Best chance of the day: 3.35 Haydock: DREAM AHEAD 5/1 Value Seeker: 3.45 Ascot FULGUR 7/1 Longshot 3.15 Ascpt- AL KHALEEJ 14/1 Lay of the Day 2.05 BIG JOHNNY D 4/1 DREAM AHEAD The class act in the field, optimum distance, best on official figures. If putting the French blip behind him, has to go very, very close. Nothing in the field that is an unknown- if he is at his best, he wins. FULGUR Highly rated and proved he was a good horse when beating Roger Varian's Mijhaar, who is smart. His 5th at Goodwood behind some good types is a good effort- Goodwood isn't easy for every horse and back on a flatter track I expect a smarter effort today. Fallon is going hell for leather of late, even if not the force of old, and I would hope for a big run. AL KHALEEJ Looks to be dropping back towards a realistic mark and running off 9 stone 2 tomorrow looks pretty fair. He has shaped in form coming off the pace on a couple of occasions this year, but was probably handicapped out of things and too far off the pace. 1lb higher than winning well off 95 last season, and can give us a run for our money at a nice price. BIG JOHNNY D 4/1 Made a promising debut in behind Kinglet and Most Improved, but the form of the Hills stable sees me side with CRYPTIC CHOICE to get the better of him having been hampered when just behind Big Johnny D on debut. There are also one or two nice newcomers that can make things even harder for him. Enjoy your weekend folks, -Top
My selections for the races on tv tomorrow; Ascot- 15.15- Eton Rifles 15.40- Parlour Games Kempton- 14.15- Harris Tweed (NAP) 14.45- Primevil Haydock- 14.00- Dark Promise 14.30- Blissful Moment 15.00- Zero Money 15.35- Dream Aheads & Bewitched e/w
Dream Ahead (USA) please log in to view this image 15:35 Haydock Senate Majority (GB) please log in to view this image 15:05 Musselburgh Ingleby Exceed (IRE) please log in to view this image 16:35 Thirsk Downhill Skier (IRE) please log in to view this image 17:35 Thirsk Swift Alhaarth (IRE) please log in to view this image 15:45 Ascot Saigon (GB) please log in to view this image 16:25 Kempton Iron Major (IRE) please log in to view this image 18:10 Leopardstown A few selections I like from my GG alert. I have done singles and doubles for Dream Ahead and Saigon. I'm not sure what to do with the rest yet.
Have to say what a lovely card at Kempton for once. Here are some selections from that venue: 2.45 - Chapter and Verse 14/1- Last years winner, bags of ability and a danger to all if breaking on terms. 4.25- Shumoos 3/1- If you can attribute its poor performance at York to the ground, it must have a chance of bouncing back. The form of its debut is outstanding.
What a fantastic card it is indeed at Kempton Toppy! Completely agree with you about Chapter and Verse 14/1. He won the race with absolute bundles in hand off 6lb higher mark and the fact he was heavily supported LTO (missed the kick, hands and heels thereafter) leads me to believe he is in good form for my favourite Mike Murphy. Bennandonner ceratinly is weighted to make the frame but I'll stick with having a bet on the latter. I fancy the vast majority of the Murphy runners tomorrow too. 2.05 Ascot Il Pazzo FC odds 12/1 (currently 50s on the exchanges) I like the look of Mike Murphy’s Il Pazzo tomorrow who I liked LTO when he left all form behind him when he finished a very respectable 3rd at 150/1 on his third start to date. Although he showed a bit of promise on his 2nd start before fading badly in the final furlong, the improvement was vast and although he still looked as if he wasn’t entirely at home on the racecourse he looked to have every chance until the final furlong before fading at Leicester. Although I thought that it appeared Il Pazzo wasn’t staying the 7f, which is the trip tomorrow, his trainer obviously knows more than I do and is sticking at this trip for the 3rd successive race. Although it is a bit of a worry that he has only run 1 good race to date, I think the first couple were littered with greenness and as a result I am willing to overlook them. The form of that race is working out quite nicely too, with the 2nd horse Devdas winning a class 4 nursery by 1.25L off a mark of 75 on Saturday and the 6th Gabrials Gift, who finished 1L behind Il Pazzo, winning by 6L at Kempton on the AW. Furthermore, the 10th that day Wyndham Wave, who finished 4L behind tomorrows selection, winning on his 2nd start by 1.25L in a Class 6 Maiden. Tomorrow Il Pazzo encounters a class 4 with several debutants from powerful yards so I wont be having a huge bet.Another concern I have is that the ground is currently good and trainer Mike Murphy said “the quicker ground will have helped him”. With Tony Culhane taking the ride for the first time, Il Pazzo will certainly do well in nurseries in the very near future but I certainly think he is worth a small bet tomorrow at a nice price. 