I posted a new thread only for the servers to fail and delete it. So I'll try again. As some of you know from yesterdays thread, I have freshened up my approach and am trialling a format as is follows: BEST CHANCE OF THE DAY: KINGLET 11/10 - 2.40 Salisbury LONGSHOT OF THE DAY-MOUNTAIN HIKER 8/1 5.30 Salisbury VALUE OF THE DAY (in relation to the horses chance of winning)-SAJWAH 7/1 3.50 Salisbury LAY OF THE DAY: LORDOFTHESHADOWS (3/1) 2.40 Salisbury Kinglet Anyone who saw the bloodless victory of Most Improved last week knows that Kinglet beat a very good sort on debut. The fancy entries for once seem totally justified and if building on his first run it should win here before going on to contest better things before the flat season ends. The strength of Kinglet's form makes this a good laying opportunity with regards to Lordoftheshadows, who whilst setting a tall standard, seems to find one too good and hopefully Kinglet can provide the class to land both a backing and laying success in the same race. Mountain Hiker It is unsurprising to see the big name Godolphin and Johnson pair at the top of the market in the shape of SABOTAGE and COLOUR VISION, as the pair are both rated over 100 and on official figures are on more favourable terms than would be the case in a handicap. However, you get the impression they have reached their 'ceiling' and whilst we know what we are going to get from them, I can't help but feel an unexposed sort can see them off. I think we may have this in the shape of Jeremy Noseda's Mountain Hiker, who prior to disappointing on softer ground behind the well handicapped KEYS last time out, had posted two very unlucky efforts in hot handicaps and was going the right way, progressing nicely from solid maiden form. I expect George Baker to test them from the front and under a smart ride, it will take a good one to pass him and I just don't see any unexposed, top horses to come out of the clouds here. A very lively outsider bet. Sajwah Sajwah possesses a great deal of ability and was back on track with a staying on 5th in the Cherry Hinton last time, behind Gamilati. Inetrobil strikes me as a horse who has reached its ceiling and is a good measuring stick, even though down in class today. The Hannon horse Dreamwriter was visually impressive on debut but question marks remain over what it really beat. Sajwah may have been on the wrong side of the track last time and if settling in midfield and getting a clear run, should really get involved. However, that is easier said than done with Richard Hills in the plate! Horses Best Watched Horses that intrigue me but draw out the 'no bet banner' today are: Stature 2.40 Salisbury- I was at Chester for his intended debut and he looked a big, scopey sort and there was a fair bit of a positive about him, certainly of interest to each-way backers that day. He will undoubtedly be a better horse over a mile and a half, but I get the impression Andrew Balding thinks a fair bit of him, hence his entry today, but Andrew will be realistic enough to not expect the win. Watch how he shapes though, and put him in the notebook. Afnoon 3.15 Salisbury- I think that if this were a Hannon/Stoute/Cecil horse, his price would far shorter than the 49/1 I see on Betfair. By Street Cry out of Falmouth Stakes winner Tashawak, it has a very taking pedigree indeed and strikes me as one that can show up well. Street Cry is producing some really smart 2 Y Os over the past 12 months and given the precociousness of the dam, I would have to say this horse might possess some real class. Whether we see it further down the line like a lot of John Dunlops horses, we will have to see. Beautifully bred, though. Hope I haven't bored you too much! Please feel free to give me feedback on my new approach to posting, I would appreciate it either way Take care folks, have a great day, -TopClass
Good morning, Top Class. I think Kinglet obviously has a first rate chance, but I can't see 11/4- currently trading about 11/8 at best. Re. Sajwah, she certainly has a chance, but the form doesn't look progressive. I like the look of Mary Fildes here. She stayed on really well behind Kohala and, now back to 6 fourlongs, I think she has a great chance and is a sound Each way bet at at around 7/1. Re. Mountain Hiker, he may turn the tables on Colour Vision with a 6lb pull, but I feel Highland Castle has an outstanding chance here- he's dropped in grade after an excellent 5th to Namibian. He pulled too hard over 2 miles last time and, now over 14 furlongs, I think the 6/1 is good value. Good luck with your selections- I'm just going to have each way on my two selections.
Sorry Tops didnt see that will delete mine, mind else where Morning men Off to a funeral so wont be back on, why is there a fun in that word ? Redcar today and its dry so BPG will win, waiting word on Colonel Sherman but if it keeps dry this wins as well will text the usual suspects if any thing changes stay frosty and enjoy your life, its over quicker than you think
Morning everyone and for the new server - much better today I am really looking forward to seeing Gordon Elliot's Russian War (NAP) take on the bigger obstacles for the first time in the 2.50 at Newton Abbot. Won a listed hurdle race at Aintree before dotting up at Ayr in one of several successful raids across the Irish Sea last season. Could be a major force in staying chases this season and possible one for the 10 to follow list.
