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August 29th Daily Thread- Bank Holiday Monday

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by TopClass, Aug 29, 2011.

  1. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    Morning all, some decent if not spectacular racing today, so let's find a winner.

    2.00 Epsom: GULF OF ALASKA 5/1 (projected)- Hit a flatspot mid race on debut before staying on again into 3rd. Should be more clued up this time and with Buick booked, a bold bid might be expected.

    3.00 Ripon: ALBERT BRIDGE 7/2- Was entered in the Derby as a 2 Y O and is obviously expected to be much better at 3. Very useful pedigree and whilst he will excel over further, this is a very winnable maiden for a horse who should progress to be better than a mark of 82, which is the standard set by QUADRANT in this field.

    3.35 Ripon: LORD AERYN 20/1 Better than some of the bare results, can be very useful on its day. Down 1lb and with Lee Topliss claiming another 3lb, I rate this one as dangerous to ignore. I like Topliss in big field handicaps and it will take a good ride to win, but I can see this coming late.

    3.40 Epsom: SPANISH DUKE 11/2 The unluckest horse in the race at Goodwood, repeatedly denied a clear run after travelling supremely well on the inside in what was a very good race. Top class on his day and up to this level. Perferct ground conditions (Does not like it quick at all) and if on the top of its game can notch up another course and distance win.

    4.10 Ripon: GERFALCON 7/1- Ran an excellent 3rd at York behind the very useful Bogart and Miss Work Of Art, and ought to make its presence felt in this field. Form as solid as any in the field and unexposed enough to go close.


    Enjoy the day folks, take care

    -Top
     
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  2. ROTO

    ROTO Well-Known Member

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    Good luck with yours tomorrow Toppy and good to see you posting again!

    I've been busy and like the look of 5 tomorrow

    4.15 Downpatrick

    Another Annie FC 12/1 NAP


    Really like the look of P M J Doyle’s only runner tomorrow in the shape of Another Annie. This 4 year old filly has only had one start to date and to me it was a very eye catching run. Her jockey Rachel Blackmore, who takes the ride again tomorrow, dropped her way out the back and she was not given a hard race in the slightest and was virtually on the bridle for the whole way around. I believe that this run was just to build up the horse’s experience as she finished 12L behind in 4th and bar a few correctional slaps with the whip she was never once asked for any sort of real effort at all. To my eyes, Another Annie had a lot more left in the tank and looks sure to improve for that run.

    The form of that race doesn’t look very good but it was a poor maiden, as is tomorrows race, so I wouldn’t look into it that much. Although I don’t know too much about Miss Blackmore she has 1 win to her name so far so at least she is a capable jockey. The same can be said about the trainer but he’s had a couple of wins from 8 runners this year so I don’t envisage too much of a problem. I see the principle danger as The Grey Express and I really hope that she opens in double figures but I fear others will have spotted what I have. The forecast good to firm ground is an unknown as she was on Yielding ground on debut but I don’t have grave concerns. If I get near the FC odds I will be having a decent sized bet on what is the trainers only runner of the day.

    4.10 Ripon

    Compton 12/1 NB


    I don’t really understand how Compton is 12/1 tomorrow and think he is vastly overpriced. Although sure to be a very competitive Listed race, and clearly a big jump in class, I have liked a lot of what I have seen from this colts first two starts. This Colt made his debut at the start of July when he was an impressive winner by 2.5L at Windsor over 6f. The form of that race looks ok, with the 5th Miss Lahar who was 3.81L back has subsequently finished 3rd and 4th in a Group 3 and Listed race as well as having won off a mark of 95. Compton really got the hang of things in the final stages and exerted close home and was going away at the end. It was rather a catching debut and he looked as if there was a lot more to come.

    On his second and last start, Compton ran into what I consider a very nice type in Rebellious Guest who trainer George Margasson said its the 2nd best horse he’s ever had and has the scope to become the best. Compton finished 3.25L back in 2nd and although he never had a chance with the winner it was still a good performance especially considering Rebellious Guest is going to be competing in Group 1 company in the coming months. Further to this, Mehdi who finished 3/4L back in 3rd, subsequently won a valuable sales race on Saturday beating impressive Royal Ascot winner Samitar in the process. I really don’t understand how he’s a double figure price and expected him to be at least half the price he currently is. The favourite has won 2 small field Class 4 and 5 contests and although impressive 3/1 is a nuts price. Martin Lane takes the ride for the first time tomorrow and has an impressive 32% record when riding for Ralph Beckett and this unexposed colt has a really good chance of landing this tomorrow if handling the undulating track and handling the possible soft ground.
     