3.30 Thirsk Hot Rod Mamma FC 11/4 Don't need to say much here. Tipped her up the last 3 times and she is trying to complete a 5 timer tomorrow. She won with a bit in hand last time out and if I get the projected FC odds tomorrow I will be delighted. Lee Topliss takes off 3 and has won on her before so I will once again be very surprised if she is beaten. 4.20 Ascot Mitie Mouse FC 14/1 I like the look of this Mike Murphy trained Mitie Mouse quite a bit . This 2 year old was a winner on debut on the AW at Kempton over 5f in June, where he turned over the odds on shot Excavator by a neck. This was a very encouraging debut effort, and one which he should definitely improve for. The form of that race has worked out quite nicely as well. The 2nd Excavator has come out and disappointed as an odds on shot once again and finished 2nd, while Lupo D’oro, who finished 3rd 1.5L behind Mitie Mouse, has subsequen The 5th in Mitie Mouse’s debut run Netley Marsh has come out and won since also. On his 2nd career start Mitie Mouse was stepped up to Listed Class in the shape of the Windsor Stakes at Royal Ascot. Although he probably never had a chance to begin with, Mitie Mouse had the worst draw in the race in stall 1 and as a result he wasted too much energy trying to track across to the better ground on the opposite side of the track. That said, he still ran a relatively decent race at Listed Class for 3f before dropping away tamely to finish last (although he was not given a hard time of it). Mitie Mouse returned to form when getting collared on the line at Thirsk to lose by a neck to Guru Girl, who reopposes tomorrow off at a 3lb worse off mark. Although Mitie Mouse underperformed badly LTO as he shaped as if something was definitely amiss (Callan kept looking down from a long way out) and Guru Girl has posted an excellent 2nd since, Mitie Mouse is forecast to be 3 times the price and I definitely am going to side with Murphy's unexposed 2 year old who I believe has a lot more to offer. Also very much looking forward to seeing previous selctions Kunooz and Saigon running again but I'll leave them be for tomorrow
Ascot 3,15 There shouldn’t be much between Eton Rifles and Smarty Socks (on a line through Webbow), and the weights just favour the latter. Gramercy is not without a chance, based on his comeback effort. The form pick, however, should be Ed Dunlop’s Swift Gift. He has a nine pound pull with Smarty Socks for a head defeat last back end, and ran an encouraging reappearance at Ascot last month. Swift Gift- Good Each way recommended. Best Price 11/1 (Various). 5.20 Ascot A very difficult 5 furlong handicap. If Button Moon could repeat her last run- when 4th behind Desert Law in a Class 2 at Bath, she could win this Class 3. However, she is very unreliable. Button Moon- Small Each Way Bet recommended at 20/1 (V. Chandler) Haydock 3.35 I don’t deny Dream Ahead’s two year old form gives him a first rate chance, but his July Cup win was a poor quality field, and I feel he’s there to be shot at. I previously recommended Bewitched at 20/1 and I still feel the current 12/1 is decent value. Kempton 4.25 Saigon and Shumoos will be all the rage here- and I prefer the former. However, Bayleyf has shown terrific improvement recently. After a decent run behind Frederick Engels over 5f at Ascot, he stepped up to 6 furlongs- winning a Class 5 at Epsom and then a Class 2 at Goodwood. On both occasions, he made the running and galloped on resolutely. He’ll need to step up again here, but he may have more improvement in him than the two favourites, notwithstanding there are two ‘maiden winners’ in Gabrial The King and Heeraat to contend with. Bayleyf- Good Each way Bet recommended at 10/1 (Paddy Power) Best of luck to everyone. Late Tip. 6.10 Leopardstown Music In The Rain. Gets in off a very good mark for his first run of the season. Ran unplaced in Group 2 behind Casamento- after winning well at Naas. Kevin manning can't do the weight, so Cleary takes the ride. Currently 15.5/1 on Betfair.
