3.05 York Mont Agel 12/1 NAP I think 12/1 could look rather foolish this time tomorrow for this Michael Bell trained colt. If you discount his last 3 races at Royal Ascot, Newmarket and Goodwood as a result of a poor draws (certainly applicable at Royal Ascot and very much an argument at Newmarket + missing the break LTO) and take the form of his effort 3 starts back then his chances look excellent. This very lightly raced 4 year old has only had 11 starts to date in his career and thus remains pretty unexposed and definitely open to improvement. Placed on his debut over 7f, Mont Agel came out and won his next start over a mile at Windsor very impressively by 3.5L. Although the form of that race hasn’t worked out fantastically (2nd won off 83), he was mighty impressive that day and could have won with a lot more in hand. Mont Agel form is pretty patchy, with good efforts surrounded by some poor ones. However, if you discount his last 3 races due to the draw and 2 efforts on softish ground then he has performed admirably in 3 of his 7 starts. Although it is probably a push to be looking for reasons that he underperformed on soft ground, it is at least a viable opinion. In May of this year, Mont Agel ran by far his the best race in his career to date when finishing an agonisingly close head behind St Moritz over C+D off a mark of 95. Hayley Turner gave him a fantastic ride that day and was unlucky to be touched off by a better horse on the day. The form of that race is working out very nicely indeed. St Moritz has subsequently come 2nd twice off a 3lb higher mark. The first of these efforts was behind Fanunalter who has subsequently finished 0.75L behind Dick Turpin off a 3lb higher mark and who was rather unlucky LTO in the Sovereign Stakes. The form of this race looks very strong also further back. Dance and Dance finished a neck behind in 3rd off a mark off a mark of 96 and has subsequently finished 0.25L behind Side Glance in the Sovereign and is now rated 108. The large rise in the weights is due to Dance and Dance’s excellent second behind Julienas at Royal Ascot. Furthermore, and very relevant as he opposes tomorrow, Pintura finished 4th that day and has 1L to make up but is now 4lb worse off for their meeting at York. Finally, Mont Agel is drawn well in stall 8 with his effort over C+D coming from stall 7 back in May. LTO after missing the break from a wide stall he completely forfeited his chance and Olivier Peslier gave him a very tender ride in the first time visor, which is on again tomorrow. The excellent Tom Queally gets the ride tomorrow and has an fantastic record for the yard, with a win from his sole ride this year and has a 20% strike rate from 50 rides in the last 5 years. The Bell yard are also in tremendous form, with 7 winners from their last 16 runners which clearly demonstrates their horses are at peak. I am hoping the visor will bring out a bit of improvement for this colt but if he emulates the form of his run here back in May from a 2lb higher mark then he surely will be incredibly difficult to stop. Mont Agel represents my NAP of the festival and fingers crossed I’ll be rewarded for my patience.
Can someone look at the 8.10 at Southwell and tell me the swing in weights for Brio with Suddenly Susan please. Think RP have it wrong but I am doubting myself!!
2.00 Electric Qatar 25/1 EW Interesting horse of Dascombe's, the yard called him a machine before his debut and he ran a big race that day. He then ran in a 3 runner novice race that made him look average, however he was very eyecatching in the big sales race last time out. I think he can do a lot better than he has shown so far and I think he will run a big race here. 2.30 Angels Will Fall 4/1 I like the three market leaders in the race and will be backing them in forecasts but I think Angels Will Fall is the one to be with here and hope that she gives Barry Hills the perfect send off. She was very impressive last time out in what I thought was a good race and I think its crucial that she receives weight from Ghamilati here. I think Shumoos could return to winning ways but I am becoming wary of her. Angels Will Fall to make the old boy a happy camper 3.05 Fareer 18/1 EW All dressed up and nowhere to go is a statement made for this horse and this is the time I really quite fancy him to change the old tune. He has been unlucky this season to be given inept rides and get trouble in running. He hasn't got Richard Hills to battle against and that alone makes him interesting, however its a shame he has Richard Hills mk2 on instead!! On his course run in May I think he should be single figure odds. 3.40 Crystal Capella 7/2 She took my eye at Goodwood and this trip is the one that will see her at her optimum. She holds the best form in the race for me and I think this field is set up for her. I really like her in this race and make her the nap of the day.
