4.10 Haydock Amitola 22/1 Really like the look of David Barron's filly here in what looks a competitive handicap over 7f, and shes a horse Iâve been waiting a while to race again. This lightly raced 4 year old comes here after two rather disappointing reappearance runs at Haydock and Pontefract in May and June after an 8 month absence. Amitola has won twice so far in her career, making an impressive winning debut by 6L to Kellys Eye who subsequently pieced together a hat trick last year. Amitola's 2nd victory came at Newmarket last September when winning by a neck to Midnight Martini and the form of both those races looks solid and consistent. Just over 2 weeks after her last win, Amitola put up a very credible 0.88L 3rd behind Dever Dream in a Listed contest at Newmarket. Amitola raced isolated for the first 3f but converged with the main bunch to get pipped in the final 100 yards. The form of that race looks very good, with the winner rated a 105 animal and Amitola was only receiving 3lb in weight for allowances. Furthermore, the vast majority of horses in behind that day have held form very well, including Beyond Desire who has come 2nd in a Group 3 race and 4th in a Group 2 and is now rated 101 (5L behind Amitola). It was an excellent effort by Amitola in a Listed race and if she runs to that form tomorrow she surely will take a lot of beating with a few horses in behind that competing in Class 1 and Class 2 events. After her 8 month break Amitola was quite disappointing as she finished out the back in a Fillies Listed event. She was not supported in the market and although she won on debut and as a result could well have been race ready I am willing to give her the benefit of the doubt. Amitolaâs 2nd run this year came at Pontefract back in June and she once again put in a disappointing effort. She was slow from the stalls which is bad for this filly who likes to front run and she could never really get a position that was too prominent. She was bumped and found racing room hard to find and after this Jamie Spencer seemed to save her for another day. It is also possible she didnât like the undulating track at Pontefract also. However, it is very significant to note that the 1st and 2nd that day had finished behind Amitola during her win in September at Newmarket. She finished 3.25L ahead of Sioux Rising on only a 1lb worse mark and 4.13L ahead of Desert Poppy from a 3lb worse mark. Although disappointing, it is clear she is better than her showing and the form of her win has further been strengthened as Sioux Rising has subsequently run an excellent 2nd at York from a 10lb higher mark than when she was beaten by Amitola. Desert Poppy has also franked the form by winning off a 1lb smaller mark as well as posting a decent 3rd off a 5lb higher mark. Although this is competitive, I really fancy the chances of this filly tomorrow. With only 9 runs so far to date, Amitola is certainly open to improvement and remains unexposed. Although you have to overlook her two runs this year as a 4 year old, I think her chances far surpass her current odds. She performs tomorrow in a Class 3 race and has already won a Class 2 race off a mark of 85, only 2lb lower than her racing weight tomorrow. She steps up to 7f for the first time in her career tomorrow and although she hasnât shaped as if the step up will suit, David Barron is a very shrewd trainer and I fully trust he wouldnât race her over this trip unless he thought she would stay it. Lee Newman takes the first ride on Amitola tomorrow, and he is Barronâs most used jockey this year and boasts an impressive 22% strike rate for the yard. Barronâs yard is in good from and he had a 20% strike rate for August. Sheâs had a couple of months break since her last effort which may indicate that something may not have been right but even still Barron should hopefully have her in top condition tomorrow. She holds an entry in the Ayr Gold Cup in a few weeks time so she clearly is still well thought of at home and if staying the extra furlong and back to top form I really think Amitola will take all the beating at what is in my opinion a massively overpriced 22/1.
6.20 Kempton Scary Movie 20/1 Fingers crossed this is another Emmet Michael Butterly special at a massive price. The Donegal trainer brings over Scary Movie to Kempton in what represents his only horse out tomorrow. Butterly has become a bit of a specialist in this sphere, with him sending over 9 horses to the AW tracks in England with an extremely impressive 6 wins, a 2nd and a 3rd. Thats an incredibly impressive 67% win rate and 89% place rate for his horses. Scary Movie made his debut for his current yard at Galway and was disappointing but that doesn't concern me considering the trainers amazing record. He races off a mark of 76 tomorrow and having won off 73 and finished a neck 3rd off 75 the improvement Butterly seems to get make me believe he certainly has a great chance of making the frame. It represents jockey Alan Creighton's only ride tomorrow and I can see this starting single figures tomorrow.