Ascot 2:05 -Starboard This nicely bred colt from John Gosden's yard has been working very well at home working all over Johnny Castle (rated 92), Gosden can ready a newcomer and this Royal Lodge entry can win here on the way to much better things a decent bet for me @ 11/4, Good luck on your bets!
For all the Group races on the flat today I am fascinated by the opening Novice Hurdle at Stratford where the 130 rated Tatispout takes on 2 potentially very exciting ex-flat horses in Yahrab and World Heritage. Tatispout must have been held in high regard from day one by Charlie Longsdon as he was really thrown in at the deep end on debut, finishing tailed off behind Sam Winner in the Triumph Hurdle trial at Cheltenham last November. He then gradually improved through a few juvenile and novice hurdle races and scored his first win in April at the 7th time of asking, winning hard-held at Stratford in a pretty ordinary looking novices handicap hurdle. He easily followed up 12 days later without a penalty off 110 but was subsequently raised 22lbs for the Swinton and was well beaten off his rather fanciful mark of 132. He sets the standard today but could be vulnerable to the 2 highly-rated ex-flat horses World Heritage and Yahrab. World Heritage started life with Pascal Bary in France and his best performance there was a 2nd place in a G2 behind Debussy. Since moving to Robert Eddery he has not exactly set the world alight and he has dropped down the flat ratings from 108 to 94 and was last seen a well beaten 10th in a class 3 at Newmarket. Clearly a talented animal and maybe the challenge of jumping hurdles will re-energise him. That is exactly what happened to Yahrab, a striking grey, on his 1 and only start over obstacles. Yahrab started life on the flat with Clive Brittain where he achieved a rating of 107 behind Campanologist in the Feilden Stakes before running up a hat-trick culminating in a listed race win. He then had a pretty abortive spell with Godolphin before returning to Clive Brittain but failed to win any further races on the flat. He subsequently tumbled down the ratings and his last run on the flat, at Beverley, was off a paltry 72 (beaten 30 lengths by Striker Torres, how ironic as that footballer seems to have had a similar fall from grace). The decision was taken to send Yahrab hurdling and he made his debut 2 weeks ago at Market Rasen in a Class 4 Novices Hurdle. His opponents that day included previous winner Taaresh and even though they looked a pretty average bunch on paper the manner of Yahreb's victory was very, very impressive. He travelled supremely well throughout, jumped his hurdles with uncanny fluency for a debuant and Barry Keniry had a real armchair ride as Yahrab quickened away from the last to score by 17 lengths. Just once down the back straight he needed a reminder from Keniry to wake him up but he fairly flew home afterwards. I was very impressed by his hurdling - quick and nimble - and he looks to have a future over timber provided he can retain that fluency over the obstacles. Early prices have World Heritage and Tatispout vying for favouritism at around the 9/4 mark but Yahrab is a very tasty looking 5/1 and therefore gets the vote as his price offers much better value. World Heritage could be a good un but has jet to jump an obstacle in public and I prefer Yahrab at double the odds. 2.20 Stratford Yahrab (NAP) Best of luck to everyone today
The Sprint Cup looks very tricky so I'll keep my darts away from it. One race that interests me today though is the 4.40 Haydock. 4.40 Haydock Martin Chuzzlewit 9/2 NAP The selection may want further than the 1 mile trip today and the more rain the better for him IMO. I still expect him to be up to taking this, though he may look outpaced at some point, he will be coming home best of all and I expect him to score decisively in this classy contest.
Morning men starboard 10 my turn on the syndicate bet today (which at present im lying 4th) (of 4 !!!!!) RR World Heritage 14:20 Stratford, think you talked your self out of it Oddy my man The Romford Pele 17:30 Sratford McCoy Double up Starboard Ascot 14:05 Thanks Cats so thats my Round Robin sorted, i smell victory already EW Lucky 15 (MUGS bet i know but if the hat fits !) Merchant of Dubai Dancing Freddy Smarty Socks Amir Pasha Good Luck and Stay Frosty
Dan I am going with Yahrab against World Heritage mate - take a look at his debut victory, thought he looked very very impressive. Also has a similar flat profile and rating to WH, but is double the odds.
i hear you oddy but im reliablyinformed McCoy wins, see your point about double the odds and wish you luck but i will be collecting my friend !!!!
