Await The Dawn

Is Await The Dawn a good thing for the Juddmonte International tomorrow at York? Far from it - has yet to win a Group 1 and I'm prepared to oppose it with Midday providing the going doesn't soften up further. But this is probably the weakest line-up of any Group 1 contested so far this season so it won't tell us much about Await The Dawn if he does win.

 

The six that go to post for the Juddmonte International are officially rated as follows:

1 Await The Dawn (J P O’Brien) 121
2 Twice Over (I Mongan) 123
3 Windsor Palace (J A Heffernan) 97
4 Zafisio (D Holland) 114
5 Midday (T Queally) 120
6 Roderic O’Connor (C O’Donoghue) 117

It might be dangerous to assume that Windsor Palace will set a decent pace as with half the field the Ballydoyle camp may have some tactics in mind. Could Roderic O’Connor try to make all? No doubt McCririck will be spouting about the three-year-olds.

I am inclined to disregard Zafisio as he is making his seasonal debut and only ran once last year when I suspect something was amiss.

Await The Dawn is taking a step back in trip and the ground will not be as soft as it was at Ascot. There is no rain forecast so the ground should be “Good To Soft, Good in places” as currently reported or better.

Twice Over was narrowly beaten in this last term and warmed up for this with a course-and-distance win in a Group 2 in July. Tom Queally has rightly elected to ride the mare Midday and she does seem the most likely option for those that do not fancy the favourite.

On the book, Await The Dawn is not a good thing and to live up to the hype it will have to win quite impressively.

 

Personally I would not oppose Await The Dawn. He has yet to run in a G1 so the fact he has not yet won one is irrelevant. He looks a real powerhouse and I expect him to prove too strong for these.

 

In the end I left the race alone but I thought the way that punters piled onto the favourite was madness. As I was at the track, I missed the latest episode of the O'Brien Excuse Book. Did they get him off his mobile for long enough to come up with something to get us laughing on TV?

 

Not heard of any excuses for today's AOB runners - must be trying to come up with some new ones

 

His latest excuse was that he left ATD to long without a run, another pile of crap, like the excuse at Ascot for SYT

 

Shergar - Ascot he said he undercooked SYT when he lost to Rewilding...he then came out and beat Workforce in the Eclipse! Yes, today with ATD could well be an excuse but shall we see if he turns him out again soon between now and the Breeders Cup? If he does and he wins - as SYT did, and then goes onto do well in America then the 'crap' post could look foolish!
I am still grinning at the in depth "If Henry Cecil had a brain..." one from yesterday to be honest!

 

I am beginning to wonder about AOB. The excuses he comes out with are effectively saying he doesn't know how to bring a horse to the track and only knows whether he has under/over trained or raced too close together/too far apart etc, after the horse has run. Easier said than done but isn't the job of the trainer to get the horse ready for the day? If his excuses were to have been (preferably before the race to give them more credibility) "His prime target is a race next month and his training has been geared to that so he won't be 100% today" or "We would have really liked to have got another race into him before today so he might not be fully tuned up" I could understand it. But he gives the impression he's not actually aware until after the event.

 

Yes QM - I agree that is a very poor excuse. AOB obviously knows how to get horses ready for a big race - his track record proves that. These excuses are purely made for business reasons, to preserve the reputation and stud value of the horses. I could not see ATW getting beat and was simply wrong about that. The jockey did not help but the horse was comprehensively beaten and there can be no excuse.

 

Flyingbolt.....So Sri Putra isn't a valid formline for both of SYTs runs in the POW and Eclipse, there is no form line to suggest he improved from either race, the only one is Sri Putra and SYT was a lengh worse off in the Eclipse with Sri Putra. Workforce has hardly flourished this season, he got delt with by Nathaniel (who I also tipped up) alot easier than SYT beat him, and Nathaniel faced Workforce over his best trip. Your another who buys into the Coolmoore hype, don't you get it? They talk **** to increase horse's stud value, that's all they care about.

Look at the bull**** with Canford Cliffs, even PN has mentioned that the roumer is CC is perfectly fine. They are a bunch of idiots trying to protect the expensive investments they've made, and anyone who buys any of it, is a bigger idiot than they are!