ROTO, couple of excellent write-ups as usual, you seem to have been in some nice form when I drop in and check the results, hope it continues! I'll drop in to refugees at some point and we'll have a wee catch-up, hope things are well! I'll continue with day 3 of my slightly freshened up approach to a daily thread. Today my 'Value' bet of the day came in at 8/1 in the shape of Sajwah and we had another successful lay bet when Lordoftheshadows was defeated. Slightly disappointing Haydock card I have to say, but what it lacks in quality it might hold some interesting opportunities: BEST CHANCE OF THE DAY: BAPTIST 10/1 5.10 Haydock LONGSHOT OF THE DAY- SIR GEOFFREY 14/1 2.10 Haydock VALUE BET OF THE DAY- OLDJOESAID 6/1 1.40 Haydock LAY OF THE DAY- LUCKY MEADOWS 15/8 4.30 Chepstow BAPTIST Baptist has shown signs of the ability on his last two starts that enabled him to see off Chain Lightning (now rated 97) on debut, becoming slightly outpaced before running on pretty strongly to make the frame. To me he is a horse absolutely CRYING OUT for 10f and finally gets that opportunity today. There is already early money for him, cut from 12s to 10s, and the Balding yard remain in good order.The weight for age allowance comes in handy and off 9 stone 2 I would be really disappointed if it could not make its presence felt. People may look at a 10/1 shot as 'best chance of the day' and think it's a bit of a flimsy, risky selection. To some extent it is, but it is a horse unexposed, shaped as if coming to form, and crying out for this trip. No other horse in the race can boast the same and for that reason I really fancy this horse to finally deliver on the promise of its 2 Y 0 form. SIR GEOFFREY This has to go down as a longshot because we just don't know what sort of mood he's going to be in. Having said that, this is Dandy Nicholls we are talking about and we have got a nice bit of herlp from the handicapper. This is a horse that has been competitive off marks of 85, including a 3rd at Ripon, though mainly on the All Weather. Off a mark of 79 today, with a good draw, you would have to give this a chance of making all and giving itself a very good chance of at least making the frame. It returns after a 119 day absence but did run reasonably well after a similar break in the past when bagging 3rd at Kempton. Has won off a mark of 80 so you would have to say that given the draw, prominent racing style, and the fact it is now 1lb less than its last winning mark, we might see a bold showing. OLDJOESAID A smart sprinter on his day, he has been out of sorts for the early part of the season before getting much closer to the action on his last two starts. There is an absolute tonne of pace in this race which will suit (at least 3 front runners), as I think this one will just track the leaders and have more in the tank at the finish. It has to be said, he seemed unlucky last time out when denied a clear run and compensation may await today. Without question good enough to win at this level and with no real unexposed types in the race, must go close and therefore 6/1 looks very fair indeed. LUCKY MEADOWS This is definitely a laying opportunity that comes with a risk, but no more so than would be the case if you were actually backing the horse. The risk of laying is that it is a horse that possesses some ability- chased home the smart HAVANT in a nice maiden on debut, but this season was poor at Lingfield and was flashing tail throughout when holding on last time to get off the mark. Clearly, there are temperament issues which prevent the full ability shining through. To boost our laying prospects, you have to say that William Haggas has a useful sort in opposition in the shape of SWIFT BREEZE, who shaped as if the run would bring it on loads when staying on a little bit too late. With the cobwebs now blown away, I fancy this one to outbattle Lucky Meadows and land a hat-trick of successful lay bets since starting on Wednesday. Each-Way Thieves One or two others caught my eye this evening and this time look attractive as an each-way double. ACCESSION 7/1 2.40 Haydock + MAKYAAL 10/1 3.00 Chepstow (e/w double) + KASHABELLE (14/1) 4.40 Haydock (for any brave soul fancying the e/w treble) Accession has the best pedigree of all for sprinting and with an entry still held in the Mill Reef, you would suspect that this one has been showing a fair bit at home. Those with experience have hardly set the world alight and this looks a good opportunity. Makyaal is a John Dunlop handicapper racing off a mark of 50. I had to do a double-take because its pedigree and even its maiden form, whilst bare results were poor, point to the fact that this should be at least 10-15lb in hand if putting it all in. Potentially thrown in and if settling properly I think will take some beating. Dropping it back to 1m will certainly suit and young T O'Shea has caught my eye with one or two pleasing, patient rides of late. Kashabelle is your optional extra, was absolutely flying home late last time and with a big field and a decent clip can make the frame again if keeping clear of trouble in running. Perhaps an interesting e/w single play. Have a good day folks, take care and enjoy the weekend. -Top
