Article: National Hunt Preview - Forthcoming 2011-12 season | Horse Racing

By the end of next month, National Hunt enthusiasts will start to look forward to the 2011-12 Jumps Season and, as a diversion from the Flat, I thought I’d do a preview for National Hunt fans:

With the demise and apparent decline of star chasers, Denman, Imperial Commander, and Kauto Star, it will be interesting to see if any horse can mount a serious challenge to the “new kid on the block,” Long Run.
In Novice Chasers, we can expect exciting times- with horses such as Sprinter Sacre, Spirit Son, Al Ferof, and Peddler’s Cross- all due to go chasing.
On the hurdling front, Willie Mullins’ Hurricane Fly will be a warm order to repeat last season’s Champion Hurdle victory and, looking at the horses he is likely to encounter, the opposition looks somewhat sparse.
In staying hurdles, Big Bucks seems to go from strength to strength, and it would take a brave man- or a fool- to oppose him.
Below I attach my own preview of the forthcoming season, and I suggest a “Ten To Follow Competition” which I shall post soon as a separate ‘Article.’
Please freely give your views and comments on mine below, and add /review any horses you particularly wish to highlight.

Gold Cup .Despite losing in the Paddy Power, Long Run showed his class and speed when running away with the King George at Kempton. He then galloped away from Denman in the Gold Cup, thereby allaying fears that he would not truly stay that gruelling test at Prestbury Park.
One possible question remaining is “How much had Denman and Kauto Star declined- and did this in effect flatter Long Run?”
The answer may well be that this Cadoudal-sired six year old still has a long way to go and, if he duplicates his paternal brother, Big Bucks, then the best is yet to come.
Likely contenders will be Time For Rupert who was apparently ‘all wrong’ in the RSA Chase; Weapon’s Amnesty who beat Long Run in the 2010 RSA; last season’s top Irish novices, Boston’s Angel and Quito De La Roque; and even possibly the Arkle winner, Captain Chris- if he is campaigned at the longer trip.
One thing’s for sure. All those contenders will relish Cheltenham, and Long Run may have to face a more potent “younger brigade” than he did last March.

Champion Hurdle.
Last March, Hurricane Fly finally silenced his critics who felt he was beating the same opposition in every race- and those who felt he wouldn’t act round Cheltenham.
In fairness, Peddler’s Cross was the only horse to make a race of it in the Champion Hurdle, but Hurricane Fly was far more impressive at Punchestown and may always be better on a flatter track- where he can use his tremendous turn of foot.
Also, he’s only tasted defeat once since he came over from France, and his consistency , though not uncommon many years ago, is quite rare among modern hurdlers.
It’s hard to seriously fancy anything to beat him this year.

Of last year’s established hurdlers, only Oscar Whisky would seem to present a threat, should he progress further. However, he stays well and may have the dubious privilege of challenging Big Bucks for the 3 mile crown.
From the novice ranks, Zarkandar and Grandouet would seem the obvious choices, but second season hurdlers have a poor record at the top level.
From the older novices, I particularly like Oscar’s Well, but he may prove difficult to place, and I don’t know if connections intend to send him chasing.

Champion Two Mile Chase
The two mile crown seems far more open than the other two championship races.
Sizing Europe has won both his previous Festival races and turned in a really good performance to win last season.
Big Zeb is ultra consistent and avenged his Cheltenham defeat by beating Sizing Europe at Punchestown but, likewise Captain Cee Bee, he’ll be eleven next March.
From the first season chasers, Finian’s Rainbow and Ghizao will be touted, but I prefer Captain Chris as the better prospect. Once he got the hang of it, he just carried on improving last season.
Of the other contenders, Golden Silver doesn’t seem to like Cheltenham, and Noble Prince, Realt Dubh, Wishful Thinking, and Rubi Light may all target The Ryanair Chase.

Horses To Watch.

Rubilight.He went from a 130 rating to 157 within four months, and ran a great race in The Ryanair. After a terrible blunder three out, he fought his way back and may have been unlucky. I think there’s much more to come from this six year old.

Captain Chris.
Another big improver. He just got better and better last season, and will surely challenge for top honours- wherever he goes.

Quito De La Roque.
Yet another improver and from the ‘Big Bucks/Long Run Family’ ( By Cadoudal’s son, Saint Des Saints).
He only tasted one narrow defeat from his six chases last season, and will be a big threat in staying chases, especially on soft ground.