Top: For me personally i really enjoy your new approach, makes a good read and it's nice that you give positives and negatives mate As you probably know i follow Mr Baldings horses closely and had backed Stature prior to him being withdrawn after being told he was in the top 3 from the yard. Agree totally with you that he will improve for distance BUT the fact that he starts him off against thise strong opposition makes me wonder if he could in fact win! Will be a race to savour and undoubtedly supply many winners!! One for the video Nass: Why why why have you gone for that one very annoying as we never seem to get a winner when going for the same horse
A horse that went into the notebook from last night ran in the 720 Kempton. Unfancied in the betting against a Skeletor hotpot with Mr Fallon in the plate DARSAN was very slowly away, ran wide but once the penny dropped this one ran home strongly to finish third. Should win NTO as he was from a yard that are not known for debutant winners (Chris Wall).
I enjoy Salisbury but the racing is not too good today. However a couple catch the eye: 350: Best bet of the day is INETROBIL to regain winning ways now she has been dropped in class. The Norths best jockey takes the ride so she will not lose for the want of him trying. Anything around the 5/1 mark is good value IMO. 520Red: Miss Ferney has dropped down to a very nice and winning mark BUT performs best on a sound surface so the gd/soft will not suit. However she ran a nice race at the Bridge LTO so is running into form from this good mark. 550Red: Although Danboro gets info direct from this yard for me Broctune Papa Gio is the LAY of the day. Wins infrequently and never at a short price like today and is up to a very high mark indeed. I hope I am wrong but i just cannot see him winning or even placing today! Be Lucky all who play
Gaz, stop sponging Did anyone see the lucky last yesterday evening? Its one for the purists hope the lad is ok.
I disagree GDC I think that is a cracking card at Salisbury this afternoon. Nice maiden,Novice Stakes, Listed heat and two well above average handicaps (well one conditions race ) hard to please you chap
Nass: Maybe today is the day for rectifying the previous near misses when we agree on one if not it is all your fault
Nass: That maiden at 315 should supply a good few winners for the rest of this season and next!! Some nice looking sorts on breeding there
Morning, all. Very nice racing today with a Listed heat, decent looking maidens, quality handicaps and, to use a culinery term, the pièce de résistance another fixture at God’s own racecourse, Newton Abbot. I will nominate: Firdaws (3.15 Salisbury) – exceptionally bred filly who’s dam won the Oaks and granddam the 1,000 Guineas and Oaks. Ran nicely on debut to be beaten just a head, at Newbury, in a strong maiden. Should have come on considerably for that effort and can take this before going on to much, much better things. Romeo Americo (4.35 Newton Abbot) – I was at God’s own racecourse when this one made his debut 11 days ago. Everything was going very nicely for him, on that occasion, until turning into the home straight for the final time. At this point unfortunately he veered badly left and unseated his rider. The race had developed into a 2 horse affair at that stage and although Romeo Americo probably wouldn’t have beaten the eventually winner (Johns Spirit of Jonjo O’Neill who won by 21 lengths) he most certainly would have been a very clear 2nd. With this most promising run behind him (while promising until he unseated!) Romeo Americo should be extremely hard to beat here. My regular readers may detect that I am quite bullish re this pair and would not put the more adventurous of them off an old double.
Morning gents, i hope we are all well today. Looking a grest day out there ans lets hope for some good racing to go with it. Havnt checked the cards yet but one or two have caught my eye at first glance... Topclass - A good write up and good info for those who choose to follow your ideas. Also i like what youve done with the selections of Best, Value, Long and Lay chances... Might try and have a go myself... Good luck to all who play today...
Nass: I hope my lay is wrong as BPG is one of Dans favourite horses i just think the handicapper may have caught him now. In the bumper at NA Charlie Longsdon introduces a very nicely bred type in H'Ella Petite. Mr Longsdon is very capable of producing a FTO winner in this sphere and this one is well related
Morning gentlemen. Two fantastic priced winners in two successive days. Fabulous. However, I find that today nothing sticks out at me as a dead cert like the 66/1 and 9/1 winners I have supplied over the course of the last two days (to my army of fans who were on.... you're welcome chaps). Nevertheless, I believe that I must make a selection so 'the boys' can have a chance to play up their winnings. As such Inetrobil seems like a fantastic each way proposition at 11/2 at Salisbury in the 3.50 and the debutante bumper performer H'ella Pettite at 4/1 looks like and each way steal in the 4.35 at Newton Abbot. This looks like a realy good bumper and chasing prospect on paper and I'd much rather back H'ella Pettite each way rather than back Romeo Americo to win given that it competed in a very weak bumper last time out.
Stumbled across a good article on the web this morning about previous grand national winners dating back to 1890s! interesting stuff! http://www.sportsbookguardian.com/news/1895_grand_national_result_wild_man_from_borneo