Evening all - this is from my blog so sorry if it gets messed up during the transfer- if anyone wants to read my preview on the Yorkshire Oaks it is on http://sportstipsandbets.wordpress.com/ - it has silks and stuff so impossible to copy over 2.00 Dbs Premier Yearling Stakes (Class 2) (2YO only) Yet another 20 runner race to start the York card and picking the winner will certainly be challenging for anyone looking to solve the race. It is obvious to see why so many trainers have targeted the race though as the winner will pick up a smashing first prize (£136,868) I will have a pop at finding the winner because there looks to be some nice value around in the race. Crown dependency sets the standard but this is reflected in his price and in such a big field 5/2 just doesn’t appeal to me. Hestian looked a useful prospect when winning nicely on his debut at Naas and should run a respectable race but 5/1 seems a bit short for the least experienced runner in this large field. I am looking for a horse available at double figured odds and therefore I will be having an E.W punt on the clearly talented but frustrating MAGIC CITY Richard Hannon’s Colt looked a potential superstar when hacking up on debut at Newbury but hasn’t built on that since, there was however plenty to take from his latest performance when chasing home West Leake Diman at Newmarket (runs again today). That horse is currently priced up around 7/1 but the selection is now 10lbs better off for a half-length defeat so you can see where I am coming from when pointing out that Magic City could offer some value at 16-1. I suppose the reason we can get this price is because Richard Hughes has opted to ride the favourite but that is no surprise and it doesn’t put me off. At an even bigger price I fancy ELECTRIC QATAR to perform better than the market suggests. He is currently priced up at around the 20/1 mark. Tom Dascombe’s runner has a lofty reputation but is yet to build on his promising debut at Newcastle back in June. However he has had excuses in his two subsequent starts ( slow pace didn’t suit in 3 runner race, and hampered when showing some ability when midfield in the super sprint at Newbury). If staying out of trouble tomorrow it will be interesting to see how he performs with a strong pace likely to suit BETS = 0.5pts E.W Electric Qatar (20-1 BOG) & 0.5pts E.W Magic City (14-1 BOG) 2.30 Jaguar Cars Lowther Stakes (Fillies’ Group 2) (Class 1) (2YO only) A brilliant renewal of the Lowther Stakes and straight away I would like to say I actually like the two at the top of the weights. Best Terms carries a Group 2 penalty after keeping her unbeaten record when landing the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot. She short headed Shumoos that day (runs again here) but she is perhaps the one open to further improvement and will certainly be suited by the step up to 6f. I certainly feel she will run a big race but I have decided to pass her over in favour of GAMILATI . This is a filly I really rate and having finished runner-up in two very hot maidens at Newmarket she got off the mark at the third time of asking when readily taking the Cherry Hinton Stakes (Carries Group 2 Penalty as a result of win) (Shumoos 3rd Interobil 4th). Although these two rivals are now better off at the weights I feel the selection may well be a bit special and is cracking value at 4-1. It would be unfair not to mention Angels Will Fall, she has looked a useful prospect winning both of her starts so far (latest in group 3 company) she is contesting favoritism and has to be respected. The Irish raider Fire Lilly looks best of the rest BET = 2pts win Gamilati (4/1 BOG) Good luck all
Going to York this aft so here are my selections.......so far!! 2.00 Gerfalcon e/w 2.30 Angels Will Fall 3.05 Smarty Socks e/w 3.40 Crystal Capella NAP 4.15 Field Of Miracles (tentative) 4.50 Deauville Flyer As you can see I am hoping for a good day for King Kieren Good luck all P.S. Anyone else going?
Morning all - would be nice to build up a fighting fund for my trip to york tomorrow. The 2 I really like are favourites - Crown Dependency in the first and Blue Bunting in the Yorkshire Oaks. Both singles.
Yorkies: Have a great day mate Have a small EW investment on Vainglory in the 305 mate, has been running well and you might be able to sneak some 25s or 33s
Hoping my luck has changed after Sea Moon and Twice Over yesterday. Putting my wedge on Angels Will Fall, who won't be as inconvenienced by soft going as some people reckon, and Vita Nova, due a big one and unlucky last time out. Good luck to all
Morning Men starboard 10 Roger Sez ew Fire Lilly SMARTY sOCKS EW CrYSTAL cAP WIN Set to Music EW Exempalry EW p pot singles and small ew accum sorry for typo Stay Frosty
Morning All, couple of fancies at York today: 2.30 Shumoos 3.05 Invisible Man 3.40 Vita Nova Good luck All
Dandoro: Get off your phone you nugget Tominator not made the cut for the Ebor, money back but still frustrating! Blissful Moment the one from my ante post bets so will have to look again now