Which horses are other members looking forward to seeing, and which do they fancy for the Championship races at Cheltenham next March?

 

I think Michael O'Leary might have a very good season with Quito De La Roque and Weapons Amnesty (assuming he can overcome the lay off). Bostons Angel is another one to consider for the Gold Cup.

I can't see past Hurricane Fly for the Champion Hurdle.

Given the decent record of Arkle winners in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, Captain Chris could be plenty of value at 12/1.

The biggest certainty of the season is Long Run to win his second King George. I still think he's a superior horse around Kempton than he is at Cheltenham.

 

Nice write up Tam. Even though I ended up backing Long Run quite heavily in last years Gold Cup I'd take the form of that race with a massive pinch of salt. He is surely still a better horse round Kempton and he beat declining horses in the Gold Cup. I just can't see him winning the GC next year, as has already been pointed out there are a lot of very tasty second season chasers stepping up next year to take him on! Quito de la Roque and Weapons Amensty are 2 very, very strong Irish challengers. You have been warned

Champion Chase divison doesn't look as strong as a few seasons ago with no stand out like Moscow Flyer in it and doubts over last year's Arkle horses for different reasons. Captain Chris looks like he wants a trip to me and isn't Finians Rainbow better on a flat track? Very open look to it.

The same thing certainly can't be said for the Champion Hurdle or World Hurdle where it'd be a brave (or foolish!) man predicting something can knock Hurricane Fly or Big Bucks off their respective perches!

 

Beeforsalmon, I agree that Captain Chris could do better over further, and it will be interesting to see if that's the plan. However, he'll always do well over a a strongly run two miles.

 

Tam I think their touting the King George as a potential stepping stone for Captain Chris, the way he runs you would suspect that he should stay that far? Though they have an embarrassment of riches, as of course, Wishfull Thinking who has been further is also owned by the same owners... So they could keep CC at 2miles, and let WT go the further trips. Two nice horses and nice dilemmas to have!

 

Beef, I think Wishful Thinking is owned by a guy called Cyclonic- read his Article "Thunderbolt to England," and you'll see what I mean!

 

Tam

 

Nice article Tam. Must make sure this doesn't disappear.

 

Tam: Nice write up mate, do enjoy reading other people's thoughts on the Festival.

Gold Cup: Long Run will indeed face younger and stronger opposition next year BUT will also be that much older himself and without doubt stronger! Personally i think he will take all the beating.

QMCC: Sizing Europe demolished them last year and is capable of doing it again around his favorite track! Sadly the 14s will not be on offer again

Arkle: Will Peddlers Cross go down this route or move up in distance? Whatever he does Al Ferof could be dominant in this sphere, he looks a superb horse made for chasing. I certainly hope he does well as John Hales has had some bad moments and puts a lot into racing

Stayers: Big Brother is a revelation BUT the age trend is well and truly in town now. One that i will be looking out for is Rigour Back Bob, ran a cracker in last years race.

Ryanair: Always a very competitive event and with Master Minded moving up in distance this race will take the winning.

Novice: Royal Guardsman ran a very taking race when winning his Bumper at Fontwell over 2m 2f. From the Colin Tizzard yard this will take some beating as he looks a monster, not sure on the rules but may be eligible for next years Bumper!

 

GDC, who the hell gave you 14/1 against Sizing Europe? A very benevolent bookie!
Re. Peddler's Cross, he's going "The Arkle route, " according to reports today. The interesting one there could be Thousand Stars at 17/1 with Betfair- he's shown tremendous improvement since winning 2010 County Hurdle, and is a French Champion Hurdle winner after all.
Royal Guardsman is certainly one to keep an eye on, although the Irish target the Bumper too.

 

Tam - 14s was available on Sizing a couple of weeks before the festival. Might have been there a bit closer to the day as well.

I like First lieutenant and Noble prince - both looked very good at the festival and it will be interesting to see how they fare out of the novice ranks. Zarkander was an impressive Triumph hurdle winner and I think he'll develop intoa decent huirdler - though everyone is going to find it really hard against Hurricane fly who looks a true superstar.

I was surprised to hear Nicky Henderson say he was going to send Bons worth chasing after his performance in the Albert Bartlett. I think he'd be a very good staying hurdler and might be one to guve Big bucks a decent race.