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  3. ROTO

    ROTO Well-Known Member

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    2.00 Epsom

    Il Pazzo FC odds 12/1

    I like the look of Mike Murphy’s Il Pazzo tomorrow who I have followed and who LTO left all form behind him when he finished a very respectable 3rd at 150/1 on his third start to date. Although he showed a bit of promise on his 2nd start before fading badly in the final furlong, the improvement was vast and although he still looked as if he wasn’t entirely at home on the racecourse he looked to have every chance until the final furlong before fading at Leicester. Although I thought that it appeared Il Pazzo wasn’t staying the 7f, which is the trip tomorrow, his trainer obviously knows more than I do and is sticking at this trip for the 3rd successive race.

    Although it is a bit of a worry that he has only run 1 good race to date, I think the first couple were littered with greenness and as a result I am willing to overlook them. The form of that race is working out quite nicely too, with the 2nd horse Devdas winning a class 4 nursery by 1.25L off a mark of 75 on Saturday and the 6th Gabrials Gift, who finished 1L behind Il Pazzo, winning by 6L at Kempton on the AW. Furthermore, the 10th that day Wyndham Wave, who finished 4L behind tomorrows selection, winning on his 2nd start by 1.25L in a Class 6 Maiden. Tomorrow Il Pazzo encounters a class 5 maiden and has a bit to find on official ratings as he has been assigned a mark of 69 and the other 2 horses in the race that have handicap marks are 70 and 78. It appears to me that the main danger will come from likely favourite Gunner Will, who has run with credit on his only 2 starts. His debut run was an excellent 4L 2nd to Talwar, who has subsequently won a Listed race and a Group 3 race very impressively and an unlucky 3L defeat in 4th LTO. Another concern I have is that the ground is currently good to soft and trainer Mike Murphy said “the quicker ground will have helped him”. With Tony Culhane taking the ride for the first time, Il Pazzo will certainly do well in nurseries in the very near future but I certainly think he is worth a small bet tomorrow at a nice price.

    3.05 Epsom

    La Fortunata 10/1


    Quite like the look of Mike Murphy’s 4 year old in the shape of La Fortunata tomorrow. This filly has been a great servant to both her trainers, registering 2 wins and 12 places from a total of 22 starts and probably still isn’t entirely exposed either. Although he disappointed LTO off this mark of 83 at Sandown when sent off joint favourite, the ground was probably too soft for her that day and I am willing to overlook that effort. If we go back 2 starts, La Fortunata ran an excellent 1L 2nd behind Secret Asset at Goodwood at the end of July off a 2lb lower mark. That day, La Fortunata was drawn very wide in stall 1 and elected to race alone for the vast majority of the race and it was an excellent effort. It may very well have been a case that La Fortunanta was running on worse ground than the rest and her effort was even better than the bare result. Even still, the form of that race is working out very nicely.

    The winner has subsequently finished 4.5L behind Hoof it and won off a 6lb higher mark in a Class 2 so La Fortunata was clearly beaten by a well handicapped horse. Further to this, a few of the other horses in behind have won off similar marks so the form looks rock solid. Further to this, she has already finished 2nd over CD off only a 1lb lower mark so winning off 83 should definitely not be out of her grasp. Moreover, on her only other start at Epsom she finished 2nd as well so she clearly likes the track. I do have a concern that, like her stable mate, she would like the ground a little quicker than whats currents forecast so I will be hoping the sun comes out tomorrow. Although it will require a career best effort, the very consistent La Fortunata seems to be overpriced as a result of her recently exploits and course form. Mike Murphy is in decent form this year and I am hoping that Tony Culhane can lead this improving 4 year old home in front.

    3.35 Ripon

    Osteopathic Remedy 11/1


    Like the look of 7 year old Osteopathic Remedy who clearly gets targeted for this race every year and who boasts an excellent effort in this race winning it twice (2010 and 2008) and finishing 3rd in 2009. Michael Dods’ gelding bounced back to form when winning LTO off a mark of 90 as he benefitted from leniency from the handicapper after a few poor efforts. His victory was impressive as he beat Mujaadel by 1.25L. Whats perhaps more impressive is that the win came on good/good to firm as Osteopathic Remedy clearly likes the ground with a fair bit of give in it and definitely performs best in it. With the ground currently declared soft, he is sure to relish the conditions. Although the form of that race doesn’t look anything great, I still think the performance was good and definitely showed that the gelding still has his ability. He is up 4lb for that and I really don’t think this should be enough to stop him winning as he has won off a mark of 92 before.