3.50 Brighton Strident Force (NAP) Given a very tender introduction by Ryan Moore on softish ground over 7F at Ascot in a class 3 maiden. Looking back at that ride it really was more like "public schooling" and I expect Sir Michael Stoute's colt to be much nearer the business end today, especially with Fallon in the saddle. Storming Bernard is the obvious danger and warrants respect but I think he may be vulnerable (again) to a decent sort and Strident Force is the one I fancy today. Best of luck everyone
Morning all hope you dont mind me putting this up........ Many thanks for the email Time to move on Iâm afraid but Iâll be in situ until the end of November. All the best Kevin Ps I almost forgot to mentionâ¦I am riding in the Leger Legends race at Doncaster next Wednesday 7th. Itâs a charity race where all the proceeds go to the IJF and the Northern Racing College. I would be grateful if you could rally round your colleagues, those that are racing fans of course, to see if you can get them to donate to a very worthy cause. The Justgiving link below has an excellent picture of yours truly going out to ride at Wolverhampton many moons agoâ¦1976. All the best Kevin http://www.justgiving.com/Kevin-Darley1 email from Kevin Darley, (not name droping. i know him through the work i do for the PJA) ANY DONATIONS WELCOME IF YOU DO DONATE put Not 606 on there stay frosty
Nice one Dan - many fond memories of Kevin Darley riding, I will be donating. Also many congrats once again on BPG yesterday and thanks for putting it up
Morning, all. Hope everyone well. Nothing for me today and so the 'no bet' banner is fluttering in the breeze once again. Think it's a pretty drab day actually especially when compared to yesterday's nice cards and those sparkling fixtures of tomorrow. In fact if you hold those very cards up to the light then they sparkle. If you do decide to wager though, the very best of luck.
Danbo: As i said last night mate, great price for BPG and young Declan gave him a superb ride shame you deserted Miss Ferney though you scoundrel
What a joy reading all the comments on yesterdays thread about Oldest and Eez. Ray was without doubt a character! So funny but could 'go' off on one at the flick of a switch Proper gentleman who was rightly proud to be British and supported our Armed Forces to the end. Like Linden and Sizing and Nass I often find myself being reminded of the great man when different things happen. WHIMS WHIMS WHIMS and make me smile
Good morning gents, hope we are all well... So the start of the weekend is here and lets hope for a good one... Ive got Haydock to look forward to tomorrow, which i hope will be a good one. So i will be interested to see how it goes there today... Just checking the cards now and will try to pick something out to avoid...!!!
Nass: Was given a great front running ride by Declan Cannon, nicked the race mate. I very nearly backed it once it went to 5/2! The previous race was won very very easily by Miss Ferney
Two today 4:20 Brighton - Main Beach e/w @ 7's 4:40 Haydock - Palazzo Bianco @ 9/2 Good Luck all. Raise my glass to OLDESTBRFC what a charachter and a good friend too.
Very hungover! Free Bar in the Mess last night Home time cannot come quick enough and then gotta do it all again for the footy 3 for me today and all at Haydock: 410: Free For All has run some good races this season and this 7f will suit. 440: Charlie Longsdon has had a great year over jumps and his Wild Desert could take this at a nice EW price. 510: Making Eyes is on the upgrade but has won both races well to date so can only improve, again a nice EW price. Be Lucky all
Did anyone get the 20's about Scary Movie last night? I only managed to pick up the 12's this morning. Already down to single figures in places ROTO.
Just a few to go at for me today... Brighton... 2.50 - Golden Waters, 10/3 4.20 - Highland Harvest, 5/1 Chepstow... 4.30 - Lucky Meadows, 9/2 Good luck to all today...
Afternoon All I quite like David Barrons 3yo GOTTCHER in the 1.40 at Haydock .Seems to like both the distance and racecourse. In its last race his start was hampered and came 4/7 otherwise i thoughtly expected to challenge the leader that day (York Glory) which has a higher OR rating (83). If it gets a good start i can see it winning this, last time out at Haydock on same distance it seemed have more fuel in the tank by the end.