 

Champion and World Hurdles

Difficult to see past Hurricane Fly and Big Buck's. Both were imperious last season and Big Buck's, in particular seems to have no obvious challengers to his crown. Hurricane Fly seems to has little to fear from the established brigade. Oscar Whiskey is perhaps the pick of the bunch but he has a lot to find on the form and has always seemed more of a 2m4f horse.

Gold Cup

I think the Gold Cup is Long Run's for the taking. The race last year was terrific and a true advert for our great sport. I don't think he has a great deal to fear from last season's novices. The RSA was a blanket finish and i didn't think the race was the strongest before that either. If anything the novice challenge may come from the shorter races. Captain Chris and Wishfull Thinking from the Hobbs stable are two obvious candidates, plus Jewson winner Nobel Prince must be respected. It will be very interesting to see where Hobbs goes with his two. If the King George was run in the spring i'd be all over Captain Chris for it. I think the track and the trip will be ideal for him, but his preference for true spring ground is well known. He improved and improved last season and if he continues on that trend then he will be a threat to all wherever he goes.

My feeling is that Long Run will be more vunerable in the King George than the Gold Cup. He looked an out and out stayer in the Gold Cup and i'm not convinced by the King George form. I don't think Riverside Theatre stays and i'm convinced that Kauto Star was well below par, even accounting for his inevitable decline. I think his Gold Cup run showed that. If Long Run meets a horse with a little more toe such as Captain Chris or Master Minded (if he stays) then i think he could be vulnerable round the sharp 3m at Kempton.

Champion Chase

I would be surprised if the Arkle trend continues this season because i fully expect Captain Chris to excel over further. I don't expect him to even run in the race. I think he got away with 2m last season, and will want further this time. Of the novices Finian's Rainbow possibly looks the best. He travelled strongly in the Arkle before finding Captain Chris too strong up the hill. With another year on his back he might be one to lay down the challenge to Sizing Europe. I've never been a fan of Big Zeb so don't see him regaining his crown. Certainly an open affair at this stage.

Arkle

This looks top quality on paper at this stage. But for me Peddler's Cross' hurdles form is leagues above anything else. I see no reason why he shouldn't be at least as good over fences so for me he is the one to be with at this stage. Al Ferof won the Supreme like a stayer, and Nicholls has laready suggested that he might need further. Thousand Stars is continually underrated and may be a dark horse. This is all about Peddler's for me at this stage. I've backed him at the lasty two festivals and fully intend to complete the hatrick this season.

 

Zenyatta, a lot of good logic from your comments
The only thing I should add is that "fences aren't hurdles" and, as we know, one bad mistake can be far worse over the larger obstacles.
It will be intriguing to see which top novice hurdlers take to fences- or which moderate hurdlers excel themselves.
Ref. your Arkle comments, there can't now be much between Peddler's and Thousand Stars on hurdles ratings, and yet very few would give the latter much chance if they met tomorrow over fences.
However, Thousand Stars is probably the most improved horse in training IMO, and may be the one to go to the top over fences. I for one will have an ante-post on him before his first race.

 

I've been backing Peddlers cross for the arkle and first lieutenant for the rsa since last Cheltenham. I've dubbed it my 'doing a famous'. I've got quite a lot of the 12's about both and some 10's recently.

I'll be following the Tim Vaughan trained, JP Mcmanus owned Aland Islands. A sensational bumper winner last season. No idea about the target though.

 

Absolutely agree. There is always an element of doubt. You don't know until they try.

I think i would still have Peddler's in front. On official ratings they are 170 and 164 which i think is about right. However, for whatever reason, Thousand Stars always seems to be underrated. He's a reliable sort and think he could well represent 'value' at some stage next year. At the end of the day 6lbs is very little when there are however many fences between you and the finish line. It is perfectly reasonable to think that he might turn the form around, but for me (at this stage at least) my preference would be for Peddlers. I have been looking forward to him going chasing for 2 years now so hope he fulfills my expectations.

 

is Thousand Stars definitely going chasing? If he does I dont see him as a 2 mile chaser. the 2 & 1/2 miler would suit more I think.

 

fantastic prices oddy. I've been looking at quevega and hurricane fly double this week. at 6/4 & 13/8 you get £600 ish from a £100 stake. I dont know of many savings accounts paying those kinds of rates.

 

The treble . . .