As it turns out I was spot on about Twice Over being a better horse than Midday, so yes if Henry Cecil had a brain he would have had Midday in the Yorkshire Oaks, and he would have had a G1 double, judging by how well Midday ran in defeat today

 

isnt that maybe a tip in itself? that he feels Vita Nova is good enough to do the business in yorkshire oaks?

 

Dont see anything in Vita Nova's form to suggest she can beat the likes of Blue Bunting

 

Await The Dawn came back with a temperature.

 

She is very nice fillie, shame she has that one blip on her CV in the Oaks. Will be interesting to see where they go next with her, if she goes for the Leger, she has a good chance. Not sure she will be quite good enough for the Arc, but she could well be good enough for the BC turf, who knows

 

Whilst the punters were delighted to see the favourite Blue Bunting steered home by Frankie and the Ladies' Day mutton thronged around the winner's enclosure to see him leap off it, I think that merely confirmed that this year's three-year-old middle distance fillies are a moderate bunch.

Three or four of these fillies have met in several of the Group 1 contests and there has been little between them. Runner-up Vita Nova would probably have won the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks last time had the saddle not slipped and she pushed the double Classic winner all the way to the line. Clearly Sir Henry's filly is improving but his Midday would have been an odds-on shot for the Yorkshire Oaks double had she gone to post.

When Dettori was asked about the St Leger after the race, he did not answer the question, suggesting that punters who have backed her for the final Classic had better have got bets "with a run" because she may not be there. Personally, I do not think she will stay so she will be elsewhere next time.

Perhaps somebody can explain to me why both Blue Bunting and Laughing Lashes were described in the racecard as "grey or roan" (Gr or Ro) when the latter is clearly grey and the former is virtually bay (presumably with grey bits somewhere).

Fulkes, I think you got my comments mixed up with somebody else's comments. I did not hear any excuses, I just asked if O'Brien had given some on TV - I did not see the TV coverage as I was at the course.

 

The colouring of horses and their descriptions is a curious and confusing subject.

The colours you will see in racing are bay, chestnut, grey and black.

Bay is anything from light brown to very dark brown. The crucial factor is that a bay has black points (mane, tail and lower legs).

Chestnut is a reddish body colour but has no black whatsoever. It is possible for a chestnut and a bay to be effectively the same colour, but the bay have the necessary black points and the chestnut not. A particularly dark chestnut is described as liver chestnut. Denman would be an obvious example.

Grey is anything with any white hair. For example, you will notice that Blue Bunting has a slight greyish tint to her tail. A grey must also have black skin. A white horse has pink skin and is very rare. A grey can start out as a very dark brown in colour, and as they age they tend to get whiter in colour. A good example would be the Lipizzaner breed. They end up as white greys but are all brown as foals.

Black is fairly obvious i think!

I hope that helps.

 

Shergar - Your talking complete bollocks! He entered them both because they were the first two home and he pretty much knew they would be! £175,000 to win the Yorkshire Oaks - been there done it - against possibility of beating the colts and winning £370,000? She ended up with £150k for second!
No interest in whatever was said about Canford Cliffs - top class miler and far far better than your vinegar stroke in Dick Turpin who has proven to be...ahem..."overhyped"!
Twice Over was a better horse at York on G/S yesterday! On better ground he wouldn't have caught Midday buy I guess you need to protect your winner after two losers!

 

QM....I think it's fair to say that Blue Bunting is the best 3yo fillie, by quite away. I also think its fair to say Sariska and Snow Fairy where the best of there generations, both of whom were beaten in the Yorkshire Oaks, so I think your being a little unfair in regards the standard of the 3yos this season.

As for the Leger, I'd have to agree the trip is a worry, she is a guineas winner afterall, so it does make you wonder wether she could stay the Leger trip, I'd still be happy to take the risk if she was 5s or bigger come the day

 

I think she will stay in the Leger, she just keeps finding and finding and has been outpaced over 1m4 3 times now so the trip shouldnt be a problem. She won a very weak Guineas, I know 1 or 2 have come out the race and improved at different trips but on the day, it was a very weak Guineas.