You must have been staying in the place where my wife once lived....Inuvik. You get "bushed" after a while , don't you? All that white and cold and eskimos fishing in holes in the ice. Mind you, I once knew a Paddy who had a good win on an 100/1 outsider. His mate said.."How on earth did you back that one, Paddy, with form figures of....FFFFFP?" "Easy, said Paddy....FIRST,FIRST,FIRST,FIRST,FIRST,PISSED IT!" Never mind, Islander, I'll send you a manual to carry out your own cranial lobotomy-complete with free icepick! Dig deep, though. It looks as though you need it!
I remember CHIEF MECHANIC had some theory about last time fallers over fences who were switched to hurdles for their next run .................. or something like that. Very best of luck
ISLANDER i have noticed you do well in comps you enter so this will be fun to watch, best of luck, we all have to try new ideas or we would still be living in caves and dragging the missus by the hair,(some still do that) hope you keep post your results, cheers
After day one i had a nr a 4th place and a winner. Onzo Mor win at 3/1 returns 56pts Pistol Jack n/r 20pts return. Bank total 1016 pts Tomorrows fallers to follow are. Sedgefield 2,50 Russian War 10pts ew 3.50 Word of Warning 10pts ew
Russian War finished thats all can be said, but Word of Warning came third at 25/1 for a return of 60pts Bank has a total of 1036pts. total fallen runners 4, wins 1, places 1, no shows 2
Wednesdays fallers to follow at Sligo 16.05 Miss Sarene 10pts ew 17.05 An Blasscaoid Mor 10pts ew 17.35 Sir Ejay 10pts ew
An Blasscaoid Mor returned at 10/1 in 3rd to make a 30pts the other two were no shows the bank now stands at 1006 pts
Islander, on refection, I'm sorry if my flippant and sick humour has offended you- when I replied to your Post initially. The thought of backing 'fallers' tickled me at the time and, when I thought about it later, my reply may have come across as belittling-which was never intended. Many apologies.
I'm fascinated to see how this fella does, please keep posting the bets and results. Like Tamerlo, when I saw this thread I assumed the OP was on a wind up or was confirmed insane, but I admire anyone who puts the time into thinking up and then testing a system. Many years ago (probably around mid 90s before the answers were easily available on the internet) I used to do very well at aggregate winning distances - it took time but collating a record of average distances for each going was priceless. Then various stats appeared on the internet and market makers gained the upper hand, but there were definitely times when places like Brighton that were being called 8-9 lengths for 7 races when the average for the ground was around 2 lengths a race. Hereford and Bangor were two I remember as being regularly 'wrong' over the sticks. Island - I wish you well, you never know you may uncover a route to fortune...
Tam and Grizz no problem, Doubt it will make a fortune,at the moment tipping every faller that runs hopefully i will find a way how to narrow this down to selected ones before my pts bank runs out. There were no last time out fallers running today, but will post for tomorrow if there are any.
Fridays fallers to follow uk races only since there are two cards Fontwell 15.50 Trooper Clarence 10pts ew 17.00 Call at Midnight 10pts ew Hexham 16.50 Agriculture 10pts ew
Islander, I 've been giving a bit of thought into how you might be able to narrow down the selections. I've been a bit of a fan of horses who've been heavily punted last time out, is it possible that this might help a little? At least you know that the animal has been doing something in private of late. So if it has fallen and had support, it might be worth a look. It might also be worth looking at the replays on Attheraces and Sporting Life, to see how the horses were travelling before the fall. If they were well beaten and drifting backwards in the same type of company, then maybe put a line through them.
Wise advice from Cyc there. Of course the price will reflect this but I guess you're better off having a 5/4 winner than a 33/1 loser. And it's easy to catch film of every race these days
Interesting reading here... Im taking on Fountains Flypast today on similar circumstances... Though he unseated the rider last time out, it was after a blunder at the last fence. F.Flyer runs today at Fontwell, 3.15 and is currently 5/2fav. Its not quiet the same as what your doing Islanderpei, but is somewhat similar... Keep up your work, you just never know...