Oddy, I agree with Heisenburg that you've 'talked yourself out of World Heritage.' He'll probably hose in! I can't particularly fancy Yahrab- he's been going backwards on the flat, and Spa Dancer looks much more attractive; he's got better recent flat form and would be my Each way selection to give W. Heritage most to do.
2.15 Modun - Really like this horse in this race, something about the Harris Tweed form doesn't work for me. Modun to me is a good horse who is potentially still an improver. NAP Then I have backed Hoof It and Dream Ahead in the big sprint, 11/2 the pair seems fair enough. I have also done the doubles with Modun. Football - Huddersfield/Oxford Double Chesterfield win single
Off to Stratford shortly. Had a quick look at the other meets and doing a small stakes lucky 15: Ascot 3.45 Parlour Games 9/1 NAP (backed it the last twice, so hoping for the hat trick) Haydock 3.35 Dream Ahead 11/2 (forgiving the last run in France) Haydock 5.10 Watered Silk 6/1 (Tregoning to continue his good form) Stratford 5.00 Bathwick Quest (Pipe/Scudamore only runner) Be lucky all.
2.40 Ascot – KUNOOZ - 7-2 (BOG) An interesting conditions stakes race for fillies here and a chance is taking on KUNOOZ to remain unbeaten. Mohammed Al Zarooni’s filly looked a smart prospect when winning what looked an above average maiden at Newmarket on debut; she appeared to be the second string that day with Frankie Dettori opting to ride the more fancied Parley. Kunooz travelled strongly up with the pace at Newmarket and although she did show a willing attitude to win her race she did show obvious signs of inexperience. She should know more again today and although it is not clear to see which is the Godolphin first string Mickael Barzalona takes the ride and this is seen as a positive. 2.00 Haydock – RAINFALL 4-1 (BOG) A good race to kick off the Haydock card with a very tight market but I am very confident that RAINFALL can land this listed prize. She is a horse with a lot of class and is versatile in regards to distance and ground. It is obvious for all to see looking back through some of her old form that she sets the standard here. Victory over Red Jazz in a Group 3 before finishing 3rd to Music Show and Spacious in Group 1 Company soon got people talking about this filly and with more solid efforts in Group company following this seen Rainfall move from Mark Johnston and join the Godolphin operation. She is now trained by Saeed Bin Suroor and around this time last year she made the perfect start for her new yard when winning a listed heat at Ascot with ease. She followed that effort up with a smashing 3rd place finish in the Group 1 Sun Chariot behind the high class Saphresa. After that career best performance Rainfall set up an interesting 4yo campaign but she has only made it to the track once this season when finishing last of 6 (sent off 6/5 fav) in a listed race at Goodwood following a 240 day absence. However this run is easily excused as her trainer had expressed his concerns following a setback and despite being allowed to take her chance this just could not be her run at all. The fact she has been given another 96 day break would suggest she has been freshened up and is now ready to go again. If returning to her Group 1 placed form she will walk this race. A first time tongue tie should help and she can make the most of the sex allowance to strike here. 2.15 Kempton – MODUN (5/2 BOG) A nice card at Kempton today and there are a few good betting chances in my opinion, none better than MODUN who I am confident can take the step up to Group Company in his stride. Sir Michael Stoute’s 4yo has always had something about him and for me this is the sort of the race he will perform well in. He has been very progressive this season starting from a mark of 84 working himself up to a rating of 105. He did everything right at Newbury on his reappearance and this marked him as a top prospect for this season, he was well below par at Ascot after but soon proved that run to be all wrong when finishing strongly behind subsequent Group winner Green Destiny at York, another solid effort came at Goodwood when he was powering home to lose out by only a neck suggesting he was ready for a step back up in distance. It looked like the Ebor had been perfectly set up for him by connections and therefore I placed a decent bet on him for the contest, I was counting my winnings 2 ½ furlongs from home but it seems he didn’t stay the 1m6f trip after not staying on like he had been over the shorter distances. 