After another successful Ante Post punt on Our Jonathon it is time to turn ones attentions to The Cambridgeshire. This race used to be a very strong 'trends' race but Credit Swap (without doubt a plot) blew one of the main ones out of the water! We are looking for ahorse that is: 3 or 4yo ideally but not 5 or 7! weight wise 8.1 to 9.3 rated 83 to 102 However the main and strongest remaining trend is to have won over the unusual distance of 1m 1f or won over both 1m and 1m 2f!! This takes out many of the field yet again! I have narrowed the field down to 3 but one i may back on the day for win purposes only is PROPONEMENT who deserves to win a big handicap like this and the Charlton yard are having a good season. The 3 i have narrowed it down to are: ALBAQUAA who has proved himself in this grade and over the course, small yard who can get them ready to win. I can see this one getting well supported, i've already taken 25s EW. CIRCUMVENT from the Paul Cole yard is another to have won over this course and will love the fast ground but will also handle softer conditions should the rains arrive. The 33s on offer looked too good so he was my 2nd bet. Final selection but i have not backed as yet and probably wont is PINTURA. Hits all the trends but i just wonder that he may fall short HOWEVER if the rain arrives and the going is soft or worse he will become a big bet. That's my thoughts and as always i look forward to the comments and selections of others
10 days or so ago I was very hopeful that Roger Charlton would have run Al Kazeem in this heat as I believe he would have been thrown in. Not to be though as he ran in the ‘Arc Trial’ at Newbury instead. His run in this confirmed, in my view, that he was indeed thrown in and old boy Charlton could have made a rare mistake. Unless, of course, he thinks his other entries (Proponent & Cry Fury) are even better in! No real strong views at all but the 3YOs duo of Maraheb and Questioning are both still improving and could be ahead of the handicapper. Very hard race though with more plots than in an Agatha Christie novel contained therein. Meanwhile, anyone contemplating an ‘Autumn Double’ bet (this contest and the Cesarwitch) needs to bear in mind that the forum’s favourite trainer, Mr Henderson looks to have the latter prize well within his grasp. The fact that ‘King’ Kieren is provisionally booked on the yard second string says it all! Wouldn’t be at all surprised if, both horses are fit and well, Veiled and Sentry Duty provide the great man with a 1-2.
Sir Barney I think bets like the Spring Double and Autumn Double are part of our racing heritage and would suggest a competition amongst the forum members to try and get the Autumn Double up is a cracking idea. I will start a thread which hopefully Ron can put a sticky on for a few days. Gary I have backed Circumvent a few times this season as I was sure he had a win in him. Unfortunately I wasn't on him when he did finally win at Goodwood the other day at a stonking 14/1 (over 9F!!). I assume the handicapper will put him up for that win off a mark of 95, so it looks like he'll be up to 100 ish which may just ruin his chances in the old Cambridgeshire. Or does he get in off 95?? I think I shall wait for final decs before making a selection.
Until this year, the Cambridgeshire was on the Saturday of the Arc meeting, so in recent years I haven’t seen the race as I’ve been in France. Looking at the entries, there are half a dozen that owe me money from earlier failures this season so the winner will be the 25/1 shot that I change my mind about and don’t back whilst the 10/1 chance that I do go with will be second. At the moment Club Oceanic would be where I would be looking, assuming that it is an intended runner. I won’t be getting involved ante post so I can wait and see the draw and what the ground is like on Saturday; and I never touch the Cesarewitch as it is frequently won by some National Hunt plodder that is warming up for the winter campaign.
Roger Charlton has a decent chance of landing the double himself - 2 leading fancies in the Cambridgeshire plus Keys in the Ces
Oddy, it wouldn’t surprise me if after the Ces Keys was ‘transferred’ to Mr Henderson. He already trains for the owners and unless they believe he has Group pretensions would imagine they would waNt to get him over hurdles ASAP.
Another bloody hard handicap to try and solve! I am very sweet on FENCING in the Royal Lodge on Saturday I like LIGHTNING PEARL for the Cheveley Park- made light work of a very decent experienced field in Ireland recently, seemingly running up to a pretty damn good standard. I think Best Terms will be beaten and watch out for a GAMILATI bounce back if the ground stays firmer If I was Ante-Post betting on the Cambridgeshire, I wouldn't mind a dabble on MAQARAAT who has acquitted himself very well (esp at Group 3 level at Chester) and dotted up in a maiden in June. I wonder if he's been put away for this. Went very well fresh this season, 1 L 2nd behind Derby runner Ocean War. I like him at Betfairs 20/1
Nice article GDC which after your success with Our Jonathan will no doubt be eyed by many with great Interest. I usually look for an unexposed horse that i feel will be better than a handicapper next year. Cry Fury certainly falls into this catagory except for his last run which was very dissappointing. I also like Red Gulch who i think is still under the radar a little as his victories have not attracted too much attentopn but i think there is more to come, so at this stage two bets for me. Red Gulch 20-1 EW Cry Fury 10-1 WIN
Blue i have no qualms that very few follow my 'trends' selections as so many cannot stand them. They can be quite successful mind, a few to name: Derby: Workforce Big HCap: Evens and Odds St Leger: Arctic Cosmos Arc: Workforce St Leger: Masked Marvel Ayr Gold Cup: Our Jonathon Dubawi Gold getting 2nd for a superb FC in the Guineas was nice touch Prohibit winning was also awesome Don't ask about the losers, for some reason they have been erased from memory Have a couple of nice bets EW at massive prices on Nathaniel for the Arc but realistically a place is his best chance I only put my thoughts down on here for a laugh and to give people summat to think about for the big races mate
'Have a couple of nice bets EW at massive prices on Nathaniel for the Arc but realistically a place is his best chance' - why is that Gary? I'm fairly sweet on Nathaniel in that race. Already backed Meandre and So You Think but only for a tenner each so will be looking on the day and 3 year olds are where you need to look. There's not many in there that I think have the scope of Nathaniel.
Toppy = from Ger Lyons twitter feed the other day. I thought it was pretty funny: 'gerlyonsracing Ger Lyons Racing Had a call from UK press man, Why did you supplement LP for the Ch Park? He asked.Cos I had a **** load of €€ to get rid of, I replied! Knob'
LG: Rounders: I only backed Nathaniel because i thought he had the ability to beat Workforce at Sandown and new the price would tumble if he did. I am not totally sure he will enjoy the hustle and bustle of the Arc and as i backed Workforce last year i will do so agin this season also as horses regularly return to the Arc and run well ala Youmzain! I will be shouting Nathaniel home also and the season Mr Gosden has had who knows