    Although requiring a career best effort, I really think Osteopathic Remedy should have an excellent chance tomorrow. Robert Winston takes the ride having partnering him to victory LTO which is a definite positive. He has a fantastic record in the race, clearly acts well at Ripon and should have ground conditions that will suit him more than most of the field. Michael Dods is in good form recently and although Osteopathic Remedy will need a career best to win this, I think he has an excellent chance of winning this for the 3rd time in 4 years.
     
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  4. rounders

    rounders Member

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    Bangor
    5.45
    Pampelone
    Charlie Longsdon, Kielen Woods, bumper. Usually means it's a nailed on first three finish. An ex Henderson bumper horse who ran two creditable races a year ago and was outclassed in Ireland the other time.

    The favourite has a penalty to overcome which is very tough. Definitely one to take on.

    Confident e/w bet. Forecast 8/1.
     
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  5. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    Morning, troops. Happy Bank Holiday. It’s Derby Day at Epsom today (well of the amateur variety) but the old racecourse executive there must be fuming what with only 8 entries and amongst the riding ranks not so much as an Honourable or even a double-barrelled surname! I can’t recommend anything in that race but I will steer my regular readers towards:

    Honoured (3.25 Bangor) - has ever a horse been better named as this one is indeed honoured - he’s trained by Mr Henderson. Makes his hurdling bow today and although only rated in the 50’s on the flat displayed a few positive signs on the level including a very nice 2nd to Plan A this time last year. He receives weight all round and his opponents don’t look the best bunch ever.

    Arctic Reach (5.05 Warwick) - an intriguing runner who has been placed in his last 4 flat races but it is over hurdles where he has excelled this summer with form of -121 in juvenile heats. Is clearly most progressive at the moment and a flat mark of just 47 makes him look thrown in when considering his all round form.

    Pampelonne (5.45 Bangor) - although his bumper form reads a not too impressive 50/5- this one has shown promise in heats behind Kid Cassidy and Dream Performance when trained by Mr Henderson. Although horses very rarely leave the latter and achieve anything this one very well could in the hands of Mr Henderson’s former assistant, old Charlie Longsdon.

    Good luck to all who wager today.
     
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  6. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    I’m not going to even attempt to wade through all those runners today- and try and pick a winner. I’ll leave that to the more informed members of our Forum.
    I’ll just digress somewhat and make one or two comments about a great weekend’s sport just gone.......

    Athletics.
    Hard lines, Mo Farah! What a great finish and credit to the Ethiopian as well. Fantastic last lap.
    Alas, Usain twitched and shot his bolt! As Arnie said....”I’ll be back!”

    Formula One.
    Most exciting race of the season to watch. What a great circuit Spa is!
    Great drives from so many of them, but Cyclonic’s protégé, Mark Webber, needs to wake up at the start!

    Golf.
    Fantastic finish to the golf at Gleneagles. Congrats to Bjorn- proves the oldies can still do it.

    Football.
    Manchester on top of the world!
    Arsene Wenger looked like a man who had taken the wrong anti-depressants. Joint favourite with the Blackburn manager for the next sacking.

    Rugby League.
    Great final. Wigan just about deserved it but Leeds put up a great comeback.

    Members.....have a go at that lot!
     
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  7. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Morning all you lazy buggers in the UK ........... enjoy your bank holiday <ok>

    Tam there were indeed some remarkable sporting events at the weekend and the disqualification of Bolt must win the prizes "Most Stupid Rule Change Ever" and "Rule Tinkering Most Likely To Alienate Fans".

    Hard to quantify Arsenal's display as ManU seemed to have one of those days where everything was flying into the top corner, coupled with some shoddy defending by Arsenal. Is this really the club that used to have Adams and Bould at the back? It's tempting to say Wenger has "lost the dressing room" because the team just didn't look bothered. His days may well be numbered.

