Article: Friday 26 August Daily Thread | Horse Racing

3.40 Ffos Llas

Five Star Junior 20/1

Quite like the look of Linda Stubbs sole runner tomorrow in the shape of Five Star Junior. This heavily raced 5 year old gelding, with 50 races to date, has already notched up 14 runs this year and comes here after disappointing the last few times. Five Star Juniors career has seen him notch up 7 wins and 15 place efforts which is an impressive 44% rate of finishing in the money. Even still, the last few poor efforts are excusable and you don’t have to go far to find good efforts. Five Star Junior started out this year by embarking on an AW campaign and was in largely good form as he notched up 1 win and 3 places from 6 runs and was never far out of the frame. It is arguable that he is perhaps slightly better on the AW but I think it is still important to analyse the strength of these performances. These included narrow defeats to Edinburgh Knight and Anne of Kiev, who have won off higher turf marks subsequently.

Five Star Junior holds an 8lb lower mark of 90 on the turf when compared to the AW, and his turf mark has dropped 5lb from his last effort after finishing 5.5L behind Secret Witness LTO, who re-opposes today off 7lb worse terms. Five Star Junior seemed outpaced over 5f early on before doing his best work in the closing stages but still was nowhere near close to getting to the winner. If Five Star Junior puts in the same performance as he did he won’t reverse the form but he generally tends to throw in a few shocking runs and finds form from nowhere so that isn’t too much of a concern to me with the step back to 6f a positive.

Five Star Junior has posted 3 good runs this year on the turf: a 4L 4th behind Iver Bridge Lad off a mark of 94; a 1L 3rd to Fitz Flyer and a 1.25L 2nd behind Dinkum Diamond of todays mark of 90. Dinkum Diamond finished 5L behind subsequent Group 1 winner Margot Did before beating Five Star Junior, so that form doesn’t look to bad at all. Further to this, Five Star Junior won off a mark of 91 last year and performed well off a mark of 100 as a 3 year old so it is clear to me that he is definitely capable of winning off this mark. Even more encouraging is that Five Star Junior holds a Group 3 entry at the Curragh on Sunday so that demonstrates to me that Linda Stubbs feels her gelding is in fine form at home.

Stubbs makes the long journey from North Yorkshire to Ffos Las for what is her only runner of the day and only her 2nd runner at the track ever. Her first runner Bronze Beau was unfancied on both form and in the betting but was very unlucky to lose in a photograph so to me this clearly indicates that she would not be making this long journey unless she fancied Five Star Junior to run a big race. Shane Kelly is a very interesting jockey booking and is the first time he rides for Stubbs this year. However, he has ridden for Five Star Junior 7 times in the past including 2 wins and 2 places so he clearly gets on well with him and rejoins his old companion for the first time since December 2009. I think this is very significant as it shows that Stubbs has booked a jockey who knows the horse but does not ride for her regularly as she is expected a strong performance.

All in all I am expecting Five Star Junior to run a very good race and the 20/1 currently on offer seems very big to me. With all his best work on ground that is good any rain tomorrow would be a big negative. The Group 3 entry and the booking of Shane Kelly are big positives in my eyes, as is Linda Stubbs long journey with one runner where she was very close to having a 100% record. This looks a very open race tomorrow and I like the look of Piazzo San Pietro also and will have a saver on him as he has form with Lutine Bell who I rate a lot. The 2 Irish raiders definitely look threatening also and it is a really competitive heat. If Five Star Junior bounces back from a few poor efforts he is definitely weighted to run well for a yard that has been in the winners recently and I think this 5 year old gelding can definitely win this if back to his best.

2.55 Newmarket

Afaal FC 20/1

Going to take a chance on this nicely bred William Haggas debutant who is out of the Stallion Hard Spun that I have been following very closely. Hard Spun is a first season sire and his progeny appear to being doing extremely well over here, with 4 of the 6 that have currently seen a race course winning with the overall record standing at 6 wins and 2 placed efforts from the combined 13 runs. Furthermore, and very important for tomorrow, 3 of the horses won on their debuts so thats a big bonus as they appear to make it to the racecourse very forward. Hard Spun already boasts of a Group 2 winner in the shape of Red Duke, who was unlucky in running when trying to double this tally.