1m4f seems like it will be his optimum trip and I am confident he will stay on late and land this prize this afternoon 2.30 Haydock – BLISSFULL MOMENT E.W 11/1 (BOG) Again it is not easy to select the winner in races like this but BLISSFULL MOMENT has the profile of a progressive horse if we ignore his 9th place effort in the Ebor. This wasn’t a bad effort considering the pace of the race may not have suited him but if we go back to his previous form it is easy to make a solid case for him running a big race this afternoon. He started this campaign with a slightly unfortunate defeat when runner up at Ascot off a mark of 91. He did everything right that day and looked to have won his race only to be mugged close home. He then stepped up on that effort when again filling the runner up spot over the same Course and Distance behind the now 110 rated Fox Hunt. He had his previous conqueror Rock a Doodle Doo back in 4th. It is clear to see he was progressing nicely before his ebor run and for me a mark of 98 doesn’t look beyond him. I will be interested in the tactics today now Richard Hughes takes the ride. For most of his races this horse has been placed up with the leaders but over this trip I would be more than happy to see him held up under Hughes and coming with a late challenge, either way I am hopeful of a big run for my money. 3.35 Haydock – DREAM AHEAD 11/2 (BOG) DELEGATOR 11/1 BOG Obviously a cracking race to watch and from a punting point of view I am more than happy to back both Dream Ahead and Delegator for the win at their current prices. The 11/2 offers some smashing value for Dream Ahead, there is little point going all the way back through his form as we all know he is a high quality horse and his performance in both the Middle Park as a juvenile and the July Cup prove what a talent he really is. He has had a few disappointing efforts in the past no more so than the flop last time out in France, he had looked set to dominate the sprinting division when winning the July Cup though and he is well worth another chance. Delegator is also a class act, sent off favourite to win a guineas in his 3yo campaign only to be denied by a world beater (Sea The Stars). Dropped to sprinting this season he looked to still have plenty of his ability when winning at York first time out, there was nothing wrong with his 5th in the July cup behind Dream Ahead when he didn’t have a great draw or the best of luck in running. He was well below par at Goodwood last time out but his action was all wrong at the end of the race suggesting he had a valid excuse (possibly the soft ground). I am hopeful he will run a good race today on ground that should suit. 3.45 Ascot – ARCH FIRE E.W 20/1 (BOG – NAP) A competitive handicap with several unexposed and in form horses taking their chances so it will not be easy to select the winner. The one that stands out most to me is ARCH FIRE. He is a horse I have followed since his debut in the Wood Ditton in which he finished 9th of 13 runners. He was clueless that day but the fact he was sent off 2nd favourite was interesting. He then went on to prove that he is a horse with plenty of ability when landing a big field maiden at Sandown getting the better of the now 86 rated Polperro by 2 ½ lengths. His following effort came in a handicap at this track and despite not winning he did again show plenty, finishing fast to be a never nearer 3rd. He did show signs of a bad temperament that day when looking reluctant early on at the back of the field. His best effort so far came at Glorious Goodwood when again rattling home from the back, he finished 2nd this time going down by head to the progressive Whiplash Willie (97). A repeat of that effort would have seen him go close at Sandown on his most recent start but the dodgey temperament was evident for all to see again and he only managed to finish 7th of 11. So going back through this horses form it is clear to see he has ability but backing him could always be a risk because he simply doesn’t seem to always put in the effort. Today I am willing to give him another chance on the basis that he is certainly overpriced IF putting his best foot forward. I definitely fancy him to run in to at least a place under Jimmy Fortune this afternoon but it should be clear to tell from an early stage in the race whether or not Arch Fire is interested. 4.25 Kempton – PEARL CHARM 14-1 (BOG) I am very disappointed that only 7 line up here as when I seen 9 in this race I thought I had a cracking E.W bet in PEARL CHARM, I am not playing for a place now so I will just reduce the stake and go for the straight win bet. Pearl Charm is a Colt I was really taken by when she won on debut at Doncaster and then connections started making such positive vibes about her claiming he could be a little superstar. On his 2nd and most recent start she was sent off favourite for a listed heat with Richard Hughes choosing to ride him rather than the 100+ rated Trumpet Major. Pear Charm only managed to beat two home that day but didn’t seem to be enjoying the soft ground, Trumpet Major finished 2nd that day. I really do think Pearl Charm is a cracking bet this afternoon and he should handle this surface as Richard Hannon reported that he had worked him on a similar surface at home and he went well. At 14-1 I think he offers cracking value here.
