Apologies if a Thread has already been started but i have a fancy (well 2) for this week-ends big race from a trends point of view. The trends we are looking for include: aged 4-6 weight 9.0 - 9.6 rated 97 and over had a minimum of 4 runs this season (winning a maximum of once) Competed in Class 3 or better in last 30 days Last run at Haydock/Gdwd/Donny Won Class 3 or better Won over 6f or 7f Contested Stewards Cup and/or Gt St Wilfred Between 10 and 20/1 and trained by Dandy!! I cannot find one that hits all the trends but the 2 that jump out at me are: Macs Power who deserves to win a big race for Skeletor BUT the main bet is going to be OUR JONATHON who is waited to compete against Pepper Lane and will love the fast pace and being staying on late better than most Comments and selections please WON 11/1SP
GDC - I went last year to the Gold Cup and though it had rained very hard two days before the meeting it certainly put a few out of contention... This is what it said about the winner Redford last year... Redford (IRE) (28) Age 5 9-2 Drawn 17 form 020003 He has won three times from 7f to 1m on ground varying from good to soft, but last win was over two years ago. Third of 13 behind Side Glance beaten 1 3/4l at 10-1 on his latest outing at Doncaster over 6f (good) earlier last month. Classy sort who could make a real impact. Rating 108. Result was... 1st - Redford @ 14/1 2nd - Victor De Lyphar @ 8/1 age 3 9-4 drawn stall 24 form 026-112 rated 107 3rd - Hitchens @ 33/1 age 5 9-6 drawn stall 8 form 5-00061 rated 105 4th - Genki @ 8/1 age 6 9-8 drawn stall 11 form 3-46103 rated 116 If i do remmber also there was a draw bias towards the higher numbers and looking in my programme the winners have come from draws 17, 15, 20, 22 in the last 4 years... Before i nail my colours to the mast i would like to know the going as it will alter my mind but the one im looking towards at the moment would be COLNEL MAK, currently at 14/1. He won the Silver Cup last year here over 6f and won lto. Although he came 6th against Pepper Lane at Ripon previous to that, the field split in that race and the group he was in came off 2nd best, he got 6th over all, 2nd in the stand side group. That was also on good to soft conditions, ground that is maybe not to his favour... I agrre with you over Pepper Lane, he also wouldnt mind some cut in the ground but i might wait for the confirmation of the going first... Looking forward to this weekends race as i took my misses last year and had a ball of a time... Oh how time passes you by... I keep all my racing programmes when i go to the races and i dug the programme out of its box to have a look... I just cant believe how quick the year has gone...!!!
Red: Nice one, Ayr is one meeting i have never attended but i know what you mean about racecards, i keep all my Derby Day ones and have a good look through each year too! The draw bias is always there especially when softish but i am willing to take the chance that Our Jonathon gets a nice draw
Dear old Advanced (who, of course, has won the Ayr Gold Cup in days of yore and last term was placed in the Silver variety) has a great record here but as he is currently number 69 in the weights another run in the Silver rather than Gold Cup looks on the cards. Should certainly be considered though. The one that I would note most strongly re the Ayr Gold, Silver and Bronze Cups though would be Cheveton in the Silver or Bronze Cup (which one he participates in will, of course, be dependent on how many above him in the weight come out). Won the Bronze heat last year and his effort last time out was most promising and eyecatching. Looks on a good perch of 87 to boot (beat Hoof It when running off 92 last September). WON 12/1SP In the Gold Cup Kevin Ryan’s Breathless Kiss (what a lovely name for a filly, by the way) would be of some interest if allowed to run. Her last 4 races have been in pattern company, including Group 1, and she has not been disgraced in this sphere. 98 is not particularly harsh and quotes of 40/1 look to have underestimated the filly considerably. The draw though is sure to play a very, very key ingredient in all 3 heats this Friday/Saturday. That is probably why, along with ground uncertainties, the market at the moment is not attracting huge interest.