Taking a look at Afaal specifically, he is quite a nicely bred gelding. He is a half brother to a 7f winner as well as half sister to the very talented Fath and Dumaani. Further to this, although his Dam Alattrah is unraced, she is a full sister to top class 1,000 Guineas winner Shadayid so Afaal definitely is bred well enough to take this contest. Trainer William Haggas has a 33% strike rate at the July course this year with his 2 year olds so I think it is significant he has waited to run Afaal at a course where is successful. Liam Jones takes the ride for Haggas and although it is a very open contest with a lot of potentially very nice types, I think the record of Hard Spun’s offspring are very encouraging and Afaal could certainly run well at a massive price.

 

Thanks ROTO.

Haven't had a proper perusal of tomorrows action yet but must admit to being curious to see how Canford Cliff's half brother performs in the 2.55 at HQ.

This looks a potentially informative contest.The colt in question is owned by the Middleham Park syndicate and cost £100,000.I don't ever remember one of their syndicates paying so much for a horse under either code.Always fascinating to see how the siblings of the famous get on,even those with lesser pedigree's.

Hasta Manana.

 

Nemarket 3.30

Manifestation 4/1 - 3 points win
Mister Angry 13/2 - 2 points win

5 points staked for 15 points return = 2/1 the pair

 

2.20 Newmarket

Come on Blue Chip FC 33/1

Expecting this to be a big price and like the look of Paul D’Arcy’s sole runner tomorrow. This 2 YO has had 4 starts to date and made a rather promising debut in May at Newmarket when a running on 3rd at a big price. That run was over 5f and he was staying on very nicely at the finish and with another stride he would have taken 2nd place. The 2 horses in front of him that day are talented animals. The winner Commissar, who finished 5.12L in front of todays selection, has subsequently been stepped up to Group 2 level on his 2 latest starts (The Coventry and Superlative Stakes) and although he was well down the field in both, it clearly demonstrates he is held in very high regard. The 2nd horse Tell Dad subsequently finished 1.62L behind B Fifty Two on his next start and he also ran in a Group 2 at Ascot in Norfolk stakes and is rated 85.

The effort of Tell Dad behind B Fifty Two looks very strong, with the latter horse running a very credible 6th in the Coventry, a good 3.25L defeat in a Listed race and a 1L defeat 2nd in a Group 2 in Deauville recently. He also now holds a mark of 97. The 5th in Come on Blue Chips debut race, who finished 1.25L behind tomorrows selection, won on his next outing and contested the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes (last) on his latest outing. The 6th Mizbah has subsequently come out and won once and finished 2nd twice on his 3 other starts. The 7th Democretes won on his subsequent start and has since placed off a mark of 76. The last that day Red Aggressor has subsequently come 2nd to 2 good horses in the shape of Arnold Lane and Rebellious Guest as well as running credibly in the Coventry Stakes when finishing 9th. This race is far and above the standard of an average maiden and it contained a lot of good horses. Although he hasn’t set the world alight on his 3 subsequent starts, Come on Blue Chip clearly is a talented horse on the basis of this run. Furthermore, he was staying on very well at the finish and shaped as if further will suit.

On his 2nd start, Come on Blue Chip was ridden fairly prominently from the start which I don’t think was to his advantage. He was stepped up to a trip of 6f and although he ran a good race for large parts, he finished a distant 7th. Its possible this run which came 11 days after his debut was too soon but I think ever horse can be forgive for one bad run. Come on Blue Chips’ run came midway through June when he finished 5th at Newmarket 6.5L behind Sovereign Debt. However, I think its fair to say that his performance was better than the bare result as he was doing his best work towards the finish.

On his last start, Come on Blue Chip was disappointing and its possible that he has regressed from his very encouraging debut performance but with only 4 starts to date he is clearly unexposed. He has been dropped 4lb to a very manageable mark of 67 and makes his nursery debut tomorrow. He is stepped up to 1m for the first time tomorrow and it appears clear to me that this is definitely going to suit. Very interesting the talented Martin Dwyer takes the ride tomorrow and it represents his first ever ride for the D’Arcy stable which I think is significant. Although its hard to see any real reasons for his latest 3 poor performances if he runs to the level of his debut off his lowly mark than he could prove to be very well handicapped and at the projected price (which I think could be bigger), I definitely think he is worth a play.

 

Todays racing is so difficult. I will wait until tomorrow!!

Good luck one and all.

 

Morning all, last couple of bets today then it's athletics all week-end, should be truly outstanding!

255N: With many of the top yards entered I agree that the value could lie with Mr Haggas's AFAAL, he does well with his newcomers and should be a tasty price.

