Article: The Run In, Survival Edition | Southampton FC, Football

Made a similar thread last year...although then it was concerned with the top of the table, rather than the bottom. For the moment, it'll only be the bottom six teams; I might update it with Norwich/West Ham/Fulham later. Probably not, but I might.

For the sake of reference, the average points total for all teams at this point is 32.25.

Newcastle

Home games remaining: 7.
Away games remaining: 7.
Other competitions: Europa knockouts, playing Metalist.
Games against the bottom six: Southampton (home), Wigan (away), QPR (away).

Average points total of opponents, all games: 30.
Average points total of opponents, home games: 32.7.
Average points total of opponents, away games: 27.3.

Southampton

Home games remaining: 7.
Away games remaining: 7.
Other competitions: None.
Games against the bottom six: Wigan (away), Newcastle (away), QPR (home), Reading (away).

Average points total of opponents, all games: 31.1.
Average points total of opponents, home games: 34.3.
Average points total of opponents, away games: 28.

Reading

Home games remaining: 7.
Away games remaining: 7.
Other competitions: None.
Games against the bottom six: Wigan (home), Villa (home), Southampton (home), QPR (home).

Average points total of opponents, all games: 31.8.
Average points total of opponents, home games: 27.9.
Average points total of opponents, away games: 35.7.

Wigan

Home games remaining: 7.
Away games remaining: 7.
Other competitions: FA Cup Fifth Round, away at Huddersfield/Leicester.
Games against the bottom six: Southampton (home), Reading (away), Newcastle (home), QPR (away), Villa (home).

Average points total of opponents, all games: 31.1.
Average points total of opponents, home games: 28.9.
Average points total of opponents, away games: 33.3.

Aston Villa

Home games remaining: 7.
Away games remaining: 7.
Other competitions: None.
Games against the bottom six: Reading (away), QPR (home), Wigan (away).

Average points total of opponents, all games: 33.4.
Average points total of opponents, home games: 33.3.
Average points total of opponents, away games: 33.6.

QPR

Home games remaining: 7.
Away games remaining: 7.
Other competitions: None.
Games against the bottom six: Southampton (away), Villa (away) Wigan (home), Reading (away), Newcastle (home).

Average points total of opponents, all games: 30.6
Average points total of opponents, home games: 32.4.
Average points total of opponents, away games: 28.7.

Overall:

Newcastle - 30
QPR - 30.6
Southampton - 31.1
Wigan - 31.1
Reading - 31.8
Aston Villa - 33.4

Home:

Reading - 27.9
Wigan - 28.9
QPR - 32.4
Newcastle - 32.7
Aston Villa - 33.3
Southampton - 34.3

Away:

Newcastle - 27.3
Southampton - 28
QPR - 28.7
Wigan - 33.3
Aston Villa - 33.6
Reading - 35.7

A couple things stand out:

- By virtue of already losing several games against the bottom half of the table, Villa is in some real trouble...they are going to have to make headway against the most difficult remaining schedule, with only one home six-pointer remaining. They're the only team facing an above-average points total from this point forward; while the others in the bottom six have chalked off a couple difficult match-ups apiece, Villa still have to face every member of the top seven save Tottenham. Methinks they aren't surviving on goal differential.

- Reading will likely sink or swim depending on their performance at home; they play four of the bottom six at Majeski, and three wins from those four will leave them in extremely good shape, both boosting their points total and likely lowering the drop line by a full three points.

- We have the opposite. Whereas Reading, and to a lesser extent Wigan, have a set of absolutely crucial games at home and several away where they'll be at long odds to get anything, we have a decent chance to take something from virtually every away contest...but some really grueling fights at home. It's a glass half-full/half-empty scenario; play well at home and maintain our recent form away, we might end up being well clear of the drop line by the end of the season. Fail to get anything against the giants coming to St. Mary's, and fail to win some of those six-pointers away, and we're going to be in real trouble.

 

I dream of a season, not fighting for anything.
The last three years have been amazing, but god, how nice would a mid table nothingness feel!

Good post, I'm sure it will draw plenty of speculation.

 

17th or better is still my hoped for target.

 

We ran Man United close at Old Trafford. That should give the players the confidence and self-belief that we are capable of picking up points from anyone, particularly at home. City will not be looking forward to coming to SMS that's for sure.

 

I'll stick by my mid-table prediction. Anything between 11th and 15th, me.

 

I said 14th at the start of the season so I'll stick with that.

 

Interesting analysis I like the way you weight the probabilities based on the collective form of the opponents.

Will be interesting to see how the story unfolds on Saturday.

 

It is going to the wire..whatever, it should be another good game Saturday both needing the points......It will go to the team (defensive errors aside) who has the courage to reach out and take it....personally me thinks a score draw......but it could go either way. May depend who scores first........

 

Let it be said, we are all very level headed on here!

 

Great thread Schad. Out of interest, how did the analysis last season match up to the final day reality?

 

Heh, I wasn't actually sure, so I dug up the thread and checked.

Table as it stood when I made that thread:

West Ham - 57 points.
Saints - 56 points.
Cardiff - 53 points.
Blackpool - 52 points.
Birmingham - 51 points.
Reading - 51 points.
Hull - 50 points.
Middlesbrough - 50 points.


Average points of opponents:

Saints - 39.7
Birmingham - 40.5
Hull - 41.7
Reading - 42.3
Cardiff - 42.5
Blackpool - 42.6
Middlesbrough - 43.3
West Ham - 43.7

Points-per-game taken from that point forward:

Reading - 2.38
Saints - 2.13
West Ham - 1.81
Birmingham - 1.56
Blackpool - 1.53
Cardiff - 1.47
Middlebrough - 1.40
Hull - 1.13


So:

We had the easiest run in, and ended up second-best in points despite a handful of pretty bad results.
West Ham had the hardest run in, and did pretty well considering, but not well enough for autos.
Reading went completely berserk, demolishing everything in sight with a middle-of-the road strength of schedule.
Birmingham had the second-easiest run, and got middling results.
Cardiff and Blackpool had average runs, and got an average number of points.
Boro had a tough run, and it was enough to leave them five points adrift by the end.
Hull just absolutely imploded.


Long story short: it's not determinative, but there's some correlation...our easier schedule relative the pack was pretty important in building the gap over West Ham, and remaining in the automatic promotion spots, even after the late-season losses to Blackpool/Reading/Boro; we lost against the better teams (plus the infamous draw against Pompey), but had done enough damage against teams lower in the table to take second.