Lest we forget the top tipping from Karl Espumere last year - nap bet the winner is drawn 13 or higher. You heard it here first
Showing my age a bit here but the last winner of the Ayr Gold Cup i backed was Able Albert in 84. I can remember my father getting a word for the horse and having all of £10 at 9/1 if i remember correctly Alakh was declared the winner from Easterby's star when everyone and their granny could see 9-1 shot Albert - ridden by Mark Birch - had won, even though the two were racing wide apart. Its OUR JONATHAN 20/1 generally 14's in places all the way for me he's off about the right mark and should go very close. WON 11/1SP
I am with you very much on Cheverton Sir Barney, he went into my note book for the meeting last time out as he is a very good reliable sprinter who looks to clearly have been targeted for a late campaign this year. Wherever he runs at Ayr i will be on. WON 12/1SP In the Gold Cup although i am unsure if it will run so not backing just yet i feel Daarajat at 25-1 will prove a class horse but if it will be at Ayr i am not sure. This horse was started off this year in the Fred Darling and has contested good races with his last race a 2nd behind Rose Blossom with Desert Poppy and Dever Dream behind in 3rd and 4th. This horse has a big race in him and i think it could be the Gold Cup IF he runs.
Perused today’s edition of the old ‘Weekender’ over lunch and their pick, based on the trends, was also Mac’s Power (Eddie Ahern will ride apparently). They raised 2 additional points to those listed above – namely that 12 out of the last 17 winners had already won a handicap featuring 18+ runners and that the Portland Handicap is not a great guide as only 2 out of the last 10 winners ran in it but an awful lot of Ayr Gold Cup runners came immediately from that race. Another trend featured elsewhere in the publication (which is against Macs Power and a few others) is that no Newmarket trained beast has won the Ayr Gold Cup for 24, I say 24, years! The all important draw, by the way, is made at 11 o’clock tomorrow morn.
Whilst I appreciate that this is not the best of races to be given a tip, I have. CROISULTAN, apparently was 40's/50's on Tuesday, got given it last night, its now best price 20's. Do as you wish but thought I would pass it on. If any of you experts can tell me if it has any chance!! I would appreciate it, Cheers Now 14's!!
Yorkies: Looks as if that tip is doing the rounds and having some effect on the price! I can't comment on the horse itself as I don't know that one, but if you feel the source is genuine then go for it Good luck
I put earlier in the thread about Daraajat as i think he has a little bit of class about him that has yet to be fully realised. I did not bet as was unsure if he would run. Although has not been helped by the draw i still feel that 28-1 EW is too big a price for a horse potentially better than a handicapper. In his last race he came second to Rose Blossom with the 3rd and 4th Dever Dream and Desert Poppy going very close to winning listed races next time out. When something wins a big handicap they ask can he go on to listed or group and Daraajat has very nearly already done so and yet gets weight from most of the field. The only downside is that kanaf has been taken out so its a fair bet Richard Hills will ride or T'shea and the choice of these two is like being asked if you would like to be hit in the face with a bat or a brick. Still hopefully his class will get him through in spite of this handicap and 28-1 ew has got to be worth a bet.
Im tempted to go with Regal Parade- just due to the fact he has previous G1 form and has won, not in the greatest form at the mo, but he is back within a comftable weight limit! But there a number who have the potential
SON OF THE CAT gets my vote. Brian Gubby's 5YO fits most of the trends and, based on the Bronze Cup today, his draw at 9 should not cause any great inconvenience. His last 2 runs have been in Listed races where he has finished 5th to Monsieur Chevalier (beaten just under 3L) and 2nd to Swiss Dream (beaten just under 2L). He runs off a mark of 99 which seems reasonable given his last 2 runs in Listed company, and his last handicap appearance came 3 runs ago where he won readily off a mark of 91. He has won on GD/SOFT and has won over 7F so I do not think the going will unduly inconvenience him and with De Sousa on board I think he can be ridden handy and quicken close home to take it. I have taken a slice of the 25/1 available this evening 3rd 18/1SP
By the time you reached post 9 of the thread "Ayr Gold Cup" who could have resisted these 2 on Saturday. Certainly not Islander who had £500 ew on Our Jonathan at 20/1. Even at SP these 2 winners provided a very nice 155/1 double. Just a couple of examples of the great tipping on NOT 606.
Awesome stuff on Our Jonathan Gary - to pick him out when there were still 200-odd horses engaged in the race is something else I followed the trends and managed to get 3rd place with Son of The Cat