340 Ffos: I have backed this horse a few times this season and think Secret Witness could go very well and is a strong EW bet at the price. Zero Money makes the market but has to improve to defy the 6lb rise and 2nd fav Mirza is a grade 4 handicapper so also has to improve! Secret Witness has won in this grade and performed well off this mark previously.

Be Lucky all who play today

 

morning men
not looked today but at rainy Redcar tommorow

Al Doha wins (trust me)

Hal of a Lover wins

BPG WONT RUN IF IT STAYS AS FORCAST

Majesttic Millie EW

Stay Frosty and thank me Sunday

 

PS
great reads and write ups ROTO, and even better prices will watch these with interest

 

Morning all,

Danbo, Valley of Hope out today, 5.20 at Newcy. Have text the main man to see if he's heard anything.

Cheers for those tips mate.

Also great write ups and selections today. Good luck everyone.

 

Thanks for the info,

I too will be there...hoping to pocket that £500 Rolex for best dressed male!

 

Morning all

smashing write ups ROTO

copied this from my blog


4.35 Newmarket Grants Whisky Handicap (Class 3) (3YO only) – 3pts win TUSCANIA

I am going to take a different approach today and talk more about why I am backing the selection rather than previewing the whole field. I have done my homework for this race and I am very confident TUSCANIA will be bang there come the finish. Sir Michael Stoute’s Filly looked a nice prospect when readily drawing away from her field in a Kempton maiden on debut showing a nice turn of foot in the process. On her only other start as a juvenile she ran 5th of 15 in a Listed heat at Newbury and whilst she was soundly beaten this was obviously a step up in class and she built on her debut form, it didn’t help that she seemed to be on the wrong side and this effort was certainly respectable.

Her two starts as a juvenile certainly set up an interesting 3yo campaign, however things haven’t went to plan so far this season starting at Newmarket when again she showed herself as a filly with plenty of class, right out towards the back and pushed along with about 3 1/2 f left to go she stayed on nicely and was also denied a clear run at a vital stage of the race and eventually finished a creditable 4th. At Goodwood I thought she was a cracking bet but she only managed to finish midfield, she travelled really powerfully in to the race that day but again got boxed in a couple of times when trying to make her effort. I will point out she wouldn’t have won that day anyways but this was a strong race with several 100+ types in the race, in the and she was allowed to come home in her own time by Ryan Moore and was never asked for maximum effort once the winning opportunity had passed away.

Tuscania’s latest start was 15 days ago over Course and Distance and this run was the one that alerted me to the point that she looks ready to win. She wouldn’t have been suited by the slow pace in this 8 runner heat but having been held up in the rear under Tom Queally she was still hacking along and yet to be asked any sort of question 2f out when there was just no room for her at all, even when switched by Queally she was boxed in again. The gap only appeared with 1f left go and she rattled home to finish 3rd with the comment a lot of next time out punters look for appearing next to her name nearest finish.

I would like to point out that I can see why Tuscania wouldn’t be the ideal bet for many as she has been unlucky several times this season and often punters get sick of making excuses for these types. She could also be ready for a step up in distance as in all but one of her races she has been staying on stoutly towards the end of her race. However I do feel she is capable of winning over 7f and at 9/2 she offers some decent value. There are a couple in the field that I fear (My Freedom and White Frost) but I am very confident of a big run from this Sir Michael Stoute trained filly.

 

Morning all, just popped my head round the door as I wanted to point out to Nassau that the Medaglia D'Oro colt (from last year's Tattersalls Breeze Up) that we were discussing the other day runs in the 4.05 at Newmarket this afternoon.

There are some cracking 2yos spread across the 3 maidens at HQ this afternoon, obviously the Canford Cliffs half-brother MAYO LAD is interesting, though for me SHADA in the 1.50 is of much interest as the stable have won this race 4 times in the last 10 runnings.
An honourable mention for Her Majesty in the 2.55, with her cleverly named BANK BONUS, out of Small Fortune

Just going to be pedantic for a second, as I wouldn't be doing my job otherwise police, but ROTO: a horse is BY a stallion and OUT OF the mare, not the other way around! Easiest way to remember it is the horse is out of the one that gives birth

 

Smokin: You wont get any competition there from Dandoro

 

I will have you know Mr Beau that i will relinquish my title if you scrub up to the required standard
GDC, wash your mouth my man, i was once voted the best dressed man at the ugly bug ball

 

Cheers PN, interesting to see how it goes.

 

Danb: