Just to pass the time I've been through the Championship Predictor up to the end of 2011. The table I was left with is as follows. Teams have each played 24 games, with the exception of Birmingham (22) and Ipswich and Portsmouth (23). The figure in brackets by the position is the current position and the one in brackets after the points is the number of points I have each team picking up between now and then. 1 (2) Middlesbrough 50 (26) 2 (1) Southampton 48 (21) ---------------------------- 3 (4) West Ham 45 (24) 4 (6) Derby County 44 (23) 5 (3) Crystal Palace 41 (18) 6 (5) Leeds Utd 40 (19) ---------------------------- 7 (8) Cardiff City 40 (20) 8 (13) Leicester 40 (21) 9 (9) Ipswich Town 40 (20) 10 (14) Birmingham 39 (22) 11 (12) Brighton 35 (16) 12 (7) Hull City 32 (11) 13 (15) Reading 29 (12) 14 (17) Burnley 28 (13) 15 (11) Blackpool 28 (9) 16 (16) Portsmouth 26 (11) 17 (22) Watford 26 (16) 18 (10) Peterborough 25 (6) 19 (18) Barnsley 25 (10) 20 (19) Nottm Forest 24 (10) 21 (21) Coventry 23 (12) ----------------------------- 22 (20) Millwall 20 (8) 23 (23) Doncaster 17 (9) 24 (24) Bristol City 12 (6) I haven't kept a record of all results so don't ask me who dropped points against whom, but I can tell you that I put a diplomatic draw at Fratton park on the 18th December!
Someone who is realistic Personally I think we'll drop into the playoffs by Christmas but my heart hope we achieve what you have there I think we'll beat Midds at home BUT start to drop on form over the next 2 months. Andy
In truth, I think DevonF has probably got it about right, or maybe even a bit optimistic, Saints wise. I reckon Boro aren't the team to be on top though. I'll have a look at the fixtures, at some point, and possibly do the Predictor, upto and including the last match of 2011. We'll see how it compares.
I did a similar thing yesterday (instead of going up to the new year, it did it up until everyone had played everyone once - which is one round of games earlier than your table Devon, plus the Brum vs Ipswich and Brum vs Pompey games later in the season). 1.Saints 49 2.West Ham 46 3.Boro 45 4.Leeds 42 5.Leicester 40 6.Brum 39 7.Brighton 39 8.Cardiff 38 9.Palace 37 10.Hull 37 11.Ipswich 37 12.Blackpool 36 13.Forest 36 14.Derby 35 15.Reading 29 16.P'boro 25 17.Burnley 25 18.Pompey 24 19.Barnsley 22 20.Millwall 20 21.Watford 14 22.Doncaster 14 23.Coventry 13 24.Bristol City 7
OK, did the Predictor, and surprised myself. I mentioned earlier that I didn't think Boro were the team to be in top place. Seeing their fixtures did confirm that to me. Of course, I had to play very fair with Saints, and all the teams. I used the fact that Reading have been getting themselves into a bit of form; that Leicester occasionally stutter; that Peterborough are perennially iffy away from home, that Millwall are always harder to beat than you think, etc... All the traits were in place, for each team. The table I got was rather astonishing, so I went back and actually downgraded Saints points by making them lose the occasional away match. DevonF will be happy, as I gave Pompey the bragging rights, I thought it was the best thing I could do. I also made Saints hiccup at a couple of matches. One thing was consistent - Saints won at home. The single overriding point that has come out of doing the Predictor, after seeing the various fixtures go by, was that now I believe Saints will be promoted. If, and it's a big if, we can maintain our form, there or thereabouts. We don't even need to improve..! If we can continue to grind out results on poor pitches, in the bleak midwinter of January, and not be plagued with injuries, etc... then Saints can get promotion, and possibly win the Championship along with it. I had a peek at the fixtures into the New Year, and some of them are going to be tough. The Brightons, Leeds, etc.. away, type stuff. We can afford to trip once or twice and still do this. So, I've officially changed my opinion. The very minimum I'm expecting now is playoffs, but I'm very much thinking top two, by the end. BTW, I looked at evening up all the fixtures, but as those teams that had finished less games were not playing a significant part [ie, out of the top 6] I didn't feature them. Make up your own mind where there they would be, otherwise. I was kind to Pompey.
I hate the predictor. I did it a couple of seasons ago when we were last in the Championship and predicted we'd get relegated. Felt personally responsible when we were, although I probably should have blamed the Dutch experiment!