    On the racing front I have had a Heinz on AP McCoy's 6 mounts at Bangor today - he has a couple ofr Jonjo but has also picked up some nice looking rides from the unfortunate Jason Maguire. Go Champ!!!!
     
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  8. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Tamerlo: No, can't beat that! Felt very sorry for Mo, he ran a great race and I thought he had done everything right, oh well, he can be proud of his silver though. Pleased Wigan won, but quite a few hairline decisions went their way? Great fightback by Leeds. As for the great Usain, just shows you that a guy can showboat too much sometimes?

    Just too much racing for me today. The race that interests me, strangely, is the 16:15 at Cartmel. Small field but still (as Cyclonic pointed out to me) a lottery. Keighley has left Snake Charmer up there after running third there around 4-days ago. Not keen on long-distance hurdlers running again after a really short break: this applies however to about four of them. Still no bet for me at the moment, although Knight Valliant appeals a bit. This could be a good opportunity for a nice aftertimer!............<laugh>

    Very best of luck today to all who might be having a wager! <ok>

    (This cooler weather is just booootiful............:emoticon-0103-cool:).
     
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  9. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    RedDeer not interested in Soul Magic at Cartmel today? Won very well for you t'other day
     
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  10. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Nap vote for me today is Resurge in the 3.40 at Epsom - always runs a stone better at Epsom than anywhere else <ok>
     
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  11. yorkies_boy

    yorkies_boy Member

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    Morning all

    Agreed, a great weekend of sport......even the owls got a win!!
    Went to Beverley races yesterday and had 3 winners<party>

    Nice little double for me today

    WARCROWN 2.15 Newcastle 5/4
    REDACT 4.10 Ripon 3/1

    Good luck all
     
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  12. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Thanks Oddy, hadn't got to Soul Magic yet, so many races to wade through. He could well be on a four-timer, very useful chaser in his class. Might leave it alone today, looks tough. Good luck with your bets if you have a go! <ok>
     
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  13. Cyclonic

    Cyclonic Well Hung Member

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    Yorkie, going into the Weatherbys Super Sprint, I thought Redact was really impressive piece of work, his fourth that day was a wonderful run. If he's half as good as I'd like him to be, he'll have to win today. I'll have my fingers crossed for you mate. <ok>
     
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  14. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    I see Frank Carson has had a successful cancer op at the age of 84. I didn't realise he was so old and still doing stand-up. Well done that man <applause>
     
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  15. yorkies_boy

    yorkies_boy Member

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    Cheers Cyc<ok>
     
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  16. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    I like Mister Musicmaster in the big juvenile "sprint", the key being the softer ground. I thought he ran a big race last time out in the nursery at York (giving weight to front two) and has showed that he relishes this softer ground. I have doubts on most of the field on this ground and I don't think Mister Musicmaster should be overlooked here. 18/1 is very fair for him.
     
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  17. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Good for Frank, here's a clip of him. Great guy!:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80zDslFy0Fg
     
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  18. heisenburg

    heisenburg Well-Known Member

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    Dan Noir 4.55 Curr
    Joe Elie 6.00 Cur

    2 that i like and are running in to a bit of form 16s &5s with PP singles EW and DOUBLE

    Stay Frosty
     
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  19. Cyclonic

    Cyclonic Well Hung Member

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    That was some kind of race Nass. Excellent run the winner, nice run your horse, great value as you said.
     
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  20. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    Tamerlo - Its what Bank Holidays were made for, big sporting events and great sporting battles...

    Shame about Bolt and Mo...
    Glad Wigan won in what was a great game of rugby...
    Button and the old Kaiser Shcumy both raced well... both making up big grid postions to earn good points..
    Missed the golf, but my mate won on Dustin Johnson at 33's to give him a nioce weekend...
    Not sure how to judge the Mancs v Gunners... i just think that as good as the mancs were, the gunners were equally as bad... But 8-2 will help the Wenger out brigade... Big problems at Arsenal that wont change over night. Looks a 2 horse race now, only 3 weeks into the season...
    And although im not a big T20 fan, the cricket and drama of the 2 semis was just brilliantly nail biting...
    The England rugby team flattered to decieve in their win, but im looking forward to the World Cup later this month...
    Oh, and the horse racingwas good also...!!!

    All in all my remote needed new batterys after all the flicking ive done watching all the sporting fare on show this weekend...

    Now to see if i can find a winner out of all these racing cards this morning...!!!
     
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