4.35 Roscommon Orafinitis 14/1 As many of you know Iâve been following Desmond McDonoghâs 3 year old since debut as well as many other horses from that race as it has proved to be very strong including Misty for Me, Katla and Why. After a lot of poor efforts after debut, Orafinitis showed the promise witnessed on debut as she won her first race after a 7 month absence by 1L off a mark of 56. She certainly won with a bit in hand after getting bumped leaving the stalls and coming very wide to win going away. The handicapper raised her 8lbs a result of that win and I certainly think she is capable of winning off a mark of this level. The form of her winning race hasnât worked out too badly at all. The 2nd El Toreros has put in a couple of decent efforts off 2lb and 3lb higher marks. Measured Approval the 5th that day has subsequently came out and won next time out by 1.75L and the 7th Golden Starlet went down by a short 2nd NTO. Further to this, Painted Fingers the 9th, who was 7.25L behind Orafinitis, has won off a mark 1lb lower mark since. This form demonstrates it wasnât a terrible maiden she won against fellow 3 year olds but she disappointed on her next start, and although I really should have known that with the trainers son Declan jumping off to ride what turned out to be the winner, I stuck to my guns and was disappointed. Orafinitis made her last start 1 month after her win back in June and I was disappointed. She had a good racing position throughout and would have had every opportunity if good enough but she didnât find much when asked for an effort and the jockey Sam James eased her right down about 1f out when it was clear she had no chance of making the frame. I would be lying if I said I wasnât quite disappointed and I donât really have any excuses bar 1 month not being enough recovery time (her two best efforts have come fresh on debut and 7 months off the track). It appears that she ran into quite a few nice types that day such as Spin of A Coin and Ted Dolly who have being performing very well and are now 10lb and 15lb higher respectively. This filly will have to turn the tables with Balladiene who finished a distant 5th that day but I wouldnât be too concerned as both didnât show much. I really hope Orafinitis takes another step forward today as I have full belief that she is better than her current mark of 63. With the ground currently soft at Roscommon its a complete unknown as to how she will act on the ground, although her debut was on Good to Yielding. The trainers so is back on board tomorrow which is a big positive especially as his boss Kevin Prendergast has a runner in the race. Sheâs had a nice break of 2 ½ months so Iâm hoping this will be the key to her success tomorrow. She may very well be a non runner tomorrow due to the ground (and I hope she is if she wonât like it) but Iâll have a small bet on her in the hope she is back to her best. I have faith in Desmond McDonoghâs filly and I hope that son Declan can bring her home in front again. 14/1 is a fair price about her but I would advise people not having a bet straight away as I can see there being a fair few non runners with the ground and potentially a few big Rule 4s and I donât think Orafinitis will get heavily backed. 6.35 Roscommon Massinimoss 16/1 Quite like the look of JP Dempseyâs 6 year old tomorrow who I think has shown a fair bit more than the form figures suggests. After moving to his current yard back in March, Massinimoss disappointed on his first 2 outings and with Ruby Walsh being booked on both occasions it certainly shows me that this horse has not lived up to the expectations of his trainer for whatever reason. Massinimossâ first real glimpse of form came on his handicap debut as he finished 6.75L back in 7th behind Solider Bay. This gelding looked certain to battle it out for a place before he hit the last fence hard which ruined his claims. However, the form of that race has worked out quite nicely. The form of that race looks pretty strong. The 4th that day Ongenstown Lad, who finished 2L in front of Massinimoss, has subsequently wont twice including by 5L off a 10lb higher mark and who is now rated 26lb higher than from this race. The 5th Sir Walter Raleigh has come out and won since off a 3lb higher mark while the 6th has finished 2nd off the same mark and the 8th winning off a 1lb lower mark on the its next start. Massinimossâs next start was quite disappointing when he was quite well supported before disappointing. His jumping let him down badly that day and he faded away quite tamely. Even still the form of that race looks good with the 3rd and 4th winning subsequently. On his last start, Massinimoss was stepped up to 3m for the first time and to my eyes ran a far more encouraging race. He sat about 3rd for the entire race and travelled as well as any other horse for the vast majority of it before appearing to empty 3f from the finish. It was strange as the jockey Tom Doyle had sent out no distress signals before he dropped back. Doyle administered a couple of smack of the whips which seemed to rejuvenate his horse as he stayed on past beaten horses but he still finished a distant 5th. However, I donâ think that Massinimoss was given the most testing ride in the world and I was encouraged by a lot of things, most notably his jumping which was much much better. The dead heat winners have shown some good form two with one winning off a 14lb higher (chasing mark) on her next start and the other placing off a 6lb higher mark. Massinimoss is dropped back down to 2m 4f tomorrow and although I see his best distance being an untried 2m 6f, I am hoping with the projected soft ground his extra stamina will come into play. Apprentice Keith Donoghue takes the ride on Massinimoss for the first time tomorrow and it represents his 1st ride for the stable too in this Pro/Am Handicap Hurdle. Although he is a jockey I donât know too much about, he has notched up 26 career wins and rides a lot for Gordon Elliot so he must be pretty decent. Although the ground is a total unknown (placed in a bumper on Good, Yielding in Places) I think this 6 year old definitely has more to offer off his current mark of 94. His jumping seems to have improved a lot and if acting on the ground I can see him going close at a nice price.
BPG back out at Newcastle, should win BUT BE WARY the groud might not suit if it gets any softer then keep your powder dry small stakes if it keeps like this maybe try Spahi in same race EW at 20s for value this horse has a win in it but its hard to get that win out!!!!!!! Simple Jim will run a good race im told Cool Rythem, expect big things get on early stay frosty
Morning all Dan best of luck with BPG today. Nap vote for me goes to Cappagh in the 3.30 at Newton Abbot. Decent little contest this with the top 6 being within 5lbs of each other but I think Cappagh could turn out to be an above average chaser. He is 2 from 2 over the larger obstacles having won on the bit at Perth over 2m before stepping up to 2m5f at Ffos las where he really dug in to defeat Sonny Mullen. The subsequent exploits of Sonny Mullen (won the Perth Gold Cup off 134 and is now rated in the 150s) makes that bit of form look particularly useful. Goes well fresh and with AP in tremendous form he gets the nap today. Best of luck everyone
as stated elsewhere - Sorry to put this up so early but I really think people should take some of the 4/1 about Maastricht in the 4.10 at Bath tomorrow. The key is the step up in trip for this horse and I can't believe that the bookies are offering a price as big as this. He is by Tiger Hill (sire of Rewilding) and he is a big influence for stamina, and this runner showed last time up that he looks a stayer in the making. He showed last time that he is one that could be tough to pass when he gets his conditions and on breeding 10 furlongs is exactly what he has been crying out for. His dam was a very talented 10 furlong horse and as noted his sire has better statistics over staying trips than he does over the mile or shorter. I think most of the field have obvious stamina doubts and I think they will try and stretch the field from the off and 4/1 is very fair. get on.
Really nice e/w shout for me today: 4.10 Bath- ENJOYING 14/1 ew- If ever there was a horse BEGGING for a step up in trip it is this. Been doing all of its best work late in his short career so far, and been much bettter than the bare form suggests. I think it is subsequently slightly underestimated off a mark of 61 and with Kieren O'Neil claiming a further 3lb this is a horse with a fair bit going for it today. Been running mainly over 7f and tried 1m last time, again held up and keeping on without quite threatening. A horse by Marju, he will definitely be seen to better effect over a mile and a quarter today, as it needs the stamina drawn out that little bit more. Low weight, very good claimer on top, and a much-needed step up in trip. Worth an each-way play for me.
Cappagh the only bet for me today Odddy best of luck with it m8. Would have backed that Pipe/Magnier,Tabor & Smith horse but a non runner very interesting for hurdles I would think having been switched from Sir Michael Stoute/ Cheevley Park. Good luck to you all
Nass interesting selection fella - I have been following GLEE since debut and I know she is going to win at a nice price soon - today I am hoping for a non staying effort over that distance and maybe get dropped a couple of lbs as a result
RV, I like Glee too and it is one I'm keeping an eye on. I just can't see it being suited over the longer trip today, hence me backing the Hannon '2nd string' at a nice price.
Good afty all, hope we are all well... Not much for today but a few interesting runs at Newton Abbot... 5.00 - Justabout, 13/2 NAP... With the trip and ground to suit, Tizzrds mount here can take the honours here. Stamina will not be a problem over this 3m3f trip as he has won form 2m7f up to 3m5f. A Fourth lto, but that was on soft ground and the first run since a break... Others at Newton Abbot... 2.30 - No Waman No Cry, 7/2 3.00 - King Ozzy, 4/1 3.30 - Spock, 9/4 4.00 - Fountains Flypast, 9/4 4.30 - Clu Agus Cain, 9/4 5.30 - Argum, evens Good luck to all who play today...
EFFERVESCE (3.40 Bath) Odddy - nicely bred sort- 73 rated but could still be interesting over hurdles if she stays - seen worse horses on the flat do well when switched Topclass - Yeah I agree today is the first time I have left her in a while - she put in a non staying effort last time out over a shorter trip so not today for me - good luck with Hannon 2nd string m8
Couple for me today but they have concerns! 320Newc: Blue Noodles has dropped to ana amazing mark and will win soon, the downside is the trainer is not having the best of seasons. Will love the ground and distance though so is a nice EW bet. 420Newc: Circus Clown has been raised despite not running so the handicapper may have got the better now. 450Newc: Although preferring fast ground anyone that saw how easily Miss Ferney travelled and won on Friday (hope some of you backed her ) todays softer ground may not be enough to stop her winning and running up a sequence in a short spell!! Be Lucky all and Danbo: Good luck with BPG although the ground may be softer than it says i reckon mate
One from me today 3.20 Newcastle - Moonlight Mystery 16/1 NAP is Chris Walls only runner there today and travels a long way from Newmarket. Breeding suggests the going will be to her liking and having raced in Class 4 and 5 races she drops to Class 6 Company and is down 2lb from her last race. LTO she went off as favoutite but didnt perform on the AW at Kempton. Today she returns to the turf on similar going to her last run on that surface at Newmarket where she was beaten 7 1/2 Lengths by some useful types such as Qushchi, Choral, Joviality and Field Of Miracles all of whom have decent form lines and raced a far higher level.
Hello lads. A few decent contests today but nothing takes my eye. Some interesting viewpoints on the 4.10 at Bath. GL anyone having a go.
Mr Fallon to ride Brown Panther in the Leger makes for a nice looking race with the shortie Sea Moon BUT surely Mr Gosden must have a superb chance with Masked Marvel! He certainly knows how to win this race and brings great form with him. Cannot have Census beating him and although Sea Moon has won on good ground the yard have frequently mentioned he is far better with cut! If the rains do not make Donny Masked Marvel will go off far shorter than 9s
Like a couple of ew's at Newton Abbot 3.00 Surf and Turf ew 18/1 stan james 4.00 De Luain Gorri ew 20/1 stan james
3 at Bath for me today: 3-10 Seeking Magic, 3-40 Sasheen, 4-40 Indochina Got my ticket for the St Leger at the weekend - if anyone has any views on do and don'ts at Doncaster it would be good to hear. Cheers
