A very competitve race with some experienced chasers. Then we have the newest hottest chaser in Grand Crus. The Argento Chase is run over the same course as the Gold Cup, but is a furlong shorter at three miles and one and a half furlongs Grands Crus- Now he isnt running! Captain Chris- 3/1 Is now favourite with 99% of the bookies He had a brilliant form as a novice but has yet to win this season. Philip Hobbs’ eight-year-old is an outstanding athlete on his day, but he has encountered a number of set-backs already this year. Finishing third in the King George to Kauto Star and Long Run was a top effort, especially as the only horse from that race to have run since, fourth-placed Somersby, won a Grade One last weekend at Ascot. Captain Chris is usually at his best at this time of year, and if he runs up to form he will surely not be out of the first three here. Time For Rupert- 4/1 Got his chasing career back on track when winning a Graduation Chase at Newbury last month. His hurdling form with Big Buck’s meant that he was sent off as the 7/4 favourite for last year’s RSA Chase, but he bled in the big race and ended up being soundly beaten by Bostons Angel. At eight-years-old he has plenty of time on his side to make the step up to the highest level, but he looks just short of top notch and preference is still for the unexposed Grands Crus. Intresting to see that Rupert’s new jockey is now Denis O’Regan. Diamond Harry 3/1 Is now 2nd favourite but can get as big as 7/2 and Bet365 has him down @ 3/1 Jt Fav now with Grand Crus gone his chances have improved and A big favourite of mine- would love to see him win after the year or 2 he has had! He famously beat Denman two starts ago in the Hennessy Gold Cup, but has had a number of problems since, and was on the sidelines last March when Long Run won the Gold Cup. Had a fairly decent run in the betfair chase and would have only done him the world of good! Some argue that he does not run his best races at Cheltenham, but if he is fit and runs to his best then he should at least make the frame at the very least. It is hard to see him winning the Gold Cup at 25/1 with Stan James but again place claims definately in his reach especially without the mighty tank, but saying that he would not be the first horse to come back fighting and win after a bit of TLC. Midnight Chase 6/1 He fits the bill as a veteran with plenty of jumping experience, and he has finished in the first three in six of his seven races at Prestbury Park. The only time when he did not make the frame was last March, when he finished a gallant fifth to Long Run in the Gold Cup. The Minack 11/1 A horse in good heart, but the 11/1 shot is certainly not good enough to beat all the horses at the top of the market. On the other hand his stable-mate Tidal Bay could out-run his odds of 8/1, and he seems to do well in the month of January. Carruthers 20/1 Would be another fairy tale if to win this after his brilliant Hennessy victory but was very disappioting in the welsh national, alittle to hard for him maybe!, but even so on better ground I feel compared to the top 3/4 in the market alot more is needed, The remainder are all available at 25/1 or bigger and have plenty to prove based on recent form: Knockara Beau, Little Josh, Any Currency and The Sawyer. Conclusion- Now with Grand Crus- I have had to rethink this. Funny enough now I am going fo Diamond Harry I know people will have his hesitations about him, but if 100% he is easily as classy as Captain Chris. This is his big chance to get his racing back on track and win a major race like this. I was worried about the pace they would go but cant really see anything now wanting to go too quick which will suit him. He has had a bit of break after his last run which both the break and the run would have done him the world of good! I can see him taking the honours ahead of Captain Chris come Saturday. And I expect Tidal Bay to run a big race and he will be my e/w now! Take it before the value goes on saturday!
Grand Crus is some horse, A horse with a serious engine and as taken to fences like a duck to water he deserves his chance in this race. Do I think he is a certainty and am I rushing to back him at 2/1? No... This looks an open looking race to Me, The likes of Diamond Harry, Time For Rupert, Captain Chris, Midnight Chase, Carruthers, Master Of The Hall, Little Josh are smart horses in there own right and its another step up for Grand Crus in this company. If he as any aspirations of running in the Blue Riband then he should be winning this but I wouldn't be suprised to see an horse at a big price come out and win this. I've been quite taken by The Minack's last two performances he's given weight all round in his last two starts and won both and I wouldn't totally write him off Woolcombe at running into a place or who knows winning hes currently rated 159 and theres not alot between himself and the market leaders, He needs to improve a fair deal again but at 11/1 he is abit of value! But Im gonna go with Captain Chris to build on his King George win, I've already backed him at 16/1 for the Gold Cup as I think Cheltenham suits him more than Kempton and that would be My thinking into this race. At 5/1 I think thats pretty good value and I've filled My boots... So for Me... Captain Chris win at 5/1 The Minack E/W at 11/1
I think that for me the race looks like it should be about: Captain Chris & Grands Crus 2-1 Jfavs Diamond Harry 4-1 Time for Rupert 8-1 The rest 9-1 or above. So therefore Diamond Harry and Captain Chris represent the value. Captain Chris win @ 5/1 Diamond Harry EW @ 11/2 I actually think that Grands Crus may well be worth taking on here. Despite his excellent Cheltenham record, I'm not 100% convinced that Grands Crus really will suit the full 3m1.5f at Cheltenham - I think Kempton is more his cup of tea. I don't think that Time for Rupert is anywhere near quick enough to win this, or that The Minack, Tiday Bay or Carruthers are up to this level of class. However...... I wouldn't be backing Diamond Harry until just before the race, and wouldn't want him at odds any shorter than this, I've gone EW because I think this race could well end with Captain Chris, Diamond Harry and Grands Crus a long way from the rest of the field, and I suspect that Diamond Harry wouldn't come up on top, but with 8 or more runners, really should be placing.
I have already backed . . . Grands Crus - 5/2 Paddy Power Captain Chris - 6/1 Victor Chandler I would be most disappointed if one of those two couldn't win. Time For Rupert is slow, Diamond Harry goes best fresh and has had his problems this season, Midnight Chase is not up to this level, Tidal Bay is an enigma and could go well but I'd be surprised and disappointed if he won, The Minack is interesting up in grade but still has a bit to find, the rest look out of their depth. Simple as that!
Actually, after looking at this in a bit more detail, I am if anything more confident. I can see Diamond Harry setting a strong pace, having come on for running in the Betfair, with Captain Chris coming past him up the hill and Grand Crus challenging for second. I think I might go for the Straight Forecast here - if they all turn up then I can't see those three not being the first three past the post in some combination. I quite like the look of Captain Chris to win and Diamond Harry and Grands Crus in either order in behind him.
I think Captain Chris is the rock solid each way call in this contest but its a no bet for me. I'd be surprised if GC or CC don't win but there will be far better 2/1 and 5/1 shots in much less competitive races in future so gladly just sit back and watch a top quality race.
From a personal perspective the race has added spice as 2 of my 10 to follow run - Tidal Bay and Little Josh. Whilst this race is not the main target for either of them this season I will be looking for encouraging performance for their next races Grands Crus is a tremendously exciting horse and I hope he can take this. For me he is the only horse in the race with the "superstar quality" about him, the rest look exposed at the very top level. The horse for a place for me is course specialist Midnight Chase at 9/1.
The race looks like a real mine field to me. Everyone is talking up Grand Crus, but he looks a little susceptible to me. He may win it easily, but 2-1 doesn't look like value. In going over the rest of them, it is easy to find a reason why they can't win, so it's a race that probably shouldn't be targeted with great wads of cash. I don't know who will win, but I hope Tidal Bay runs ok.
All eyes will be on Grand Crus for obvious reasons but I'm more interested in how Captain Chris performs. He has developed jumping errors this season and it was only his engine that got him 3rd in the King George albeit a long way behind Kauto and Long Run. The gas was on that day from the moment the tapes went up, maybe the pace will be a little more sedate and Johnson is allowed to get more of a jumping rythym going, if he does he's a threat. Grand Crus would have to win, and win comfortably, to be considered a serious Gold Cup horse, I'm not convinced any of the others are up to winning this....
Well up to standard of recent years' events with two of the first five in the Gold Cup betting likely to line up. As has been stated in earlier posts I think if Grands Crus wins he goes 5/1 for big race (shorter if impressive). No win - RSA chase. Captain Chris could finish in first three and still go to the Gold Cup rather than the Ryanair. The only other runner I have considered for this race and the GC is The Minack however form seems dependent on (soft) going which he is unlikely to encounter on Saturday. Anyway, I am off to Koln on Friday morning so, after an early Saturday session with several glasses of Kolsch, I will watch Trials day in Wettburo Gosser on Luxemburger Strasse; ah heaven!!!
Good read gents, this forum is very good for this sort of race preview/opinion My twopenneth at this stage - Weights and measures so often prove critical in racing and I wonder if the weights are going to provide an interesting angle for this race. I think its worthwhile having a look at the conditions in full - "£100,000 guaranteed For 5yo+ Weights 5yo.10st 9lb; 6yo+ 11st Penalties after September 30th, 2010, a winner of a Class 3 weight-for-age chase or a Class 2 handicap chase 4lb; of a Class 2 weight-for-age chase or a Class 1 handicap chase 6lb; of a Class 1 weight-for-age chase10lb (half penalties for wins achieved in Novices' and Beginners' Chases in Great Britain and Ireland) Allowances mares 7lb Entries 13 pay £ 500 " This leaves - Carrying 10lbs - Master Of The Hall Carrying 6lbs - Carruthers, Little Josh, Diamond Harry, Midnight Chase, Time For Rupert, The Minack Carrying 5lbs - Captain Chris, Grands Crus and more importantly - Carrying 0lbs extra - Any Currency, Knockara Beau, The Sawyer and Tidal Bay Now, I know he is a monkey of the highest order and he doesn't like winning races and he didn't sparkle on his reappearance but Tidal Bay for me is the most talented of the non novices and he could be getting the maestro on his back for the first time. He is joint top rated with the BHA and gets 6lbs from the other top rated horse (Diamond Harry), and he should get a good pace to run at with some good galloping sorts likely to line up. If Tidal Bay is double figures on the day and has Ruby on top, then I will be having a big bet on the old boy to sparkle against a field of horses that apart from Grands Crus, lack a bit in true top quality.
NTD - don't dive in just yet, I've come unstuck a few times this year going each way on the big race only to find it cut up, 7 runners go and I finish 3rd - very frustrating ! May just be me talking through my pocket but I've learnt my lesson now but if there's a danger less than 8 will go Iwait until they're all in the parade ring before having my bet
Grizzly, I haven't checked but I am guessing it will be 3 places 1/5 odds at the minute and will remain that as its antepost still?
May I just say that it's been a long time since I had any GrandScrews, so there can only be one winner for me - based on a proven theory
Grands Crus is a false price at 2/1 and has to prove it yet against this class of opposition. I wouldn't be surprised if he hit the deck at a downhill fence-with his low, quick jumping. Personally I think Captain Chris is a spring horse and we haven't seen the best of him yet. Price of 9/2 is fair enough, and he's my choice. Midnight Chase will make a bold bid to stretch them but would prefer really good ground.
Won't b having a bet until the day and like u say is like to see 9 runners at least in the morning just incase , I think we've all been done by 7 runners , thing is even b4 the race you know that the one you back will finish 3rd just to rub it in .
